The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 29 July 2015

Air Date: 
July 29, 2015

Photo, left: Russo-Japanese War, 1904, Yalu River
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re: The deal with the CCP is, We'll give you prosperity; you stay silent about human rights abuses.  Deal broken by the bad economy.  Palace intrigue: Xi got rid of Bo Shi-lai, imprisoned for life (and his wife, Gu Kai-lai, is convicted of murdering her English lover); now her prosecutor hangs himself in his apartment, all doors locked.  This sort of thing happens in a troubled regime.  Game of Thrones: Zhou Yong-kong, internal security czar and much feared has been jailed, family been humiliated.  A faction that at the moment is down – rise, fall; rise, fall. The PLA – the guys with the guns – have in the past pledged allegiance to Xi Jin-ping, but nothing is permanent.  Deng Xiao-ping was jailed three times.  Bo enjoys much popular support in provinces. The PLA is not monolithic – many internal factions. Were there to be a military could fracture or other, unimaginable activities. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.  http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2015/07/26/commentary/japan-commentary/abes-move-to-beef-up-military-role-brings-asia-closer-to-war/#.VbWHk7XGFqB
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: J. Michael Cole, senior non-resident Fellow, China Policy Institute, University of Nottingham, in re: In upcoming Taiwanese elections, Tsai Ing-wen, DPP, has a commanding lead, vs KMT, sends Hong Hsu-yu, a nationalist who want Mainland to absorb Taiwan – interesting but has little support.  Current president, Ma Ying-jeou, told BBC that "the present Mainland govt is unstable."  . . . Did Ma expect to have a mtg with Xi - smile, shake hands?  Not during the second term, when things were working out poorly.  . . . In the 9-in-1 polls, the Nov elections, KMT lost badly: attributed to the unpopularity of KMT's China policy; however, it was really the cavalier attitude of local KMT leaders, who'd lost touch with the populace. China's claims are basically Taiwan's claims on the South China Sea; however, Taipei doesn’t much try actively to enforce its claims, whereas Beijing does. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-33649127  /  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33648548
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. Dr Marc D Rayman, NASA JPL, in re:  Ceres.  Weather there is a bit cooler than today's New York(100 degrees); may be haze in a crater -  Occitor, which has intriguing bright spots in it; so bright that among Dawn's first sight was mesmerizing, glowing spots - but pretty clear. Three-mile-high pyramid shape – not pyramidal but conical; more like an Earthling volcanic cone.    CERES  Dwarf planet Ceres' mysterious 'bright spots' mapped by NASA's Dawn probe  Ceres is the largest object in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, and the only one to ...  Ceres' Mountains and Craters Now Have Names  ;  New color map highlights diverse geological features on Ceres
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  Francis Rose, Federal News Radio, in re: Obama Backs the Bureaucrats The President is hoping you’ve forgotten about the VA scandal.   Last night the White House issued a veto threat on the VA Accountability Act, which is expected to be voted on today in the House. Authored by Rep. Jeff Miller (R., Fla), the bill is intended to allow the Department of Veterans Affairs to quickly terminate corrupt and/or incompetent employees. Last August, following reports of delays and deficiencies in care that resulted in patient deaths, the President worked with Mr. Miller to enact legislation making it easier to fire senior VA officials. The current bill would apply similar reforms to the department’s rank and file.  But government-employee unions don’t like the new Miller bill, and perhaps the President has decided that the scandal has faded far enough in the public memory that he can now safely oppose reform. When the scandal was generating headlines last year, the President talked about accountability, his intolerance for VA misconduct and the public’s desire for a “swift reckoning.” But now apparently he reckons that the VA can function just fine while leaving most of its workforce untouched.
Mr. Miller is, to say the least, not satisfied that there has even been a full accounting of problems at the VA, never mind fixing all of them or firing all the rotten apples in the department’s workforce. Earlier this month the Associated Press noted that an “internal report by the agency’s Health Eligibility Center says about 238,000 of the 847,000 veterans with pending applications for VA health care are likely deceased. The applications go back nearly two decades and some applicants may have died years ago, although there is no way to tell for sure when or why the person died, the VA said.”  It’s hard to think of a more appalling government failure than the tragedy of veterans dying while federal workers review their applications for care. Still, the White House argues that the Miller bill would “dramatically impair VA’s ability to recruit top talent.”   This suggests a fundamental management problem that . . .
Hour Two
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re:  the Chinese stock market. . . .    $800 billion capital outflow of China in the recent past.  Were it such a great growth story there, why would money be racing out? The Brobdingnagian capital flight is dreadful for China and great for the rest of us.  . . . The past six weeks in the Chinese stock mkt has been a wake-up call to many.  Average Joes making millions of RMB; now, that they’ve lost their shirt.
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Sarah Cook, senior research analyst for East Asia at Freedom House, in re:  Self-censorship under the unelected tyrants of Beijing.
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-film/?utm_source=twitter/
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Michael Auslin, Director of Japan Studies, AEI, in re: Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is transforming Japan: expanding Japan militarily in Asia; air force exercise w Filipinos over South China Sea, and in conjunction with Australia. On his own authority, he can inc the defense budget, and opportunities to work with regional partners; also pressed for "collective self-defense" changes in Japanese law – to come to the aid of partner countries, esp the US, but eke Philippines, Vietnam, et al.  A comprehensively engaged Japan in the region; bldg a community that will have Beijing rethink its actins.  Tokyo would much appreciate a cooperative China, but understands that it's become coercive and aggressive. $50 bil defense budget but has every capability you’d want. Not ad hoc or dreaming; hard-headed about the threat  China poses to their island nation, to their trading economy.  Japan now starting to bld its own platform on its side, with radar, thus threatening China.  Even when China blds platforms to explore O&G drilling, Japan claims that it's drilling at a diagonal into Japanese territory.  Abe: bld your strength slowly and carefully. Ufa mtg: Russia and China as co-equals.   Abe has long desired a mtg w Putin to discuss broader issues and potential areas of cooperation; has slowed down a bit in face of Ukraine.  I'm pessimistic abt how far Russo-Chinese relations will go because the underlying dynamics are two nations that distrust ach other, Moscow stewarding it Siberian territory while China craves it.      . . . is suffering a surprising reversal of fortune, which I discuss in the Wall Street Journal this week. While he appears to be presiding over a thaw in relations with both China and South Korea, his domestic approval rating has fallen to 39% as a result of the passage of two controversial security bills. What links these two trends is his determination to modernize Japan's global role. 
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Alex Frangos, WSJ, Heard on the Street in HK, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-stock-market-recovery-goes-all-wobbly-1437984944 . . . There are no long-term investors in the Chinese stock market.   I doubt that the retail investors were taxi drivers and hairdressers. Rather, already-rich people who lost a lot, bailed out as fast as they could and are squealing loudly.  AVIC – someone blamed the drop on foreigners, then it turned out to be his own investors.  Yes, it's all about prestige and legitimacy for the Party. If it doesn't work and the bailout doesn’t work, then blame flows thither. Infighting, deep divisions within the leadership over what should be done.  Who’s in charge? Who's on top in Beijing right now?
Hour Three
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Joe Biden now seriously looking at running for president.  See Monica's column; "I believe he'll end up being the Democratic candidate " – an acceptable version of Bernie Sanders. Hilary still prevails, but Bernie is quickly inching up in poll numbers; HRC's are almost in free-fall.  Those who don't care for Mrs Clinton would go for Joe Biden in a flash.  He once was associated with hunters and unions.  Will progressives embrace him?  Probably yes: he's amiable and constantly commits gaffes, whereas no one much likes Mrs Clinton, nor does he have the Wall Street baggage ($300K for a speech at Goldman) she does.  He's palatable to whatever remains of the center of the Democratic party, as well as [being not threatening] to progressives. In the past, the White House urged Biden not to run, but last week there was a DoJ leak about Mrs Clinton. Would the WH welcome Biden's candidacy?
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (2 of 4) DoJ: potential criminal inquiry into what was on the Clinton server. There are a few months of emails missing around the tragedy of Benghazi. We have a Sidney Blumenthal e, but the Gowdy committee is waiting for a lot of data. The scale of this is getting worse; no longer possible to call it a right-wing conspiracy.  Nixon had the 18.5 minute gap; Mrs Clinton as a two-month gap.  Said hat the server has been "wiped clean" – she can destroy the server and her own e trail, there still exist all the msgs in other people's files.  Defcon 3. Will Pres Obama let his AG move on this? I think yes. If the WH is in process of carrying this out, Dem-on-Dem violence, then let the GOP stand back. If not, there'll be plenty of time for the Republicans to pile on. 
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Thanks to this sort of clumsy incompetence, Trump has been handed every Republican candidate’s dream: the chance to run against both the GOP leadership and the mainstream media.  http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/trump-republican-establishment-120713.html#ixzz3hFtjDpAL
. . . among those Republicans who are enthusiastic about voting next year, Trump holds a larger edge over his competition: 22% say they would back him for their party's nomination, compared with 14% who back Bush and 12% behind Walker.  http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/26/politics/cnn-poll-presidential-race/  (3 of 4)
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (4 of 4)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block A:  Charles Gasparino, Fox, in re:
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block B:  James Taranto, Wall Street Journal, in re: Silent Hill
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block C:  Sohrab Ahmari, WSJ London, in re:  Message from Battlefield Ukraine (1 of 2)
Wednesday  29 July 2015  / Hour 4, Block D:  Sohrab Ahmari, WSJ London, in re:  Message from Battlefield Ukraine (2 of 2)