Wednesday 7 September 2016
Image, left: emblem of the nation of Laos
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast
Hour One
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Cleo Paskal, visiting Trudeau Fellow, University of Montreal, and associate Fellow, Chatham House, in re: The Vietnam War taught my generation to doubt ad challenge. Two members of that generation are now running for the presidency. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s leadership looks to a new day, new allies, in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean Basin, in Southeast Asia. In the 1980s, India began drilling in the South China Sea; now, Modi goes there and feeds fish with Vietnamese leadership. Then the just-past G20 in China. India has advanced $500 mil to Vietnam to buy Indian military apparatus. India and Vietnam have Buddhist linkages and others that go back two thousand years. Because India is cut off from most of the continental landmass by the Himalayas, most of its trade is seaborne. Vietnam fought the US and France successfully, but is proudest of having beaten the pants off China in the 1980s – first-string PLA whipped by third-string Vietnamese forces. Is Vietnam renting its military to India, which is willing to fight to the last Vietnamese? Vietnam wants the Indian state oil co. to drill in its waters since China is trying to claim Vietnam’s waters – and might attack Vietnam but will not fight India. Modi has visited all over, incl Mongolia.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-Vietnam-ink-def-pacts-to-counter-China/articleshow/54000372.cms
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Kelley Currie, senior Fellow with the Project 2049 Institute, in re: Laos today is still fairly isolated, mostly tourism for forex, but moderately pro-US. Much much unexploded ordnance left from the Vietnam war and secret bombing (chemical warfare, et al.) of Laos by Americans. Laos is chair of ASEAN this year; is small, had to struggle to accomplish, but have handled it well. Bumps on the authoritarian regime here, but overall smooth. Pres Obama has pledged $90 mi to help find and remove ordnance. Human rights problems: disappearance of a leading activist several years ago; question just raised, alarming Lao officials. Laos is a poor country, struggling to meet basic needs. Fraternal Communist ties with Vietnam and close cultural affinity with Thailand. Chinese have made aggressive investments in Lao hydropower, want to usurp some power from Vietnam.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/sep/4/obama-seeks-to-curb-china...
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Aaron Klein, Breitbart chief Middle East correspondent, in re: Chorine gas attack by Assad’s regime on the city of Aleppo. What happens in Aleppo in the coming days and weeks will determine the equilibrium among regional and great power. Currently: will there be a Kurdistan? US is pushing for one in a minor way; Iran, Turkey and Russia all oppose. Turkey will recognize Latakia and Tartus (now under Russia) as a de facto Russian enclave.
Al Qaeda trying to masquerade as al Nusrah. ISIS ha panted its flag in Sinai, and in Syria up to the Israeli border. Where are the 10,000 ISIS jihadists? US and Arab intell cannot find – not traceable. Turkey or to Iraq, or to Libya and aiming at Europe List of 1,7000 fighters compiled by Tunisia – and missing. Killed as hostages? executed by other jihadist groups? It's not yet a critical emergency, but close to it in Arab capitals – red flag Jordan Libya, Egypt, and attacks across Europe, esp red flag in Belgium and France.
Golan Heights: rebels are fighting n the Syrian section, but a small group, The Sons of the Prophet, in Syria here, dozes of fighters (80 in toto?) want to declare war against Israel to liberate the al Aqsa mosque and al Quds/Jerusalem. Will a cleric take this group under his custody ad legitimize it to fight against Golan Heights?
Might the missing ISIS fighters have gone to Libya? Yes.
Arab intell agencies looking for all ten thousand name by name.
Protests against el Sisi regime, which has done a great job militarily but not in human rights. Corruption, tyranny, poverty. Egyptian organizing massive protests on social media. Should el Sisi fall, Islamic State in Sinai, IS in Egypt, and IS on the Egypt-Libya border, will move in.
. . . The move would represent a major escalation in the two countries' interventions in Syria. But there was no immediate comment from United ...
Egyptian Army foils ISIS attack in Sinai Sinai Peninsula, Egypt– The Egyptian Army foiled another ... ISIS placed two roadside bombs along the Al-Gorah Road before they ...
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re: Konstantin ___ Romanov, plus two others: all officers, senior commanders in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Ukrainian sources. Europe and Russia deny that the collapse of Ukraine is the result of civil war. Russian troops go as “volunteers” in Ukraine; Ukr intell svcs have published the names of top 50 Russian commanders there. There are six to ten thousand regular Russian soldiers in Ukraine.
NGO Bellingcap(?)– combat medals are numbered consecutively; if you can find five or ten you can see how many were awarded in a certain period.
Denial: helps Berlin, Paris, Washington before we conceded hat Russia has attacked Ukr with conventnal forces we demand 99.9999% proof as Moscow will always come up wit a complex denial. Striking: Malaysian Airline flight 17 was shot down by a Russian crew.
To keep records on everyone n the Internet for six mos is very expensive – so hey rob he pension fund! First effect is on religion: Mormons, Evangelicals, others, have withdrawn from Russia. Big Brother is ambitious but cash-poor.
The Kremlin’s fig leaves that cast slight shadows of doubt on the presence of regular Russian troops in Ukraine provide a disorganized, timid, and even cowardly West a reason for inaction. We all know that a Russian missile shot down MH17 and that there are regular Russian troops in east Ukraine, but as long as there is a on- in-a-thousand chance of another explanation, we have a reason to hold back. http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/09/06/russian-combat-medals-put-lie-to-putins-claim-of-no-russian-troops-in-ukraine/#12cb1d27a0f8 http://gur.mil.gov.ua/content/viiskovi-zlochyntsi-ofitsery-5-ombr-1-ak-t...
Hour Two
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Chris Harmer, senior military analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in re: the latest in the South China Sea, especially Scarborough Shoal. Russia in Black Sea: . High-speed Iranian patrol boats and other ships buzzing or harassing the US Navy. South China Sea: SCMP has pix of Chinese warships at Scarborough Shoal to dredge artificial islands. Mssrs Putin and Xi work closely together.
Are Black Sea, Persian Gulf, an South China Sea many incidents are part of a plan to humiliate theUS and push it out of Eurasia. Transactional alliance between Russia China and Iran don't always coordinate in advance, but all seek to weaken, to show our allies we’re not to be trusted and our enemies we're not to be feared. US is continually in a reactive mode responds inappropriately; they see the weakness and respond individually.
US must continue to sail in ht global commons, on intl seas, where there are professional rules of he sea to follow, which we do an China and Iran do not. A specific set of rules of engagement: at 500 m, verbal warning at 300 m, gunshots across the bow; at 3200 meters we’ll engage. That wd immediately stop the Iranian behavior and influence Russia an China.
The US must first continue FON ops; also draw up specfic rules of engagement. Iran is the little brother, the stepchild, allowed to do whatever it wants; if e draw the line wit Iran, Russian and China will get the message.
These are primarily for domestic audiences, and also to shame us in front of others,
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Mark Clifford, former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post and a Hong Kong resident since 1992, in re: Legco [pron: ledge-koh; the Hong Kong Legislative Council]. Today, the city has trouble: PRC’s false promise, that for 50 years HK people could govern themselves and have univeral suffrage by 2007. None of that has come to pass.
Legco is a city council with modest power but enormous symbolic weight. Election last Sunday gave a resounding victory to Honk Kong [independentistas]. Beijing has been pushing the opposite direction. City swelled with refugees fleeing communism, now their children are coming of age. “For communists, no amount control is enough.” These were the first elections since the demonstrations of two years ago. Now the whole middle class has supported a liberated HK. Beijing is having attacks as it's clearly already lost Taiwan. One lone protestor with a British colonial-era flag back then was seen as a joke; no more – localism is on the rise. The more Beijing stomps HK people, the more they rebel. The new, very young legislators are very different from their antecedents; they're not interested in Tien An Men, they're interested in Hong Kong.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/04/asia/hong-kong-legco-election/ The message that the Hong Kong Legislative Council election sends is one that Beijing appears incapable of hearing. It is the same message that Hong Kongers have been sending Beijing since British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher visited the two cities in September 1982 to begin the long goodbye that saw Britain surrender its last significant colony in 1997.
It is a simple message: Hong Kong people value their institutions, their laws, and their liberties.
The Chinese Communist Party of today is unable to engage in a way that will assuage Hong Kong people’s understandable fear that the Party wants to destroy each of these, to do away with the institutions, the laws, and the liberties that make Hong Kong the freest city in the People’s Republic.
Since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949, only Deng Xiaoping, with his “one country, two systems” formulation, managed to find a way to reassure Hong Kong people that life under the People’s Republic of China would be worth staying for after 1997. Although there was substantial emigration in the run-up to the handover, especially after the 1989 Tiananmen killings, the situation would have been far worse without reassurances from Beijing.
Nearly two decades into Chinese rule, and two decades since Deng died, those reassurances are increasingly hollow. Last year it was the missing booksellers, abducted from Hong Kong and Thailand and made to confess their crimes in China. There is pressure on virtually every institution, from media to the courts to even the vaunted Independent Commission Against Corruption.
Hong Kong is under attack from cadres whose political philosophy centers on control.
Before the 1997 handover, there were promises aplenty that we would have universal suffrage in 2007. I remember a prominent businessman sketching out the expected electoral reform timetable for me on a whiteboard.
After 1997, Hong Kong people did the unthinkable: they refused to be controlled. Instead of voting for the pro-Beijing parties, as cadres apparently genuinely thought they would do, Hong Kongers kept expressing support for independent pro-democracy politicians. That 2007 timetable for real electoral reform was scrapped. (And that businessman with his whiteboard now keeps quiet about politics except when it comes to supporting Beijing’s initiatives.)
It turns out that democracy with Hong Kong-Chinese characteristics was controlled democracy, contingent on supporting pro-Beijing politicians.
Except that in 2003, somewhere between 500,000 and one million people took to the streets to protest national security legislation required under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution. Hong Kong’s first chief executive was forced to step down as a result.
Still, Beijing keeps pushing for more control. One lesson of an authoritarian government is that no amount of control is ever enough. Instead of letting Hong Kong pursue its own agenda, and continue contributing to the country as only the freest city in China and its robust international financial market can do, Beijing is determined to dominate Hong Kong. Rather than displaying long-term strategic patience, Beijing keeps pushing for submission.
The National People’s Congress put out a white paper two years ago squelching any hopes of real political reform. That move breathed new life into a flagging protest movement. The next month, the Occupy movement took over much of Central for 79 days.
Two years ago, mention of independence was laughed off as a joke, as risible as the lone protestor I saw on the July 1 demonstrations that year carrying a colonial Hong Kong flag. Beijing has succeed in making the laughable almost mainstream. http://www.chinafile.com/conversation/hong-kong-election-what-message-does-it-send-beijing
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Claudia Rosett, FDD and PJ Media; in re: THE ROSETT REPORT China's Insult and Obama's Climate Kowtow https://pjmedia.com/claudiarosett/chinas-insult-and-obamas-climate-kow-tow/
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/where-obamas-asia-rebalance-went-wrong-1472684600
Hour Three
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: “Even after the tumultuous Summer of Trump, Republicans still insist that he won’t doom their hopes of retaining control of Capitol Hill,” Politico reports.
“Returning to Washington after their long August recess, Republican lawmakers are cautiously optimistic that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump can remain disciplined enough over the next two months to keep them from getting blown out — and give them a fighting chance to hold the Senate and protect their sizable House majority.”
2. Campaign Trail: Trump has room to grow:
“A substantial bloc of Republican-leaning voters has declined so far to back either major-party candidate for president, suggesting Donald Trump has an opportunity to make the race more competitive by persuading them to return to the GOP,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“His challenge is formidable, however, since almost eight in 10 of these voters have sharply negative views of Mr. Trump and his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. That raises the prospect they might vote for a third-party candidate—or sit out the election.”
3. Trump Foreign Policy on Russia: This Week @ThisWeekABC
Trump says Russian President Vladimir Putin has "no respect" for Obama, and "absolutely no respect" for Clinton. snpy.tv/2cC0VW7
4. Trump Battleground: USA TODAY @USATODAY
Trump, Clinton launch fall campaigns on same Ohio tarmac usat.ly/2cnLOMS pic.twitter.com/7wemaWlaAt
5. Birther Lite The Hill @thehill
Pence says he believes Obama was born in the US hill.cm/sNemO58 pic.twitter.com/ibCTggGFZJ
Clinton Clinton's lead in national polls shrinks, but she's still got the electoral college edge bloom.bg/2bU8mbh pic.twitter.com/EMiIKDAd1K
Bloomberg Politics @bpolitics
House Oversight Cmte Plans Multiple Hearings on Clinton: Cummings bloom.bg/2bTVwKl
Wall Street has already chosen itself as the likely winner of the US election bloom.bg/2c7VRoc pic.twitter.com/7UXreIVq1K
Foreign Policy ABC News Politics @ABCPolitics
NEW: Russian fighter comes within ten feet of US Navy P-8 plane in international airspace over Black Sea. -@LMartinezABC
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (2 of 4)
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (3 of 4)
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (4 of 4)
Hour Four
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: I Will Hold: The Story of USMC Legend Clifton B. Cates, from Belleau Wood to Victory in the Great War, by James Carl Nelson ( of 4) Review: The incredible, true story of Clifton B. “Lucky” Cates, whose service in World War I and beyond made him a legend in the annals of the Marine Corps.
Cates knew that he and his small band of Marines were in a desperate spot. Before handing the note over to a runner, he added three words that would resound through Marine Corps history: I WILL HOLD
From the moment he first joined the Marine Reserves of the American Expeditionary Force in World War I, Clifton B. Cates was determined to make his mark as a leader. Little did he know what he would truly accomplish in his legendary career.
Not as well-known as his contemporaries such as Alvin C. York, his fame would not come from a single act of heroism but from his consistent and courageous demeanor throughout the war and beyond.
In the bloody second half of 1918 with the 6th Marine Regiment, he was awarded the Navy Cross, the Distinguished Service Cross, the Purple Heart, the Silver Star; was recognized by the French government with the Legion of Honor and the Croix de Guerre, and earned the nickname “Lucky.”
I Will Hold is the inspiring, brutally vivid, and incredible true-life story of a Marine Corps legend whose grit and unstoppable spirit on the battlefield matched his personal drive and sage wisdom off of it.
https://www.amazon.com/Will-Hold-Clifton-Belleau-Victory/dp/0425281485/r...
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: I Will Hold: The Story of USMC Legend Clifton B. Cates, from Belleau Wood to Victory in the Great War, by James Carl Nelson (2 of 4)
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: I Will Hold: The Story of USMC Legend Clifton B. Cates, from Belleau Wood to Victory in the Great War, by James Carl Nelson (3 of 4)
Wednesday 7 September 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: I Will Hold: The Story of USMC Legend Clifton B. Cates, from Belleau Wood to Victory in the Great War, by James Carl Nelson (4 of 4)