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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Michael Auslin, AEI, and author, “The Logic of Trump’s Foreign Policy.” 
 
Hour One
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in re:http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/22/tillerson-affirms-importance-of-constructive-us-china-ties.html
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 1, Block B:   Anders Corr, principal of Corr Analytics Inc. & publisher of the Journal of Political Risk; professor of International Relations in the Department of History at the University of Pennsylvania, in Forbes.com; in re:  China trying to mine $100 billion in copper from Afghanistan from under a 5,000-year-old Buddhist holy site being excavated by [UNESCO?]; under attack by Taliban; now “negotiating” with them, inviting them to Beijing. Trying to keep Taliban from connecting too closely with Uyghurs.  Uzbekistan refuses to let Chinese trains through in order to get the copper out.  China empowers Taliban by dealing with them; eke Russia, Iran, Pakistan – all have backchannel comms with Taliban.
Note that anyone who shows resistance to Beijing is called a terrorist, including HH the Dalai Lama.    http://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/2017/02/21/sanction-china-for-its-support-of-taliban-terrorists/#69cfdd4e16b7
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 1, Block C: Charles Ortel, managing director of research firm Newport Value Partners, in re: Consumers internationally are hobbled by huge debt; China has comparatively few consumers: a very small internal market.  Debt overhang, Europe blowing up, Chinese confrontation – you’d have to be a brave investor to put money into China right now.  Further, might never be able to get your money back out . . . Bloomberg reports that China has a $9 trilllion debt, and we don't know what the contingent liabilities are.   . . . We’re used to thinking of a strong China; need to consider the meaning/ramifications of a weak China.  . .  As the EU disintegrates, will create demand for dollars, strengthen the dollar.  Dangerous for China: the one thing that could take the Chinese economy down. https://www.wsj.com/articles/wary-global-investors-hold-back-on-china-1487703081
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 1, Block D:  Michael Auslin, in re:  Trump policies in East Asia; his status quo ante policies.   . . . As China took over islands, arrogating a million square miles of sea, the Obama Administration did nothing. Did nothing in Freedom of Navigation operations till very late in the game. Is it too late?  Now, even the Trump Administration says it's not FON, just standard practice. This, too, kowtows to Beijing’s sensibilities. 
The Logic of Trump’s Foreign Policy  The basic contours of a consistent approach are beginning to take shape.  Amid the seeming disarray of President Trump ’s foreign policy, critics seem unable to make up their minds: Either Mr. Trump is upending America’s traditional postwar priorities, such as by denigrating NATO, or he is easily accommodating conventional wisdom, such as by accepting the “One China” policy. Which is it?
These critiques miss the logical thread that ties together Mr. Trump’s actions. Although it is too early to expect the president’s foreign policy to be fully fleshed out, especially after the abrupt resignation of Mike Flynn as national security adviser, the White House appears to be guided by a consistent approach.
On foreign issues that directly affect domestic concerns, Mr. Trump pursues radical change. But on matters that are truly foreign, he is willing to adopt a traditional stance. What looks like inconsistency is actually an instinct deeply grounded in his worldview. This explains the president’s withdrawal from . . 
 
Hour Two
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 2, Block A:  James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re: China claims land it doesn't own; is aggressively intimidating its neighbors.  Ignores the Law of the Sea, claims it owns 80-90% of the South China Sea.  Under Chinese strictures, the Carl Vinson would have to ask permission to sail in international waters.  Also, China bans surveillance aircraft flights, or underwater surveys.  Google 1992 Law of the Sea; see that China proclaims that its own domestic law rules nearby oceans. Freedom of the sea is universal.  If the seafaring world allows China to do this, Russia could claim the Baltic and Black Seas and parts of the Arctic Ocean; every nation could claim vast swaths of ocean.  A new and unhealthy world. 
https://www.stripes.com/news/chinese-legal-draft-could-pose-challenge-for-navy-in-south-china-sea-1.454417
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-southchinasea-exclusive-idUSKBN161029
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 2, Block B:  Bruce Klingner, senior research Fellow, Northeast Asia at The Heritage Foundation, in re: Barney Fyfe trying to act like Sherlock Holmes. Now maybe ten North Koreans involved; Malaysia is sort of overwhelmed with a complicated murder scene.  Now, also an attempted break-in at the mortuary where Kim Jong-nam’s body is being held for autopsy over objections of DPRK.
Diplomat sought in killing of Kim Jong Un’s half brother  Malaysian police are searching for a North Korean diplomat and an airline employee in the public assassination. In the latest twist in the plot, an attempted break-in was reported at the hospital morgue where Kim Jong Nam's is being held against North Korea's wishes.
. . . two more people, a senior official in the North Korean Embassy and someone linked to the North Korean airline, were identified Feb. 22 as suspects in the murder of Kim Jong Nam, Malaysian police said, Reuters reported. Both suspects remain in Malaysia and were brought in for questioning. Kim, the brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was assassinated Feb. 13 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport. 
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2017/02/103_224432.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/21/asia/kim-jong-nam-death-investigation/
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/21/beijing-banned-north-korean-coal-and-traders-are-scrambling.html
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 2, Block C:  Devin Nunes  (CA-22), Chairman, House Select Intelligence Committee, in re:  Lajes; Chinese cyber ; Russian cyber. China has three fortified areas in the South China Sea such that they have military superiority in the region
Lajes: China is about to control the Azores off Portugal as the Pentagon insists on relinquishing Lajes air field to China; with Sao Tome, these give China global domination. 
Russia: the Arctic passage; Russia rebuilt the old Pacific fleet. Long term, China will be dominant, Putin has successfully maneuvered around three US presidents.   . . . Russia and China working together would pose challenges that the US would have difficulty in countering.  However, Russia and China have at least centuries of enmity, so any such alliance is a marriage of convenience.
Under Trump, does the IC understand Lajes, and how China is extending power across the globe? . . . If you control the Azores, you control the entire North Atlantic. And now we have Russian subs off the US East Coast.    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-intelligence-committee-chairman-discus...
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 2, Block D:  Devin Nunes  (CA-22), Chairman, House Select Intelligence Committee, in re:  Tax reform bill in Ways and Means right now. Will awaken American growth and strengthen relations with the UK and Japan.  It's about national security: almost all countries have gone to a transparent system; tax imports, not exports.  We’re trying to do the same thing here. Rid us of accrual accounting and special deals out of income tax code; do border adjustment. 
Foreign companies don't like this because it'll make it better to do bz in the US. Surprisingly, big-box retailers also oppose because they won’t be able to deduct imports.  Odd because as we move in to 3-4% growth, consumers will be able to buy more of their goods.  We’ll leapfrog all he other countries n the planet. Get us out of this dysfunctional WTO regime.
 
Hour Three
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 3, Block A: Lara M. Brown, Associate Professor & Interim Director, Graduate School of Political Management, George Washington University; and Salena Zito, CNN & The Washington Examiner; in re: . . . for Democrats to succeed, will have to have a larger tent, welcome pro-life and pro-gun members. 
 GOP Townhall Face-off vs the DNG Going Hard Left. @SalenaZito @LaraMBrownPHD.   Rep. Dave Brat, R-7th, took pointed questions on health care, President Donald Trump and many other topics for an hour Tuesday night at his first town hall since the November election.
“I don’t mind boisterous. I’m having fun!” Brat proclaimed toward the end of his town hall, in which he was repeatedly interrupted.
A large group of protesters gathered outside while the crowd inside the banquet room at Blackstone Herb Cottage squawked and shouted as Brat took question after question, read by town Mayor William D. Coleburn. The restaurant said there were 200 seats in the banquet room for the town hall.
Coleburn walked into the restaurant after the town hall and joked that it would make his town’s next budget meeting easy, by comparison. The town is in Nottoway County, on the southern edge of Brat’s 7th Congressional District. Nottoway was one of three counties added to the 7th in redistricting.
The town hall followed several weeks of criticism from liberal constituents in Brat’s district that he wasn’t having a town hall in the district — and they wanted to let him have it about their fears of the Trump administration. Brat said he’s held more than 500 meetings in the past few years and bristled at the notion that he wasn’t accessible. In his opening remarks, he asked for a civil discourse and said his motto is never to put people down.   http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/rep-brat-jeere...
A new NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll finds that 66% of Americans are worried that the United States will become engaged in a major war in the next four years while 33% are not worried. Other interesting findings:
•       43% of Americans approve of the job President Trump is doing, 54% disapprove
•       31% are angry about the way the federal government is working, 42% are dissatisfied but not angry, 18% are satisfied but not enthusiastic and 7% are enthusiastic about the way the government is working
•       62% think the U.S. should take into account the interests of its allies even if it means making compromises with them, 34% think the U.S. should follow its own national interests even when its allies strongly disagree
•       80% said being a member of NATO is good for the United States, 15% said being a member is bad for the U.S.
•       50% approve of President Trump’s executive order temporarily banning citizens from seven predominantly Muslim countries from entering the U.S. and 47% disapprove
•       60% have confidence in the judicial system, 39% said they don’t have confidence
•       52% have a favorable view of the Affordable Care Act and 45% have an unfavorable view
http://www.nbcnews.com/feature/data-points/poll-majority-americans-worri...
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 3, Block B:  Lara M. Brown, Associate Professor & Interim Director, Graduate School of Political Management, George Washington University; and Salena Zito, New York Daily News (2 of 2)
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 3, Block C:  Aaron Klein, Investigative Radio host & Jerusalem bureau chief and senior investigative reporter for Breitbart News Network;  in re:  Call for Worldwide Conference Against Rising Anti-Semitism. @AaronKleinShow.   “Malcolm Hoenlein, CEO of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, called on Tuesday for an international conference on anti-Semitism, saying the ‘intensifying challenge’ of rising anti-Jewish incidents around the world required global mobilization…” http://www.timesofisrael.com/us-jewish-leader-urges-world-conference-to-fight-anti-semitism/
. . .  My interpretation of how Israelis hear this . . .  as a journalist, am curious; people in the Trump administration whom I’ve known for a long time are accused of anti-Semitism yet these are the least anti-Jewish people and he most pro-Jewish administration in a very long while. The sole fellow, Steven Goldstein, who runs the Ann Frank Center has a past of left political activism.   BDS campaign.  People attacking Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn; antedates President Trump.
Israeli military court in Jaffa, in an emotional trial, jails an IDF soldier for ostensibly shooting a Palestinian terrorist who’d already been subdued and was lying on the ground.    Abdul Fatah had just stabbed two Israeli soldiers; before that, someone had just yelled, “Be careful! He has a bomb!” – and Fatah was wearing a heavy jacket on a warm day.  Civilians were all in short sleeves. All this in Hebron, an extremely fraught environment these days.
Hamas defecting to ISIS; senior members of military wing. The was a strike in Sinai, Hamas claims it was Israeli.  N case so, suggests Egyptian-Israeli coordination. IS holds that Hamas has sold out by allowing the Israeli state to exist; yet the two groups do bz in weapons smuggling. Further, Egypt and Hamas cooperate sometimes as both are threatened by IS.   
With Egyptian influence, we may even see a revision of the Hamas Charter to drop reference to the Muslim Brotherhood.
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 3, Block D:  Aaron Klein, Investigative Radio host & Jerusalem bureau chief and senior investigative reporter for Breitbart News Network; in re: Al Q attacking Daraa in southern Syria, vs Iran; ISIS fighting and getting territory. Hizbullah gaining territory.  Jordan is gravely concerned.  Exponentially increases cooperation Amman-Jerusalem. Kingdom clamping down on radical mosques.. . . The gathering power of IS to radicalize the entire region around Israel.   (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 4, Block A:  Larry Johnson, NoQuarter, in re: Shallow State Resigns from Trump’s CIA. @LarryMJohnson.   “Attracting some attention over the last few days is an op-ed penned by one Edward ‘Ned’ Price, who declares that he resigned from the CIA because he just could not bear the thought of working under a President Donald Trump. I have heard from a knowledgeable friend that Price’s claims about his time at CIA and, more recently, the National Security Council, are true…” https://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/79608/curious-resignation-partisan-cia-officer/
. . . “…Trump’s actions in office have been even more disturbing. His visit to CIA headquarters on his first full day in office, an overture designed to repair relations, was undone by his ego and bluster. Standing in front of a memorial to the CIA’s fallen officers, he seemed to be addressing the cameras and reporters in the room, rather than the agency personnel in front of them, bragging about his inauguration crowd the previous day. Whether delusional or deceitful, these were not the remarks many of my colleagues and I wanted to hear from our new commander in chief. I couldn’t help but reflect on the stark contrast between the bombast of the new president and the quiet dedication of a mentor — a courageous, steadfast professional — who is memorialized on that wall. I know others at CIA felt similarly. . . .” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-didnt-think-id-ever-leave-the-cia-but-because-of-trump-i-quit/2017/02/20/fd7aac3e-f456-11e6-b9c9-e83fce42fb61_story.html?utm_term=.adb2d9e6d89f
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 4, Block B:  Eric Katz, GovernmentExecutive.com, in re: ICE is “working on implementing a hiring plan” for its 10,000 new agents, the agency said. Kelly directed ICE and Customs and Border Protection to “immediately begin hiring,” subject to available resources. Border Patrol will hire 5,000 agents and 500 air and marine officers. Both agencies will also hire additional mission support and legal personnel to assist the new staff and help with policy implementation. Kelly directed DHS human capital leadership -- including the undersecretary for management, chief financial officer and chief human capital officer -- to implement the hiring surge.
Shawn Moran, vice president of the National Border Patrol Council, generally praised the implementation memos, but said there are still unanswered questions on the hiring provisions. He expressed concern about where the hiring and recruiting would take place, and whether there would be a “mad rush” to fill positions as seen when President George W. Bush attempted to quickly double the size of Border Patrol. He encouraged Border Patrol leadership to conduct the hiring in a “smart manner,” and said he did not expect the onboarding to happen overnight.
“We’re looking at a multi-year phase in,” Moran said. He emphasized the importance of properly training the new employees; in his memos, Kelly said the hiring must ensure “consistency in training and standards.” The DHS secretary also said it should take place “expeditiously….”  http://www.govexec.com/management/2017/02/how-trump-will-take-shackles-d...
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 4, Block C: Anatoly Zak, russianspaceweb.com, in re: Will Russia and Space X Resupply ISS? David Livingston, Spaceshow.com Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com  “…The Progress MS-05 is expected to deliver nearly 2.5 tons of supplies to the ISS, including propellant, pressurized gas, an Orlan-MKS spacesuit, scientific equipment, containers with food and water, consumable supplies and personal packages for the crew.
The launch of the Progress MS-05 mission was originally planned for Oct. 16, 2016, and by the end of 2016, it was postponed from February 1 to Feb. 21, 2017, 17:11 Moscow Time, in the wake of the Progress MS-04 accident. The extra time was used to return third stages of already assembled vehicles to the manufacturing plant for additional inspections of RD-0110 engines, which were suspected to be culprits in the loss of Progress MS-04. The engine on the third stage of the Soyuz U vehicle assigned for the Progress MS-05 mission was replaced.
With the root cause of the December 1, 2017, failure never fully understood, the Soyuz-U rocket for the Progress MS-05 mission and all subsequent launchers carrying Soyuz and Progress spacecraft were retrofitted with onboard cameras capable of transmitting live images during the ascent to orbit. The cameras were installed in the exterior of the intertank compartment of the third stage. The resulting video could help to understand the rocket's behavior during the flight.
The launch of Progress MS-05 was to be ensured for 139.8 million rubles.
In January 2017, new delays were expected to push the launch date from February 1 to March 1, until the liftoff window was finally set for February 22, 2017….”  http://www.russianspaceweb.com/progress-ms-05.html
Wednesday 22 February 2017 / Hour 4, Block D:   Anatoly Zak, russianspaceweb.com (2 of 2)