The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 31 August 2016

Air Date: 
August 31, 2016

Photo, left: China has sold to North Korea a solid-fuel, two-stage, nuclear-capable, long-range ballistic missile. See: Hour 2, Block A, Bruce Bechtol, professor at Angelo State University and author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era.  Pix from the Korean Central News Agency website, which is the DPRK regime’s propaganda site, i.e., no copyright. If you go to KCNA, beware the cookies. 
Aaddendum:  see the news article at the end of this page.  http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/09/02/0301000000AEN2016090...

. . . Bruce Bechtol, a North Korea expert at Angelo State University in Texas, made the remark during an interview with the John Batchelor Show radio news program, calling the North's SLBM, known as KN-11, a "carbon copy" of China's JL-1 submarine missile.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:  Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re:  Donald J Trump in Mexico; a larger mtg on the politics of the planet, the G20, 3-4Septemer, China’s first instance of hosting the meeting of those who work together or not for peace and trade. The US and Canada are among those attending, Mr Trudeau will attend for the first time. What will Trudeau want? Perhaps to re-set elations between China and Canada to resume the warmth ‘twixt his father and Chou and Mao. Also wrest power away from the the US, and Canada is a rising power.   Enormous -$2 bil PA – of seeds gong from Canada to China, which is embargoing hem on grounds of a fungus  Extradition of Chinese citizens whom China has decided hat Canada should send back; a highly asymmetrical relationship. No country has good relations with Beijing these days. Canada issued a muted statement according “legality” to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague.  But Mr Trudeau may not say a mumblin’ word on this in China. Chinese within Canada are currently exerting excessive influence there, to the alarm of Canadians. Michael Chan is said to be instrumental in quashing negative press on China; this has engendered bad feeling among the citizenry.   Elites in the Liberal Party having strong connections to the Chinese regime are pressing for kindness to Beijing, while the citizenry is nursing increasingly negative sentiments, esp concerning China’s widespread, ham-handed suppression of normal activities and bad human rights record. “Bourgeois democracy is simply a tool of the imperialist West.” 
China Prepares to Deflect Backlash at G-20 Summit  At this Sunday’s G-20 summit in Hangzhou, one of China’s emerging goals is to deflect criticism that it’s a hindrance to global growth, amid a world-wide backlash against globalization. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/visit-to-china-a-tricky-one-for-trudeau/article31519434/  ; http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-31/paul-keating-warns-australia-to-prepare-for-the-rise-of-china/7800062
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Stephen Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party; CEO of D.C. International Advisory; and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re:  Pres Obama’s final G20 – is he in a good position to speak forcibly about the Chinese provocation in the South and Eat China Seas, and with Russia, and anent the ne-Dash Line?   Would like to think that any president would continue American role as a stabilizing force, which has been a valuable fore for regional economic dvpt.  Regret that he’ll be seen as a lame duck, and the fact that it; occurring in China, all suggest less US power and less [respect] for the US. Host wants to make sure that there will be no on contentious discussions – nothing about naval provocations, Kashmir, or any major issue; rather, only about goals. China will ensure that nothing important will be on the agenda.  G20 has been marginally useful for the get-go, and less useful now, Forget security issues; economics: China is one of he most protected nations on the planet, yet aggressive outside of its borders.  Modi will visit Vietnam before the mtg, an Obama will visit Laos, long a Chinese client. In fact the side mtgs are far more important than the main [ballyhooed] mtg.   Chinese are very good at taking a finger and putting it right in our eyeball.  China can make up a charge from long ago and US citizens’s rights somehow are not protected. Cultural Revolution —thy e pick people up off the street and throw ‘em in jail. Anyone who goes to China now is putting himself at risk. Jackal-like approach to taking technology.    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-china-idUSKCN1140CN  ; http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-usa-idUSKCN115159
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block C:  Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re:  the fall of Xi Jinping. “Chinese banks step up bad loans write-off”  “Suicide bomber hits China’s embassy in Kyrgyzstan” – and a dozen others; why is China punching down and punching up? What is Xi doing?  Dig back into Chinese history to the martial emperor, often the third emperor. Xi starts campaigns that end in defeat et everyone angry at him. In 2009, made extraordinary claims on the South China Sea –bigger than the Mediterranean.  Now neighbors are thinking of going nuke, China has been cracking down since 1950, today vs Muslims – most unwise. All land neighbors are Muslim. An effort to seize every kind of power, leading to chaos. No single logic.  Remember  Kissinger’s overweight book, quoting Mao: “We should take on everyone at the same time” –bu t Mao never did.  These are not just enemies- they're actors; e.g., South Koreans who wanted ot be friendly with China and now are scared as hell. ROK will go nuke; then surely Japan; conceivably Vietnam.   Xi is setting in motion a fight that will start more trouble [than can be managed]/.   Xi is increasing party factionalism, and at some point domestic enemies will turn against Xi and get him.  India, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia—every neighbor is highly displeased. 
In 1912: Plan Orange, anticipating the US to be at war with Japan. An empire in crisis with different nationalities, trying to squeeze them into forms that don’t fit and standardize behavior; while Beijing expects to be respected and admired – completely disproportional and out of step with [neighbors]. Recognizable analogies to previous instances of war.  China is the Middle Kingdom, and complex; but it’s acting like the aggressor state that Japan became: militarizing islands. 
Why Is China Picking a Fight with Everyone? G-20 Mystery. @GordonGChang. Charles Burton. Stephen Yates. Arthur Waldron. @JerryHenrix11. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/visit-to-china-a-tricky-one-for-trudeau/article31519434/  ;  http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-31/paul-keating-warns-australia-to-prepare-for-the-rise-of-china/7800062 ; http://www.reuters.com/article/us-g20-china-idUSKCN1140CN ; http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-usa-idUSKCN115159
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Captain Jerry Hendrix, CNAS, in re:  PLA Air Force's South China Sea patrol a "New Normal" - China Military ; english.chinamil.com.cn    The PLA Air Force conducted two patrols over the Huangyan Island, which had something to do with the so-called South China Sea arbitration and also demonstrated Chinese military's stance that it is able to conduct effective management and control in the region.  http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2016-08/25/content_7224679.htm
PLA air force routinely flying over Scarborough Shoals; these military aircraft are meant to intimidate the Philippines, but the US happens to fly around there a lot. The US Navy: an admiral says US is quite capable of operating inside an air-denial region.  US will deploy knowing that we’re under the gun of the PLAN and PLAF. China is making threatening gestures and the US ignores them. US has long sailed and flown over international waters.   “Air dominance”: where we fly, we’ll have dominance at that moment.   If the US has a carrier in the East China Sea, for example, we’ll have dominance while there; when we go, China may sail in and fill the vacuum – except the US might in a moment turn around and come back in.  If the South China Sea dos nit come up at h G20, let's [hope/assume] that someone else will.  Seeing China’s current trajectory, hard to imagine that China will continue pushing so hard, must be frustrated for not having achieved he universal respect China thinks it deserves; and frustration may lead to precipitate action, which would be a big mistake. China regularly sends patrols deep into Indian territory but never yet fire a shot, Eventually, Chia will try to portray itself as the victim of another power’s aggression, and then maybe shoot.  From thc Chief of Naval Operations down to the most junior cadet, everyone knows that the primary concern is China, and the US Navy is preparing itself to protect freedom of navigation around the world.
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Bruce Bechtol, professor at Angelo State University and author of North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era, in re:  China's sale to the North Koreans of a solid-fuel, two-stage, nuclear-capable, long-range ballistic missile.  This is breaking news today.  Recently, DPRK boasted about submarine-launched ballistic missiles.  Now, the JL1 (CSSN3) is a Chinese-made missile, range of 1500km, solid-fuel (advanced), was previously first tested in a Chinese Gulf-class sub.  DPRK’s current sub is a variant of Gulf-class from Russia in the 1990s. If China gave North Korea this missile – US policy has been for years to rein in DPRK’s nuclear program—if China is fuelling that program then we need to review or relations with China.  China sold truck-pulled missile launchers (erector launchers) to DPRK, then claimed they were for hauling lumber! Only Dr Tal Inbar [Tal Inbar at Israeli Fisher Institute] in Israel and I are speaking of this.  If this sub has the range we think it has, it could sail to Hawaii and hit Honolulu.  This missile comes equipped with nuke warhead. Xia-class sub.  We may be seeing an unprecedented move; no indication previously of a solid-fuel program – saw evidence of it only this summer. See FAS site, JL1, Xia-class sub.
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Jean Lee, global Fellow at the Wilson Center, based in Seoul, in re: North Korea executed purported political opponents with an antiaircraft gun. This is a mode of instilling control via a reign of terror.  All three leaders, Kims and sons – have used terror to keep control.  At the seventh Party Congress in May, two supposedly-killed officials reappeared, but Kim Jong-eun has genuinely killed at least 100 officials so far.  Over three generations of Kim tyranny: with each generation harder to keep absolute control.  So unpredictable, ruthless.  The dynasty’s founder, Kim Il-sung, was seen as a true god; but the grandson is young in a Confucian society and has trouble maintaining the original mystique. He’s roughly the same age now that his grandfather was when  came to power; but Jong-eun was out of commission for a while, reappeared with a can, which his father and grandfather would not have done.  Why are South Koreans publicizing recent defections from the elite classes?   Proof of a fissure in the loyalty f he elites?  Pres Pak is trying to drive the North to the brink – she wants to put Kim Jong-eun under.  / http://www.voanews.com/a/recent-north-korean-defections-is-the-end-is-ne/3477548.html  ; http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/30/asia/north-korea-executes-education-official/index.html
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Martin Fackler, Tokyo, in re: Japan’s ‘Hail Mary’: An Ice Wall Beneath Fukushima  The project is designed to keep water out of the damaged reactor buildings at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, and radioactive water from reaching the Pacific. Critics say it may not work.
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Bill Gertz, Washington Free Beacon, in re: China is dvpg missile-defensive capabilities, hypersonic weapon. Whence? Don't know, but they've been working on research for  decade; probably stole some technology for the US This is revolutionary, game-changing technology, Designed to fly on the edge of space, in the zone between the atmosphere and space; flies at 4000 to 7000 mph. A huge problem for missile defense. Lockheed Martin: an extended range version of the FAD? missile; also lasers, an airborne laser on a drone to target thise.DF21D paraded with Putin. Cyberwarfare, space weapons – all intended to fight the US.  In all these, China is either on a par with or ahead of the US.  Dual conventional and nuclear-capable. China regards THAD? As a threat to its own deployments, offered South Korea bribes to turn down these missiles, but now are on aggressive dvpt. Playing a major information warfare game and so far losing. Trying to force every Asian country to kowtow to Beijing.  The estimates are that this thing is less than five years away—in 2020. Seven tests in the past three years is unprecedented.   http://atimes.com/2016/08/china-gears-up-for-missile-warfare-with-us/
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Francs Rose, WJLA Government Matters; and WMAL; in re:  The VA and suicides. A 76-year-old veteran on Long Island was denied help, went to the parking lot and killed himself.  Horribly sad story.  Calls attention to the ongoing discussion on how he VA handles mental health issues. Once you get care, physical health care is moderately good; in mental health, however, the VA has come a very long way – in PTSD and other issues – but sometimes it's not adequate.  Veterans have not embraced Veterans’s Choice Program (voucher to use a physician in private practice if you live 40 or more miles away from a relevant VA hospital).  Subsequently expanded he program but VA wouldn't promote it so vets didn't know much of it.  Overall. The VA system (when it works) is good and much favored.  Struggle in logistics: getting people in to care in the first place In Wisconsin: facility was handing out drugs, a Marine died from one of them, 
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Francs Rose, WJLA Government Matters; and WMAL; in re:  Whistleblower refuses $305,000 to go away.
Veteran Affairs Suicides & Whistleblowers. @FrancisRoseDC, WJLA-TV, WMAL.
After ethics officials blocked the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) from firing a woman who refused to lie for top bosses, the bosses took a different tack: paying her $305,000 to quit and agree not to apply to the VA again.
Her bosses tried to force Rosayma Lopez to write a critical report to be used to terminate Joseph Colon, who had exposed the drunk-driving and illegal-prescription drug arrest of Dewayne Hamlin, director of the VA’s hospital in San Juan.
When Lopez said she would stick to the facts, her bosses filed the termination paperwork intended for Colon against her instead.
After she sought protection from the Office of Special Counsel (OSC), a federal agency that investigates whistleblower retaliation in government, OSC ordered VA to restore Lopez to her job. But VA refused, instead paying her to sit at home for nine months.
When OSC reiterated the demand, VA reluctantly restored her job, but then offered her $150,000 to quit and agree not to re-apply. Lopez declined the offer, which she had never requested, and made clear she just wanted to keep her job.
Lopez’s job involves processing Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests, so VA officials worried she could disclose embarrassing information to future requesters. She was assigned a new boss, who insisted on handling FOIA responses himself, by telling requesters they would be charged thousands or tens of thousands of dollars. To justify the exorbitant charges, he claimed that simple requests that would take five minutes to fulfill would require dozens of hours of top staffers’ time.. . . .http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/25/nyregion/veteran-kills-himself-in-parking-lot-of-va-hospital-on-long-island.html  ;  http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/30/va-offers-anti-corruption-whistleblower-305000-to-go-away/
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Philip Fearnside in Brazil, in re: Amazon deterioration. Brazilian politics threaten environmental policies   Philip M. Fearnside
Science  19 Aug 2016: Vol. 353, Issue 6301, pp. 746-748 ; DOI: 10.1126/science.aag0254 ; http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6301/746
What Lies Behind the Recent Surge of Amazon Deforestation    After declining by more than 70 percent in recent years, deforestation in the Amazon is soaring. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, scientist Philip Fearnside explains what’s driving the clearing of the Amazon and what needs to be done to once again bring deforestation under control.
The ecologist Philip Fearnside has lived and worked in the Brazilian Amazon for 30 years and is one of the foremost authorities on deforestation in the world’s largest tropical forest. A professor at the National Institute for Research in the Amazon, Fearnside has focused his work on how to sustainably develop the Amazon in the face of enormous pressures to cut and clear the forest.
Fearnside is now watching with alarm as, after a decade of declining deforestation rates, the pace of cutting and forest clearing in the Amazon is on the rise again. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, Fearnside explains the factors behind the resurgence in deforestation, including a slowly improving global economy, rising commodity prices, and recently enacted Brazilian laws and policies that are encouraging the development of the Amazon. Fearnside warns that this great tropical forest will sustain even graver losses if Brazil’s newly re-elected [and now disgraced] President Dilma Rousseff — who is backed by large landowners and agribusiness interests — doesn’t change course.  . . .  (1 of 2)
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Philip Fearnside in Brazil, in re: Amazon deterioration. (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Code Warriors: NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union, by Stephen Budiansky (1 of 4)
A sweeping, in-depth history of NSA, whose famous “cult of silence” has left the agency shrouded in mystery for decades
The National Security Agency was born out of the legendary codebreaking programs of World War II that cracked the famed Enigma machine and other German and Japanese codes, thereby turning the tide of Allied victory. In the postwar years, as the United States developed a new enemy in the Soviet Union, our intelligence community found itself targeting not soldiers on the battlefield, but suspected spies, foreign leaders, and even American citizens. Throughout the second half of the twentieth century, NSA played a vital, often fraught and controversial role in the major events of the Cold War, from the Korean War to the Cuban Missile Crisis to Vietnam and beyond.
In Code Warriors, Stephen Budiansky—a longtime expert in cryptology—tells the fascinating story of how NSA came to be, from its roots in World War II through the fall of the Berlin Wall. Along the way, he guides us through the fascinating challenges faced by cryptanalysts, and how they broke some of the most complicated codes of the twentieth century. With access to new documents, Budiansky shows where the agency succeeded and failed during the Cold War, but his account also offers crucial perspective for assessing NSA today in the wake of the Edward Snowden revelations. Budiansky shows how NSA’s obsession with recording every bit of data and decoding every signal is far from a new development; throughout its history the depth and breadth of the agency’s reach has resulted in both remarkable successes and destructive failures.
Featuring a series of appendixes that explain the technical details of Soviet codes and how they were broken, this is a rich and riveting history of the underbelly of the Cold War, and an essential and timely read for all who seek to understand the origins of the modern NSA.”
https://www.amazon.com/Code-Warriors-Codebreakers-Intelligence-Against/d...
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Code Warriors: NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union, by Stephen Budiansky (2 of 4)
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Code Warriors: NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union, by Stephen Budiansky (3 of 4)
Wednesday   31 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Code Warriors: NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union, by Stephen Budiansky (4 of 4)
 
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http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2016/09/02/0301000000AEN2016090...

 

Politics/Diplomacy

NationalPolitics/Diplomacy

China could have provided N. Korea with submarine missile: U.S. expert 
2016/09/02 05:19
 

WASHINGTON, Sept. 1 (Yonhap) -- China could have provided North Korea with the submarine-launched ballistic missile that the regime in Pyongyang successfully test-fired last week, a U.S. expert claimed Thursday.
Bruce Bechtol, a North Korea expert at Angelo State University in Texas, made the remark during an interview with the John Batchelor Show radio news program, calling the North's SLBM, known as KN-11, a "carbon copy" of China's JL-1 submarine missile.
"The missile that the North Koreans launched looks like it's a two-stage missile just like the JL-1. It looks like it's a solid-fuel missile just like the JL-1," Bechtol said, adding that the North Korean missile is believed to be "a JL-1 or a very, very close variant."

   "Just looking at the JL-1 and the North Korean SLBM, they're looking exactly the same," he said.
Bechtol said that China has a record of providing the North with military hardware, saying the North acquired transporter-erector-launchers (TEL), a vehicle used in carrying and launching missiles, from China in recent years.
The professor also said that he has some joint research with space program expert Tal Inbar of Israel's Fisher Institute and the two shared the view that the North's SLBM could have come from China.
"He and I agree that there is really not any other missile that looks similar at all to this North Korean missile whereas the JL-1 looks like a carbon copy of it," he said.
The North successfully conducted the latest SLBM test last week, sending the missile, designated KN-11, some 500 kilometers over the East Sea, the greatest distance the communist nation has achieved since it began SLBM tests last year.
Moreover, the missile was launched at a high angle, meaning the missile could have flown farther.
State Department spokesman John Kirby declined comment on Bechtol's claims.
"I'm not able to speak to intelligence matters here from the podium," Kirby said at a regular press briefing.
jschang@yna.co.kr