Wednesday 3 August 2016
Photo, left:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Steve Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, CEO of D.C. International Advisory, and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: The TPP: either the US writes the trade rules for Asia or the Chinese Communist Party does. Better that we do. US has no barriers to incoming goods whereas China has lots of barriers to US goods. TPP doesn’t play well in Idaho or between the coasts. The TransPacific Partnership has ben demonized largely because of US failure to enforce trade regs – the problem lies with Administrations’s not enforce the deal. If you believe no one will enforce a deal and the other guy will always have the advantage, no need to support it. With or without the TPP, manufacturers will be retained in the cheapest country. Broad-based mistrust in the US; globalization seen as contributing to upheaval. Singaporean PM visited Washington: US paying more attention to East Asia while China tries to re-write rules in a provocative, belligerent manner. http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/02/politics/obama-singapore-state-visit-tpp-trade-deal/
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, in re: South Korea has lost confidence in US intention to protect South Korea; wants to defend itself, incl with nukes. US nuclear umbrella seen as iffy. Also want either US tac nukes brought back to South Korea or else let it have its own nuclear forces. More than half the population believes the country should have its own deterrent: Terminal High-Altitude Aerial Defense (THAD). China went nuts, enraged that South Korea intends to defend itself from North Korea. A certain political segment has made outlandish claims on THAD and much upset the populace. http://www.billboard.com/articles/columns/k-town/7454475/china-kpop-korean-missile-defense-dispute ; http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2016/08/116_210829.html
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief for Breitbart, in re: IS propaganda for months, since it's been losing in Iraq and Syria, is trying to recruit jihadis to Libya. Durna, Sirte, Benghazi: rival groups in each. ISIS, AQIM (Sirte, Durna, a little in Benghazi); now US confirms it's launched air strikes on Monday, days after the soi-disant Libyan govt made the request. Ansar al Sharia – shifting loyalty to IS or a Q — also present. Using Libya as a staging ground to get into Europe, in which IS is successful. UN estimates dozens of Tunisians have returned home to launch attacks there, while others have returned to Europe in sleeper cells. IS main focus is currently Libya. ISIS has a lot more cash than al Qaeda does so can pay fighters much higher salaries.
IS camps in Sinai; boasts have turned to threats in the last two days: to attack Jerusalem, Rome, Egypt, all Jews (“Oh Jews, the punishment we have prepared for you is severe and you will pay a high price.”). IS training camps in Sinai: some move to Egypt to attack, or stay in Sinai and prepare to attack Israel in the south despite the present fence. Israel has been conducting drone strikes with Cairo’s blessing against IS in Sinai. “A big operation coming in Eilat.” Whatever is in Sinai now is a threat not only to Israel and Egypt but to the Mediterranean Basin.
U.S. planes bombed Islamic State targets in Libya on Monday, responding to the U.N.-backed government's request to help push the militants from their former stronghold of Sirte in what U.S. officials described as the start of a sustained campaign against the extremist group in the city.
"The first air strikes were carried out at specific locations in Sirte today causing severe losses to enemy ranks," Prime Minster Fayez Seraj said on state TV. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said the strikes did not have "an end point at this particular moment in time".
Forces allied with Seraj have been battling Islamic State in Sirte - the hometown of the former dictator Muammar Gaddafi - since May. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-idUSKCN10C2NF
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Aaron Klein, Middle East bureau chief for Breitbart, in re: Municipal elections in the autumn in the West Bank: polls show that Hamas will win. Jockeying for control after Abbas: the PM; Saib Erekat; Mahmoud Dahlan in exile in Qatar, has excellent relations with the US State Dept. A coming leadership vacuum; opposing groups are arming loyalists in the West Bank for clashes on the Day After. Marwan Barghouti: was deputy to Arafat and architect of Intifada, now serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli jail –the US backs Barghouti! There’s a European movement to give Barghouti the Nobel Peace Prize.
Magal Security Systems looking toward its future: eyeing, should Trump win they want to be involved in bldg. a 2,000-mi barrier along US-Mexican border. Also behind the Gaza barrier, and new barrier to be built that Trump might want to try.
Hour Two
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Chris Harmer, senior military analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in re: the Hague Court erased China’s claim to jerry-built islands. Beijing responds: A clear legal basis for China to exercise its right in a jurisdiction. Coming: lawfare backed up by Chinese military. No trespassing signs all over the South China Sea; US Navy does not recognize this. Compare: The Black Sea, claimed by the USSR throughout the Cold War, which the US regularly sailed in to as practice of open seas. China claims he right to impound fishing vessels and imprison fishermen. Doing that in Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone The Filipino president is now urging Filipino fishermen to avoid Chinese vessels – this is grave and heck. US Nave needs to conduct regular freedom of navigation operations al along the contested waters. IUS should be leading multinational flotillas – but the US Navy doesn’t have the throw weight, or enough vessels for the funding, Chinese leaders hip is highly opportunistic, fills the power cap. Fortunately, the Indian navy has an interest there and is sending vessel. US cannot be the world’s policemen but must be first among equals. We need the resources and above al the political will – a shameful day for US leadership when we stand by and let China re-draw maps: this is how wars start, by letting madmen take control until we have to move – too late. Democracy is the best political form known but it's strategically inefficient. Russia has been about nine years behind us qualitatively in material & war-fighting, but are now catching up; are \six to eight years behind us and China farther behind, but when they mass together they beat us quantitatively http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/02/asia/south-china-sea-supreme-court/
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Rick Fisher, senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: HQ9, himing surface-to-air missile, by China, Been in dvpt since the late 1980s. Entered PLA air force service a few years ago. range of 150-200km, deployed to Woody Island. Impressive for a nation just beginning. The HQ19, been in dvpt for abt as long, a theater anti-missile system similar to THAD. Beijing loudly opposes THAD in South Korea just as it develops and deploys its own. Coming: HQ23 (similar to SM2-SM3 of US). Deployed all along China’s periphery probably vs India Will be on the three bogus islands in the Spratly Group. Will deny access and overflight: fourth-gen SAMs are very dangerous. Few air forces can protect against them. J15 is a knockoff of a Russian aircraft: - fly-by-wire system failed, pilot hit the ground and died. Russians have been adamant that China could never reverse-engineer the Sukoi SU33. Wrong: China has built about 30 of them; 8 on the Liaoning aircraft carrier. First goal is to secure the region, later, to ensure that China’s navy can project globally through the South China Sea. Can everyone hear that China is preparing for war?
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: The Nine-Dash Line, the East China Sea. China’s live-fire drills following strident rejection of the Hague Court decision. Japanese Defense Review opposes this. Mano-a-mano between China and Japan? China has been provoking for yeas over the Senkakus. China says We’re going nowhere, will enforce our claims; Japan has been more vocal over the past several years. As the US soft-pedals, China takes ever more advantage. Announced that it will arrest transgressors; is extremely active in Central Asia, where John Kerry merely holds a weak meeting. US could pressure China anent its hosting a major meeting in Hangchou in the fall. China claims that international waters are Chinese and are militarily enforcing that illegal claim. . . . If the US doesn’t act. China will take over the whole South China Sea, make all locals “trespassers,” and close off the global commons. Washington sits by flaccidly. With this sort of American behavior, no need to have a UN or a WTO. The White House seems to think there’s nothing it can do. Washington’s previous no-response was so feckless that now all it wants to do is [hide] and wait out the clock till January. http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-court-south-china-sea-2016-8?r=UK&IR=T ; AEI http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/how-the-us-misjudged-the-south-china-sea-...
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst, blogs at RealityChek, tweets at @AlanTonelson, in re: American businesses fail in China because China has a very large thumb on the scale.
India: Thirty per cent of products sold in Indian retail stores need to be made in India.
Alibaba and TenCent forced Uber out of China. Uber got crushed by the combined company and the Communist Party. Xi Jinping has been combining state enterprises back into monopolies, esp in steel. Uber wasn’t offering anything that China couldn’t do, itself, China is glad to let leading-edge technologies in, then copy them, then force the foreigners out, China will pressure or steal; no problem. We've chewed you up and will now spit you out—and then in near future will use US technology to manufacture American-designed goods and sell then into the US. The company that engages in predatory behavior receives all the initial gains. http://www.financialexpress.com/fe-columnist/uber-joins-google-facebook-twitter-club-flounders-in-china-cruises-in-india/336638/
Uber leaves China http://www.financialexpress.com/fe-columnist/uber-joins-google-facebook-twitter-club-flounders-in-china-cruises-in-india/336638/
Hour Three
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Washington Times managing editor, and Fox News, in re: the proposed intervention with Trump by alarmed Republicans. Republican heavyweights hope to enlist Trump’s children in the effort, according to the report.
Asked on Fox News about the report, Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort said it was the first he’d heard of it. But he added: “The only need we have for an intervention is maybe with some media types who keep saying things that aren’t true.”
A separate report, from ABC News, said Republican officials are exploring how to handle a scenario in which Trump would drop out of the race for the White House. Trump hasn't given any indication he no longer wants to be the Republican nominee, ABC noted. But the report said senior party officials are so frustrated and confused by his behavior of late that they are exploring how to replace him at the top of the GOP ballot if he did quit the race.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gingrich-giuliani-reportedly-planning-to-spearhead-a-trump-intervention-2016-08-03
This is a scenario that would be unthinkable in a normal election year: What would happen if the party's presidential nominee dropped out? So how would it work?
First, Trump would have voluntarily to exit the race. Officials say there is no mechanism for forcing him to withdraw his nomination. (Trump has not given any indication that he no longer wants to be his party's nominee.)
Then it would be up to the 168 members of the Republican National Committee to choose a successor, though the process is complicated.
One Republican legal expert has advised party officials that, for practical reasons, Trump would have to drop out by early September to give the party enough time to choose his replacement and get the next nominee's name on the ballot in enough states to win. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/senior-gop-officials-exploring-options-trump-drops/story?id=41089609 (1 of 4)
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Washington Times managing editor, and Fox News (2 of 4)
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Washington Times managing editor, and Fox News (3 of 4)
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Washington Times managing editor, and Fox News (4 of 4)
Hour Four
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Henry I Miller, Hoover, in re:
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Francis Rose, NationalDefenseWeek.com (WMAL) and francisrose.com, and now Channel 7 in Washington; and Channel 8 daily: "Government matters"; in re: NDAA:Congress should focus on three main points as it develops the final NDAA.
- Increase the total defense budget. Partially funding overseas operations is a risky maneuver. Instead, funding for overseas operations should be increased to support higher troop levels in both Afghanistan and Iraq. At the same time, funding for the main defense budget should also be increased. Heritage analysts have previously recommended a funding level of at least $600 billion for FY 2017 (instead of $551 billion) in addition to the full cost of OCO. Only with increased funding will the military be able to start rebuilding combat readiness, increasing the force size, and modernizing equipment. To do this, Congress should reduce non-defense discretionary spending to offset increases in defense spending while remaining below the total discretionary spending level set by the Budget Control Act.
- Ensure that combat readiness is appropriately funded. Increasing modernization and force size contributes to higher readiness over the long term, but training and maintenance are vital for current readiness. Congress should consider increasing funding for near-term readiness in the operations and maintenance accounts. The House NDAA focuses more on long-term readiness, but the military wish lists indicate that near-term readiness needs additional funding.
- Maintain a larger force and support modernization. The House NDAA plan to increase the size of the military (both personnel and equipment) is the right path. The House NDAA also increases investments in modernization, which is vital to the long-term strength of the military.
The military is stretched thin as threats against U.S. vital interests continue to grow. Rebuilding the military will take time, which makes the 2017 NDAA crucial. The time is now and the 2017 NDAA is the opportunity to start rebuilding the U.S. military.
.. .. ..
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2016/07/2017-ndaa-the-big-picture
The list is useful to break down the differences between what Obama/Carter want, House (Thornberry) wants, and Senate (McCain) wants.
.. .. ..
Other critical points:
--Thornberry is playing a long game, with both policy and hardware; will be HASC chair for many years to come.
--McCain senses possible election defeat, and, even if he wins, will lose SASC chair because of GOP Caucus term limits, so he's going more "big bet" than Thornberry, especially regarding DoD reorganization in Office of Secretary of Defense
--Ash Carter "Heartburn Letter"
http://www.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/839116/carter-writes-to-congress-outlining-2017-budget-concerns
is unprecedented in forcefulness of veto threat and language regarding his thoughts about the policies in each chamber's bill.
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re:
Wednesday 3 August 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: