Photo, above: Trouble and flight in the Central African Republic.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts:  Gordon Chang, Forbes.com.  Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.

Hour One

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block A: Scott Harold, Associate Political Scientist at RAND Corporation, in re: South Korea responds to China's Peoples Liberation Army Navy by constructing its own air defense identification zone, including a submerged rock where repose the spirits of dead fishermen. Beijing's unilateral decree has soured relations with its neighbor Seoul. China also faces the ouster of the relatively more pro-China uncle of young Kim, the regent, in North Korea.  China tries to buy generals and admirals in DPRK, then the North Korean leadership endeavors to purge them.  China creates its own enemies, unforced errors. Will it pull back and try to split the coalition standing arm to arm opposing China? 

Win Lord calls Xi Jinping "Dictator Xi."

South Korea expands air defense zone in reaction to China

Defense ministry conducts daily patrol flight to Ieo Island  With the Korea air defense identification zone expanded to cover the nation’s flight information region (FIR), the government is speeding up steps to take follow-on measures. The government has beefed up patrol activities in waters around the undersea reef islet of Ieo, and started preparations to hold consultations with neighboring countries including China and Japan.

“An inter-ministerial consultative meeting is scheduled at 2 p.m. on Tuesday to discuss follow-on measures in the wake of the adjustment of KADIZ,” Defense ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok told a regular press briefing on . . . [more]

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block B: Kelley Currie, Senior Fellow at Project 2049 Institute,  in re: Burma: images of Burmese pumping and siphoning oil by small tubes or bamboo, hand-pumping oil, then transporting the containers across rough roads by mini-motorcycle and horse cart to sell it at $80/Bbl.   This small-entrepreneurship occurs in oil and gas and mineral mining; junta sets up blockades at chokepoints to collect saleable goods and money. See BBC photos.  Meet Burma's DIY  oil drillers. Tin Maung Win has been drilling near the Burmese town of Magway for around six months. "We dig about 100m down. We used to get 18 barrels a day but now we only get four or five barrels, because so many people have come to the land," he told the BBC.

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block C:  Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show, and Bill Farrand, Space Science Institute, in re: Opportunity Mars rover on the rim of Salandra (?) Point, Murray Ridge, Endeavour crater.  En route to winter location, possibly Cook Haven.   Noachian Period (as in, Noah); rocks of different ages, some over 3 billion years old. Water flowed for 200 million years.  Igneous rocks.   

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 1, Block D: William Mallard, Reuters Deputy Bureau Chief in Japan, in re: Senkakus/Diaooyu/Diaoyutai: uninhabited islands under much dispute, with Japan, China, and to some extent Taiwan, staking a claim on them.   We spoke with Japanese passengers flying though the new ADIZ, only ne was apprehensive about safety and all supported the Japanese decision to make the point. PM Abe is more nationalistic, less apologetic than his predecessors.  When the Japanese govt bought the Senkakus from a family tat owned them, Chinese people grew wroth and rioted, smashed Japanese holdings in China. This in turn angered the Japanese people.  However, Japan has for decades understood that the Senkakus were, in fact, Japanese. In the post-War period Japan's defense has been on old since Washington is protector and tied by treaty. Washington has carefully not taken a position on ownership but recognizes that Japan administered the rocks. 

China expresses regret over South Korea air defense zone; Australia foreign minister downplays China air defense zone tension in visit; China's parliament: Japan has "no right to criticize" air defense zone.

Hour Two

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block A: Todd Stein, Director of Government Relations at the International Campaign for Tibet, in re:  HH the Dalai Lama was not present at the commemoration of the life of Nelson Mandela; his spokesman said he wouldn’t attend.  His absence shines a grisly light on China's influence in South Africa, which acknowledges pressure in the past from China not to grant a visa.  This engendered a slew of stories on how China is a bully.  Beijing crows over the relative isolation of His Holiness, but that's a fraction of the negative worldwide press. China ends up the loser.  The Dalai Lama, a man in his seventies and very mild, represents to the Chinese govt an alternative source of power – as leader of Vajrayana Tibetan Buddhism – which China can’t control. HH is not trying to cause any inconvenience to China, but decades ago China decided to cal him The Devil.   Yes, there's a bureaucratic office in China that spends all its time casting aspersions on a scattering of unlived persons.   Since HH the Dalai Lama had a long-term friendship with Nelson Mandela, his absence due to Chinese bullying is newsworthy.  This is like the Sixteenth Century, where China sees itself as the center of the word and everyone needs to bow down to it.  Jung Gwo – "China" in Chinese language – means "Central Nation," as in, the center of the world. 

The Dalai Lama will not attend memorial services for fellow Nobel Peace Prize laureate Nelson Mandela in South Africa, where the Buddhist spiritual leader has twice been unable to obtain a visa, a spokesman said Monday.

Tenzin Takhla gave no specific reason for the Dalai Lama missing the memorial service in Johannesburg and funeral in Mandela's hometown, saying only that "logistically it's impossible at this time."

The Dalai Lama — based in the Indian hill town of Dharamsala since he fled China in 1959 — was welcomed to South Africa in 1996 and met with Mandela when he was South Africa's first black and democratically elected president.

But in 2009, the South African government blocked the Dalai Lama from attending a Nobel laureates' peace conference, saying it would detract attention from the 2010 soccer World Cup.

The Tibetan spiritual leader later made plans to travel to South Africa in October 2011 for the 80th birthday party of another Nobel laureate, Archbishop Desmond Tutu. But the South African High Commission office in New Delhi stalled on processing the visa until the Dalai Lama eventually withdrew his application.

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block B: Charles Ortel, Managing Director of Newport Value Partners, in re: Chinese buying U.S. assets. even Detroit is a better investment than the very troubled Shanghai, Beijing, other polluted cities. Buying bargains in New York City. They bought the GM bldg and the Chase bldg – this may turn out to have been a bit of arrogance. Better to buy in Texas!

China's Newest City: We Call It 'Detroit'  Detroit, broke with almost no prospects for recovery, is the fourth most popular U.S. destination for Chinese real estate investors.  In fact, it was bad news—the city’s July 18 bankruptcy filing—that triggered renewed interest.  “While the bankruptcy is viewed as a bad thing elsewhere, it raised the exposure level of Detroit’s real estate market in China,” says Evonne Xu, a Michigan attorney catering to Chinese purchasers.  Middle Kingdom, meet Motown.

Chinese shoppers can’t resist a bargain.  Where else can you buy a two-story home in the U.S. for $39?  China Central Television, the state broadcaster, in March reported that two houses in Detroit cost the same as a pair of leather shoes.  No wonder a poster on Sina Weibo, the Twitter-like service, asked, “Seven-hundred thousand people, quiet, clean air, no pollution, democracy—what are you waiting for?” [more]

What will China buy? Beijing goes shopping in the U.S.   

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block C: Steven L Herman, Southeast Asia Bureau Chief/Correspondent, Voice of America, in re: Thai anti-democracy uprising.  Amid protests, Thailand's PM Yingluck Shinawatra dissolves parliament  After weeks of demonstrations in the capital, Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra dissolved the nation's parliament Monday and called for . . .  Monarchy and sharp-elbowed political system, and quite corrupt, pervasive throughout the Thai political system. 

Also ADIZ of China,  and the ADIZ of South Korea.  ADIZ are not identical to territorial airspace; the stronger tensions focus on China vs Japan and Japan vs the ROK?  Rising awareness in the US that this is serious – US has mutual defense treaties with Philippines, South Korea and Japan.  

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 2, Block D: David Feith, editorial page writer for The Wall Street Journal Asia in Hong Kong, in re:  UUS t o pursue a policy with Iran, although Iran has advanced its nuclear program so far that US intell would require an amazing degree of intell and knowledge; history is replete with our failure to see nuclear progress of other states, and we didn’t see 9/11 coming.  Wise to be nervous about current US assurances of, "Don’t worry, we'll know about Iranian nuclear developments with plenty of time to spare."  All sorts f activity can go on without detection, let lone real-time detection. Also, Iran and other countries can operate in smart, sophisticated ways while knowing how US policy and practices work. Draw a parallel between Iran and China "salami slicing" – more and more aggressive deeds but never quite enough to trip an alarm, or "cross a red line":  Iran keeps installing more  and more thousands of centrifuges, but haven’t yet tested a weapon in the desert.

Seymour Hersh: Obama "Cherry-Picked" Intelligence on Syrian Chemical Attack to Justify U.S. Strike

Lonely Place for Spying  There was little cooperation among America's spy agencies before 9/11. Some considered creating a unified 'Department of Intelligence.'

A central assumption behind the Obama administration's approach to the Iranian nuclear program is that the U.S. would be able to detect the mullahs crossing the nuclear threshold. Yet the U.S. was caught off guard by the Soviet bomb in 1949, by China's bomb in 1964, by Iraq's weaponization progress in 1991 and by Syria's plutonium-production facility in 2007. This history should temper confidence in Washington's ability to divine the most closely held secrets of its adversaries. So should America's most significant early-21st-century intelligence failures: our inability to "connect the dots" before al Qaeda's 9/11 attack and our belief in 2003 that Saddam Hussein still had stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons.

Hour Three

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block A:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ Asia editorial board, in re: TPP: Major Asian economic and trade deal.  China not included; participants aim to deepen relations with the US. Will change relations among all members, esp in intellectual property; stands a good chance of actually increasing trade.  A subtler strategic reason: Shinzo Abe has signed on because he understands the connections between a strong domestic economy and a country's ability to stand up to a difficult neighbor (such as China). High strategic stakes in this trade deal.    Chinese state media see this deal as opposed to China.  Interesting that doves don’t seem to be focusing on this – no one much saying, "Don’t do this as it’ll upset China."

The Other Benefits of Trade for Japan  Trans-Pacific Partnership is about more than tariffs. It will also change intellectual-property protections.  One of Shinzo Abe's most important economic reform ideas for Japan has been to participate in negotiations toward a multi-lateral Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. But the full consequences of this move are barely starting to come into focus. For instance, commentators pay a lot of attention to how a comprehensive deal would allow greater imports of services and manufactured goods into Japan. But that ignores many other potential benefits, especially in the area of intellectual property protection.

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block B:  Mark Schroeder, Stratfor, in re:  South Africa tried to help Bozize during the coup, but France blocked that. Now there's a massive, ongoing catastrophe; Hollande's failure to intervene in March has led to a dictator in Bangui and apparent genocide in countless villages.  Joseph Kony, LRA, is in the bush there: no government oversight over tens of thousands of square miles.  Fane has not deployed any sufficient number of forces to pacify the disaster; trying only to stabilize the capital city, Bangui.  No report of jihadist activity; these are well-armed rebels.  All of eastern CAR is unpatrolled. South Sudan is in a tenuous situation – the writ of the Juba govt is shallow. Western South Sudan is no-man's land. Lots of armed rebels, AK-47s. machine guns. Unstable.  France is actually asking for African Union forces!  This'll go on for a long time.

Central African Republic: 2 French Troops Reportedly Killed   Two French soldiers have been killed in the Central African Republic, where France recently deployed additional troops, Reuters reported Dec. 10, citing BFM TV. 

Central African Republic: French Deployment to Reach 1,600 Troops, Hollande Says   France will increase its troop deployment in the Central African Republic to 1,600 soldiers by the evening of Dec. 7, up from an earlier commitment of 1,200 troops, French President Francois Hollande said.

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block C: Diana Henriques, NYT, in re: Madoff Victims, Five Years the Wiser  Speaking from experience, victims of the Madoff Ponzi scheme advise other investors to diversify their savings, focus on what really matters in life and resist giving up.  . . .  America-Israel Cultural Association, a seventy-year rack record; hit very hard.  The enormous respect in which they were held caused stars to assemble to rebuild funds.

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 3, Block D:    Bret Stephens, WSJ, in re:  Chuck Hagel Was Right  . . .  in Washington, a gaffe is defined as a politician's accidentally telling the truth. 

Hour Four

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block A: Chelsea Conaboy, Boston Globe, in re: Problems continue to plague Mass. health marketplace  With three weeks left in the year, not one of the thousands of Massachusetts residents who need to enroll in new health insurance plans by Jan. 1 has been able to do so through the state insurance marketplace that was revamped to comply with the national Affordable Care Act.

About 126,000 people enrolled in health plans subsidized by the state have until March to choose a new plan and can keep their current coverage until then. But thousands of others are depending on a new plan to start on the first of the year, and some worry that their coverage will not be ready in time. Their anxiety has only been heightened by stubborn technical problems, such as a snag this week that blocked many people from signing in to the website.

Gina Kamentsky of Somerville has been trying to enroll through the Massachusetts Health Connector for weeks. Her insurance plan, bought through . . .

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block B:  Brian X Chen, NYT, in re:  New York Asks Cellphone Carriers to Explain Why They Rejected Antitheft Switch  New York’s attorney general, Eric T. Schneiderman, sent letters to AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile US, U.S. Cellular and Verizon Wireless asking why they were not using the kill switch feature in Samsung smartphones.

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack,  in re:  Data from Messenger now shows that as Mercury cooled, it shrank far more than earlier data had indicated. A new census of these ridges, called lobate scarps, has found more of them, with steeper faces, than ever before. The discovery suggests that Mercury shrank by far more than the previous estimate of 2-3 kilometres, says Paul Byrne, a planetary scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington DC. He presented the results today at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, California.

The finding helps explain how Mercury’s huge metallic core cooled off over time. It may also finally reconcile theoretical scientists, who had predicted a lot of shrinkage, with observers who had not found evidence of that — until now. “We are resolving a four-decades-old conflict here,” Byrne told the meeting.

An upbeat wimpy maximum holds on  Today NOAA posted its monthly update of the solar cycle, showing the sunspot activity for the Sun in November. As I do every month, I am posting it here, below the fold, with annotations.  As in October, the Sun was more active than it has been for this entire solar maximum. November’s numbers dropped slightly from October, but still remained

Wednesday  11 December  2013  / Hour 4, Block D: Dennis Berman, WSJ, in re: Is a Peanut Butter Pop-Tart an Innovation?  When Companies Confuse a Product Upgrade with a True Breakthrough; Keeping Pace with Rivals   It measures nearly 3 inches by 5 inches, and it's made from enriched flour, corn syrup and creamy peanut butter.   This is Kellogg's Gone Nutty! peanut butter Pop-Tart. If you agree with Kellogg CEO John Bryant, it's one of the cereal company's important products of 2013. He went so far as to call it an innovation.   Listen to the chiefs of America's biggest companies, and you'll find the Gone Nutty! Pop-Tart has plenty of company. Most CEOs . .  .

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Music

Hour 1:  Matrix. Star Trek II.

Hour 2:  Last Samurai. Robin Hood.

Hour 3:  Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring. Chronicles of Narnia. Empire Total War.

Hour 4: