Photo, above: Chinese-North Korean border.  See Hour 2, Block B, Bruce Bechtol, professor at Angelo State University, in Texas, and author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, associate political scientist at RAND, in re: Gen Xu Caihou, senior, charged with corruption; everyone in the military had to swear fealty directly to XI Jinping.  Most significant arrest n China since Lin in 1970s.; was Xi's colleague, has helped lead PLA.  Investigations began before Xi took office; connected to Gu and his bribes.  Xi has been cutting the support structure out from under Zhou Yongkang, head of secret police and intell services.  The rot in China's system is so widespread that everyone in the country is connected somehow.  Bo Xilai.  CPP sees the lesson of USSR is that the Party must hang together  - or they'll hang separately.  Weapons; outflows of refugees. Until Xi, each successive leader had less personal authority and, having less power vested in the offices, themselves, had less power overall. Xi has two living and influential predecessors. Is Xi getting too strong?  Could he push it so far that people start to worry, think, "Maybe I should get out now or begin a coup?"  Note a huge exit of capital from China in recent years.  Beijing tried to ignore the white paint. 

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Michael Fonté, Washington director of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party Mission in the US, in re: Communist Party official visited Taiwan,  his vehicle was splattered by white paint. Beijing may have noticed that Ma Ying-jeou represents only part of the  23 million Taiwanese population.  Beijing said, "All billion-plus Chinese people get to vote on Taiwan's future." Mayor of Kaohsiung said, "No, we Taiwanese get to vote on our present and future. "  Beijing is shocked to notice that it truly  does not understand the people of Taiwan.

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show, & Dr Frank Martin, Martin Consulting, in re:   We took a first-order cut of funding for manned trips to Mars.  Not a lot of public interest in spending what it'll cost.  . . .   Human survival: Hawking speaks of spreading humans through the Solar System and beyond.  . . . How far can we go and what can we accomplish there?  If we don’t proceed, others will be there – Chinese and more – then that future will be filled with other nations.  JFK speech on being on the Moon in a decade was driven by the Cold War.  Combine all the factors – constrained budgets, bldg relations with other nations (bldg space stations is the best example: Russians, Europeans, Japanese, American)  -  unless resources are committed, it won't happen, The plan has to precede the budget.  Look at Elon Musk's report: mass required is 2 to 4 times that of the Intl Space Station.  Mass required to get humans to Mars and back is a daunting  task. 

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 1, Block D:  Shai Oster, Bloomberg, in re:  the idea of working t death is cultural as much as medical; recall the Japanese salaryman. US heart attacks and strokes: stress, desk for long hours, overtime.   A Mr Li had outbreaks of rashes, chicken pox, rashes, asked co-workers not to tell anyone, and now  he's dead. Good of society vs good of the individual. CCP myths: someone who did everything for the Party and the State – not as a warning sign but as a model.    This insane work envt is commoner in the private sector than in state business. Questions are being driven by the young, who ask, Why am I doing all this? (Also driven by social media.)  Same in Japan and South Korea.   People are keeling over at their desks.

Is Work Killing You? In China, Workers Die at Their Desks–China is facing an epidemic of overwork, to hear the state-controlled press and Chinese social media tell it. About 600,000 Chinese a year die from working too hard, according to the China Youth Daily. China Radio International in April reported a toll of 1,600 every day.  [more]

Hour Two

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Harry Kazianis, managing editor of National Interest and senior Fellow at the China Policy Institute, and on Washington Post, in re: reversal of opinion since the 70-year . . .   Shinzo Abe introduced the notion of collective defense as part of an overall plan to defend Japan.  The Chinese official map agency issued a new map of China – this one introduced a new ten-dashed line off the coast of Taiwan all the way around to the coast of Indonesia.  Each successive Chinese map arrogates larger and larger portions of Planet Earth.  Putting oil rigs off Vietnam, put non-naval maritime assets there, such as fishing boats – do this long enough, eventually China will claim and own it.  How far can China push this?  Shinzo Abe and Japan are changing their status quo as a "normal" nation – starting to give money and materiel to Philippines, have settled disputes in Taiwan; smaller countries starting to look to Japan.  Quotation from Pres Obama – is China starting to "fall apart at the seams"?  Looks as thought the underlying reason for China's expansion is largely to push the US out. How will that affect China's intentions toward the US economically?  . . .  It’s the rule of terror and the gun; it’s not democracy. They couldn't have chosen peace: they live by the gun.   China's ten-dashed line in the South China Sea

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Bruce Bechtol, professor at Angelo State University, in Texas, and author of, North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era, in re: Unusual that North Korea is short on fuel; China has cinthe past cut of fuel for nonpayment, but this is for political reasons and five mos is a  long time esp when you’re so low on fuel, which DRPRK always is.  There appears to be a clear trend that North Korean mi training has been reduced – aircraft, tanks, APCs, artillery; instead, we see provocative acts such as shooting missiles.  Xi Jinping is going to Seoul before he goes to Pyongyang.   Methodology: routine that various entities give DPRK cash under the table, but here's a break in the cycle pattern.  Usu China keeps DPRK on a leash by shutting off fuel for a few weeks – never months.  Look for definitive statements of Chinese sentiments on how DPRK ought to behave.  Check for China's having lost control of DPRK.  Iran is a cash-paying client of DPRK; Iraq, Jordan, Syria are all in collapse; now riots in Jerusalem.  DPRK could survive on Iranian donations, but hundreds of thousands of North Koreans would starve to death or freeze to death.

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Steve Herman, VOA Asia, in re:  one of the The Diplomat: another fugitive at Tokyo University who's been summoned home to Thailand and refused. Invitees are held in army camps, interrogated for a week, released only if they sign a document promising not to engage in political activity or oppose the new junta 9also: not allowed to eat sandwiches – seen as a form of protest - in public or read 1984!) .  the forer Interior Minister has formed a new organization: Free Thais for Democracy and Human Rights, which he says is not connected to Thaksin but that's not clear.  Thirteen of the 19 coups have held out, but governance is not stellar.  The longer the juntas stay in power the more unpopular they become.  This junta makes clear that it will not be a level playing field because they want to be sure of obliterating the power of Thaksin Shinowat.   When King Rama IX passes from the scene, the Crown Prince will not have the same level of reverence.  Powerful lèse-majesté laws, discussion is taboo. 

Enemies of the Coup: Fugitives of the Thai Junta  The Diplomat's Zachary Keck speaks with Dr. Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a fugitive of the Thai Junta

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 2, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: Abenomics and the third arrow.  1. A major monetary expansion to cool down interest rates and depreciate the yen. 2. Massive Keynesian spending.  3. The reforms most needed:  tax reform, labor mkt reform, immigration rationalization – but the third arrow ain't. Because it looks as though 1 has been successful, 3 is slackened. Meanwhile, anent labor mkt reforms: "Old-style lifetime jobs" – the salaryman who left college and stayed in first job forever, but out of sync with modern economies.  There's a large portion of he economy where jobs will never open up, the job-holder will stay forever; but this is a terrible drag on the economy.  Don't Japanese people understand economics?  The problem is inertia. The Japanese Self-Defense Force has the oldest pilots on the planet.  For al this talk about fiscal expansion, etc., Abe shies away from the reform that's most urgently needed. 

Hour Three

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, in re: REVIEW & OUTLOOK The Immigration Reform Collapse

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Mary Anastasia O'Grady, Wall Street Journal, in re:  migrant Central American children at the southern US border.

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Aaron Klein, KleinOnline, in re: Gazan rocket cut electricity in Sderot; the current situation in Israel.

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Angelo Codevilla, Hoover Liberty Law Talk (Library of Law and Liberty), in re:  The Ruling Class Went Down to Mississippi . . . most Democrats approve of Democratic electees, but about 25% of Republicans approve of GOP electees.

Hour Four

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block A: Gene Marks, NYT, in re: IRS boss warns CEOs.    June's auto sales continued to climb, but sales of F-150 pickup trucks declined 11% which could be a sign of weakness in the small business and construction sectors.  Paychex finds small business jobs grew in the first half of 2014.   A payroll tax math error adds $5 billion to the deficit. Twitter's "buy now" button appears for first time.  A new technology could cut public restroom wait times by 50%.   4 reasons why Obamacare will have little effect on your business.

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block B:  Jillian Kay Melchior, National Review Online, in re: New records I obtained through a FOIA show that Romanian hackers gained access to a Vermont health exchange server last winter, with the attack going undetected for a month. And one of the security experts who testified to Congress about Healthcare.gov says this security breach may still pose a risk to consumer privacy.  A bit of context: Vermont’s already had at least one incident in which an enrollee’s Social Security number and other confidential data was compromised. My story ran this morning.

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Ajax, the Dutch, the War: The Strange Tale of Soccer During Europe's Darkest Hour by Simon Kuper (1 of 2)

Wednesday  2 July 2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Ajax, the Dutch, the War: The Strange Tale of Soccer During Europe's Darkest Hour by Simon Kuper (2 of 2)