The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 9 September 2014

Air Date: 
September 09, 2014

Panting above: The Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks to the Sultan of Turkey (1893 version).

In 1880, Ilya Yefimovich Repin traveled to Zaporozhye in Ukraine to gather material for the 1891 Reply of the Zaporozhian Cossacks. The self-governing Cossack communities were concentrated in three geographical areas: Ukrainian territory on the lower Dnieper; the Northern Caucasus; and Siberia. By profession the Cossacks were both farmers and warriors; their economy was based on hunting, fishing, and the breeding of livestock. Cossack self-government reached its peak in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Around 1530 individual groups of Cossacks along the Dnieper merged with the military unit of the Setch. Their fighting power was originally directed against the Islamic Tatars of the Crimea and the Turks. In the war between Poland and Russia for control of the Ukraine in the second half of the seventeenth century, the Zaporozhian Cossacks fought against the Poles. Soon after, however, they also took part in the Russian peasants' revolts, which ultimately brought about their downfall. (Wikipedia)

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio

Hour One

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block A: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, in re:  Agree, Stu Rothenberg's "breeze" favoring the GOP in coming elections.  Democrats have trouble getting out the vote in the heading-Republican states.   In New Hampshire, Scott Brown ran an ad on immigration, on Jeanne Shaheen's [senior United States Senator from New Hampshire] position; narrowed her lead to two points.  Two "I"s leading the races: immigration and ISIL. . . . The Tex-Mex border, with 30K? 50K? children changed national thinking on immigration and security. Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are givens for the GOP.  Of the others, only Mr Udall is a question, and he made a mistake yesterday.  Iowa is decidedly for Republicans.  In play: Virginia and Minnesota.  LK: I’d prefer that this surge occur mid-October rather than mid-September. 

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block B: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, in re: GOP still lacks a compelling vision; and bombing in Iraq. Four More Years, Four More California Debates - a Day at the Races.   LK:  GOP needs a half-dozen points - Obamacare, immigration reform, defense, and growth growth growth.  Republicans need to speak with one voice! Tip of hat to Seth Lipsky: it's gotta be optimistic.  BW:  Also need to focus on North Carolina.  Foreign policy will continue as a major issue in the midterms – yes or no, bombing in Iraq. "How do you defeat an army without putting an army on the ground?"  LK: Also Syria.  JB:  I hear the president is making a speech tomorrow to [bail himself out] of his unforced error, "We don’t have a strategy."   Telegraph: ISIL turns young women into slaves; returned their cell phones to have them call families to say how excruciatingly horrible their captivity is – which apparently adds luster to their gruesome reputation in digital media. President's poll numbers slipping below 40%  LK: "Obamaism."

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block C:  David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Sr Congressional correspondent, in re: Pres Obama will make his speech at the White House State Room tomorrow.  What the two parties want from the president is a strategy for defeating IS, incl Syria and all elements of US power except US ground troops. Some GOP want Special Ops; nobody wants tanks.  I think the reason he was pushed into this speech is his low polls. and the fact that he's been getting a lot of heat from the Democrats.  Americans of both parties want about the same thing: get rid of IS HQ, the head of the snake.   Bill Nelson [leftish?] wants the US to get rid of ISIS.  Pres Obama has already delayed immigration to save Mark Pryor.  The argument, They’re coming for us – if they keep their real estate and their money, more than al Qaeda has – they won’t just stay at home.   Europe: Its already happened. The man who blew up people in the museum in Brussels is the one who tortured French journos in the Levant. [Jewish museum shooting suspect 'is Islamic State torturer': French journalist Nicolas Hénin describes beatings of Syrian prisoners while he was held captive by Mehdi Nemmouche]   Next week, Speaker Boehner will lay out his economic agenda.  President's speech at State Dept or the White House State Room?

It is hard to overstate the threat that this organization poses. I call it al Qaeda Version 6.0. The Islamic State is far better organized, equipped and funded than the original. They are more experienced and more numerous. Several thousand carry Western passports, including American ones. All the terrorists have to do is get on a plane and head west. But perhaps the most important asset they possess is territory. For the first time since 9/11, a determined and capable enemy has the space and security to plan complex, longer-range operations. If we don't think we are on that list, we are deluding ourselves.  GOP not giving up on Obamacare attacks, and the disaster of the ABC poll.

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 1, Block D: Lanhee Chen, Hoover, in re: Health spending as a share of the economy rose to 17.2% in 2013 from 16.2% in 2007 and will hit 19.3% in 2023, assuming that GDP grows as smartly as the auditors project. In other words, health care will soak up nearly one of every five U.S. dollars instead of one of six. Taxpayers will finance 48% of that spending a decade out, up from 41% in 2007. Thank you, Peter Orszag.

[Peter Richard Orszag is an American economist who's a Vice Chairman of Corporate and Investment Banking, Chairman of the Public Sector Group, and Chairman of the Financial Strategy and Solutions Group, at Citigroup.]

Hour Two

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus ;  author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re: It's very significant . . . the Ukrainian crisis of he as six months, which we've been treating as a [fight] between Russia and the US; now, it’s divided Europe.  Some old that Putin is headed toward the Baltics; others see it as a little burst of activity and needing negotiating.   Poland, the three Baltics and the UK (Cameron) are in the warlike, maximum-response position. On the other side are, first, Germany; also France , which has capitulated, and Spain and Italy.  In Cardiff, agreed to create a rapid force, 4,000 strong, with infrastructure – in Poland and the three Baltics and maybe Rumania. Meanwhile, Poroshenko had just agreed to a ceasefire with Russia.  Decision to compromise.  Behind the scenes: won’t allow publication of the list of sanctions, much  less putting them into effect. Huge historical changes.  Didier Burkhalter, OSCE: I'm not optimistic; we want to give it [the ceasefire] a chance.   Sergei Lavrov; The truce will be consolidated within days.   Pres Obama's Estonia speech, also the speech in Wales: both extremely hawkish, and based on misstatements. The stunning collapse of the Ukrainian army put Poroshenko in a tough position.  Large part of the Ukrainian force collapsed; they cut and ran.   . . . Still shooting around the Donetsk airport and Mariupol.  . . . Right now, it’s not the US that's the [favorable] influence, it's Putin and Lavrov – not because they’re virtuous, but because they need the ceasefire. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-08/eu-slows-new-russia-sanctions-a... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-06/ukraine-sees-cease-fire-holding...

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, in re: . . .  It’s said (by no means verified) that Putin and Poroshenko have a private side agreement: Poroshenko will go along with Putin if Putin helps Poroshenko stay in power.  This much alienates the Ukrainian fighters.   Wonder if Putin panicked on hearing that the rightist Ukrainian fighters were heading for the Crimean naval base n which Moscow is known to depend; that this may have been what activated the Russians originally.     http://en.itar-tass.com.

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, in re: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/05/nato-4000-rapid-reaction-fo...

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, in re:  . . .  about 6,000 people killed, most innocent civilians, and a million refugees. Can Ukraine be kept together? It’s divided families.  Further, can NATO hold together?  Ukraine is thought to  be able to hold together with a federal constitution but not only would Eastern Ukraine have its rights respected; so would the west which leans toward Europe.  Will have to have own local elected representatives. Very difficult tax revenues policy currently.  What can the federal govt do: make foreign policy?   Take the country into NATA?  Have to rule that Ukraine will always be a militarily nonaligned country, like Finland and others. Could create a suitable constitution in an hour – who can impose it?    Does Putin see Proshenko as an agent for this decentralized country? He probably sees that he won't find a better partner in Ukraine than Poroshenko . . . whose strength right now comes from his support in Europe and Washington. 

Hour Three

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block A: John Nicolson, Scottish journalist & political analyst; in re:  Keep the Queen out of Scottish referendum', warns Buckingham Palace

Stay with us: David Cameron's desperate plea to ScotsIndependent Scotland won't pay back debt, Alex Salmond says

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block B: John Nicolson, Scottish journalist & political analyst; in re: Scottish split would hit UK growth, warns top investment group

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block C: John Nicolson, Scottish journalist & political analyst; in re: The only word left to describe this Scottish referendum campaign is 'bizarre'

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 3, Block D: John Nicolson, Scottish journalist & political analyst; in re: Scottish independence: Cameron, Miliband and Clegg are right to take on smug Salmond

Hour Four

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block A:  Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re:  - Lambertville Road eerily remains the same bumpy local byway, from U.S. 30 to this small town, that it was 13 Septembers ago. Venerable trees still crowd its two lanes; mobile homes sprinkled among worn wood-frame houses appear unchanged.

But it is a rustic veneer tacked over a country that changed forever that awful day.

In the weeks after terrorists struck the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, after Flight 93 nosedived onto the fringe of this town, President George W. Bush — no matter what you thought of him politically — rose to the challenge. We can legitimately debate why we went to Iraq, the impact of the Patriot Act and a whole host of things, but deep down we cannot debate that Bush acted.

Barack Obama, who won the presidency largely because he was not George Bush, desperately wants to be what his voters were looking for — a domestic president done with wars, and not preoccupied with big foreign policy and national security issues.

You can see it in his eyes, his voice, his body language, in the lack of conviction in his words.

The reason there is no strategy, as he said, about Islamist terrorists in Syria (and why there likely won't be one) is that his brain trust — Valerie Jarrett and key people on his National Security Council — are nowhere near qualified to advise him on security issues; they focus more on domestic issues and politics than . . .

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block B: Bret Stephens, WSJ GLOBAL VIEW, in re: 
What Does Vladimir Putin Want?  
 Money, power, territory or revenge. The Russian strongman is after bigger game.

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block C:  Josh Rogin, , in re: GOP Offers Obama Unwanted ISIS War OK
 Senators are tripping over themselves to grant Obama the authority to go to war—but he’s not really interested in getting Congress’s permission.

Tuesday  9 September  2014 / Hour 4, Block D: Markos Kounalakis, Sacramento Bee, in re: The Risky Business of a Foreign Correspondent

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Scotland's leading independence campaigner Alex Salmond has lambasted a top financial magazine for claiming the country will end up like Greece if it leaves the United Kingdom. In an astonishing attack, Mr Salmond, the First Minister of Scotland, said The Economist would 'rue the day' it printed the 'sneering' front-page article.

The piece (see below), which is headlined 'Skintland', tells Scots they will become one of 'Europe's most vulnerable, marginal economies' if they vote for independence in the 2014 referendum. It warns that Scotland's North Sea oil will start to dry up in the next decade, its borrowing costs will be much higher, and entry to the European will not be automatic.

'After the banking and eurozone crises, Scotland would be far more vulnerable to shocks as a nation of five million people than as part of a diversified economy of 62 million,' write the authors. 'There is an irony here: to preserve a distinctively open-handed Scottish social model, staying in the Union might be the safest choice.' A spoof map of Scotland renames Edinburgh 'Edinborrow', and twins it with Athens.