The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 15 July 2015

Air Date: 
July 15, 2015

Photo, left: Window on Pluto's Rocky Mountains of water ice.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. 
 
Hour One
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re:  Q2 numbers and the stock markets. GDP growth of 7%  ot possible. The Party isn't interested in the truth; it's interested in soothing and maintaining control Absent meaningful decisions, can't make good policy decisions.   Heavy govt buying in the stock mkt, prohibition on selling, ergo, collapse of confidence in the govt and the got panicked. It was a small matter but the govt insisted on supporting the index at an irrational level.  No one will buy stuff if you don't think you can sell it; infringement of property rights, If you haven't awakened to the fact that China is in a severe slowdown, you haven't been paying attn. PBOC said that China's forex reserves dropped by $40 Bil. Significant.
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re: India was sensitive to what China thought of India in maritime Asia; the fact that India is now inviting Japan is says that it's no longer as concerned.  Japanese ships in the Indian Ocean, Indian ships in the South China Sea. China has managed to transform regional thinking.  Modi has taken the old "Look East" policy of India and changed it to "Act East"!     Russia hosted a Shanghai Cooperation mtg in Ufa, southern Russia, of BRICs; India invited to join. India participating in naval exercises with the Great Satan. India unlikely to join any anti-NATO movement.  India has made it clear that it opposes Chinese expansionism into Indian waters.  At the close of the Ufa mtgs, announce that Pres Putin accepted Chinese inv in September to commemoration of defeat of Japan (with which the Chinese Communists had nothing to do).  The area is a provocation to Japan; Russia participates.   The Indian Ocean Basin: a major factor in the XXI Century.
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: John Bolton, AEI, in re: the Iran deal – a euphemism for the P5+1 negotiations. UN, EU, US Congress, the Iranian Majlis – all must agree to the agreement.  "Any time anywhere" inspections were guaranteed by Ben Rhodes and the White House, which is breaking its neck to back away. It's not in the agreement. Iran ahs been given a license to delay, obstruct, conceal and stonewall IAEA to inspect nuclear facilities. IAEA is genuinely good, but it's not an espionage agency. This is a diplomatic Waterloo for the US – battle tanks given to Iran's subsidiaries, other major military goods.
"Deal Making in Vienna," from the Pittsburgh Tribune Review:  After repeatedly ignoring self-imposed deadlines, Iran and the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members (plus Germany) are about to sign a nuclear deal in Vienna. To most Americans, reaching an agreement means moving on to performance. But the Tehran regime has a very different view. To the mullahs, the Vienna accord is merely a rest stop before starting new negotiations, not their conclusion. This so-called “final” agreement is simply one more interim step, one more tactic to extract further concessions from Barack Obama. Whatever Congress acts on in the coming days is already on the way to becoming just another dusty document in the archives
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block D Sohrab Ahmari, WSJ, in re: Iranians's response to the deal, opportunity to vent excitement with celebrations n the street. Also, Bashar al Assed was mighty happy.  Pres Putin "breathed a sigh  of relief": he can sell more arms.  Jack Lew" "most of the money [$150 Bil] will not be used toward" war-making. Not one scrap of evidence. The upcoming arms race makes the entre region substantially more dangerous.  Nukes everywhere. . . .  If Iran, whose motto is "Death to America" gets nukes, why shouldn’t everybody else?
Hour Two
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Paul Mooney, freelance journalist who's reported from China for 18 years, in re:  The lawyer Wang Yu has been disappeared by the unelected tyrants of Beijing.  . . . Chinese regime's plane to intimidate all human rights lawyers (of which there are 200 to 300 in the country).  A testament to the human spirit to stand up in face of torture or death.    http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-targets-human-rights-lawyers-in-crackdown-1436715268
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Bruce Bechtol, Angelo State University and author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era, in re: http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/11/asia/north-korea-new-defense-minister/  ; http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2015/07/13/2015071300886.html
 Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Michael Auslin, Director of Japan Studies, AEI, in re: Will 2015 be remembered as the year that we reached 'peak China'? China is beginning to be viewed as a source of security and economic concern rather than as an engine of growth or a cooperative actor. Look a bit more at China's stock market woes - a symptom of a bigger problem: the end of China’s economic miracle. . . .  China. Russia.  China is worrisome because a weak China historically is more dangerous than a strong Cha, although it's just swept up 124 human rights lawyers – if it sees its lease on life growing short, it'll be dangerous. Greece could be comparatively a walk in the park. A canary in the coalmine. Economy falling apart, political turbulence – a perfect storm assembling.  Since Mao's demise in '76 and the Gang of Four, the  leadership carefully arranged for a smooth power turnover every decade; Xi threatens the entire system.  "Xi Dada" – Uncle Xi – may not even step down from power. He's taken all the norms, guidelines, rules to keep a resilient Communist system and jettisoned them.  Xi Dada will be welcomed in Washington by Pres Obama in September, Heaven help us.  China stole 38 million data records and X million fingerprints!  Yet they sat at a table and never put any price on Chinese actions. Chinese laughing at the Americans.
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block D:  Aaron Back, WSJ, in re: WSJ Moneybeat: PBOC Gives Glimpse of Its Bazooka  China’s central bank seems to have arrested the stock market slide for now—by inventing a new form of monetary easing. But the markets may soon test its resolve.  In an extraordinary statement on Thursday morning before the market opened, the People’s Bank of China said it would lend an unspecified amount to the state-owned China Securities Finance Corp., which would use the money to support the stock market. This marks a departure from the CSFC’s original mission, which was to finance margin lending by brokers. Already, the CSFC has lent 260 billion yuan ($42 billion) to 21 domestic brokers for the purpose of buying shares, and also bought an unknown amount of stock itself directly.
..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..  ..
PBOC Gives Glimpse of Its Bazooka  China’s central bank seems to have arrested the stock market slide for now—by inventing a new form of monetary easing. But the markets may soon test its resolve.  In an extraordinary statement on Thursday morning before the market opened, the People’s Bank of China said it would lend an unspecified amount to the state-owned China Securities Finance Corp., which would use the money to support the stock market. This marks a departure from the CSFC’s original mission, which was to finance margin lending by brokers. Already, the CSFC has lent 260 billion yuan ($42 billion) to 21 domestic brokers for the purpose of buying shares, and also bought an unknown amount of stock itself directly.
This looks like quantitative easing with Chinese characteristics. Instead of buying bonds, as many central banks around the world have done, China is effectively printing money to buy shares. The difference is the PBOC is outsourcing the actual stock buying to an intermediary.  For now, the move seems to have injected confidence—Shanghai stocks have risen 11% in the past two days. But now that China’s stock market has lost its air of invincibility, selling pressure could soon resume.  In which case, the PBOC may hesitate to use this new easing tool extensively. If it does, it risks swelling the money supply and putting downward pressure on the yuan. Alternatively, the PBOC could soak up the added liquidity, for instance by issuing bonds. But that could lift market interest rates at a time when the PBOC is trying to loosen policy. Even for China, there’s no such thing as free money.
Hour Three
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: 1.  Mrs Clinton Leaps Left  http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-word-hillary-clinton-wont... /  One thing Clinton didn’t do was utter the “R-word”—redistribution—which would surely be a central element of any serious revival of old-fashioned American liberalism. Instead, she talked about encouraging “fair growth,” which is another term for inclusive prosperity. Speaking on this theme, she said, for example, “We have to get serious about supporting workers,” and, referring to the need for tax reform, “Those at the top have to pay their fair share.”
2.  The Democratic Ops do not favor HRC /  https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/621191285194551296
3.  Mrs Clinton has a timeshare on a weather vane, says Jake Tapper   The Hill  @thehill   BREAKING: Hillary Clinton applauds Iran deal hill.cm/JL8TedP pic.twitter.com/I0vmS80KiY    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/247961-clinton-applauds...
4.  Scott Walker Leaps Right  Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker launches bid with red meat speech  Scott Walker, the political phenomenon who rose to national fame by taking on unions in . . .
5.  Donald Trump Boom Continues / - @realDonaldTrump’s Lesson: Voters Are Furious about Illegal Immigration natl.re/hGHzE1 my column @NRO  (1  of 2)
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; (2 of 2)
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block C:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re: WHO'S RUNNING NIGERIA?:  Muhammadu Buhari promised to end corruption, defeat Boko Haram, and cure Nigeria's oil woes. But six weeks into his presidency, he hasn't he picked any advisers to enact his ambitious agenda, FP contributor Siddhartha Mitter reports:  Read more
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Ken Chang, Hoover, in re: Pluto!
Hour Four
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block A: Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947 by Bruce Hoffman PART II of III (1 of 4)
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947 by Bruce Hoffman PART II of III (2 of 4)
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947 by Bruce Hoffman PART II of III (3 of 4)
Wednesday   15 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: Anonymous Soldiers: The Struggle for Israel, 1917-1947 by Bruce Hoffman PART II of III (4 of 4)