The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 3 June 2015

Air Date: 
June 03, 2015

Photo, left: Soldiers of Vietnam's People's Army.  tweet:  Aaron Mehta @AaronMehta
Vietnamese military plays the US anthem for [SecDef Ash] Carter. Kind of amazing to think about. https://vine.co/v/eh5QBZbZdYM 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Harry Kazianis, executive editor of The National Interest and senior Fellow for defense policy at the Center for the National Interest, in re:  US needs to document every single Chinese depredation in the South China Sea and put all the vids out on the Net. This will have a dramatic effect on world opinion.  US cold also lead a coalition of nations to say to China, This must stop; it's not helpful to exactly the structure that's been so beneficial to you." China has not only destroyed a lot of coral, but has created a coalition opposing China.  It'd be impolitic for the US to push Vietnam.
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Sara Cook, senior research analyst for East Asia at Freedom House,  in re:  Internet Police Uncle: a push for people who’ve self-identified as Net police to interact with Netizens. The real Net police continue to work behind he scenes. use surveillance, n what people are writing and where they are, then arrest hem.  Uncle Cop is an intimidation effort.   This requires more people meaning more money.  Also, more sophisticated ways of blocking workarounds. The scary part is that under Xi Jinping people a re being arrested and jailed.   However, the thuggish intimidation makes people self-censor, which is damaging, but also fuels resentment.   IPU  "Hello dear Netizens, I hope you can all support me. Building a harmonious society requires everyone to calm down and be polite." Read: we're following your every keystroke.  The Net Cops are infantilizing the Chinese people.
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Hotel Mars episode n. Alan Stern, Director of Southwest Institute; in re: Hubble telescope sees "a reckless teenager who refuses to follow the rules." Final approach to explore a new planet, hasn’t been done in a generation; never panned again by any space program on Earth, Unique  Most exciting: seeing Pluto get bigger in the windshield, & that Hubble can give such fantastic results Pluto has four small moons & one big (Sharon_); the four small are much more complicated than thought – rotations s are chaotic; different brightness;  no periodicity – they’re rotating chaotically.  Little ones range in size from that of counties to that of a New England state. They're all in the equatorial plane; we think all four were born at the same time, maybe by another small planet that struck Pluto a glancing blow and so the moons are in effect ejecta.  We believe that Pluto's moon system was formed by the same sort of events as formed the Earth's Moon system: these thus are the only two places we know of in the universe where this occurred.  We're at at the frontier of the Solar System, 3 billion miles away.  We built this spacecraft to receive data in torrents – it has vast power and speed; can receive more than 100X faster than it can transmit back.  We have spectacular photos from Ceres. "I actually coined the term 'dwarf planet'; the imagery we get from New Horizon will be better than anything we even have from Ceres."  Later, will gather info on Kuyper Belt.   Pluto has four moons; maybe more?  Maybe more.  This will be all over NASA TV, many broadcasts, incl TV specials by Discover, PBS, Nat Geo. We have kits anyone can have for any group called:  Plutopalooza Kit. Go to NASA  New Horizons website, public info:
http://pluto.jhuapl.edu
&
http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/Participate/community/Plutopalooza-Toolkit.php
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block D:  Josh Rogin, Bloomberg View, in re:  A crisis of words in the South China Sea relating to "reclamation" in the Spratly Islands.  Secy Ash Carter shook his finger at the PLA Navy anent the militarization to control previously-submerged reefs not build into air bases.   Ash Carter first spoke from Hawaii with harsh words, then in the meeting said how he wanted to resolve everything well. Then Adm Sun said that China will build wherever it wants and won’t negotiate.  Vietnam is doing "reclamation," but the scale and scope of China's building overwhelm everyone else, not just the artillery. Next?  The Obama Administration is discussing things   China demands a 12-mil zone around its new islets; US has not yet breached that.   China recently sent a spy ship to a friendly meeting/exercise; this was found most off-putting by the other attendees.  China could escalate by declaring an ADIZ (air defense ID zone).   Japanese expert said China is considering this. China will reliably push on all fronts to see where resistance is.  This is the fourth Shangri-La Dialogue I've attended, and at each the pattern is that China constantly and steadily escalates its activities. Low-intensity provocation.
Hour Two
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Mark Kao, president of Formosan Association for Public Affairs, in re:  January 2016 election in Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen of DPP has a good chance of wining, Ma Ying-jeou, of the Pan Blue and Kuomintang (KMT), who clearly is much too intimate with Beijing, is no longer highly favored. Meanwhile US policy has swung remarkably back in favor of Taiwan, The increasing Mainland belligerence and Ma's bad behavior have caused the State Dept to reassess and swing to Taiwan. Further, it can see the polling results in Taiwan and that it’s the DPP's election to lose. KMT was wiped out in local elections.  . . . The US needs Taiwan maybe more than Taiwan needs the US, what with Beijing's aggression in the South China Sea.   Taiwan can be a major player if it wants to recognize it. Taiwan is a very large aircraft carrier.
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block B:  Mike Davis, professor at Hong Kong University Law School, in re:  Local Hong Kong officials invited to nearby Mainland to discuss maters of common interest; as usual, the Mainlanders lectured the Hong Kong guests, basically put up or shut up.   Mainland needs certain votes in an election; when the LegCo ["ledge-co", the Hong Kong Legislative Council]  doesn't vote the way Beijing wants, Beijing will blame Hong Kong.  Or, one side is damage control/hedging bets; on the other, face the strong prospect that Beijing's measures will not pass, so blame blame.  It's in the DNA of the Communist Party to be inflexible, but under Xi it's got a whole lot worse – party used to be flexible and give the impression of being reasonable. Now, there are big problems in Beijing and everyone has to take a maximalist position. 
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block C:  David Feith, Wall Street Journal Asia in Hong Kong, in re:  South China Sea, Spratly Islands; Vietnamese Spratlys. US DoD Secy Ash Carter and Adm Sun of the PLA.  The Shangri-La Dialogue: last year, real fireworks – Japan, then US (Chuck Hagel), then Chinese speaker was shockingly aggressive, he went off script for ten minutes, made rude comments about Japan and China.   This year, the security situation is worse and everyone is on edge Nonetheless, everyone (esp China) dialled it down.  China took the opposite position of last year, let its deeds speak for themselves. Junior officers in the Chinese mil delegation were dismissive of the US; not aggressive – aggression is what they're doing in the water – but scornful. Conveyed that they don't expect to have to take Washington seriously, at least until Obama leaves office. Under a theoretical Hillary Clinton presidency?    . . .  Region is all focussed on freedom of navigation. Next day 9actually, even before the conference officially ended), US Defense Chief flies to Vietnam – where the Vietnamese military played the Star-Spangled Banner.  See: on Vine.  Stormy weather makes friends. Last year, the US loosened its arms embargo on Vietnam, will sell at least maritime mil platforms; not McCain, et al., are pushing for an expanded arms relations with Vietnam. A reaction to Chinese bullying. 
 
John Batchelor ‏‪@batchelorshow‬   John Batchelor retweeted Aaron Mehta
No atheists in a foxhole, is the proverb.
Aaron Mehta ‪@AaronMehta‬
Vietnamese military plays the US anthem for Carter. Kind of amazing to think about. ‪https://vine.co/v/eh5QBZbZdYM 
The Great American Rethink on China: Washington may be junking a strategy of integration that has ruled for 45 years.  –Singapore:  Beijing’s bid to dominate one of the world’s most important waterways, the South China Sea, is again the focus as U.S. and Asian leaders gather here for the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s top security summit. Last year’s meeting occurred as China was drilling for oil in Vietnamese waters and shooting water cannons at ships that tried. .
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Aaron Back, WSJ Heard on the Street, Hong Kong, in re:  . . . Yahoo is the number-one search engine in Japan  is both the google and the eBay of Japan (only rival is Rakutin).   Jerry Yang connected with Alibaba and Softbank.
Yahoo Japan Sees Friend in Alibaba   In the U.S., Yahoo is winding down its long relationship with Alibaba. It’s a different story for Yahoo’s Japanese cousin.  Yahoo Japan and Alibaba said Friday that they had agreed to work together to promote Japanese wares in China. The stock-market reaction was euphoric—Yahoo Japan shares rose nearly 12%—suggesting some investors may be hoping for an even closer partnership.  Yahoo Japan started out as a joint venture between the U.S. portal and SoftBank, a Japanese telecommunications and Internet conglomerate. Today it is Japan’s top search engine and one of its two biggest e-commerce players, along with archrival Rakuten.  In the deal announced Friday, the companies said they would work together to bring Japanese merchants onto Tmall, Alibaba’s premium shopping platform. There were few other details.
The tie-up makes sense. Though Alibaba plays up its ambition to expand internationally, selling to the world is probably not the company’s biggest opportunity. Rather the potential lies in bringing the world to China. Underdevelopment of retail stores and logistics chains in China has long made it difficult for the country’s consumers to get the things they want, especially imports. This has been a major factor driving the growth of Alibaba and the broader e-commerce industry in China. The tie-up also looks well-timed. Tensions between China and Japan have . . .
Hour Three
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block A:  John C McManus, The Dead and Those About to Die: D-Day: The Big Red One at Omaha Beach (1 of 4)
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: John C McManus, The Dead and Those About to Die: D-Day: The Big Red One at Omaha Beach (2 of 4)
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: John C McManus, The Dead and Those About to Die: D-Day: The Big Red One at Omaha Beach (3 of 4) . . .  "Were to leave C4 carefully wrapped in c=socks; nothing went according to plan.   . . . When you were in the kill zone, you didn’t even have to move – the Germans just fired."n
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: John C McManus, The Dead and Those About to Die: D-Day: The Big Red One at Omaha Beach (4 of 4)
Hour Four
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Caen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia is a commune in northwestern France. It is the prefecture of the Calvados department and the ... / ‎Battle for Caen - ‎Caen stone - ‎Abbey of Sainte-Trinité, Caen - ‎Stade Malherbe Caen
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Omaha Beach - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia  Omaha Beach was the code name for one of the five sectors of the Allied invasion of German-occupied France in the Normandy landings on 6 June 1944, during ... ‎Into the Jaws of Death - ‎Dietrich Kraiß - ‎Battle of Kwajalein - ‎Norman Cota
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: Michael Tomasky, Daily Beast, in re:  Bernie Sanders: Understanding Bernie’s Strange Allureby Michael Tomasky June 02, 2015 05:15 AM EDTWhy Sanders draws the crowds, excites the base, polls relatively well—and still won’t make much of an impact in 2016.
What We’re Watching Today Mr. O’Malley and Mr. Sanders will meet with members of the American Federation of Teachers, a union whose endorsement would be a tremendous lift toward the Democratic nomination. Mr. O’Malley will also speak to another crucial group, the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.
Wednesday   3 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:  Russian s & Euros, et al., chasing SpaceX. Angara to launch commercial payload on next launch   The competition heats up: Russia has decided to accelerate use of its heavy Angara rocket by launching a commercial payload on its next launch in 2016.
They had initially planned to do more test flights. The technical problems with Proton, combined with increased competition from SpaceX and others, is forcing them to move at a less leisurely pace.
In the meantime, they have concluded their investigation into the Progress/Soyuz rocket failure, issuing an incredibly vague press release that only stated the following:
The damage to the ship during its abnormal separation from the third stage of the Soyuz-2-1a launch vehicle resulted from a particular property of the joint use of the cargo spacecraft and the launch vehicle. This design property was related to frequency and dynamic characteristics of joint vehicles. This design property was not fully accounted for during the development of the rocket and spacecraft complex.
Limitations on further flights of the Soyuz-2-1a rocket with other spacecraft had not been found.
It sounds to me as if they don’t know exactly what caused the abnormal separation between the rocket and the spacecraft, and that they have decided to move on regardless.
I think it would be very wise for the U.S. to get its own manned spacecraft operational as fast as possible.