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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Harry Kazianis, Senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Center for the National Interest, Institute for the Study of War in re: China more aggressive in East and South China Seas; also vis-à-vis Japan, India, and al its neighbors.  Abe has revise Japanese constitution and made clear that he'll respond strongly.  Plan: to bottle China in: 30-yr-old anti-ship missiles, almost SCUD-type technology, planted on all Japanese islands in East China Sea – would bottle up the Chinese navy, which would have to pass through the island chain, past this iron wall, and would be pummeled.  The great failure of Chinese grand strategy.  With the recent notion of a declining USA, China [became a bit full of itself] and looked aggressively at Taiwan and neighbors.    Chinese Shenjen mkt down 7%, closed at opening, RMB at a four-year low.  We expected a calming of markets after yesterday's debacle, but no.  When China feel penned in, that's when it becomes dangerous. Cannot support four new aircraft carriers, trips to the Moon, et al.    With mobile batteries, need to see that that can't easily be sported. Deploy F-35s, some of the Japanese navy, make it a robust plan.  Abe seems to be reactive to Chinese aggression, which is surprisingly pushy.  http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/japans-master-plan-destroy-the-chinese-navy-battle-14779
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Chris Harmer, Senior Fellow, Institute for the Study of War, in re: North Korea and Asia's arms race. . . . My biggest concern is he collaboration in nukes between DPRK and Iran.  Cannot underestimate the amt – problem for the PacRim and the entire Middle East. At all three detonations before this one, Iranian officials were present. Every DPRK missile rest, same.  US does not have a framework with which to deal with North Korea – neither does any of its neighbors, al of which look to the US for leadership, having agreed not to dvp nukes since they were under the US umbrella.  No longer.   Even the USSR acted in a somewhat logical manner; not North Korea, which is gravely unstable. 
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com;
Hotel Mars, episode n,  in re:  Baikonur; Proton and Soyuz rockets. Launches that look routine – but one overshadows others: Exomars 2016, on a Proton rocket, launched mid-March.   . . .  This first mission essentially is a precursor for the 2018 mission, which will land a very sophisticated rover on the surface. This one is to give European engineers experience in landing and operating eqpt. Also, an important search for biological activity. In 2018, also will use a stationary platform. Have some seed money for a future re-usable launch [system].
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Pastor William Devlin, Infinity Bible Church, South Bronx National President, REDEEM! ; co-chair, Right to Worship NYC twitter: @pastordev FB: pastor bill devlin; in re: The people of Jordan, and in the Levant, who want to live in peace, depend to a large extent on Americans. Someone who always goes to troubled zone and knows what he's doing is PB, Pastor Bill.  He's taking a group to Israel, via TravelWithUS.com, leaving on 12 Feb for eight days.  Nazareth (West Bank), Jerusalem, Bethlehem (incl Church of the Nativity) and outlying are where the shepherds saw the heavenly host, Sea of Galilee; we need to go and support the only democracy in the Middle East. Will also meet with government officials.  Day 8, February 19, Gordon's Calvary: the evangelical Protestant place of the crucifixion, Golgotha, the Place of the Skull. The two tour leaders are PB and Pastor Dimas Salaverios.  It's true that there are troubled aspects of Israel- but this is not a Disneyland of holy places; this is real.  A place that makes prayer and hope successful. We want to support people in the Holy Land – now is the best time to go. Call PB on his personal cell:  233 7279.  Lufthansa. [Note: total trip incl air fare, lodging, food, everything: $2,500  --ed.]
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Bruce Bechtol, Angelo State, Texas; in re:  North Korea detonates an H-bomb yesterday.    Chinese stock mkt closed today; closed two out of three days. Trigger; circuit breaker, permanent close for the day if it goes 7% up or down. Were it not to close, the consequences would be outflows, and currency and stocks in freefall.  The White House "cannot confirm" the claim of  a hydrogen test. US, South Korea and Japan to study test: 5.1 magnitude; same as 2013. Plutonium? Highly enriched uranium?  H?  not known. US radiation "sniffer planes" to check it out.  Twenty-thirteen sniffer search could not tell - so deep, could not detect (10 km below surface of Earth).  The North Koran nuclear program is less sophisticated than that of Pakistan. Whenever DPRK tests a nuclear weapon, soon thereafter it tests a rocketry. Expect an ICMB test soon – coming weeks? 
Since 2013, Iran has had an 80 ton booster work with NK; can carry a warhead. The KN-08 missile is able to reach the West Coast. This constitutes a genuine risk. The US is caught in the middle:  the US could find itself attacked on both the East and West Coasts by missiles carrying nuclear bombs – from Iran to the East, with bombs landing along the Eastern seaboard, and from North Korea, with H-bombs landing in Washington. Oregon, and northern California.
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Mike Davis, professor at Hong Kong University Law School, in re: disappearance of five staff members of a tiny Hong Kong publishing house and book shop which prints and sells books critical of Mainland; a shop 
The most recent one leaves the office at 7:30 daily and goes immediately home; on the December day he disappeared, he later called his wife and said he was on Mainland – absent any travel document – and was "assisting in an investigation" – euphemism for being under arrest.  The Chinese Communist Party abducted him and then terrified his wife.  Under HK law, the Mainland police have no standing. This has scared the daylights out of the population, Earlier, there was gossip that they were about to publish a book on Xi Jinping's love life. Other shops have withdrawn "sensitive" books from their shelves.   Something is wrong in China. A matter of concern not just for China and Hong Kong, but for all of us.  http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/05/asia/hong-kong-china-missing-booksellers/
 
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re:  the Chinese stock market.
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:   Charles Bausman, editor and publisher of RussiaInsider; in re:  today is Orthodox Christmas – the greeting is, "With Christmas!"  A light dusting of snow ere in Moscow, and it looks magical.  Two hundred years ago they adopted Germanic traditions – tannenbaums; midnight liturgy, goes on forever, everyone stands for the whole service, which has extremely beautiful music.  The North Korean H-bomb test yesterday:  Russia and DPRK are warming relations; Russia says: listen to North Korea – it feels threatened by the US; we see the US rampaging around the Middle East and having proxy wars in Ukraine. At the same time, Russia joins the UN Security Council and condemns the blast.  / Enormous religious revival in the last twenty years – in the Nineties, hundreds being baptized daily, and another rising the last year.  Eight hundred monasteries have been opened in Russia in the last 20 years; 10,000 churched s built. Moscow intends to build 1,000 churches in the coming years.  Explains Putin's pubic display of support for Christianity.  / Constantly on the news; reports from Russian mil journos, with unique footage; we use a lot on our site. For December, estimate Russia killed 2,500 ISIS fighters in bombing raids.  Testifies to the Russian efficient and results-oriented campaign, many sorties. 
 
Hour Three
 Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Washington Times opinion page editor & Fox news, in re:  North Korea detonated another bomb yesterday; almost surely an H-bomb (with careful muffling of seismic activity to diminish the appearance of magnitude).     This and Iranian and Chinese activities, inter al., are the direct result of feckless policies in this Whit House.   Different from what would occur if we had a strong president.   ISI with WMD; Iran , DPRK with an H-bomb - while the US president busies himself fighting climate change.  A feckless and craven Western Europe. I don't blame the bad guys – they have one year before this president leaves, during which times they'll maximize their interests.   China going wild in the South China Sea inventing bogus islands – result of the Obama Administration's "pivot to Asia."   They seek nukes to threaten and intimidate and ultimately dominate their enemies.  Recall 1994 deal by Bill Clinton with DPRK to prevent it from getting nukes – and soon enough it had a small arsenal. and now it has an H-bomb that's small and light and can be sent to Japan and the US.  TPP (TransPacific Partnership) and normalization of relations with Cuba (1 of 4)
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Washington Times opinion page editor & Fox news, in re:  Election 2016: Ted Cruz's immigration reversal - CNNPolitics.com  On the campaign trail, Ted Cruz says he's the "consistent conservative" -- the one candidate ... ; Trump says Cruz's Canadian birth could be 'very precarious' for GOP ;  Constitutional Scholars Explain Why Ted Cruz Is Eligible to Be President (2 of 4)
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Washington Times opinion page editor & Fox news (3 of 4)
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Washington Times opinion page editor & Fox news (4 of 4)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East bureau chief, in re: http://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2016/01/06/exiled-hamas-terror-king... ( of 2)
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East bureau chief, in re: http://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2016/01/06/exiled-hamas-terror-king... ( of 2)
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Bret Stephens, WSJ Editorial, in re:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-year-of-living-dangerously-1451953556
Wednesday   6 January 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Josh Rogin, Bloomberg, in re: The 5 Stages of Reacting to a North Korea Nuke Test.  New year, off to a wild start. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-06/the-5-stages-of-reacting-to-a-north-korea-nuke-test