The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 10 September 2014

Air Date: 
September 10, 2014

Map, above: The ISIS map of the world – by courtesy of and with thanks to The Daily Mail (an Arabic version at the end of this page): Militants outline chilling five-year plan for global domination as they declare formation of caliphate - and change their name to the Islamic State

•       Sunni militants have announced formation of Islamic state in Middle East

•       They demand Muslims around the world swear allegiance to the caliphate

•       Claim leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi now has authority over all Muslims

•       Group has also now changed its name from ISIS to just the Islamic State

Announcement described as 'most significant development in international jihadism since 9/11'.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Hour One

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: President Obama speaks of his four-part strategy : Iraq; in Syria (pursue where ISIS is hiding; lacking explanation of how do to this v Assad): CIA, drones, the whole Af-Pak library; humanitarian relief as the Iraqi govt has collapsed. 

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block B:   John Batchelor, in re:   . . . takfiri jihadism, an extreme interpretation ff some aspects of Islam:  My way alone is holy and correct, follows Allah and Mohammed. If you follow my confession, punishments rules, you'll be accepted as a brother; otherwise, you’re an infidel and you'll die.  It cares not to negotiate with any other group.   Takfiri jihadists use hideous video both to scare everyone and to recruit young men – US, Europe, India.   Young men flow  in with social media skills.  The young women taken slave in Iraq first had their cell phones taken away; then the phones were returned so the women would communicate their terror and degradation to their families and friends in order to frighten everyone – and recruit more young men. The enemy will not be defeated quickly; it's a destruction cult. We'll defeat it only with ideas.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block C: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution and Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor;  in re:    Why didn’t he give the speech tomorrow, on the 9/11 anniversary, and why not to Congress?  ISIS move on Fallujah, Mosul Irbil, but it was the two beheadings that affected the American people; Pres Obama's speech of this evening was a domestic-political response to that.  A year ago he spoke strongly against Assad's chem weapons against his people – then took no action.   Montana, SD, WV, all gone; did he president help the other Democrats under stress?  Nope.  Note: "I welcome Congress's support" – what?    LBJ would never say this; he'd work the phones and speak to Congressmen - directly.  This president  has never cared much about Congress. Once his Democratic majority went away, he merely worked around it, used czars, executive directives. This president has no idea how to use his position.  You’d think he'd force a vote in Congress, "I demand that Congress join me."  . . .  Didn’t the president notice that Poroshenko has already surrendered?  . . .   Dubious assertions about America's winning over Russia . .  .  Madeleine Albright at a  Ohio university about airstrikes in Belgrade, of which the press said, "She didn’t believe it."  Here, looks as though he doesn’t believe it. 

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Markos Kounalakis, Sacramento Bee, in re: being a journalist in conflict zones.  The murders of two American journalists, Satloff and Foley, by takfiri jihadists has enraged the American people.  Iraq is a chaotic place even to enter; I surely wouldn’t recommend anyone go. No borders, unclear who the combattents are. US is withdrawing reporters worldwide for market reasons, also now because of extreme danger. Absent reporting, how can voters here know what's occurring?  Perhaps some form of embedding with US forces; also, just because I wouldn’t assign anyone doesn’t mean that no young people are going. Finally, there are institutions that can get people out here.  Rakkah in Syria; Mosul and Fallujah in Iraq, are the HQ of ISIS.  Should we withdraw American reporters from the grip of these sadists? We can’t entirely.  However, organizations need to give reporters the highest level of protection possible.  Pres Obama on Ukraine:  puzzling. 

Hour Two

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block A: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: the Staff college will hear the gap between the president's grand statements and mean, stingy effectuation.  There's no strategy in there.  Semantic games: the pilots engaged in fighting are in combat.  All he means is  that he won’t contribute ground forces – which, he acknowledged , is essential   He was very vague about what he'll do and did not in any way bring fear to hour enemies. The limits the president put  on the engagement are wholly insufficient for us to win.  . . .  China pumps more than half the oil in Iraq, where as the US doesn't really need that. China has put 900 troops there under UN aegis – to protect oil in Sudan.  Matthew  _____, inter al., has said that ISIS is a greater threat to the US than is al Qaeda. If I were Assad or in ISIL, I’d feel pretty good after the president's speech.  The president's focus on two dead Americans sounds to Middle Eastern ears unsympathetic to the 200,000 people dead.  Solipsistic.   The worst war to get involved in a war is to creep in to it incrementally, expanding war aims you don’t adequately resource, hen ramp up to escalate Frightens allies and encourages enemies. 

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re: We send in pilot to bomb fr the air, no danger, while we send others to go in on the ground and die.  In Estonia, Pres Obama gave a dispiriting speech: non-NATO, which [could go hang], and NATO, which he in effect swore to protect. Ukrainians have been told, you’re not in NATO so we can’t help you.  Non-NATO states are told, You're on your own.  Have to get permission from 30 countries to send a rapid deployment force.  Pres referred to Congressional approval – which could constitute an impediment, esp from his left wing.  He weaseled out of bombing Syria by saying he had to go to Congress.  Does Putin now have any reason whatsoever to hesitate in his ambitions in coming years? No. He's won in Ukraine.  Now he decides whom to digest next, will wait a month or two.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block C:  Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover, in re:  Israel and Jordan, historically and in principle US allies, are now cool to the US because of the American president's vacillating and uncertain policies.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block D:  Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research Hong Kong, in re: Li Keqiang, who neglected to explain his economic intentions adequately and attendees at he meeting walked out on him.   China has taken over some small places and its rhetoric has stepped up, but compared to its GDP growth that's been rather modest. Not dark, but more nationalistic and a bit more aggressive.  Is the US withdrawal creating space for Chinese aggression?

Hour Three

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block A:  Fraser Howie,  managing director of CLSA Singapore, and Andrew Collier, Orient Capital Research Hong Kong, in re:    Li Keqiang made a keynote speech in Shenjen, people walked out.  Li isn't able to pull a rabbit out of his hat; how can he ramp up Chinese growth rate?  1. He could reform, make a difference at the margin;  2, short term? can only borrow more, stave off default, try to restart he housing boom. Chinese mode has largely run its course. An addiction. Can’t come off the addiction while maintaining the high.  AC: They're getting state organs to buy things – getting some state agencies to buy apartments! Delicate balancing act: mortgage meltdown vs. pulling plug on cash. Unemployed graduates in the streets.  Even with no jobs, there's a huge belief in the system in China.   . . .  all the toys that can be made in China are being made in China.  Leadership is frightened.   Talk of reform,  but it's not occurring – state firms get cheap rates on loans. 

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block B:  Bruce Bechtol, Angelo State, author of The Last Days of Kim Jong-il: The North Korean Threat in a Changing Era, in re: North Korea is a depraved, failed state that could disappear overnight.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block C:  Sadanand Dhume, WSJ and AEI, in re: The ISIS Siren Call to India's Muslims; I argue that despite al Qaeda setting up a new South Asian franchise, the appeal and imagery of ISIS present a bigger threat to India.    Statement by the Press Secretary on the Visit of Prime Minister Modi of India.   President Obama looks forward to welcoming Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to the White House on September 29-30, 2014.
 
The two leaders will discuss a range of issues of mutual interest in order to expand and deepen the U.S.-India strategic partnership.  They will discuss ways to accelerate economic growth, bolster security cooperation, and collaborate in activities that bring long-term benefits to both countries and the world.  They will also focus on regional issues, including current developments in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, where India and the United States can work together with partners towards a positive outcome.
 
The President looks forward to working with the Prime Minister to fulfill the promise of the U.S.-India strategic partnership for the benefit of both our citizens and the world.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: Scott Harold, political scientist at Rand Corporation, & Foreign Affairs, in re:  the latest in Hong Kong and the broad implications for PRC foreign policy and China's Taiwan policy. When China announced last week that it would not permit open nominations for the post of Hong Kong chief executive in 2017, it marked a turning point in one of the most serious crises to affect the city since it was handed over by the United Kingdom in 1997 with a promise that it could retain its own way of life for 50 years. According to the Sino-British Joint Declaration on Hong Kong, by which the city was returned to China, Beijing promised to allow Hong Kong to retain its basic capitalist economic system and social institutions until 2047. That promise was not only enshrined in an international treaty between China and the United Kingdom, but also written into the Hong Kong constitution, known as the Basic Law, and reflected in China’s public commitment to the policy of “one country, two systems.” But many Hong Kongers have long suspected that China aspires to accelerate the existing timeline. Thus, while the immediate question roiling Hong Kong today is how the city will be governed after 2017, on another level, Hong Kong is wrestling with much more fundamental questions concerning what convergence and eventual integration into the mainland will mean, when it should begin, how it should proceed, and what rights Hong Kongers have in shaping how (or even if) that process unfolds.

Politically, Hong Kongers have already had plenty of opportunity to experience the sorts of chief executives that take office when Beijing selects the city’s leaders, and it has not been a happy experience. Hong Kong's current chief executive, C. Y. Leung, was chosen by a pro-Beijing selection committee in 2012, as were his predecessors Donald Tsang (2005–12) and C. H. Tung (1997–2005). . . .

Hour Four

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block A:  Arif Rafiq, Middle East Institute &  PakistanRisk, in re: Members of Sunni rebel group Jaish-al Adl attacked an Iranian border checkpoint near the boundary with Pakistan, killing one soldier and wounding two pro-government militiamen Sept. 10, a military commander said, IRNA reported. The militants fled into Pakistan after taking heavy losses. Jaish-al Adl militants kidnapped five Iranian soldiers in February and have attacked border checkpoints in the past.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: SPACE FLIGHT The Russian takeover of Crimea once again threatens American access to space   A decision by the Russians to possibly shift astronaut training back to a base in the Crimea, now under their control, could lock American astronauts from future Soyuz flights.

Shifting the survival training to Russian-occupied Crimea will require foreign cosmonauts to accept travel there without Ukrainian visas, an explicit acquiescence to the new diplomatic status of the province. Refusal to attend survival training is equivalent to failing the training, which by existing training regulations is an automatic disqualification for flight certification. No Crimea trip, no space trip.  The Russians have not yet made this shift official, so it is possible it will not become a problem. However, the article outlines many reasons why it makes good sense for the Russians to do it.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block C: Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show, and Matthew Wallace, Deputy Project Manager for the Mars 2020 rover mission and future Mars rover plans.;  in re:    Matt has been involved with all of Mars rover programs.  This presentation describes both the Mars 2020 project and the Mars 2020 rover.  Bio.

Wednesday  10 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block D:   Sid Perkins, Science magazine, in re: terminal rain drops!