The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 6 April 2016

Air Date: 
April 06, 2016

Photo, left: 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:   Bob Collins, Department of Defense, advisor (for four decades), in re:  . . . I f the US were ever to lessen its commitment to South Korea, then North Korea would see its goal of claiming ROK as much easier.  False rumor that Kim Jong-Eun was assassinated; untrue, but taps into a chord worldwide. After Eun killed so many of his military elites, people watching think of death.
First line of protection around Kim Jong-Eun: personal guards/secret police: selected by age 18 and brought up to adore Eun. Their families are taken to Pyongyang and their wives are chosen for them.
Second is the Secret Service.
Third is the national police. 
All of the Supreme Leader’s advisors are evaluated each week – they're seriously unlikely to be disloyal. In 1979 the head of DPRK killed [one of his colleagues].  Eun is vulnerable only while travelling. 
Every one of his generals needs to go through an annual political boot camp. Fear politics – all scared. All watched by secret police and political watchers. Were there to be a conspiracy, it’d probably be while Eun was travelling to a mil exercise where the mil had some kind of control.   http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/31/politics/trump-view-from-south-korea-japan/  ;  http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/31/politics/trump-view-from-south-korea-japan/  ; http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/kim-jong-un-dead-rumour-7697339
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Julia Famularo, Project 2049 Institute, in re: Hong Kong is supposed to be a free “special region” of China – and China abducts, imprisons, disappears, free thinkers.  New film: Ten Years, is threatening to Beijing – it’s about a dystopian Hong Kong in 2025.  Shows parallels with Tibet – starts w someone self-immolating in protest; and a cab driver forbidden to speak southern Chinese language, obliged to speak Mandarin. Scary.  The Global Times (controlled by Beijing) called the film “a thought-virus.”  Also claims that HK can never be independent.   They’ve turned a home movie into a major hit — around the world, and is being shown in independent houses in HK.  About the future? Also about the past – the Cultural Revolution as it impinges into HK. Tibet is now under lockdown – after the anniversary of the Tibetan uprising, Beijing clamped down. Situation is deteriorating. Much forced migration within Tibet – traditional herders forced to live in cities, had to take out huge loans to build homes and there’s a major problem with unemployment, depression, alcoholism.  Beijing wants to obliterate language, culture. History – same as in Xinjiang. 
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-03/hong-kong-film-ten-years-pulled-from-cinemas-by-china/7295420
..  ..  .. 
A film tipped to win best picture at a prestigious Asian awards night has been pulled from cinemas in the latest attempt by the Chinese Government to crack down on dissent.
Key points:
- China bans Hong Kong film Ten Years, calling it a "virus of the mind"
- More than 7,000 people turned up to protest screenings
- Film shows Hong Kong under greater Chinese control in 2025
Ten Years has been hailed as one of the best films to come out of Hong Kong in decades, but has emboldened the voice of protest from leaders of the pro-democracy movement in the city. The film is a very dark vision of Hong Kong in 2025 under greater Chinese control. In the film, Cantonese — the language of Hong Kong — is forbidden, protesters set themselves alight and local politicians are assassinated.  China has banned the broadcast of the Hong Kong Film Awards, calling Ten Years "a virus of the mind".
In an act of defiance, the film was screened in 40 public spaces across Hong Kong this weekend and 7,000 people turned up. One viewer, Pamela Lam, said: "The film is about 10 years in time, but it's gradually happening in Hong Kong at the moment. "I'm worried Hong Kong is just going to fade out and become another Chinese city." Another film-goer, Sandy Li, said Ten Years "addresses our deepest concerns about Chinese control … that we will lose our identity and freedoms in Hong Kong".
Rule of law, human rights,  'decreasing'
Ten Years was made on a shoestring budget. Producer Andrew Choi said he had been surprised by its success. "I hope it can awaken some of the feelings and discussions among Hong Kong people that they can be brave and stand up for what they believe," he said.
It is certainly a case of art imitating life. In Hong Kong, calls for independence are growing and it is the young who at the forefront.  Joshua Wong, 19, was one of the leaders of the umbrella revolution in 2014 that stopped the city with protests and sit-ins for three months. Next week he will announce a new political party to contest the Hong Kong legislative election in September.
"Since the handover, our core values are being eroded — the rule of law is decreasing, human rights are decreasing," he said. "It's all moving backwards, things are worse since 1997." Mr Wong is facing five years' jail for organising the demonstrations. He said people would continue to gather "to fight for democracy, to fight for freedom, especially the right of self-determination".
The editor of Hong Kong University's magazine, Marcus Lau, said people had lost faith with the "one country, two system" campaign.  Mr Lau is calling for a new constitution and wants the United Nations to recognise Hong Kong as a sovereign nation independent from mainland China.
But China is not about to let that happen and has called these latest moves "a fake proposition without any possibility of realisation". The stage is set for more conflict and confrontation.  Mr Lau believes protests will become more frequent and more radical "as the Hong Kong Government is not responding to the people's calls".
..  ..  .. 
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East bureau chief and Aaron Klein Investigative Radio; in re: Sukhoi shot down near Aleppo – by a Manpad (shoulder-fired ground-to-air missile) – where did it come from?  Despite rebels’s denial, it was a Manpad that struck the Syrian jet. Syria announced it was and anti-aircraft missile; they downed the Syrian jet and took hostage the pilot, a colonel (seen in a video). So who did the shooting? Al Nusrah (not part of the cease-fire), or someone else? How’d they get it?  Was it Saudis or Qataris?  These two have accepted Russia as the growing MENA strength as the US pulls out? Or was it Turkey (again)? . . . Manpads looted/stolen by the witches’s brew of Libyan groups?  Are Manpads now secure? [Hah.]  . . . Stingers supplied to Deir al Zour – someone signed off on transferring Stingers from Turkey to Syria. White House?  Erdogan is clearly not very stable.  Or, it's hard to believe  such a major dramatic change/turnaround. As an analyst it’d be hard to believe that if it was Turkey providing the missiles that it wasn't coordinated with NATO or the US. Is there a truce?? It doesn't include al Nusrah or ISIS. I hear that 40% of the rebel groups are committed to the truce, meaning there really is none.  ISIS sees that the troops have taken Palmyra, are nor heading to Mosul, eventually Raqqa.  With ISIS on the run, are they desperate enough to use a Stinger against a passenger jet?  Or the other tactic – activate cells in Europe and the US, or maybe Russia?  Report that Turkish-made Stingers are in al Nusrah hands in Syria shooting downs Syrian jets.   http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2016/04/06/analysis-use-antiaircraft-missiles-syria-marks-major-escalation-poses-international-threat/
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East bureau chief and Aaron Klein Investigative Radio; in re: Sinai.  Even Hamas claims in its dreams that 2,500 Palestinian civilians were killed – Bernie Sanders says it was 10,000 innocent people were killed in Gaza. Recall that Hamas uses women, children and journos as human shields. Bernie claimed that hospitals were bombed: the al Wafa Hospital was first completely entirely evacuated, having been used as a Hamas command center, and was turned to rubble.  Hamada greens that not one person dies there. / Several Hamas mil commanders defected to the Sinai branch of ISIS  (Waliat Sinai [?]).   . . .    Note cooperation between Hamas and ISIS, although they’re at war with each other – “Zionist conspiracy” epithets – as Hamas uses ISI to smuggle.  There are hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza who are heading toward Salafism in ISIS around the region, esp Libya the new HQ of ISIS.    Important training facilities – this is serious. See the training film at Breitbart Jerusalem.  http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2016/04/06/analysis-use-antiaircraft-missiles-syria-marks-major-escalation-poses-international-threat/
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:   Charles Burton, Brock University, in re:  List of Politburo members.  Xi Jinping’s brother-in-law had three offshore firms; not new that they all have obscenely huge amounts of money abroad, but the offshore companies – mostly BVI – are new. The suppression adds oil to the fire.   When many citizens are afraid of not getting another meal of fuel to stay warm, it’s inflammatory. May be that the censorship validates the reports.   Eleven million documents, 2.6 TB of data, more to come.  Another aspect is that some involves state biz taking money abroad, storing tit there, then repatriating it with special tax and corrupt gains.  As it’s increasingly linked to Xi, strengthens his opponents.  As the Chinese factions start to out each other, that’ll be a sign of the end. They all know that they’re all corrupt, all have the goods on each other.  Global Times – the yellow-journalism outlet of the Beijing regime –squawked that the West is releasing this. Wrote only of Putin’s corruption. How could Xi not know that the law from would be penetrated, given the cyber espionage he’s running.  What do you suppose are the  Mossack Fonseca fees?   This firm is far from being the most important – there are maybe 800 majors worldwide.  The Middle Kingdom is so stupid they thought that a Panama company wouldn’t be hacked.  The US could easily release vastly, vastly more info.  . . . Panama is close to the US - “We own Panama; we created it!” -  it’d be a nice quid pro quo for all the Chinese hacks.  Xi Jinping: not bright, guy; not bright. http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/panama-papers-jump-chinese-language-barrier-get-suppressed-by-censors-20160404-gnydgr.html
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Rick Fisher, senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: China's proliferation of weapons to North Korea. Our enemies include DPRK and its enabler, China. A missile goes on a transporter erector-launcher, a TEL . North Korea has two ICBMs; KN-08; can fly perhaps to Anchorage. In Oct 2015, it revealed an new version: the KN-14. Has a redesigned first, second, and third stage, with a new engine to carry a larger warhead farther, this can get to Chicago or Toronto. Will soon be able to reach New York and Washington. In 2011, China gave DPRK g6 16-wheel TELs. Militarily significant: most of DPRK long-range missiles are stored near Pyongyang, but to be a mil asset, needs to move out fast to a secret location. North Korea may have a second source for TELs, from Pakistan, as Pakis now have a 16-wheeled TEL from the same Chinese company.  This truck could be exported to Iran.  With mobile missiles, very hard to find or destroy on the ground. Makes North Korea’s missile threat quite dangerous, DoD calls it “operational.”   The reason it's a threat to the US is the Chinese 16-wheel TEL.  This creates a viable proxy nuclear threat – ties down India (concentrating India’s attn. on Pak instead of China) and turns North Korea into a credible nuclear power. Increases China’s leverage through its false promises to discipline its errant ally 0 a paten lie – and ties us down, China gets away with malfeasance in the South China Sea. If DPRK actually fires one of these missiles and hits someone, might let China invade Taiwan.  China ha sold BDPRK a truck to carry it short-range ballistic missile with accuracy of a few meters (circular error probability).
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Jerry Hendrix, CNAS , in re:  White House issues gag order against the US Navy. Oops.   Establishment of artificial constructs called islands in South China Sea is aggression, Japanese sub in a Philippine port; Skyshield installed in Indonesia for protection. Freedom of navigation operation; amphibious Boxer Group also in area. An escalation of the intensity of US freedom of navigation from Dec and Jan.   All these hints and leaks; WH issued a warning that it wanted no discussion in advance of the nuclear summit for Pres Obama to negotiate with Xi on nuclear weapons reduction, an Obama bijou,  Note that you cannot really keep a DoD secret if it needs to be released. Clausewitz: mil force is to carry out political goals.  When current policy runs heavily counter to centuries of strategic wisdom,  . . . Scarborough Shoal: China builds platforms. Two typos of earthquakes – a series of small ones, or build up pressure over time to a huge quake. Navy is asking for a series of small shocks; but  to put these off is to aim to a large shock. Philippines are the US’s longest-term ally in the region;  to crate a big shock in the first months of a new president is to ask for a disaster.  Bernie says he wants to cut DoD funding, and the bizman from New York leaving allies, these are shocks to the system.  Xi would love to beat up on the US for domestic political reasons.  Expect each regional power, including weak and small ones, to arm heavily, in the absence of the US. Japan is beginning to militarize – the US will have destabilized the whole region.
Sometime in early April, the United States will carry out its third freedom of navigation patrol through waters in the South China Sea claimed by Beijing, Reuters reported April 2 citing an anonymous high-level source. The source specified that although the USS Stennis carrier strike group is operating in the area, the patrol will likely be conducted by a smaller vessel. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded by saying that Beijing resolutely opposes these patrols. U.S. President Barack Obama met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on April 1 on the sidelines of a nuclear summit in the United States. Xi said that his government would not accept further patrols in violation of sovereignty. Beijing's and Washington's divergent perspectives on the South China Sea are rooted in radically different national and regional strategies. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been the unquestioned pre-eminent power in the Pacific Rim, assisted by its allies, most notably Japan and South Korea. Simultaneously, however, China has been emerging as a potential regional hegemon, and the South China Sea has become the most visible area of tension. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-31/indonesia-to-deploy-f-16s-to-guard-its-south-china-sea-territory ; http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-obama-asia-20160401-story.html
On Thursday, with about 50 world leaders in Washington for the Nuclear Security Summit, only the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea received full, formal meetings with Obama, a clear sign of his priorities.
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Josh Rogin, Bloomberg View, in re: Saudi Arabia. . . . Syria is such a colossal mess that both are true:  if you’re not a terrorist or the regime,  you're the other guys. DoD is arming the Kurds; WH is negotiating with Assad, Russia and Iran, Saudis are enraged.  They want to arm the rebels and topple Assad. Pres Obama doesn't believe that’s possible.  Saudis see this as moronic, and they have a point. 
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  (1 of 4) Wisconsin Trump campaign statement tonight: pic.twitter.com/ycqP3IJYWn
Trump spokeswoman: Cruz campaign is being run by "Bush people" hill.cm/pwChtZ5 pic.twitter.com/jwtLpM21rE
Sanders ahead of Clinton in new national poll hill.cm/L98D8SA pic.twitter.com/vIvoxSN7TV
New York    "questions"     cnn.com/2016/04/06/pol… pic.twitter.com/u4rhU6nJP4
Trump rally briefly closes domestic abuse center      hill.cm/AH4dt9I pic.twitter.com/NWz1UtsTzM
Trump turns down invite to anti-abortion conference    hill.cm/VYYnaxO pic.twitter.com/hmTcNQeEZZ
Cruz: Look at Trump's checkbook to see "New York values"    hill.cm/t1igyEu pic.twitter.com/jk2QW8H72b
"What the Wisconsin results mean for Trump" hill.cm/0rXYVtH pic.twitter.com/LA4zjsVVPU
Pennsylvania   Clinton and Trump have single-digit leads in Pennsylvania, the latest @QuinnipiacPoll finds bloom.bg/1Sb5vnb pic.twitter.com/9JPd4BqYZ7
Dem strategist: Clinton's lead is insurmountable | WATCH: hill.cm/bCwPKfj pic.twitter.com/OVDMRqP9gP
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (2 of 4)
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (3 of 4)
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor  (4 of 4)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block AThe Conquering Tide: War in the Pacific Islands, 1942-1944 (Pacific War Trilogy) by Ian W. Toll   Part III of III  (segment 9 of 12)
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: The Conquering Tide: War in the Pacific Islands, 1942-1944 (Pacific War Trilogy) by Ian W. Toll   Part III of III  (segment 10 of 12)
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  The Conquering Tide: War in the Pacific Islands, 1942-1944 (Pacific War Trilogy) by Ian W. Toll   Part III of III  (segment 11 of 12
Wednesday   6 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: The Conquering Tide: War in the Pacific Islands, 1942-1944 (Pacific War Trilogy) by Ian W. Toll   Part III of III  (segment 12 of 12)