The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 11 June 2015

Air Date: 
June 11, 2015

Image, left: Clair MacDougall photo on Twitter: Habe tribeswomen in #Nigeria pounding grain.  See: Hour 1, Block C, Clair MacDougall, West Africa resident and reporter.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW  
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com.  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com; in re: . . .  Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing Rule: US cities are unintentionally discriminating against poor people of color, so Feds should go in to communities to order activities; to color-code suburbia according to who's doing what where.  "The problem is not zoning; it's lack of hard work and of opportunity; look at the core problems: education and job skills."
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 1, Block B:  Edward W Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re:  . . .  Bratton: not enough Black cops in New York because so many Black youth grow up inadequately supervised.  New or has 5,000 Latino police, and many many persons of all ethnic, religious, cultural backgrounds.   Stop, question and frisk was immensely successful. It's unpopular is some quarters now, but what the city needs it [a more courteous] police force to carry on the successful stop, question, frisk. 
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 1, Block C: Clair MacDougall, West Africa resident and reporter, free-lance correspondent in Liberia and Sierra Leone for the past year; in re:  Epidemic overwhelmed a region. We spoke with her in August 2014 in Monrovia; collapse of governance.  Hospital ceased t function since the govt wouldn’t guarantee welfare for workers's families if the workers died. Te in West Point there was a shooting.   A slogan to enist public engagement: "Ebola is real."  Until then, many citizens thought perhaps the ebola scare was bogus; not a lot of trust in the govt historically – a civil war, then before that a ruling elite that robbed the country blind.  NGOs decided not to quarantine people, educated people about ebola. Where was the WHO – the World Health Organization?   Early on, its regional ofc neglected to respond; only five months later that an intl health emergency was declared.  The WHO is a political patronage organization, a nice Hong Kong lady. It was politically useful to declare ebola solved – it wasn’t.  The word thought the WHO was protecting the world, when in fact it was protecting its jobs.  Finally, the situation turned around after individuals were empowered with information.   Ebola is opportunistic: it goes to the weakest, so it prospers under bad governance.  Borders are porous; Liberia suffered two epidemics, one from Guinea and one from Sierra Leone.  Clair lived through the plague year.  Currently MER is in Korea, where there's not camel except n a zoo.  How did Clair survive? Some months were worse than others.
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 1, Block D: Mona Charen, syndicated columnist; Senior Fellow, Ethics & Public Policy Center; NRO; in re: . . .  The GOP is associated in voters's minds with rich white people.  In fact, Republicans have something to contribute to the discussion of what's right and wrong with US governance.  Mrs Clinton's speech shows she intends to win ugly, yes?  Yes.
Hour Two
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 2, Block A:  Rep. Eliot Lance Engel (NY-16), in re: Iran. IAEA report that Iran's nuclear stockpile has been increasing. Is June 30 a meaningful date?  We haven’t  been erinmuch these last few weeks; dunno what they’re negotiating. They may nmeet the June 30 deadline but not clear. Devil is in the details. There are troubling things abut Iran; the two main ones from Day One: a year and a half ago  we should have said, to negotiate in good faith, you stop enriching while we’re talking,. Six f seven UN resolutions tot heat effect; no compliance.      Also, we’re not talking about Iran's funding of intl terrorism, putting Americans on trial; putting the bureau chief of the Washington Post on trial during negotiations. We’ve been missing the boat with Iran of 15 years.  We could have gone after them long ago but this is the eleventh hour.  The Majlis (parliament) met yesterday, passed a bill on how the govt is to act in striking nuclear deal  it  has details we don't. Also: IAEA may not have any access there other than conventional.  The __ minster said the deal will not be in effect forever [or for all that long].  For me, inspections have to be unimpeded and plentiful. Also need to look at the proposed removal of sanctions – not acceptable except as tit for tat. When they comply a little , we release the sanctions a little.   . . . We don't know how much is bluster and how much is real. I'm suspicious Iran for many years has supported terrorism, defied intl will.  In fairness, we need to look at the alternative: if no agreement, would be bombing of nuclear facility, but that's back into war.
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 2, Block B: Omri Ceren, Israel Project senior advisor for strategy, & USC doctoral candidate; in re: Soleimani, under a travel ban, is so routinely pictured in Iran. Lebanon, everywhere. He's an enemy of the P5+1, of the US – why don't we hit him?  Hudson, FDD, everybody says, If you assume the US is pursuing realignment with Iran, it all makes sense.  Why not hit Assad, or the Shia militias? Because we [apparently] think the Shia are the future of the Middle East.  How about releasing the sanctions billions – will they go to the Iranian people? To Hamas and Hezbollah? Pres Obama says $150 billion in escrow for Iran. Most people say, "It'll go directly into Iran's warfighting machine."  Pres Obama says it’ll go to roads and infrastructure. Treasury Secy Jack Lew says Iran spends "a pittance" on war.  We know that's completely true.   Story broke at end of April and more today at WSJ (Sohrab Ahmari):  a small Lebanese civil organization was formed to say, "Really religious Shia: you don't have to embrace Hezbollah. You can be a good Shia and not work with Hezbollah."  Then the State Dept sent a letter to the people running this organization: "We're shifting our priorities and cutting you off." US is giving Hellfire 2 missiles, and aircraft, to Hezbollah under the guise of the Lebanese armed forces. 
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 2, Block C: Eric Trager, Washington Institute specialist on Egyptian politics and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood; in re:  A group including Ikhwan, incl the leader of an anti-Sisi crew, went to the White House. Recall that Steny Hoyer met with revolutionaries; that the MB was invited to Pres Obama's Cairo address. What’s changed since the ouster of Morsi is that the Egyptian govt regards Morsi & Ikhwan as existential threats.    Egyptians say that the Raffah buffer zone is a success; other govts don't agree. Egyptians haven’t transitioned from a land war army (in plain English, an army designed to fight Israel) to being a counterinsurgency army – heavy-handed tactics, collective punishment, taking out civilian homes and alienating the population. Judged a failure. However, for the first time in recent history Cairo is taking Sinai seriously.  Yesterday was the first attack on MFO.  Rockets out of Gaza to provoke Israel; groups are claiming to be ISIS, not Hamas.  ISIS is gaining many supporters because of the situation in Sinai, where there are roughly a thousand ISIS fighters and gaining.  They often head into Gaza to take a break or get medical attention. Egypt has cleared over a thousand homes and displaced people to create a buffer zone.  To bring the PA and Hamas to some sort of understanding?  This Cairo govt is in a significant battle with MB so is not much trusted at all by Hamas.  In the 2014 summer Gaza war, US dithered.  Cairo is more or less just waiting for a new US administration, although this one has finally released some military aid. Russian naval exercise? Might see more with Egypt, which currently sends soldiers to Russia to train.
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 2, Block D: Steven A. Cook, Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; in re: Turkish elections.
Hour Three
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: reports that the Russians are getting ready to bail out of Syria, and also that they're not. Emergency mtgs in Teheran and Moscow, and the Russians returned to a large degree, but have already pulled out major resources.  Latakia naval base (Russia's only in the Med); Moscow has left some but not all critical personnel in Syria.  Russia's interest in Syria is not about conquest, but about maintaining a certain kind of balance. They fear that if Assad falls, they’ll be unwelcome.  Russians walk on eggshells there, have no constituency to support them there.  There are 60,000 Russian army officers in Syria.  Now Iran: without Damascus, can sustain itself but it needs Syria or the Shia Crescent, supply route to Lebanon. Few people will align themselves to Iran if Syria falls.  Iranian penetration into Africa of Iran. Iran – and, indeed, terrorists – thrive on weakness. Iran spending $6 bil PA in Syria alone (actually, probably closer to $14 bil.  ISIS gangs: a genuine threat to Hamas; they’re killing each other.  Israel has sent bldg materials to 83,00 families;  Hamas creating tunnel bombs: explode huge bombs inside the tunnel under opposition sites. (Cf: 1864.)   Orange Network: the CEO is in Israel today;  has done a 180-degree turn from his statements of the other day, used by BDS movement.
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 3, Block B: Efraim Inbar, professor in political studies at Bar-Ilan University; in re: Gaza, Turkey, Europe.  European peace offensive: decided a hundred years of conflict in the Hold Land is enough, telling Israelis they’re fed up.  French plan to Security Council to end the conflict within 18 months. [Hunh?]  Palestinians not willing to come to the table, Euro efforts are naïve.  Palestinians won’t talk to Israel, will internationalize the talks.   Israel can’t quite welcome this; neither must it overemphasize this specific effort – it's hardly the first.  With  hundreds of thousands dead in Syria and others in Iraq and elsewhere, the Euros are obsessed with Israel and Palestine, which can merely be a nuisance, since neither can  influence the price of oil or much else.  Golan Heights:  conflict continues; Iran and Hezb trying to establish a front there, prevented by force by Israel.   Dangers to Kurds in Jabal-Druze (near the border).
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 3, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 3, Block D:   Thomas Goltz, , in re: http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkeyelections-special-coverage-by-hurriyet-daily-news.aspx?PageID=238&NID=83579&NewsCatID=338
 
Hour Four
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 4, Block A: Kara Scannell, FT.com, in re: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d1b49f0a-0f7f-11e5-897e-00144feabdc0.html#slide0
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 4, Block B:  John Rosengren, author, in re: Dr. Fan is a bit of an odd duck but also a colorful subject. He lives with two cats and a lifesize mannequin of President James Garfield in a 19th century house he has converted into a museum. Plus A-Rod.    [more]
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 4, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: During the many officiating problems of the 2010 World Cup, Blatter said that “uncertainty and subjectivity boost the sport.” They actually do the exact opposite. Here are some of the most serious problems with soccer: First, soccer is an under-officiated game. A soccer field is larger than an American football field, yet on the field the game has only one referee and two linesmen, each of whom patrols only one half the field from the sideline. Basketball uses three officials on a far smaller court. Hockey has two referees, two linesmen, and a video judge for goals. The thin officiating corps leads to all sorts of unnecessary errors that are apparent to every fan who has the benefit of replay equipment. Doubling the number of officials should reduce the number of errors. Second, soccer has an atrocious penalty structure. The hockey rules for penalties are far superior . . .  (1 of 2)
Thursday  11 June  / Hour 4, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: During the many officiating problems of the 2010 World Cup, Blatter said that “uncertainty and subjectivity boost the sport.” They actually do the exact opposite. Here are some of the most serious problems with soccer: First, soccer is an under-officiated game. A soccer field is larger than an American football field, yet on the field the game has only one referee and two linesmen, each of whom patrols only one half the field from the sideline. Basketball uses three officials on a far smaller court. Hockey has two referees, two linesmen, and a video judge for goals. The thin officiating corps leads to all sorts of unnecessary errors that are apparent to every fan who has the benefit of replay equipment. Doubling the number of officials should reduce the number of errors. Second, soccer has an atrocious penalty structure. The hockey rules for penalties are far superior . . .  (2 of 2)
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