Photo, above:  Penang, Nineteenth Century postcard. See Hour 1, Block C, Sadanand Dhume, AEI.

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-hosts; Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board.  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.

Hour One

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 1, Block A: David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Sr Congressional correspondent, in re: House votes: the Murray-Ryan deal.   House Passes Budget Pact and Military Abuse Protections, but Not Farm Bill  The House on Thursday approved a bipartisan budget accord and a Pentagon policy bill that would strengthen protections for victims of sexual assault. But as it wrapped up its business for the year, it left unfinished a major piece of domestic policy — the farm bill — making it likely that Congress will not deal with it until January. Republicans and Democrats hope the budget pact, which passed 332 to 94, will act as a truce in the spending battles that have paralyzed Congress for nearly three years, and leaders in both parties sought to marginalize hard-line conservatives opposed to any compromise. GOP: 169 vote; Dems: 103.

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 1, Block B:  Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re:  . . . Sharpton has been an enemy of the NYPD since Day One. He's never once recommended that Black youth join the NYPD. 

Bill Bratton wants to see NYPD supervisors' résumés ahead of his return as Commissioner
 
Incoming Police Commissioner Bill Bratton is demanding to see résumés from about 200 supervisors in . . .   Bratton Vs. Kelly 
Daily Beast   Bob McManus    Why morale surged in Bratton's NYPD - NY Daily News Paolucci: Policing in the early '90s seemed hopeless. New York was plagued with abandoned cars, burned-out buildings and more than 2000 ...

Bill Bratton vows to reform stop and frisk, says NYPD 'will get it right ...  Incoming NYC Police Commissioner Bill Bratton, the Rev. Al Sharpton and Mayor-elect Bill de Blasio share a light moment Saturday at National . . . 
 The Rev. Al Sharpton, introducing Bratton during a tribute to Nelson Mandela, says, ‘We want not only a city that doesn’t profile us, but we want a city of no crime and no violence because just as we're stopped disproportionately, we suffer crime disproportionately.’

Photo, below:  Penang, Second Street Bridge. See Hour 1, Block C, Sadanand Dhume, AEI.

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 1, Block C: Sadanand Dhume, AEI, in re:  in India, a strong showing in state elections has brightened the prospects of the opposition BJP winning national power next year, but it's still far from a shoo-in.  India: 1.2 billion people; dozens (hundreds) of languages; still hasn’t matured into a cohesive political entity. Rahul Gandhi: has been given power on a platter, is a seriously uninspiring speaker, has bad political instincts.  During that hideous rape he was on holiday and sent in his regrets.  Indian populace growing weary of dynastic politics.  . . .  India has failed to learn the lesson of its failed socialist past. 

India's BJP Still Faces a Tough Fight Thumping wins in state polls don't mean India's opposition party can count on victory in next year's national election.  Is India's main opposition party within sniffing distance of national power after nearly 10 years out in the cold? The short answer: The prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) look much brighter than before, but it's still far from a shoo-in.

In local election results announced Sunday, the BJP trounced its main rival, the ruling Congress Party, in four key states. By doing so, the BJP has announced that under its charismatic new leader, Narendra Modi, it's the party to beat in national elections due by next May.

BJP leaders L.K. Advani, Narendra Modi and Arun Jaitley celebrate victory. Reuters

The BJP won more than two-thirds of the 590-odd state assembly seats up for grabs Sunday. BJP incumbent governments retained power in two states (Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh) and scored a crushing win over Congress in Rajasthan, taking more than four-fifths of the seats in the state assembly. In Delhi, too, the BJP emerged as the single largest party. If the . . .  [more]

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 1, Block D:  Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics, in re: Senate Seats That Could Flip Parties in 2014   A lot of the commentary about the 2014 elections has focused on the limited opportunities for either party to gain in the House of Representatives. This is true even in the context of a 2010-like wave. In such a circumstance, it is difficult to envision Republican gains topping 20 seats, because there are so few Democrats representing vulnerable districts.

The Senate, however, is a different beast entirely. In a 2010-style environment, Republicans would almost certainly exceed their gain of seven seats that year (counting Scott Brown’s special election victory in January). The reason is simple: Democrats dodged a bullet in 2010 in terms of their playing field. Because 2004 had been a very good Republican year, where the GOP had won most of the competitive seats -- early analysis in 2009 suggested Democrats might actually expand on their filibuster-proof majority -- there just wasn’t much exposure for the president’s party.

But 2014 is different. The Democrats up for re-election this year won their seats in 2008, which was a Democratic wave year. Because of this, there is quite a lot of exposure for Obama’s party.  [more]

The Almanac of American Politics 2014 by Michael Barone, Chuck McCutcheon, Sean Trende, and Josh Kraushaar.

Hour Two

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 2, Block B: Andrew J. Tabler, Washington Institute, in re: Idris (Brigadier General Salim Idris is the Chief of Staff of the Supreme Military Council [SMC] of the Free Syrian Army) fled Syria to Turkey Syrian refugees: 1.2 million.  Lebanon: Palestinians who fled there in 1948 were a smaller group, see what that's led to.  Refugees probably will be displaced for a decade; have nowhere to return to, everything having been blown up – one-third of Syrian housing stock has been destroyed.   Maybe 50,000 fighters took their weapons into Lebanon, but most refugees are unarmed. FSA collapses.  Who’s ahead? Iran.  Quds Force in Syria winning strongly.  Iranians see activity in Syria as part and parcel of its domestic nuclear operations.

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 2, Block C: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:Palestinian negotiation with Kerry; Jordan River Valley security. 

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 2, Block D: Ali Alfoneh, FDD, in re: Zarif and Rouhani challenged by the IRGC; for the moment they’ve pushed back.  Rouhani very aware of the economic disaster, wants to be re-elected in future, knows that the only way to get economic relief from US is to slow down the nuclear program. IRGC trying to sabotage every piece of work Rouhani is engaged in, and everything from P5+1. IRGC controls 30% of the economy.  Rouhani said IRGC should stand above politics; that Iran needs IRGC to engage in major economic infrastructure projects "because of their knowledge."  Meaning: work with me and I'll give you access to cash. He's purged IRGC from _, and brought in bought people from other security apparatus.     Meanwhile, IRGC sabotages all talks in Geneva.  IRGC took over govt in June 2009; it was the US sanctions regime that was defeating the Revolutionary Guards.  Had he sanctions continued, the Iranian state could have gone bankrupt, which would have been dangerous to the IRGC. In Syria, where IRGC has its own infrastructure, want to use Syria as a bargaining chip, get concessions from the US.  More worrying: we do not know what happens if Iran's economy improves to the degree of letting IRGC push Rouhani out of office and have enough cash to run the country for, say, one year. Civilian control over IRGC not established.  More sanctions closes down the military dictatorship. 

Hour Three

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Eliot Engel - both Democrats and subject to White House pressure - have been strong and courageous in arguing in favor of sanctions on Iran – not alleviating them, probably increasing them, as it's only the sanctions that can oblige the mullahs to slow down their nuclear dvpt.  Had to reduce oil by tens of thousands of barrels.  Iran presses forward in nukes and in testing delivery systems: boasting about the accuracy of their missiles, which go 75 miles into the atmosphere.  Weaponization, Parchin and delivery system all not addressed in the P5+1.  American people see this, oppose the bad deal by two to one.  77% of Democrats and 90% of GOP want a Congressman who [opposes] Iranian nuclear dvpt.   German companies now busily sending dual-use parts to Iran.  The Syrian regime s doing very well. along with Iran. Islamic Front seized all of Idris's warehouses, facilities, operational centers.  Russian incendiary bombs.  Outflow of Syrian refugees can destabilize the entire region. Some even being forced into Bulgaria.  /  Jerusalem is under ten inches of snow!  Also affected Lebanon and Syria, esp the refugees.  Kerry couldn’t land in Israel yesterday. Arrived now, talking again about the Jordan river valley. Palestinians wrapping rocks n snow, casting them as snowballs when they're dangerous weapons. 

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 3, Block B: Khaled Abu Toameh, an Arab Muslim, is a veteran award-winning journalist who's been covering Palestinian affairs for decades; in re: Peace process, Kerry, Palestinians. Kerry switched itinerary, went directly to Ramallah.  Not known why. Proposal of ten-year Israeli presence in the Jordan Valley for basic security: rejected by Palestinians. Floating notion of a US presence; Israelis might not care for that.  Talk of a Second Oslo Agreement – interim; phased plan, which Abbas has rejected, Kerry suddenly realizes that you can’t solve this century-old problem in short order, so turns to another Oslo-style agreement pledging to implement a peach ever phases. Gen Allen (who now has a staff of 120 people!)  proposes a plan for the day after?  "Kerry wants a deal at any cost to present to the media as a huge achievement – wants to leave a historic legacy.  Trying to force both sides to sign." A pattern: Potemkin agreement in Geneva, and now a Potemkin agreement in Ramallah. 

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 3, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: The coolant systems failure on ISS might delay next week’s Cygnus cargo mission. [T]he reduced cooling capability means there’s less of a safety margin on the station. Todd said mission managers don’t want to risk having the Cygnus come in for a hookup under such conditions. “While we’re sitting at one loop, we’re somewhat vulnerable,” he said.

The logic here escapes me. It suggests they will stop all cargo missions to ISS until the coolant problem is solved. However, what if they can’t solve it without a spacewalk? To do that spacewalk they have to deliver an upgraded spacesuit to the station to replace the suit that had water leak problems in July, and that delivery is not scheduled until late February when the next Dragon cargo launch is scheduled.

Maybe they're considering putting that replacement suit on the Cygnus capsule so it can arrive quickly. If so, that would justify delaying the Cygnus launch for a few days.  More details about the situation here. If a US spacewalk on ISS is necessary to repair its cooling system, the spare parts are there, but the spacesuits are not.

Prior to retiring the shuttle NASA, aware that cargo supply would be limited once the shuttle was gone, shipped up to the station as many spare parts as possible. Thus, there are three spare pump modules on ISS that could be installed during a spacewalk to replace the module that has the valve problem.

However, because of the water leak problem that occurred in one American spacesuit during a July spacewalk, NASA has halted all American spacewalks until replacement suits can be shipped up to the station.

Since then, NASA has been conducting extensive investigations into the water leak issue, with… “the crew performed a series of tests on EMU 3011 [the faulty spacesuit] as part of an ongoing effort for returning the suit back to service. The tests included water leak checks, communication checks, and suit pressure leak checks. EMU 3011 passed all tests.”

However, NASA had been planning to wait to return another EMU, serial number 3015, to Earth aboard a SpaceX Dragon vehicle and deliver a new EMU in its place before clearing EVAs to resume. However the next Dragon vehicle is not scheduled to arrive at the ISS until at least late February next year.

The Russians might be able to do this spacewalk, but they're going to demand payment for the work. And they won’t come cheap, considering the circumstances.

India’s Mangalyaan Mars probe successfully completed its first midcourse correction maneuver today. As with the images the probe took of Earth, the success of this maneuver demonstrates the ability of the probe’s engineers to control, operate, and precisely point the spacecraft’s engine. It also proves that engine works as designed.

Cultural tidbit: Of the 200,000 people who've applied to Mars One to go on its proposed one-way mission to Mars, India has the second most applicants after the U.S.

Mars One applicants come from over 140 countries; the largest numbers are from the US (24 per cent), India (10 per cent), China (6 per cent), Brazil (5 per cent), UK, Canada, Russia and Mexico (4 per cent), Philippines, Spain, Colombia and Argentina (2 per cent), and Australia, France, Turkey, Chile, Ukraine, Peru, Germany, Italy and Poland (1 per cent).

78,000 People Apply for One-Way Trip to Mars The mission aims to send a crew to the Red Planet in 2022. An ambitious project to establish a human colony on Mars has attracted applications from tens of thousands of would-be astronauts, just two weeks after applications opened.  The mission, a private venture by the Dutch non-profit organization Mars One, aims to send a crew to the Red Planet in 2022 – and, due to the physiological change in the human body after a stay on Mars, there’d be no coming back. That hasn’t deterred people, though: so far, over 78,000 people have applied to become one of Mars’ first immigrants (the company is expecting 500,000 applicants by the time applications close on August 31). “This is turning out to be the most desired job in history,” says Bas Lansdorp, co-founder of Mars One.

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 3, Block D:   Tunku Varadarajan, author & Daily Beast Emeritus, in re:  The Supreme Court of India has a posterior-fixation. In a ruling so medieval as to call into question the fitness of its judges to preside over the tussles of a 21st-century society, the court overturned a four-year-old decision of the High Court in New Delhi, which had ruled that the criminalization of “unnatural offences” under Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code—enacted as law by the very Victorian British in 1861—was in violation of the 1950 Constitution of independent India."   . . . [more]

Hour Four

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 4, Block A:    Flight of the Eagle: The Grand Strategies That Brought America from Colonial Dependence to World Leadership by Conrad Black (1 of 4)

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 4, Block B: Flight of the Eagle: The Grand Strategies That Brought America from Colonial Dependence to World Leadership by Conrad Black (2 of 4)

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 4, Block C: Flight of the Eagle: The Grand Strategies That Brought America from Colonial Dependence to World Leadership by Conrad Black (3 of 4)

Thursday  12 December  2013 / Hour 4, Block D: Flight of the Eagle: The Grand Strategies That Brought America from Colonial Dependence to World Leadership by Conrad Black (4 of 4)

..  ..  ..

Hour 1:  Inception. Invasion. India & the Kingdom of the Tiger. Game of Thrones.

Hour 2:  Persia.

Hour 3:  Babylon A.D.  Starship Troopers. Immortals.

Hour 4:  Immortals. 

..  ..  ..