Wednesday 22 June 2016
Photo, left:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast.
Hour One
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re:
. . . The loss of confidence of Chinese officials in the Communist Party and their sense the Party will fail in about two years. . . . The Chinese Communist Party is an antique – left over from a Nineteenth-Century notion of how to improve the world. It has an army, an navy, and air force – and it doesn't work. At the top, Xi Jinping, calling himself Commander-in-chief. He, and his lieutenants in the Standing Committee, know it isn't working -- or do they?
— Everyone in China lies to everyone else; by the time you get to the top, that’s a lot of lying. I was in China last winter, met with a distinguished, rather intensely-intellectual fellow who had reason to trust me privately. Once we were in private, he began with, “What the hell will we do? We’re at a dead end, but if our first step is wrong, we could fall into enormous violence.”
—I reported that in Taiwan the dictatorship began to be abolished in 1987; by 2016, we’ve had an election in Taiwan that’s produced a country properly put together and homogenous enough to be a country.
—He replied: We don't have enough time!
—How much time do you have? (This guy works right at the center!)
—“Oh. maybe two years” [before the whole, broken system begins really to malfunction]. I was thunderstruck.
The CCP problem is that there’s no off-ramp. Economics, politics, social policy – no forward progress and a lot of regression
GGC: Everyone knows what has to be done, but people at the top probably refuse change. AW: I’m not at all sure that everybody knows what to do.
If you look at American secondary, even primary, schools (even ignoring colleges entirely), the numbers of Chinese now applying is extraordinary; it can only mean that they're trying to get out. Betting on disturbances in the future. Never seen so many trying to break down the door.
One trillion dollars of capital flight last year; this year: bank payment data show a huge outflow. They want to get their children out, and to get out themselves. In main US cities, huge numbers of Chinese people.
What’s Plan B? An exodus?
That’s not a plan that works for 1.3 billion people, My friend who's a director of a small, chi-chi girls’s school in the Northeast, reports that daily, Chinese families arrive, demanding, “How much do I have to pay to get my daughter in now? Please show me around today.”
A house here is cheaper than a house in China—and you can breathe the air!
The general sense there is that things are beginning to fall apart. My dear wife has just been cruising on a beautiful lake near a dam – but the lake at that section has collected a mile of garbage. Another massive failure of central planning.
Two years. Tick-tick-tick.
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Joseph Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, in re: China invested $300 bil in Latin America,, of which about $60 bil went to Venezuela. Under the late Hugo Chavez, who had a lot of influence regionally, China expanded its connections Venezuela has been paying back in oil, and in any case had heavily-subsidized prices. It has one of the most precarious economic positions in the world. Over the last decade, China has invested in almost every country in the region, maybe ten-fold of $300 bil. The Bolivarian Alliance — Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela – is an anti-American alliance. China’s were political, not economically-based, investments. Is China buying up a lot of South American businesses? Yes – esp in Sao Paulo and Santiago de Chile. Pay attention to Ecuador: a smaller version of Venezuela, where China owns a good chunk of its foreign debt, as the govt ceded lots of territory to repay debt. In the US: buying heavily in Detroit, San Francisco and New York. Going back to 2015, Maduro’s last trips to China to beg for extensions and more funds have been denied. China asked for a plan to solve this, but there exists none – now, having five-day weekends, limits on electricity and food. A real humanitarian crisis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/in-china-venezuela-def...
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Sadanand Dhume, WSJ, in re: . . . India must have relations with Iran because it has no right of passage through Pakistan and to reach Central Asia and other nations, it has to transit Iran. . . . The idea of a strong foreign policy enjoys a strong consensus in India; at he same time, wishes to be much ore involved with the US, incl in the South China Sea. These guys are not worried about offending Beijing.
It’s Amateur Hour in Narendra Modi’s India; India’s Newfound Confidence ; Modi’s Global Makeover (1 of 2)
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Sadanand Dhume, WSJ, in re: In the end, they decided the ___ was too outspoken; my advice was that it's better for India to have a respected central bank governor than someone who doesn't irritate you but isn’t independent. But they chose a different route. . . . This could have negative implications for foreign investment – true; tossed away for a petty political reason. What we haven’t seen is a full-throated economic boom. Modi is sort of a Bollywood-style star. . . . Mrs Clinton is a known quantity; Trump is a wild card and worrisome. It’s Amateur Hour in Narendra Modi’s India; India’s Newfound Confidence ; Modi’s Global Makeover (2 of 2)
Hour Two
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Chris Harmer, senior military analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in re: the latest on the South China and East China Seas . Reuters: US warns China about response to Hague Court ruling. Supercarriers Reagan and Stennis are in the Philippines Sea, next door to the South China Sea. . . . The arc we’re on results in war unless one side backs down. . . . Were there conflict in the South China Sea, would we park the carriers that close? Because they're so expensive what would we sacrifice a nuclear-powered carrier for? – we’ll try not to put them in harm’s way, just close enough to have influence. The mass of Chinese shipbuilding so fast that they'll soon have so many surface ship and subs an d land-based aircraft that China can have dominance. The US advantage is dwindling day by day, New Aegis-class, Arleigh-Burke class, are concentrated in the Med(?); never been this thin in the South west Pacific for 75 years. US can still create localized supremacy. Each battle group has fifty strike fighters . . . but we cannot sustain two carriers there indefinitely, not even for a short time, China can wait us out, It's several hors for China to get there, but several weeks for us from San Diego. . . . 156 Tomahawk missile. SSGNs are unltd and stealthy; but they’re low-density/high-demand assets. Everybody wants ‘em. . . .
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Joshua Stanton of the OneFreeKorea blog, in re: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/kim-jong-un-launches-massive-spy-crackdown-within-north-korea-1566252 ; http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/21/asia/north-korea-missile/
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Mike Davis, in re: Hong Kong booksellers. Kidnapped by China A bookseller describes eight months in Beijing’s illegal custody. Lam Wing Kee disappeared, with four colleagues in Mighty Current, a publishing house, sold books at Causeway Books; Beijing wanted the books not available because Mainlanders bought them and returned home with some truth about the disaster in China.
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Josh Rogin, Washington Post, in re: The story is tha the US is making progress against IS. Generals have one goal: that he fragile progress the US and coalition are making is not wasted. Air control, Apache helos, special operation forces; whenever they ask for essential supplies, the White House sandbags them. General s say that to carry out their obligatory mission they need at least hundreds more troops. If you put Americans in harm’s way, you must give them all the force protection they need to give them the best chance of making out it out alive, Gen Allen: when troops arrive we're force td to use only leaders and back them up with contractors, in order to change the numbers. Which is horrendously dangerous.
After the first casualty, when a Sp Ops was killed in a raid near Erbil, the general realized that the US is not providing basis resources in Iraq.
WH officials: the Iraqi political system is only so cab[able of receiving US help; to much would pressure the fragile Iraqi system Of course, when the US doesn’t, Iraqi s immediately turn to IRGC, which is happy to step in. IRGC is a long-term killer of Americans. “More of everything is not a strategy” – quotation from Derek Scholet (sp?), a White House minion. Good grief — if you undersupply the army there, Americans die for no reason and fail in their mission. There’s a huge gap between what Obama has promised and what he’s provided. The Army generals see this; so does Baghdad; so does Teheran.
Obama’s generals want more U.S. troops in Iraq But they haven’t made a formal request because of pressure from their superiors.
Hour Three
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Concerning Mr Trump: . . . Need fundraising (not Manafort’s skill); need a pro with what used to be called a Rolodex. Urgently need a communications director. . . . Reagan had 200 policy advisors! Many competent people are waiting right now to lend a hand; will the candidate accept?
Sanders Says Doesn’t Appear He’ll Be Democratic Nominee bloom.bg/28O3hvZ
Hillary Clinton will outline her plans to stimulate U.S. economic growth today bloom.bg/28N4B65 pic.twitter.com/7ufmg9xBl6
This will be HRC's third stop in Ohio in two weeks. Trump hasn't been back since the primary. twitter.com/albamonica/sta… / Monica Alba @albamonica
Hillary Clinton will campaign with Elizabeth Warren on Monday in Cincinnati, per @kwelkernbc
Elizabeth Warren to Campaign With Hillary Clinton Monday in Ohio bloom.bg/28MNHzT
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/284395-dem-rep-kaine-a-great-choice-for-vp
Clinton Tells House Democrats She’ll Help Try to Win Majority bloom.bg/28Psz1o
Rubio Warns of Trump, Clinton Presidencies In Statement on Run bloom.bg/28PrvKB
Clinton Campaign Says Trump Speech Full of ‘Conspiracy Theories’ bloom.bg/28O3K1c
Fundraising appeal from Don Trump Jr: pic.twitter.com/5B4ILqje0E
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/284464-trump-camp-weve-raised-2m-in-12-hours (1 of 4)
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/284367-trumps-campaign-shows-hints-of-change
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (2 of 4)
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (3 of 4)
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (4 of 4)
Hour Four
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Joseph Sternberg, Editorial-Page Editor of the WSJ's European edition; in re: In 'Brexit' Vote, David Cameron Faces Problem of His Own Making, . . . Boris Johnson, a Leave leader, photographed kissing a fish.
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: John Fund, NRO, in re: Brexit. http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436949/brexit-vote-choose-sovereignty-bureaucracy
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief, in re: Obama Administration Has History of Scrubbing Allah from Transcripts
Israel to Open Mission at NATO HQ, Boost Cooperation Israel will open a mission at NATO headquarters in Brussels as part of efforts to boost cooperation with the US-led alliance to counter extremist violence, top officials said Tuesday. (1 of 2)
Wednesday 22 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief, in re: Obama Administration Has History of Scrubbing Allah from Transcripts
Israel to Open Mission at NATO HQ, Boost Cooperation Israel will open a mission at NATO headquarters in Brussels as part of efforts to boost cooperation with the US-led alliance to counter extremist violence, top officials said Tuesday. (2 of 2)