Photo, left: The Antonov An-124 Ruslan (Ukrainian: Антонов Ан-124 "Руслан") (NATO reporting name: Condor) is a strategic airlift jet aircraft. It was designed by the Antonov design bureau in the Ukrainian SSR, then part of the Soviet Union (USSR). Until the Boeing 747-8F, the An-124 was, for thirty years, the world's highest aircraft gross weight production cargo airplane and second heaviest operating cargo aircraft, behind the one-off Antonov An-225 (a greatly enlarged design based on the An-124). The An-124 remains the largest military transport aircraft in the world. See: Lee Smith, Hour Two, Block A.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday 17 September / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, in re: the Fed decided to keep the Fed funds rate at zero for largest customers, so Wall St can borrow taxpayers money at zero and lend it out for money. 
Danielle DiMartino Booth worked under Rick Fisher, a Dallas Fed hawk; from zero to 0.25% makes a difference? Last time the Fed raised interest rates was in June 2006 – before iPhones existed.   Where does the money that's not in banks actually go - into stock market? commercial property (which is now 20% higher than at the peak of the bubble)?  Has the Federal Reserve missed a cycle – healthy economy, co's compete for workers, wages rise, eventually Fed raises rates to cool down the economy. The normal cycle is now missed by years; what unexpected problems are accruing?
The problem now is the uncertainty that damages our market – firms have no notion of the contours of he cycle, so do not invest. "Rules-based Fed" says John Taylor – we have no rules. MK: That depends on looking backward; I'd refer that the Congress get rid of the Fed's dual mandate – inflation and jobs – and hew to original obligation: only control inflation.  The problem is the layers of reed tape, crushing tax burden, crippling of our most productive industries.
Thursday 17 September / Hour 1, Block B: David Davenport, Hoover, in re: Jeb Bush, son of and brother of US presidents; as Bush 45, he had to defend (and then slightly veer away from) family deeds.  Yes, he's a bit stuck in the past.  Good Florida governor, and is a policy wonk with a book on immigration, and has done work on K-12 education.  Has trouble packaging it up. Is awkward on stage. Sound bites are not his strength. He has little of his father's wimp factor, can't carry and project his own height and strength.  We need Jeb Bush to explain what he'll do for us as president. Needs only a few minutes to convey his vision.  he's trying to be a "reform conservative" and a moderate.  In the little-watched first debate, there was a complex discussion of immigration.  Trump has introduced immigration that no one wanted to talk about - walls, sending large numbers home.  Carson: I'll let them work, not obtain legal status.  I think there's still a strong silent minority of Americans who think that people who came illegally should, by rule of law, go home.  John Kasich: the one guy who made govt experience sound favorable
Thursday 17 September / Hour 1, Block C:  John Roskam, Executive Director, [Australian] Institute of Public Affairs, in re:  Clark and Dawe – hilarious Australian videos poking fun at politics.  They repeat the platitudes our pols say.  Tony Abbott "had a spill," which took only several hours.  Parliamentary system.   . . . Malcolm Turnbull – not a conservative, but who's promised to address economic matters.  I'm hoping he's a supply-sider. Is distrusted by many in the Liberal party.  Jeremy Corbyn is now leading Labour in a fashion said to be "over a cliff." British Labour is now thoroughly left; and we have Bernie Sanders. Has the Anglosphere gone [bananas]? I'd like to have a Libertarian Jeremy Corbyn.   Turnbull was a cap-and-trader, has now sworn to reduce emissions by other means – although no one has ever explained how Australia's reducing emissions will help the world. How about Malcolm Turnbull gets on a plane to visit President Sanders and the two go off to see PM Corbyn?
     Reading the Corbyn news can feel as if I've stepped into a Trollopian send-up.  A Mad-Hatter Tea Party of a Trollopian send-up.  "Minister for Jews!"  We are expected he will apologize to the Colonies for 1812 if not for 1759 and 1774!  And he might entertain reparations to New South Wales descendants. The Crown can assume it will be confiscated for debts.  And how soon will the bankers flee.
    Corbyn would be a disaster for the Labour Party - and if, heaven forbid, he ever became prime minister, he'd be a disaster for the country. Which is why Tony Blair and practically every senior and serious Labour leader have urged the party to pick anyone but Corbyn. On all the evidence Corbyn is unelectable. Yet the slight nagging worry of the British ruling class is that he might not be. And there's a precedent.
    There once was a candidate for their party's leadership who was similarly described as unelectable - who was "extremist" and "class-conscious" - and who would shift their party from the "middle ground" and consign it to electoral oblivion. The Economist magazine said of the leadership aspirant that they were "precisely the sort of candidate... who ought to be able to stand, and lose, harmlessly". That candidate, of course, was Margaret Thatcher, and the year was 1975.
Thursday 17 September / Hour 1, Block D: Mona Charen, NRO, in re: Carly Fiorina  - how long has thet GOP pined for a candidate who can handle abortion with the passion and skill that Fiorina did?  She had command of so many subjects. Such stature that I compared her to Margaret Thatcher.  She marshalls facts with unusual skill – it may  have been honed in her California race; Newt Gingrich said, "I ran for Congress and lost, and learned far more from losing than from winning elections."  She's been enjoying this!  Mark Twain: "In Heaven with all of history's greatest commanders – Napoleon Alexander, et al. -  to hear the greatest of all days – a man on the stage who was a shoemaker from Vienna.  Who's he? The greatest commander of all time – who never was given a chance to lead. "   Women, and esp single women, seem to favor Democrats, but a bright and articulate  female with enormous grasp of issues might gather their favor.  "Women are not a special interest; we're over half the population!"
 
Hour Two
Thursday 17 September / Hour 2, Block A:  Lee Smith, The Tablet, and author of The Strong Horse: Power, Politics, and the Clash of Arab Civilizations, in re: implications for Israel of Russia activity. At least two Antonov AN124s, Condors, have been flying daily into Latakia, the Russian port in Syria, bldg a defensive perimeter around the airbase to support Assad's regime with the full might of the Russian military, T90 tanks artillery Sukhoi 25s – and MiG31s, air support bridge to Russia.  Expect marines to guard the perimeter of the port.  MIL28 helicopters. Lee Smith: This will destabilize the Middle East – supporting the Assad regime, not absolutely not to fight ISIS; help Assad hold bits of territory that Assad hasn't been able to held. The Weekly Standard piece: Look what Putin wants out of Syria t0 to project power from the Eastern Med and collect rent. he US has ceded Middle East leadership to Putin, who's outsmarted everoyone else. Soleimani (head of Quds Forces and chief strategist) is visiting Moscow again. Russia and Iran are coordinating strategy.  The Obama Adm has tied its interests in the Levant to Iranian access.  Senators astonished to hear Gen Austin say that after all the time and money spent have produced on four or five men fighting ISIS. US obliged candidates sign a document refusing to fight Assad, fight only Assad , and none will do that. US like the Russians if =d protecting Assad.  This pits them against Israel.  Extremely dangerous for both Israel and the US – I fear this Administration has made a serious mistake that will lead us into grave trouble.   Pres Obama seems to think that Putin will do our laundry.  When Israelis want to stop arms convoys, Russia will charge. [?] Putin will take something out of everyone. Israel must be able to control its own strategic region.
Thursday 17 September / Hour 2, Block B: Jeffrey White, defense Fellow at The Washington Institute, in re:  . . .  also at least two battalions; some helos seen, not clear, but logical for Russians to put in a combat aircraft package.  Also SA22s – a modern, capable SAM missile system – reported coming.  Turkey & Bulgaria refused Russian overflights, so it's using Iran.  . . .  If the Russians actually begin flying over Syria, . . . will Russia protect Kurds? My take is a direct effort to support the Assad regime. Also not too concerned about ISIS.  Aleppo? Russians flying over Hama area, will go to the battlefields they think are truly important.  What does Assad need to be saved?  Netanyahu will go to Moscow; can it prevent transshipment of weapons to Hezbollah? I doubt it. SAM22 is a game-changer.  Where they're operating, the Israelis won't be flying, so Israel can't bomb what it sees as endangering activities in Syria. Can Israel send in ground troops? Yikes – would mean maybe engaging Russian troops.
Thursday 17 September / Hour 2, Block C:  Mike Singh, Senior Fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute, in re:  Iran, Syria, Russia in Syria. What happens next: the Congressional review period is over; Administration has appointed Ambassador Stephen D. Mull as Lead Coordinator for Iran Nuclear Implementation. Deal won't; be implemented till spring 2016, and Iran has a lot to do , incl w IAEA. Report due on 15 Dec.  Stonewalling on PMD – past mil dvpts, the base from which to measure future activities. We see arms deals and sales taking pace in violation of sanctions. Options?  On weaponization, Iran will stonewall, but the question is, what will we do? We need incremental penalties for accord violation; get EU and partners to impose new sanctions for terrorism, human rights violations, etc.  If the US did it all alone using only banking and energy-sector sanctions, that'd have impact. What gives us leverage is that we alone can cause the deal to terminate, to snap back the old sanctions.  Iran provokes to give itself appearance of power, incl in Arab world – will destroy Israel and the Jews, for example. Internally there's a struggle within the regime over what happens next – Rouhani vs Khamenei (Qasem Soleimani is involved) . . .  Rouhani will be hard-pressed to produce more growth in an unchanging Iranian system. There's an argument that Putin is overextending himself in Syria. Could turn around on him, esp if the Russian economy doesn't pick up.   Any increase in US support for the Poroshenko administration might cause Russia to shut the whole thing down. Russia doesn't play to back down. Does the US understand Russia's role in the Middle East?   . . . One of our problems in Ukraine and Russia is that the US hasn't defined its own policy for itself. 
Thursday 17 September / Hour 2, Block D: Seth M. Siegel, lawyer & serial entrepreneur; & author, Let There Be Water: Israel’s Solution for a Water-Starved World, in re:  California aquifers took 10,000 years to fill, drained in a few decades by very bad management. A lot of Cali farmers are using Israeli-invented drip irrigation. Hydrodiplomacy:  . . . Nabateans anciently collected the morning dew to water their crops. Israel has adopted a multifaceted approach to solving the water problem.  Israel began in the 1930s a masterplan: reformed agriculture sector with drip irrigation; reclamation of sewage water to ulraclean for crops, and a water-respecting culture. Excellent governance and a smart pricing structure - the funds are used for water infrastructure to reduce leaks and other problems.
 
Hour Three
Thursday 17 September / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: France has turned suspicious – more active – anent Iran's interest to sustain Assad. Laurent Fabius: foreign fighters trained in Raqqah now planning to carry out attacks in France, proper; thus France's air strikes are to deter and prevent.  ISIS is boasting that the next phase of its plan – Plan 202o extended – is to inject 4,000 to 5,000 lone wolf attacks to discourage the US from pushing back in to oppose Iran. ISIS and Iran are not mortal enemies, both have an interest in disrupting Europe and the US. Sunni Iraq has been abandoned to Iran.  Cooperation is tactical.  Iran gains from the Islamic State. Iran released 5 top al Qaeda leaders held by Iran – all masterminds of attacks on the US. Western intell considers this a major threat. Released in exchange for an Iranian dip captured in Yemen (and now released).  Congress finally sees Iranian collaboration with North Korea, which will reeive a few bil out of the $150bil to be released, and that won't be a violation of the Vienna Accord An Iranian airline is flying to Europe and Syria: weapons and personnel, all violations of Security Council 1747 and 1929.  Iran is allowed to buy spare parts, but now is in fact buying new aircraft. Openly negotiating with Russia to buy hundreds of planes and will have the money to do it.  Rep Pat Meehan (R-PA) is looking to force Iran to pay $3.5 billion in judgments accumulated over the years, but the White House seems to be trying to prevent Iran from having to pay anything.  White House is protecting Iran from its obligations under civil courts to pay for the terror it's launched and carried out over years.  Recall the Fifth Avenue Allawi Foundation bldg. 
 
Thursday 17 September / Hour 3, Block B: Micky Rosenfeld, Chief Inspector, foreign press spokesman for the Israeli police; in re: Yom Kippur begins on Tuesday night, then Sukkoth; holy days for several weeks.  Orthodox walk to Western Wall, below the Temple Mount. (Only one out of four or five American Jews has visited Israel.)  Police concerned about Muslim extremists on the Temple Mount, where there's a gathering each Friday on Temple Mount above the Western Wall.  Expected Israeli Arabs to create disturbances now; age limit: cordoned off for men aged 40 or over, plus women and young  boys.  The reports of "stone throwing" are misleading: these are actual boulders launched from above, nearly killed a passing US Congressman.  Abbas said that Jews and Christians are denied access to their holiest sites.  "The hatred is unacceptable."  Israeli police are responsible to allow each of the three religions to attend their own site.  Western Wall, and the Old City. Every evening in Jerusalem we have 20-30,00 people walking through the streets with no problem whatsoever. Correct: these are large, heavy blocks thrown from rooftops at Israeli officers, not at all small stones.  The majority of the Arab population do not want to be involved in any disturbance. Problem is incited by individual extremists, people spontaneously staying overnight in Temple Mount.  Escalated by Jordan, Saudis, others. Palestinians are trying to bring Jerusalem into violence: politically and with physical attacks. More than 80 extra police officers patrolling, mostly quite successfully. 
 
Thursday 17 September / Hour 3, Block C: Daniel Henninger, WSJ, in re: The Joy of Madness   Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and the mad-as-hell American electorate
 
Thursday 17 September / Hour 3, Block D: Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re:   
http://www.govexec.com/oversight/2015/09/legislation-would-give-va-health-care-workers-mspb-appeal-rights-if-theyre-fired/120902/  ;   http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/benefits/veterans/2015/09/15/fbis-role-tomah-va-case-under-senate-scrutiny/72305356/  ;   
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/benefits/veterans/2015/09/16/amvets-cva-task-force/72311522/
 
Hour Four
Thursday 17 September / Hour 4, Block A: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Astronomers find no evidence of nearby alien civilizations New observations of the best candidate galaxies now suggests that very advanced civilizations are very rare or don’t exist in the local universe. They looked at several hundred nearby galaxies that emitted a high amount of mid-infrared radiation, which could possibly be produced as the waste heat from civilizations using energy on galactic scales.
Professor Michael Garrett (ASTRON & University of Leiden) has used radio measurements of the very best candidate galaxies and discovered that the vast majority of these systems present emission that is best explained by natural astrophysical processes. In particular, the galaxies as a sample, follow a well-known global relation that holds for almost all galaxies – the so-called “Mid-Infrared Radio correlation”. The presence of radio emission at the levels expected from the correlation, suggests that the mid-IR emission is not heat from alien factories but more likely emission from dust – for example, dust generated and heated by regions of massive star formation.
As Professor Garrett explains: “the original research at Penn State has already told us that such systems are very rare but the new analysis suggests that this is probably an understatement, and that advanced Kardashev Type III civilisations basically don’t exist in the local Universe. In my view, it means we can all sleep safely in our beds tonight – an alien invasion doesn’t seem at all likely!”
Joking aside, Professor Garrett is still looking at a few candidate galaxies that lie off of the astrophysical correlation: “Some of these systems definitely demand further investigation but those already studied in detail turn out to have a natural astrophysical explanation too. It’s very likely that the remaining systems also fall into this category but of course it’s worth checking just in case!” Obviously, the uncertainty of these results is quite high. Nonetheless, the results indicate that either humanity really is the only intelligent species in this part of the universe, or advanced civilizations are far more efficient in their use of energy than is reasonable to assume.
Thursday 17 September / Hour 4, Block B:  LouAnn Hammond, DrivingtheNation, in re: Apple and Google Create a Buzz at Frankfurt Motor Show
Thursday 17 September / Hour 4, Block C: Chris Dixon, NYT, in re: Do Humans Have a Future in Deep Sea Exploration? A government laboratory in Hawaii has made important deep-sea discoveries with piloted submersibles. But dwindling budgets and increased use of robots threaten to close the operation. (1 of 2)
Thursday 17 September / Hour 4, Block D: Chris Dixon, NYT, in re: Do Humans Have a Future in Deep Sea Exploration? A government laboratory in Hawaii has made important deep-sea discoveries with piloted submersibles. But dwindling budgets and increased use of robots threaten to close the operation. (2 of 2)
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