The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 28 October 2015

Air Date: 
October 28, 2015

Photo, left: The Principality of Sealand, which wonderfully clarifies the Law of the Sea convention as it pertains to the several manufactured military constructions in the South China Sea that Beijing has recently cobbled together, including air bases, ports, and provocative and menacing installations. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, in force since 1994 and signed by the PRC but not the USA, states, "Artificial islands, installations and structures do not possess the status of islands. They have no territorial sea of their own, and their presence does not affect the delimitation of the territorial sea, the exclusive economic zone, or the continental shelf."
..  ..  ..
The Principality of Sealand is an unrecognised micronation, that claims Roughs Tower, an offshore platform located in the North Sea approximately 12 kilometres (7.5 mi) off the coast of Suffolk, England, as its territory.  Roughs Tower is a disused Maunsell Sea Fort, originally called HM Fort Roughs, built as an anti-aircraft defensive gun platform by the British during World War II.
Since 1967, the decommissioned HM Fort Roughs has been occupied by family and associates of Paddy Roy Bates, who claim that it is an independent sovereign state. Bates seized it from a group of pirate radio broadcasters in 1967 with the intention of setting up his own station at the site. He attempted to establish Sealand as a nation-state in 1975 with the writing of a national constitution and establishment of other national symbols.
While it has been described as the world's smallest country or nation, Sealand is not officially recognised by any established sovereign state in spite of Sealand's government's claim that it has been de facto recognised by the United Kingdom and Germany. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in force since 1994 states "Artificial islands, installations and structures do not possess the status of islands. They have no territorial sea of their own, and their presence does not affect the delimitation of the territorial sea, the exclusive economic zone or the continental shelf." Sealand was not grandfathered, and sits in British waters.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re:  Tuesday's freedom of navigation exercise in the South China Sea. Adm Harry Harris calls the bogus, man-made Chinese islands: The Great Wall of Sand.  The US sent the USS Arleigh Burke-class missile carrier  (with two kinds of surveillance aircraft to document any untoward reaction), to show freedom of navigation still exists, so the unelected tyrant of Beijing spa back that the US is aggressing on the territory that the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) has invented and then stolen. US needs to be there early and often.  US might also challenge the Libya claims in the Gulf of Sidra on an annual basis. Can use all kinds of ships and aircraft.  Might the Australians do the same kind of thing? How about Japanese, Vietnamese and Filipino ships? Not good to have this be a US-vs-China kind of thing.   China had a stampy-footy; have they worked out their frustration yet? In cyber?  Opening a second front in  the Senkakus? Maybe, although that'd direct Chinese resources. On the third hand, the PLA sees the Chinese fishing fleet as a navy auxiliary.  Might use civilian craft to block US passage.  The US has not signed the Law of the Sea treaty but is the chief guarantor of the pact, whereas China did sign and is crashing its way toward breaking its obligations.
". . .  But dispatching ships and planes is not enough. Washington must explain its reason for TK[impelling its challenges to unwarranted claims, and it must do so early and often. It must not let Beijing define what the U.S. Navy is doing, as it has done in the past.
Chinese officials are masters of the gotcha line. They will doubtless claim that the United States is “militarizing” South China Sea quarrels such as Subi Reef. Last month, during his state visit to Washington, President Xi Jinping pledged not to 'militarize' China’s artificial islands, even though engineers have built airfields long enough to accommodate combat aircraft of all varieties. Message: if the United States uses its fleet near the islands, it’s the bully."
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Scott Harold, political scientistRAND; in re:  sharp-edged, longstanding and, in the case of North Korea, profoundly threatening.   ROK  (south Korea) is conscripting 20,000 soldiers in the next two years. Faces demographic problem: replacement rate too low.  Now-Pres Pak sees the only way forward.   . . . US  has made clear that it expects its allies to do all possible it their own defense.   . . . South Koreans are also quite concerned abt China. for cause, although China is ROK's biggest trade partner. Were the DPRK to collapse, ROK would pray that China would help.  Big fear that idf Beijing isn't placated then it won't cooperate on North Korea. 
Gov't to conscript extra 20,000 soldiers in next 2 yrs  The government and the ruling party agreed Tuesday to conscript an additional 20,000 soldiers over the next two years, as part of efforts to steadily maintain its standing forces.

The government will spend an extra budget of 60 billion won ($53 million) to recruit an additional 10,000 officers in 2016 and another 10,000 in 2017.

"Currently, some 250,000 men are conscripted annually and there is enough facility to accommodate an extra 10,000," Rep. Kim Sung-chan of the ruling Saenuri Party told reporters following the meeting with government officials. 

The military reform comes after the country faced an increasing number of young men waiting to be conscripted amid worsening youth unemployment.

Some 52,000 men are currently waiting to fulfill their military duty, according to data from the Military Manpower Administration. 

The government and the Saenuri Party will also push forward with increasing the ratio of non-commissioned officers with specific technical expertise and skills, Kim said. 

The number is expected to be increased from the current 4,000 to 6,000 annually. 

All able-bodied South Korean men are required to complete nearly two years of military service as the country is technically at war with North Korea since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. (Yonhap)   South Korea to Raise Defense Spending to Deter Threat from North
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Charles Burton, professor, Brock University, in re:  The Fifth Plenum of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, currently meeting, to look at the thirteenth five-year plan. Most recent fiction of Chinese GDP is 6.9% growth. At resent, a real crisis, economy disintegrating; what can you do with a five-year plan?     Note Time magazine from 1939, USSR's Gosplan supposed to reach 1948, when the Moscow Kreml expected to reach the prosperity of the US.  And that mentality was transferred to Beijing.  Expect that Luo Yuen might go to the top of the central Military Commission; as things shake out, we'll see a bit better where things are headed. During the just-past Canadian election, foreign policy discussed but not much on China. New premier, Justin Trudeau, is part f  a group that has extensive connections in China, much investment. Exec Canada to welcome China more an more into its economy; concern for increasing Chinese economic influence in Britain and Canada, which might influence Canada's relations with he US. Canadian electoral commission may have found unwholesome financial connections between Trudeau and China – long story.   Did a rogue buy Canada, or is the is the Chinese Central Committee providing support – the Chinese interloper's daughter ran a youth agitprop organizing op in one province.  Trudeau says he welcomes all Chinese investment in all parts of Canada.  Creepy.   This scandal may have legs – "China buys Canada." "Canada may be for sale."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/relations-with-china-should-hinge-on-more-than-short-term-economic-value/article26967437/
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 1, Block D: Reggie Littlejohn, founder and president of Women's Rights Without Frontiers, in re: recall 1963 pop song, "Two Girls for Every Guy."  But Chinese one-child policy of Deng Xiaoping and his predecessor: about 116 males born for every hundred females – 34 to 50 million more males than females (how many millions of females infants have been murdered, usually by selective abortion?) "Gendercide" masks the hideous reality, but the Communist Party won't give up this policy because it keeps them so much in control. A professor writes that "low-income men" should be allowed to share wives. Commodifies women: first, they're murdered at or before birth, then they're thrown to service multiple males as sex slaves.  Thank you, defenders of Chinese Communist Wahhabists. 
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/10/25/china-economist-value-of-females-going-up-men-will-have-to-share-wives/
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Gordon Chang, in re:  Freedom of navigation operation (FONOPS) engendering a nasty Beijing reaction; they have a very expansive notion of their country m specifically think that the South China Sea is Chinese-owned water, while the rest of the world sees it as part of the global commons.  PLA Daily: "In face of US harassment, Beijing shd deal with Washington tactfully and prepare for the worst."  Problem is, Beijing blows up its off-ramps from war, whereas the US has spent 200 years defending global commons as free to be navigated by all the world.   Australia, Vietnam, Philippines, may all conduct FONOPS – a coalition that China has carefully created against itself.  Beijing has put an airstrip on two of its manufactured "islands" – a potential act of war.
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: South China Sea FONPS: looks like an escalation game with no happy ending.  The 45th US president in 2017 will have to deal with the Spratleys.  How's the Chinese leadership dealing with the tantrums around them; are they committed to it? They may have noticed that they've bit off more than they can chew; they thought the US would always be cowardly and never respond. China thinks that the world is impinging on its sovereignty; where as the rest of the world disagrees.  Were I Chinese and sure of myself, I'd do nothing but continue to build and militarize - heavy-duty with ports, barracks, ports.   However, the CCP needs to do something right now to bolster its legitimacy – which means they're not rational actors. Ceteris paribus, with no economic or political difficulties, then China would be able to focus on its island-building and military buildup over the long term, but now it may be forced to focus back on domestic issues and turn away from foreign adventurism.  The game is more about everyone else in the region than about the US.  If they get the Filipinos Malaysians, Vietnamese, to back down, then China can deal with the US later. 
. . . U.S. and Chinese military leaders will meet in Beijing in early November in an attempt to defuse rising tension in the South China Sea, unnamed diplomatic sources in Beijing said, The Asahi Shimbun reported Oct. 28. The talks will include Adm. Harry Harris, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, and high-ranking Chinese military leaders. The official purpose of the talks will be to discuss exchange activities and cooperation between the two militaries, the sources said, but the main agenda will be the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Before the U.S. Navy's move on Oct. 27 to challenge Chinese claims in the contested waters, China had made some moves to improve bilateral military ties. Read Stratfor's chronology on the unfolding maritime dispute in the South China Sea.
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; and Mona Charen, NRO, in re: measure of the performances at GOP Denver debate. . . .  CNBC entirely disgraced itself with [imbecilic] questions.
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 2, Block D:  James Taranto, WSJ, in re: Bush: lackluster performance, needed a good one.  Bush campaign may be ending; Rubio did well head to head with Bush, said Bush said he was patterning his campaign on McCain, while McCain never showed up for a bunch of votes in Senate, Ben Carson on his flat-tax plan: he equivocated; Becky Quick asked about it, he said, "closer to 15%." He's winging it on policy.  Story of the night is Ted Cruz and how he took on the moderators: "I can't believe you're asking this question! Why don't you ask substantive questions?"   Big win for Cruz, loss for moderators.   Christie: "Who cares about fantasy football when ISIS is attacking us?" Kasich: angry and frustrate.  Rand Paul: will return to being a Senator from Kentucky.  Carly Fiorina gave an effective defense of her tenure at HP and on economic policy in general.  Bush, Kasich, maybe Rand Paul, didn't do well; whereas Cruz seems to have won. 
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 3, Block A: David Drucker, Washington Examiner; &  and Bill Whalen, Hoover;  & John Fund, NRO, in re: . . . GOP fires up its base by attacking the media. Cruz did well. We're heading to a Trump collapse, Bush supporters to Cruz, Trump supporters to Rubio?   . . .  Knock-out moment of the night was Ted Cruz going after the moderators.   . . . this CNBC debate was supposed to be about economics and substance: not enough time for statements; Bush barely squeaked in; entire candidacies on flat tax and consumption tax, no time to discuss. Very badly presented.  Shd have been simple: "Why is the economy performing badly, and what would you do about it?"  Massive CNBC failure.  Three of Mr Bush's major donors are in despair tonight. Carson had a good night, didn't get tagged with hostile questions.  Cruz and Rubio, slow and steady, are the winners. Concept of a flat tax gaining traction?   Good for primary – GOP throws up its hands at the encyclopedic IRS code; not as useful in the general.  Gov Kasich of Ohio: began one answer with, "As I said on Morning Joe this morning . . " – a samrt-guy response he's running for VP.  He took off gloves, went after Trump and Carson. Check his opening line:  "Frontrunners have never been in govt nor done anything."
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: John Fund, NRO,  & Bill Whalen, Hoover; in re: Mark Zuckerberg deceiving?  . . .  Awful lot of Republicans do not want a dynastic campaign; Bush donor money flows to Rubio.  Rewrite the First Amendment to go after Citizens United. Cruz's is the best-funded campaign after Bush, will husband his money and go far.   A month from now, still a large field, will slow down pro tem around Thanksgiving. Big loser?  Rand Paul.  Also CNBC, the TV for the investor class,  pulled a boner that no one would invest in.
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Curt Niebur, Cassini program scientist at NASA Headquarters in Washington; in re: "Cassini truly has been a discovery machine for more than a decade," Niebuhr said. "This incredible plunge through the Enceladus plume is an amazing opportunity for NASA and its international partners on the Cassini mission to ask, 'Can an icy ocean world host the ingredients for life?'"
The last of Cassini's three final, close flybys of this icy moon, targeted at an altitude of 3,106 miles (4,999 kilometers) on Dec. 19, will examine how much heat is coming from the moon's interior. The closest-ever Enceladus flyby took place in October 2008 at an altitude of 16 miles (25 kilometers). Cassini flew closer to the moon's icy surface during that encounter, but passed through the plume at a much higher altitude than it will during the Oct. 28 flyby.
The Cassini-Huygens mission is a cooperative project of NASA, ESA (European Space Agency) and the Italian Space Agency. JPL manages the mission for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington.
An online toolkit for all three final Enceladus flybys is available at:
http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/finalflybys    For more information about Cassini, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/cassini
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: Marcus Weisgerber, Defense One Global business reporter,  in re:  Northrop Grumman to Build Air Force Bomber — But Don't Expect to See It Soon  After years of internal Pentagon fighting to keep the project alive, the air service reveals a builder, but little else.
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 4, Block A:  Ann Marlowe, Hudson, in re: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/uk-europe-migrants-italy-libya-idUKKCN0SM2AF20151028 (1 of 2)
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 4, Block B: Ann Marlowe, Hudson, in re: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/28/uk-europe-migrants-italy-libya-idUKKCN0SM2AF20151028 (2 of 2)
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Early Apollo rover prototype sold for scrap  An early test prototype of the Apollo lunar rovers, apparently parked in an Alabama backyard for decades, was sold for scrap and lost when the estate of its owner was liquidated.  “It has come to the attention of the Marshall Space Flight Center historian that you may be in the possession of a prototype of a Lunar Roving Vehicle,” NASA wrote to the buggy’s owner in an August 2014 letter requesting that the LRV be turned over. “Returning the vehicle to the Marshall Space Flight Center would allow MSFC to restore [it] so it might be used for historical and educational purposes.” Unfortunately, the letter arrived too late. “Upon contacting the current owner,” NASA’s Office of the Inspector General reported in December, “we learned the LRV had been sold for scrap after [redacted] had passed away.”
Wednesday   28 October 2015  / Hour 4, Block D:  John Schwartz, NYT, in re:  Persian Gulf May Be Too Hot for Humans by 2100, Study Finds  Areas of the Persian Gulf could be hit by waves of heat and humidity so severe that simply being outside for several hours could threaten human life, a study says.