The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 26 November 2014

Air Date: 
November 26, 2014

Photo, above: The brick kiln in Kot Radha Kishan of Kasur district, 50 kilometres from Lahore.

Pakistani Christian Couple burnt alive in Kasur Punjab / Posted by Christians in Pakistan on November 04, 2014     KASUR, PAKISTAN: A couple was burnt alive in a brick kiln in the outskirts of Kasure, Geo News reported. Sources said the incident took place in Kot Radha Kishan. Police sources said Shahzad and his wife Shama Bibi came to Chak 59 for their livelihood where the owner of the Kiln Yousuf Gujjar put them in a room.  He put different allegation on them over non-payment of advance money and gathered villagers. Later, the infuriated villagers through them in the brick kiln and set them alive. See Hour 2, Block C,  Sadanand Dhume, AEI, on Pakistan’s Blasphemy Impasse.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts: Gordon Chang of Forbes.com and Dr. David M. Livingston of The Space Show

Hour One

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, full political scientist at the Rand Corporation, in re:  [doc below on China and Iran relations] and  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2846176/China-building-island-large-airfield-disputed-south-sea-waters-satellite-images-workers-expanding-archipelago-military-bases.html

Chinese will create an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) ; establishment of an air base on contested land in the South China Sea is expansive – many call it aggression – more than those of any other regional actor. Preparatory to establishing an ADIZ over he entire South China Sea?  Over the whole Western Pacific? Washington not pleased; doesn’t seem to have a plan yet. Maybe a "cost-imposition strategy+|"  in response to China's salami-slicing expansion.  Most neighbors and observers consider China's deeds to be destabilizing, Airstrip is to serve the PLA Air Force.  Spratleys form a vast polka-dotted landscape.  Beijing has sent signals to Malaysia demanding that Kuala Lumpur stay quiet.  Sentiment in KL is not in accord.  Note that China's reaction anent the missing Malaysia airliner was so harsh and off-putting, immediately after China had sent its navy to Malaysian atolls, that KL policy may move Westward.

Why Doesn’t China Cooperate More Proactively with U.S. Efforts to Counter Iran’s Nuclear Program?  By Scott W. Harold / Center for American Progress | Roles and Responsibilities Beyond the Asia-Pacific Region /  Few problems rank as high on the Obama administration’s list of policy priorities as stopping Iran’s uranium enrichment program, but developing a positive and constructive relationship with China is perhaps among those that do rank as highly. For its part, building a new type of great power relations, or NTGPR, and preserving a modicum of stability in the Middle East are two leading foreign policy goals for Chinese President Xi Jinping. In light of this, it is puzzling that the two countries are seemingly not building much mutual trust on the basis of their shared opposition to Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. Why doesn’t China do more to proactively support its stated policy of nuclear nonproliferation? Wouldn’t such an approach allow China to demonstrate good faith and build the strategic trust that any NTGPR with the United States requires? And wouldn’t it help to preserve stability in a part of the world that China is increasingly reliant upon for energy resources yet is riven with sectarian conflicts, most notably between Iran and its neighbors, U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Israel? Explaining the puzzle of why Chinese cooperation on Iran often appears reluctant can provide important insight into China’s overall foreign policy priorities, as well as its policymaking process and the deep challenges the United States faces as it strives to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon while at the same time building a cooperative relationship with China.

This essay argues that two key factors explain why China’s cooperation on Iran has been grudging and why this is unlikely to change in the future. First, key Chinese foreign and defense policy thinkers’ core analytical framework is one that perceives the United States as the greatest strategic threat to Chinese security with all other challenges perceived through the lens of how they relate to managing relations with the United States. Second, Chinese policymakers’ growing anxieties about energy security and the country’s dependence on oil imports from the Middle East constitute a separate set of concerns. These considerations trump any worries about horizontal proliferation and/or conflicts induced by Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. These factors are described below.

Chinese thinkers frequently describe the United States as having a containment policy toward their country and believe that the goal of a hegemonic superpower such as the United States is to keep potential rivals weak and off balance. China and the United States have fought two proxy wars in Korea and in Vietnam,

and the U.S. alliance system in East Asia has traditionally been oriented in large part toward defending against China. Additionally, the United States maintains alliances and defense relationships with many of the most powerful states in the Middle East, including Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. In a geo- strategically important region for global energy flows, Iran is one of the few countries that the United States does not enjoy a close relationship with and therefore could not use to isolate China in the event of a conflict. For these reasons of great power competition, Chinese thinkers tend to interpret Iran’s alienation from and opposition to the leading international role of the United States as a neutral to positive factor in international society.

Separately from this great power competition-based logic, Chinese security analysts are also mindful of the fact that, even if it is not actively promoting democratization within China at any given moment, the United States stands symbolically for freedom, democracy, and human rights and aspires to see these liberal ideals take hold worldwide, including in China. As a consequence, the United States, merely by virtue of its existence, in some ways represents the greatest threat to the ruling status of the Chinese Communist Party: the notion that the rule of law, human rights, and democratic accountability should normatively be the end goal of all societies. By contrast, Iran does not promote these values, nor do its leaders characterize China as a threat. As such, cooperation with Iran makes a good deal of sense since it can be counted on to provide an additional ancient civilizational voice countering U.S. and Western advocacy of values deemed anathema to the Chinese communist political system.

Furthermore, as a matter of policy, China itself has been under U.S. and international sanctions for much of its existence, including most recently having fallen under an arms embargo since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Having suffered both the material privation associated with being sanctioned, as well as the loss of face associated with being under foreign embargo, Chinese analysts are highly uncomfortable with legitimating international economic sanctions as a tool of compellence. Rather than seeing economic sanctions as effective sources of leverage over foreign actors’ behaviors, Chinese analysts tend to characterize sanctions as a technical solution to a political problem, likely to fail and more likely to harden resolve and make the ultimate resolution of a dispute more difficult. In their place, Chinese observers tend to advise continued diplomacy, dialogue, and negotiations, even when such an approach does not appear likely to affect a counterpart’s ultimate calculus of whether or not to proceed upon a highly risky and destabilizing path such as the one Iran has chosen.

Second, Chinese observers tend to believe that Iran’s role as a source of oil and gas imports means that it is a critical link in China’s quest for energy security. China’s energy import dependency continues to grow with every passing year despite efforts by the central government to develop alternative, renewable sources of energy and to lower the energy required to produce . . .

With Iran providing approximately 8 percent to 10 percent of China’s oil imports in recent years, many believed that China simply could not afford to aggressively or proactively cooperate with the P5+1 sanctions regime. Yet, as Cai Penghong of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies correctly predicted in mid- 2012, China needs access to the Western financial sector more than it needs Iranian oil.1 Sure enough, between 2012 and 2013, China’s official imports of Iranian oil plummeted as Western sanctions took hold and Chinese reductions in oil procurement were required in order to win sanctions waivers from the United States. (see Figure 3)

This, however, sets up a separate question: If China is complying with international sanctions designed to present Iran with a clear choice between uranium enrichment and economic survival, why isn’t it leading to greater trust between the United States and China?

China's growing oil import dependency  The primary reason is because China’s reductions in lifting oil from Iran have come not as a consequence of proactive Chinese cooperation but rather in spite of Chinese actions. U.S. financial- and banking-sector sanctions, together with the European cutoff of international shipping insurance, make it almost impossible for China to either pay Iran for oil or to ship it back home. However, despite these not inconsequential obstacles, there has been a large amount of credible evidence that China has sought to buy Iranian oil through deposits held in escrow accounts in Chinese banks, to acquire it through barter trade, to insure its own domestic very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, to transport it, and to procure additional amounts through smuggling.2 Additionally, there is evidence that China has sought other ways to offset the impact of the sanctions regime on Iran through measures such as dramatically increasing its procurement of Iranian fuel oil, a category of goods not subject to international sanctions, and expanding its purchases of Iranian steel.3 Further calling into question China’s commitment to the P5+1 process, Chinese naval vessels arrived at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in late September 2014 to carry out joint exercises with the Iranian navy just weeks ahead of a key deadline for Iranian compliance with the denuclearization process, leading some international observers to wonder what sort of signal China was trying to send the Iranian leadership and the countries imposing sanctions.

As a consequence of the activities described above, past research on China’s relations with Iran have often described Chinese policy as “opportunistic,” reflecting Beijing’s desire to play a “dual game” of opposing Iran’s nuclear ambitions in words while taking actions that reduce the pressure on Tehran to forego uranium enrichment in practice. China’s approach appears most credibly explained by a combination of concerns related to its perceived geostrategic competition with the United States and its leaders’ assessments of the value of Iran for energy security. Scholars of the relationship have characterized China’s approach as a “balancing act” or a “tightrope walk.” Beijing is generally seen as wanting to have its cake and eat it too: China wants to buy as much oil from Iran as possible and to invest in its energy and infrastructure sectors while avoiding condemnation for under- cutting Iran’s isolation, widely seen as the only hope of raising the cost of pursuing nuclear weapons capability so high that the country’s leaders agree to back away from their quest to enrich uranium.

In conclusion, despite the risks of missing an important opportunity to operationalize the NTGPR, Chinese policy in the near future is unlikely to exhibit substantially more proactive efforts to cooperate with the United States in confronting Iran over its proliferation activities. Geostrategic competition and a history of poor relations with the United States, as well as a continued and growing concern over energy security, are likely to result in Chinese nonproliferation policy being best characterized as “reluctant restraint.”9 If even such low-hanging fruit as cooperating proactively to counter nuclear proliferation to a leading state sponsor of terrorism whose actions carry substantial risk of destabilizing a key region for Chinese energy security cannot be harvested under the NTGPR, it may suggest that operationalizing this concept will prove harder and less promising than Chinese policy has suggested and U.S. policymakers have hoped. As such, U.S. policymakers should be on guard against possible Chinese efforts to dampen or undercut the international sanctions regime on Iran and should clarify to their Chinese counterparts that such moves would be regarded as extremely unhelpful with consequences for overall U.S.-China relations. U.S. officials should continue to actively explore ways to raise the costs to China of noncompliance while sweetening the value of cooperation by holding out the promise that such actions could help lend credibility to a key Chinese policy framework for U.S.-China relations.   Scott Warren Harold is a full political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Endnotes

1 Cai Penghong, “U.S. Sanctions on Iran and Their Impact on China,” Contemporary International Relations 22 (2) (2012): 74–85, available at http://www.eastviewpress. com/Files/CIR_3_2012_US%20Sanctions.pdf.

4 Thomas Erdbrink and Chris Buckley, “China and Iran to Conduct Joint Naval Exercises in the Persian Gulf,” The New York Times, September 21, 2014, available at http:// www.nytimes.com/2014/09/22/world/middleeast/ china-and-iran-to-conduct-joint-naval-exercises-in-the- persian-gulf.html?_r=0.

5 Scott W. Harold, “Opportunistic Cooperation under Constraints: Non-Proliferation, Energy Trade, and the Evolution of Chinese Policy towards Iran,” Chinese Journal of International Politics (forthcoming).

2 Henny Sender, “Iran accepts renminbi for crude oil,”
The Financial Times, May 7, 2012, available at http:// www.ft.com/cms/s/2/63132838-732d-11e1-9014- 00144feab49a.html#axzz3HjWqJYPi; Alistair Bull, “U.S.
imposes sanctions on covert Iran oil-shipping network,”
Reuters, March 14, 2013, available at http://www. reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-usa-iran-sanctions- idUSBRE92D11520130314; Isaac Arnsdorf and Jasmine
Wang, “China Oil Tanker Seen at Iran Port for First Time since EU Ban,” Bloomberg, March 27, 2013, available at   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-27/china- pdf. oil-tanker-seen-at-iran-port-for-first-time-since-eu-ban.

html; Adam Kredo, “A Well-Oiled Smuggling Machine,” The Washington Free Beacon, April 17, 2013, available at http://freebeacon.com/national-security/a-well- oiled-smuggling-machine/.

3 Wayne Ma and Tennille Tracy, “Sanctions Gap Allows China to Import Iranian Oil,” The Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2013, available at http://online.wsj.com/ articles/SB10001424127887324619504579026333 611696094; Reuters, “Trade Allies Throw Lifeline to Iran’s Steel Sector,” May 3, 2013, available at http:// www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/iran-steel-trade- idUSL6N0DJ3OR20130503.

7 Jon B. Alterman, “China’s Balancing Act in the Gulf ” (Washington: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2013), available at http://csis.org/files/publica- tion/130821_Alterman_ChinaGulf_Web.pdf.

8 Michael D. Swaine, “Beijing’s Tightrope Walk on Iran,” China Leadership Monitor 33 (2010): 1–19, available at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/CLM33MS.pdf.

9 Evan S. Medeiros, Reluctant Restraint: The Evolution of China’s Non-Proliferation Policies and Practices, 1980- 2004 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2007).

6 John W. Garver, “Is China Playing a Dual Game in Iran?” The Washington Quarterly 34 (1) (2011): 75–88, available at http://csis.org/files/publication/twq11wintergarver.

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Bruce Bechtol, professor at Angelo State University and author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era, in re:  North Korean kid disappears in Paris. Executed on the spot? DPRK has wiled him back?  he knows his life is in imminent danger so he split?  We see that the purges (murders) connected to Jang Sung-taek is not finished.  Note that purges show weakness and turmoil in a regime.   What we see is that North Korean agents, killers, wet-work ops, are roaming Europe and probably North America. Kim Jong-eun's aunt, imo [Kim Kyong-hui] is said to have committed suicide; was Jang Sung-taek's wife, said to have had severe alcohol problems.  She's been invisible since her husband was executed.  http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/search1/2603000000.html?cid=AEN20141119008151315

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com & author, Russians in Space, in re:  Roskosmos is what remains of the US-Russian ISS manned space program.  New Russian space station is very old[?]  Idea returned to be considered. meanwhile, the NASA administration evinces sang-froid beyond normal logic.  From an engineering POV, Russian participation is essential: orbit correction  If Roskosmos withdraws from the ISS, it'll probably have to be closed down, although there  could be some sort of commercial agreement where Russian services can be rented or bought.   Recall that early on Russia ran Mir along with  . Of course, this is a trial balloon by Russia in response to Western [provocations].   Further, Russian economy is in trouble because of the dwindling price of oil.  . . .  Future space station can be at higher latitudes, can be at 60 degrees, more favorable to Russia.  Angara test-flight rocket this month, 25 Dec?  Have started modular construction of Angara rocket family.  Orbital/SpaceX accident made a lot of news in Russia.

Independent Russia Space Station Could be Ready by 2020: Report  In this image provided by NASA the International Space Station is shown with the backdrop of Earth. (AP Photo/NASA) . . .    Russia to Deploy Its Own Space Station In 2017: Report
   Russia working on plans for its own space station, say industry ...
   Russia to Set up Own Orbital Space Station to Gain Edge Over ISS
     Out of ISS: Russia going solo with space station?
   Russia to start modular assembly of Angara rockets in Siberia
  Russia's advanced rockets of the Angara family will be manufactured at the assembly plant in the Siberian ...
 Russia's new heavy-lifter rolled to launch pad
 Spaceflight Now-Nov 20, 2014
The heavy-lift Angara 5 rocket is due to replace Russia's Proton ... the Angara 5 is also slated to compete for commercial satellite launches on . . . 

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Sid Perkins, Science magazine, in re:  Lakes! Landsat has been orbiting for decades; people now have gone back to datamine old info, found 8,500 cloud-free images from 1997  too 2003, used software to find bodies of water 2,000 sq meters or greater.   Excluding the Caspian, Earth has 117 million lakes. Carbon stored; methane released annually, etc.  Warehouse discovery (Maryland and North Carolina): an old satellite, Nimbus, NASA's first envtl sats from mid-Sixties, were to monitor clouds (pix every 90 seconds). Nimbus 1 from 1964, orbital problems. Picture taken of a monitor  that was a picture of data being broadcast from space.  Data was stored for 45 years; then analyzed by a Boulder group, Cooperative Inst for Research in Envtl Sciences, which extracted and gave us info eight years older than any other recorded on the matter.  http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2014/08/world-o-lakes    http://news.sciencemag.org/physics/2014/08/confirmed-some-raindrops-fall-faster-they-should

Hour Two

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Harry Kazianis, managing editor of the National Interest and a non-resident senior fellow at the China Policy Institute,  in re: Democracy tourism. The gathering of a vote in Taiwan, a well-functioning democracy.  Municipal posts: the tourists are people from Mainland China who want to see how it actually works – the Nov 29 vote is important. A huge wave vote will occur in Taiwan, a challenge to the KMT (KuoMinTang, Chiang's rigid party); true democracy is infectious. If Chinese people sign up for a democracy tour, what happens when they get home?  Taiwan is, like all others, a messy democracy; it’s real.  This is how walls far, how regimes start to break apart. How will Beijing remove these notions from their citizens's minds? Note social media permeating China.  Every post in Taiwan will be decided on Saturday except the presidency and the legislature.  In Mainland just before the Olympics, people cared not a whit for Olympics, wanted to know about the American election,  Beijing's view is that you can't trust the people, think that the mob will take over. Anxiety on Asia.  n recent years, Taiwan an Mainland have grown closer; at he same time, Beijing has used this to leverage Taiwan into t he Mainland sphere – which makes Taiwanese quite nervous.  Taiwanese have been able to express themselves openly since 2004, perhaps for the first time. They don’t want the Chinese Communist Party to take over.  Ten per cent of Taiwanese people think they're Chinese; all other do not, and do not at all like the bogus "One country, two systems" of Hong Kong, which works not.  Xi says, "This can’t last."  Ooops.    http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/1126/Taiwan-election-Wild-wooly-and-partly-a-referendum-on-China    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-30194773

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Nitin Gokhale, independent security analyst and author of Beyond NJ 9842: The Saichen Saga, in re: Brahmaputra River (the god Brahma + Son of ; ergo this is the only male river in India); China is trying to control water supply to India and Bangladesh – in fact, to a big percentage of the human population.  This is only the first of five planned dams.  China has no satisfactory sharing agreement in place with India.  We expect that with the other four dams water flow to India will be affected.  Since Tibet is a failed economy, no thanks to China, why does China intend to create 2,000 megawatts? Not for Tibet's use – it’s for something else; Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, all will be badly affected.  China wanted to be in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation; is an observer. China wants ot bad relations with India, but urgently wants to intimidate India, incl with incursions into Ladakh, et al. China wants to push the Indians around and India is supposed to comply. This ain't gonna happen.

 China builds hydroelectric dam on Brahmaputra in Tibet, India fears flash floods. China has announced that it has completed a major hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra, called Yarlung Zangbo, in Tibet. The dam is bound to enhance fears in India and Bangladesh about flash floods and related risks like landslides involving lives of millions of people downstream.

India has repeatedly expressed concern about the dangers of damming the Brahmaputra, one of the strongest Himalayan rivers, in upstream areas in Tibet. China has routinely responded saying its plans were restricted to run-off-the-river dams focussed on generating electricity, which posed little danger. Indian officials have so far been satisfied by Beijing's explanations, not realizing China was actually building a massive project that would affect the river's flow into Arunachal Pradesh and other parts of the northeastern region of India, sources said.

Announcing that Tibet's largest hydropower station had become partly operational on Sunday, Beijing said it would be useful in "harnessing the rich water resources of the Yarlung Zangbo river to empower the development of the electricity-strapped region." The first section of the $1.5 billion Zangmu Hydropower Station, which is over 3,300m above sea level on the "roof of the world", went into operation Sunday afternoon. Five other sections are due for completion no later than next year, it said. The Chinese government on Sunday described it as a "huge project, which straddles the middle reaches of the roaring Yarlung Zangbo river, [which] will have power capacity of 510,000kW after its four-year construction."  . . .  [more]

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Sadanand Dhume, AEI, in re:   Pakistan’s Blasphemy Impasse, where Sadanand argues that Pakistan's problem isn't just a harsh blasphemy law. It's the idea of blasphemy, itself.  A young Christian couple were beaten to death for the presumption that they maltreated a copy of the Quran, which the family denies. "If you’re found guilty of insulting Islam or Quran, or the Prophet, you can be sentenced to death." Worse, a mob often attacks people before any trial.  Most targets belong to religious minorities.  India nad Pakistan are so different in theses matters: India was founded as a secular republic, 80% Hindu with no state religion. Pakistan was founded as an Islamic republic – 98% Muslim.  Has gone through a process of deepening Islamicization in the past thirty years. Horrific incidents become ore common.   Deobandi school & Barelvi stream  of Islam  . . . an accused person said to have disrespected a book.  Army has used clerics to strengthen its own position in society.  Many Muslim societies are struggling with this question – it’s blasphemous even to discuss the issue. Does Pakistan have  future? Yes, probably in the long term. Recently four polio workers were murdered: they were thought by fundamentalists to be sterilizing people. 

Pakistan’s Blasphemy Impasse, Even for a nation inured to brutality, last week’s murder of a young Christian couple by a violent mob stands out for its sheer horror. About 1,000 angry villagers in Pakistan’s Punjab province beat to a pulp 26-year-old Shahzad Masih and his pregnant 24-year-old wife, Shama, before burning them in a brick kiln. The murdered couple’s family denies that they had committed their alleged crime of burning a copy of the Quran.

As news of the atrocity rippled across the world, Pakistan’s small but brave band of liberal commentators reacted with the familiar mix of outrage and sorrow. They bemoaned the violence, only the latest in a long string of vigilante attacks. Too often these attacks have been fatal, and too often they have targeted defenseless religious minorities. Many blame the toxic legacy of Gen. Zia ul-Haq, the Islamist-friendly dictator who ruled Pakistan from 1977 to 1988 and who made blasphemy punishable by death. Critics of the law say it implicitly encourages mob violence by suggesting that blasphemers deserve to die.

Pakistanis who challenge their country’s barbaric blasphemy law ought to be applauded for their courage. Yet their efforts are doomed to fail. The current debate in Pakistan only underscores the difficulty in making any real progress on this thorny issue. Unless the country finds a way to discuss blasphemy itself—and not merely quibble over the appropriate way to punish it—religious conservatives who sanction violence will remain on the ascendant.

Take the famous case of Salmaan Taseer, the former governor of Punjab. In January 2011, Taseer’s bodyguard assassinated him using a machine gun for daring to speak up on behalf of Asia Bibi, an illiterate Christian woman sentenced to death for allegedly insulting the prophet Muhammad. Large crowds in the garrison town of Rawalpindi hailed Taseer’s killer as a hero and showered him with rose petals.

Given Taseer’s undoubted courage and the price he paid for it, Pakistan’s liberals have adopted him as a patron saint of sorts. But what exactly were the views for which Taseer paid with his life, and for which his fellow liberals risk theirs today? The former governor had a problem with the death penalty for so-called blasphemy, but he never questioned the idea of blasphemy itself—that words or acts offending Islamic sensitivities belong to a special category of crime worthy of punishment.

Indeed, the idea of punishing blasphemers is intimately tied to the movement that carved Pakistan out of Muslim-majority areas of British India in 1947.

Some two decades earlier, an illiterate Muslim carpenter had murdered a Hindu publisher for printing a saucy book attacking the prophet Muhammad’s personal life. Prominent leaders of what would become the Pakistan movement, including Muhammad Iqbal, the national poet, hailed the murderer. The man was even defended in court by Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan’s eventual founder. To stem the interfaith tensions sparked by the murder, British colonial authorities curbed freedom of speech by introducing a milder version of Pakistan’s current blasphemy law, which remains valid to this day in neighboring India.

The matter bears not only the weight of history but also religion. Clerics from Pakistan’s majority Barelvi stream of Islam—widely regarded as more tolerant than the rival Deobandi school associated with the Taliban—are among the loudest defenders of the country’s blasphemy laws. Taseer’s killer was a Barelvi Muslim. According to a 2011 poll by the Pew Research Center, three out of four Pakistanis agree that the country needs blasphemy laws to protect Islam.

All this ought to deepen our appreciation of those Pakistanis willing to appeal for moderation. But these facts also underscore just how unlikely they are to succeed. Most modern societies do not recognize thought crimes. In the U.S., for instance, the idea of even fining someone for damaging a book or mocking a religious figure would be preposterous. If it’s done well enough, the mockery may even end up on Broadway—like the wildly successful, The Book of Mormon.

Pointing out this gulf in public discourse about religion is not the same as expecting the average Pakistani to start standing up for the Enlightenment. But it does suggest that the prospects for reforming Pakistan’s blasphemy laws remain extremely bleak. For now, the weight of history, religion and public opinion all lean toward those who think you should be punished for insulting a book. Until at least a sizeable minority of Pakistanis find this absurd, the deaths of Shahzad and Shama Masih will only mark yet another gruesome milestone on a long and ugly road.

Photo, below: (CNN) – The Lebanese singer and actress Sabah, one of the Arab world's most prolific entertainers with a career spanning more than six decades, died Wednesday in Beirut, Lebanon's state-run National News Agency reported. She was 87. Born Jeanette Feghali in Lebanon in 1927, Sabah recorded some 3,000 songs and acted in more than 80 Arab films, according to Lebanon's Daily Star newspaper. 

The popularity of Sabah, born to a Christian family, transcended religious lines in a country nearly torn apart by a civil war between Christian and Muslim militias from 1975 to 1990. "Lebanon and the Arab world lost a valuable artist with the demise of the great diva Sabah, whose departure from this world turned a page on our bright cultural heritage," Prime Minister Tammam Salam, a Muslim, said in a statement, according to the Daily Star.  Former President Michel Suleiman, a Christian, hailed Sabah as a performer who represented Lebanon's national and humanitarian values abroad, according to NNA. And Lebanese Druze leader and lawmaker Walid Jumblatt said that with her death, "an entire golden era of Lebanon's past comes to an end," the Daily Star reported.  Sabah's career took her around the globe, including to New York, where she performed as a guest soloist as part of a concert that rented out Carnegie Hall's main auditorium in May 1970.  Married at least seven times, she is survived by a son and a daughter, Lebanese news media reported.

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 2, Block D:  Abheek Bhattacharya, Heard on the Street WSJ in Hong Kong, in re: [intro and outro music of Sabah, a beloved Lebanese singer who sadly has left us in the last day.] China's economy is stagnant, so it can’t be using all the oil it’s buying.  For strategic reserve?  China has a massive refineries complex; refine it into diesel or fuel oil and then resell it to Asian markets.  Parallel with its importation of iron ore. Oil can become LNG and be exported – but . . .  when the price of oil is down, so is the price of natgas. China is happy to buy cheaper natgas.  Who gets hit the most: start with Australians, bldg some of he most expensive LNG processing, and Vl. Putin, whose national income is now much lowered.  Shale gas in China, not so good. However, China doesn't have the infrastructure to pull shale oil from the ground. US has property rights, which homeowners will sell; and we have a  wildcatting culture willing t jump in. All China has are Sinopec and    Summer 2014: megadeal for Russia to sell gas from Eastern Siberia – but it’ll go from Western Siberia, which Russia wants but China wants to cut the price.  Russia is beholden to China, as the main buyer. 

The drop in price has attracted Chinese buyers into the crude-oil market, naturally exciting investors that the world's second biggest consumer of oil is stepping up demand. Yet the trick is to understand why the Chinese are buying -- and my argument is that it's for their massive refinery complex that doesn't always serve local demand, but rather floods the world with surplus diesel and gasoline. That isn't a sustainable trend.  (China's state oil producers, spoiled like every resource extractor in the past decade by rising prices, are also not looking pretty. However, PetroChina, the biggest of these producers, is surprisingly starting to be insulated. This is the best reform story in China this year, where this company is learning some discipline even as the broader oil market turns south.)

Oil is such an important commodity that it affects whole other industries, starting with its cousin natural gas. Suppliers of liquefied natural gas are panicking, because their product, linked to oil prices, now plummets in value. Russia, one of the world's biggest suppliers of gas, is running into China's arms to secure a second mega natural-gas deal -- at terms probably be favourable to China.

But cheap oil is good for other industries. Tire makers are having a great time, especially in India. You'd think falling oil prices are terrible for the oil tankers that ferry the black stuff (so do most investors), but turns out they're positive.  Cheap oil is also good for India's broader economy, helping reduce oil imports and inflation, the two factors that made India look so scary last year. Yet on inflation, it's important to remember that the disease is deep seated in the economy. The clamor has begun for central-bank governor Raghuram Rajan to start cutting interest rates, but he would be wiser if he kept rates high enough to cure the disease completely.

Hour Three

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder, by Bret Stephens (1 of 4)

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder, by Bret Stephens (2 of 4)

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder, by Bret Stephens (3 of 4)

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder, by Bret Stephens (4 of 4)

Hour Four

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: White House struggles to find Hagel successor Chuck Hagel out as defense secretary      Report: Chuck Hagel Clashed with Susan Rice before He Was Fired  (1 of 2)

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: White House struggles to find Hagel successor Chuck Hagel out as defense secretary      Report: Chuck Hagel Clashed with Susan Rice before He Was Fired (2 of 2)

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re:   “Obama’s Amnesty Problem":  Unilateral presidential action is not the proper response to the thorny issue of immigration.  Last week, President Obama delivered a controversial address to the nation on the contentious subject of immigration. In it, he outlined his plan to grant amnesty to some 3.5 million illegal immigrants in the United States. Recent polling data suggests that the President is sailing in choppy waters. Democrats have remained relatively silent on the matter. Republicans, meanwhile, have decried his unilateral executive action, which bypasses Congress, and are now considering the political and legal options to either block or slow down the President’s initiative. The President could have operated more smoothly on this issue by using prudence and discretion . . .   [more]  (1 of 2)

Wednesday  26 November  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re:   “Obama’s Amnesty Problem":  Unilateral presidential action is not the proper response to the thorny issue of immigration.  Last week, President Obama delivered a controversial address to the nation on the contentious subject of immigration. In it, he outlined his plan to grant amnesty to some 3.5 million illegal immigrants in the United States. Recent polling data suggests that the President is sailing in choppy waters. Democrats have remained relatively silent on the matter. Republicans, meanwhile, have decried his unilateral executive action, which bypasses Congress, and are now considering the political and legal options to either block or slow down the President’s initiative. The President could have operated more smoothly on this issue by using prudence and discretion . . .   [more]  (2 of 2)

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From British Pakistan Christians By Shamim Masih

    People of good conscience are urged to continue signing the our on-line petition, which will be submitted to the Pakistani Government, and again to 10 Downing Street on New Years Day 2015:  (click here)

The family of Christian couple Shama and Shahzad Bibi are still reeling from the horrific crime that tragically took their loved ones away.

Shama Bibi, 24, and husband Shahzad Masih, 26 were burnt alive in the brick kiln in Kot Radha Kishan of Kasur district, 50 kilometres from Lahore.

 The eldest son of the couple who witnessed the horrendous murder of his parents, said that, 

“very early in the morning, the supervisor (Munshi) along with a few other men, came to house and took my parents with him, we were so scared. They started beating them with sticks and slapping them hard, so we started weeping and ran after our parents.  Soon after my uncle, Iqbal Masih, [Shahzad's brother] came out of his house to inquire about the incident.  They didn't listen to him and locked up our parents in a nearby room, all us children kept on weeping and we remained with our uncle in his house."

After a while he witnessed, “Many people were gathering and they were equipped with big iron rods and sticks in their hands. They tore my parents’ clothes off and started bashing them.  They hit them on the head, legs, back, anywhere that they could reach, beating them so severely, they couldn’t stand up.  There was blood everywhere. The mob threw their bodies into the fire of the brick kiln, shouting no-one could stop them, they were shouting at and hitting other Christians too."

All four of Shahzad’s brothers locked themselves in their houses for the fear of receiving the same fate as their brother and sister-in-law, as the mob were extremely angry, shouting that they would burn all of his relatives living in the local area.  They threatened to burn the other Christians’ houses in Village Chack no.59.  Local Christians were terrified, knowing that, had an attack been instigated, local police officials would not have reached the village in time.

Iqbal Masih said, “I was not aware of the incident, until I heard the mob shouting in the streets.  I left my house to inquire about it. The supervisor told me that Shama has burnt holy pages of the Quran and that they were going to hand my brother Shahzad and his wife over to the police.  It suddenly dawned on me that my brother and sister were being accused of a blasphemy and the penalty is death.  I felt shocked and horrified to learn their fate and asked the supervisor to set them free. I begged for the life of Shahzad and Shama but nobody was listening.”

He added,  “The angry mob of at least 1000 Muslims were shouting and chanting that they would lay down their lives to protect Isla, but in the end they took my brother's and his wife's.” Fearing for his family and his own safety, he ran to his home and locked his family in his house.

Relatives of Shama and Shahzad are yet to receive any compensation, even though the government had announced that the children would receive Rs5,000,000.  The government will only award compensation for the children of Shama and Shahzad. It is yet to be decided who will be the children’s legal guardian.

Two of the murdered couple’s younger daughters are currently residing with the wife’s sister, Saima, who converted to Islam a few months before the tragic incident. Saima came to the village with her father claiming to be the children’s guardian whilst Shahzad’s brothers, Iqbal and Shahbaz, have also laid claims to legal guardianship of the children. The case is currently with the local court and the compensation that the children rightly deserve is still with the DCO.

The rest of Shama and Shahzad’s family are living with relatives in Clarkabad who are supporting them financially. Shahmim Masih has also supported the family on behalf of the British Pakistani Christian Association, helping them take Shama and Shahzad's belongings back to their villages and providing for their immediate needs.  The family have agreed that the BPCA will pay for the ongoing educational needs of the children when of school age and when the oldest son has settled into a safer environment.

The family are still continuing on with their daily struggles and are looking for employment but have not yet decided what to do, as their loss is overwhelming. Shamim suggested that they move to Lahore or another city as the fear of violence is ever present in the village area of Clarkabad. 

The trial date which started on the 6th November is when the police presented their findings to the court, yet only 70 people were arrested out of the 1000 plus mob. Shamim Masih stated in his opinion, “the trial will no doubt lose momentum and ultimately fail; I expect after a short period of remand the accused will be set free. If we are lucky, one or two culprits could face sentencing.”

Local Christians still living in the village of Chack no.59 are very frightened, convinced that local Muslims will attack again.  Many have already been threatened and beaten since the attack. The local Muslim community stands by the extra-judicial killing, believing a blasphemy occurred, through desecration of their holy book the Quran. The Christian community in Clarkabad wants those who committed the murders to be held accountable and punished.

Labour unions of the brick kiln are being active in setting those free who are still in labour bondage. However, this has mainly benefited the local Muslim community many of whom are taking advantage of the incarceration of the landowner and his accountant.  All 10 Christian families have had to remain in labour bondage as no assistance has been provided and they have nowhere to go.  The Christian community are still targets and can be attacked at any time, especially those Christians who are still living in the same village Chack no.59,

Shahzad’s brothers and sister have been moved to Clarkabad as it has become untenable for them to remain in Chack No.59.  They are the only Christian family to have escaped the torture of the bonded labour and the pariah status Christians endure in this most inhospitable of areas.



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The BPCA has initiated a permanent benevolent fund for the family of Shahzad and Shama. The BPCA desires to free them from their bonded labour status and will work towards providing a new safer environment for this family, that has suffered the loss of loved ones in a brutal and savage manner.  This family have been left with serious emotional and psychological scarring and are receiving counselling.  The orphaned children are being cared for by the family of Shahzad and your donations will provide ongoing care. If you would like to contribute to our appeal our bank details are as follows: 

Sort Code:     20-67-90   Account number: 63468976      

Bank:   Barclays  


Ref:     Love for Shahzad and Shama (regular standing orders must use this reference).

Alternatively, if you would like to send an immediate donation please use the pay-pal facility on the top right hand corner of our blog, or simply send a cheque made payable to the BPCA to our address; 57 Green Lane, Ilford, Essex, IG1 1XG.  

With your support we hope to change the lives of millions of Christians in Pakistan.