Photo, left: aerodreadnaughts in China.
Shades of the Nineteenth Century: "China became weak and fell behind the technology race because poor leadership.   Its emperors were more concerned with maintaining internal control, and didn't realize the significance of the west innovations." See Hour 1, Block D. Michael Auslin: "At the upcoming state dinner for Xi, need to discuss not a China that's too strong, but a China that's too weak" – and a weak China is a dangerous one.
From The Diplomat of January 2014, by Ian Easton:  . . . Not to be outdone by the conventional army, China’s powerful strategic rocket troops, the Second Artillery Force, still uses cavalry units to patrol its sprawling missile bases deep within China’s vast interior. Why? Because it doesn’t have any helicopters. Equally scarce in China are modern fixed-wing military aircraft. So the Air Force continues to use a 1950s Soviet designed airframe, the Tupolev Tu-16, as a bomber (its original intended mission), a battlefield reconnaissance aircraft, an electronic warfare aircraft, a target spotting aircraft, and an aerial refueling tanker. Likewise, the PLA uses the Soviet designed Antonov An-12 military cargo aircraft for ELINT (electronic intelligence) missions, ASW (anti-submarine warfare) missions, geological survey missions, and airborne early warning missions. It also has an An-12 variant specially modified for transporting livestock, allowing sheep and goats access to remote seasonal pastures.
But if China’s lack of decent hardware is somewhat surprising given all the hype surrounding Beijing’s massive military modernization program, the state of “software” (military training and readiness) is truly astounding. At one military exercise in the summer of 2012, a strategic PLA unit, stressed out by the hard work of handling warheads in an underground bunker complex, actually had to take time out of a 15-day wartime simulation for movie nights and karaoke parties. In fact, by day nine of the exercise, a “cultural performance troupe” (common PLA euphemism for song-and-dance girls) had to be brought into the otherwise sealed facility to entertain the homesick soldiers.  . . .  Abraham Lincoln once observed that if he had six hours to chop down a tree he would spend the first four hours sharpening his axe. Clearly the PLA is not sharpening its proverbial axe. Nor can it. Rather, it has opted to invest in a bigger axe, albeit one that is still dull. Ironically, this undermines Beijing’s own aspirations for building a truly powerful 21st century military.
. . . Yet while there is ample and growing evidence to suggest China could, through malice or mistake, start a devastating war in the Pacific, it is highly improbable that the PLA’s strategy could actually win a war. Take a Taiwan invasion scenario, which is the PLA’s top operational planning priority. While much hand-wringing has been done in recent years about the shifting military balance in the Taiwan Strait, so far no one has been able to explain how any invading PLA force would be able to cross over 100 nautical miles of exceedingly rough water and successfully land on the world’s most inhospitable beaches, let alone capture the capital and pacify the rest of the rugged island.
The PLA simply does not have enough transport ships to make the crossing, and those it does have are remarkably vulnerable to Taiwanese anti-ship cruise missiles, guided rockets, smart cluster munitions, mobile artillery and advanced sea mines – not to mention its elite corps of American-trained fighter and helicopter pilots. Even if some lucky PLA units could survive the trip (not at all a safe assumption), they would be rapidly overwhelmed by a small but professional Taiwan military that has been thinking about and preparing for this fight for decades.
Going forward it will be important for the U.S. and its allies to recognize that China’s military is in many ways much weaker than it looks. However, it is also growing more capable of inflicting destruction on its enemies through the use of first-strike weapons. To mitigate the destabilizing effects of the PLA’s strategy, the U.S. and its allies should try harder to maintain their current (if eroding) leads in military hardware. But more importantly, they must continue investing in the training that makes them true professionals. While manpower numbers are likely to come down in the years ahead due to defense budget cuts, regional democracies will have less to fear from China’s weak but dangerous military if their axes stay sharp.
[Well done, Ian Easton.]
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Hour One
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Stephen Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, CEO of D.C. International Advisory, and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: Chinese PLA navy ships come to 12 nautical miles of US land, off Alaska – coincidentally where the US president happened to be in Alaska. Twelve nautical miles is the Law of the Sea distance; China often challenges US ships in intl waters near China.  The US, by contrast, would go out of its way to avoid a similar provocation. The Pentagon called the PLAN intrusion "innocent passage" – referring to accidental travel into territorial waters with no hostile intent.  If the Pentagon says this is innocent, it isn’t defending us.  –Yes, this specifically is provocative: the ships were in exercises off Vladivostok, sailed thousands of miles to [poke a stick in the American eye].  When Xi goes to visit Hainan, the US could have a friendly passage of similar sort . . . XI will soon have a state ceremony in the White House; I'm not a fan of state visits with China, I endorse working visits with China. Pomp and circumstance shd be for an ally or someone who behaves like an ally. Scarborough Shoals, South China Sea. Is the PLA looking for limits? Yes, a consistent pattern since before the PRC, and certainly since its [taking power].
PLA pushes and pushes against the Indian border (bit by bit, in "salami slices"); does China expect a tit for tat? I hope so – but I fear that China believes that the US [will bug out in weakness]. China will not be stopped till it's actually stopped.  Before Pearl Harbor: Adm Kimmel showed the war warning to Adm Halsey: "How far do you want me to go?"  "Damn it!  Use your common sense."  "Best order I ever got!"
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Rick Fisher, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: China has for years been working on streamlining – will become more kjnt, a small structure focused on a few zones, joint command structure far better able to bring to bear the Chinese armed services in effective ways.  It took the S two decades to do something like this; Chinese are more scattered, how long will this take?  They've been working on it for 15 years, began not with joint but with simultaneous work between the various services; modern electronics, space communications, et al, require more jointness.  This reorganization is most convenient for Xi's anticorruption campaign  Reduction from 3.2 million to 3 million.  Xi called the reduction a "token for peace."   It's all about a leaner, more effective, stronger PLA; it's a big leap for China's being able to conduct war far more effectively.  The stuff hidden in all those tunnels?  Asahi Shimbun: the Second Artillery Corps may take the lead in space/missiles.  It has keys to nukes; reports directly to Xi and the Central Military Commission. The General Staff Dept doesn't count in this matter.   In parade on Thurs: The DF-26 (second-generation) is effective because it's based  on American technology – scavenged parts of Pershing 2, with radar guidance; China improved, created the antiship missile. The Carrier-killer that can obliterate Guam.
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Bill Harwood, CBS News space consultant, in re:
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Michael Auslin, AEI  Director of Japan Studies & Resident Scholar in Foreign and Defense Policy Studies; in re:  China's economy is in worse trouble than is widely acknowledged; is brittle and unable to work with stagnation Possibility of 1929-style meltdown.  This is something of which we ought to be aware and concerning which we well might worry.  At the upcoming state dinner for Xi, need to discuss not a China that's too strong, but a China that's too weak. Before Xi goes to DC, he'll go to Seattle, huge conference where Apple and others will attend. We'll see then how much sway China has there.  The PE [private equity ] guys kept saying, "Sure, I'll take 9%" - then 7% - then 4%, from Chinese invetment. But even that's no longer in the cards.  Carry the water. US business hates to admit that the goose that was supposed to lay a golden egg is in fact [potentially in a shambles]. 
During the financial crisis of 2008, China lauded itself for escaping contagion by the American financial meltdown. Now, however, China’s recent stock market collapse is infecting global equity markets, ushering in a period of almost unprecedented volatility. But while the world focuses on the effects on Wall Street, the real story of the summer of 2015 is that China’s troubles are just beginning. The spillover effects likely will spread beyond China’s economy, even affecting politics and security—that should be the main topic of conversation when Chinese president Xi Jinping visits President Obama in Washington this month.
It is easy for a political contender such as Donald Trump to score points by claiming that Beijing is “ripping us” by stealing U.S. jobs and cheating through currency manipulation, and that “China would be in trouble” were he elected. But as in so much else, The Donald misses a much bigger story: We have hit “peak China.”
The coming years promise far greater troubles for the world’s second-largest economy
China is unlikely to completely collapse. Yet the Chinese success story of the past quarter-century is over, just like the Japanese miracle ended abruptly in the 1990s. Due simply to its size, China will remain one of the world’s largest economies for decades to come, and it will still be an indispensable part of the global supply chain and trading network. But from political, diplomatic and economic perspectives, China faces risks that will test the skills of President Xi Jinping and his co-leaders, possibly threatening their political authority.
It is easy to focus on the precipitous drop in China’s stock markets since early summer, including that 11% drop in the Shanghai Composite index, leading to the Dow’s recent plunge. But even with the stock markets barely recovering, the bigger story is the dramatic slowdown in the Chinese overall economy—from factory activity to export and import orders. Economic growth supposedly rang in at 7% last year, but few experts believe the official numbers are accurate. Western business, such as automakers, are scaling back their production and sales in China. In response, Beijing has both reduced interest rates and pumped money into the economy, yet both tactics have failed to stem the financial drop or ignite growth. The world needs to prepare for a China that grows far more slowly, thereby affecting everything from consumer goods to investment.
A slowing economy is dangerous for the Communist Party.  But in China, everything is political. A slowing economy is dangerous for the Communist Party, which is already in the midst of a steady and growing domestic crackdown on dissent, liberal forces, non-governmental organizations and lawyers. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign is widely seen as a tool to eliminate potential Party rivals, thus heightening tensions inside ruling circles. Public dissatisfaction with the government spiked again in August after the massive chemical explosion in Tianjian. China’s repressive leadership stays in power in part because of its image as a competent technocracy. Should it lose legitimacy due to economic decline, China’s always-present domestic unrest could boil over, leading to even greater domestic repression, and an ever worsening security crisis at home.
Hour Two
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re: the Chinese stock market:  Xi Jinping, the president of China, celebrating a victory over Japan in WWI – with which the PRC and USSR had zip to do – rolled the Carrier-Killer in its parade. Also called "Guam-killer"  - or even "Pearl Harbor-killer"  When they rolled in front of the reviewing stand, the color commentator said, "They can hit Hawaii."  We're giving Xi a state visit with a 21-gun salute while they say they want to incinerate us – I don't get it.  death of the futures mkt: until a week ago, China had the world's most liquid mkt, but volumes have fallen 90%, draconian trading  restrictions, down to 40K contracts a day.   . . .  Heavy govt intervention in currency mkts. Reformers?? Their instincts are anti-reform - they'll kill their economy in order to maintain control.   There was no systemic crisis but their heavy-handed interference [blew it up].  Have to wind back all the intervention of the last two months to [believe the tale].  The futures mkt was invented in the 1800s with cotton – they let Gt Britain grow enormously rich. Futures are the reason capitalism works – but these are people who must maintain control and show the world they have control. Li Kai-cheng.  They see stability of the CCP as the most important thing on Earth.  How could they get themselves out of this?  oops- shouldn't have got into it in the first place.  Even if they unwind, still the mkt will not forget, will be cautious for a log time. Twenty-five years of Chinese mkts to be celebrated later in 2015 – but they still haven't grasped what a mkt is. They keep digging themselves into a bigger and bigger hole. Using forex to defend their currency, definitively a finite practice. Does China have a plan?  Not visibly. They demand short-term fixes.  A state commission reported that forex fell $93 billion – the largest on record, and maybe it was more than that. Money is leaving at $135billion a month (Win Financial/Bloomberg).  Money goes where there's a return. China hasn't opened up its capital mkt with inflows and outflows; all it's permitted is money in. Chinese has even worse problems to solve than keeping the artificial exchange rate at a level they like. http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-august-forex-reserves-down-by-93-9-billion-as-pboc-intervenes-1441614856
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, on these: Eun's version of ha-liu- a weak version – his pop singers in miniskirts are as relevant to DPRK human rights as Imelda Marco's thousands of pairs of shoes were to Philippine human rights. Might be North Korea using South Korean culture to propagate its own themes.   Recall Vogue's "Rose of the Desert" – Asma al Assad was presented in insanely glowing terms, when days later Assad was dropping barrel bombs on his own people.  Vogue has now destroyed the links to the online story; worse: the New York Times Magazine, in reporting on that hair-raising and notorious story, printed a graf on how Anna Wintour, editor-in-chief of Vogue who'd refused over international objections to decry the ghastly piece, also demanded that her security staff physically carry her up and down stairwells – but Wintour objected and the Times actually removed that graf from its online story.  Sovietskii re-writing of history in our own, cherished journalism.  ; http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/03/asia/north-korea-moranbong/ ; http://nypost.com/2015/09/04/north-korean-karaoke-stirs-fear-of-mass-propaganda-sing-along-in-south/
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Sadanand Dhume, WSJ, in re: the Mumbai attacks cast a long shadow over India-Pakistan relatins.  Modhi was elected to fix india's economy, but Pakistan has mad it tough – the attacks are globally acknowledged to have been generated by the Pakistani govt using Lashkar-e-Toiba as a cut-out.  No matter what India does. it'll have bad relations with Islamabad?  Maybe too pessimistic – Pakistan cd decide to clean up its act.  Were it ever to crack down n these groups instead of supporting them, could have good relations.   Modhi has been said to be "changeable" – is that him, or his advisors of two mind about Pakistan? Probably advisors, but that doesn't exculpate him.  Foreign policy has been his strong suit.  Invited US president at India Day parade, and publicly embraced Israel.    Hope he'll pick one approach, and hope it's the tougher one.  Would China rein I Pakistan? SO far no luck.  China sees Pakistan as its "all-weather friend."  BJP is much tougher n Pakistan, is the Indian hawkish party.   Many were appalled by Manmohan Singh  too soft.  All Singh said after attacks was, "We won't play cricket with you." Congress party is trying to take advantage of the moment.  Domestically Modhi can forget about Pakistan, but internationally, with the live border and attacks, the world is jittery; and Pakistan is savvy in its PR on that.  India formerly reached out to Afghanistan; Karzai took a bleak view of Pakistan and its role in forming [and still very much running] Taliban; the new Afghan president has tried to be more conciliatory [not to his credit. –ed.].
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: James Taranto, WSJ Editorial, in re:  Sorry About That’  An apology, or just a slight deviation from the script?
Hour Three
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Bruce Webster, Andstillipersist.com, in re:  Ironwood experts ; Hillary Clinton emails: Senators offer immunity to Bryan Pagliano for testimony Two top Senate investigators floated the idea of immunity Tuesday to Bryan Pagliano, the ... ; Lawmakers demand ex-Clinton staffer who worked on e-mail server to appear ;  Immunity deal for Bryan Pagliano testimony being floated
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Closing in on Ceres’s bright spots  Cool image time! The Dawn science team has released a new close-up of Ceres’s Double Bright Spot.
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: JohnAvlon, Daily Beast; Taegan Goddard, Political Wire, in re:  Clinton Finally Apologizes for Using Private Email.  Clinton: ‘I take responsibility’ for e-mails /  THE LID: Is Joe Biden Catching Fire? Is the Republican Party Going Rogue?  Real Soldiers Sneer at Wannabe Trump. Saying prep school was just like being at West Point did not go over well at the Pentagon. Trump’s Liberal Tax Policy .
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: John Bolton, AEI & National Review Magazine, in re: "Multilateral Dreaming"  read this article online.
Hour Four
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block A:  The Rev William Devlin, REDEEM! and co-pastor of Infinity Bible Church in the Bronx; in re: Pastor Bill doing medical volunteer work in Syrian refugee camps just at the Turkish border. (1 of 2)
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: The Rev William Devlin, REDEEM! and co-pastor of Infinity Bible Church in the Bronx; in re: Pastor Bill doing medical volunteer work in Syrian refugee camps just at the Turkish border. (2 of 2)
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: Nate Schweber, NYT, in re: homeless persons in New York City A reporter and a photographer visited homeless encampments across New York City, interviewing dozens of people, from teenagers to those in their 70s. Some had serious medical conditions; one woman was pregnant. They spoke of job losses, mental health issues, substance abuse and problems with the city shelter system that drove them to the streets. (1 of 2)
Wednesday 9 September 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Nate Schweber, NYT, in re: homeless persons in New York City A reporter and a photographer visited homeless encampments across New York City, interviewing dozens of people, from teenagers to those in their 70s. Some had serious medical conditions; one woman was pregnant. They spoke of job losses, mental health issues, substance abuse and problems with the city shelter system that drove them to the streets. (2 of 2)
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