The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 20 July 2016

Air Date: 
July 20, 2016

Photo, left: 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:  Anders Corr, principal of Corr Analytics Inc.; Forbes.Com;  and publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, in re:  For disturbing the SCS, China owes $177 billion:  5bil in envtl damages – 48 sq mi of envtl damage, at 1.97mil/half-acre (what the US paid the Philippines recently for coral damage elsewhere) –China paved over coral to put in military runway.  Would a US court award the funds to the Philippines from Chinese money parked overseas?  How about ownership of the Waldorf Astoria (which was just bought by a Chinese consortium)? Or Chinese state banks in the US?   These corporations say they're entitled to sovereign immunity as being state-owned entities. However, if the Philippines decided to take a Chinese bank there in partial recompense, it can't be said that it's not Chinese govt-owned.  [Can't have it both ways.]  Incl Vietnam, Brunei, and others, it’ll become a high multiple of $177bil. A Filipino group took me out to Scarborough Shoal on Filipino independence day, 12 June.  Two Chinese cutter as and three other boats tried to force us to leave, nearly rammed us; two swimmers carried h Philippine flag to the shoal while Chinese speedboats took propellers much too dangerously close to swimmers and nearly cut them into pieces. The rock is the size of a couple of couches, then there are 40 acres of a submerged ring, then a rich fishing ground.  This is within Philippine exclusive economic zone, have terrified Filipinos, whose income is cut by two-thirds.
Including Scarborogh Shoal rent:  was $1.8 billion from 2012 to 2016.  / http://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/2016/07/15/the-philippines-should...   ;  http://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/2016/07/15/the-philippines-should...
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Cleo Paskal, visiting Trudeau Fellow, University of Montreal, and associate Fellow, Chatham House, in re: Deployment of major war-fighting tanks to Ladakh, on India-China border.  Chinese show up sometimes and invade a few miles. Now Modi is putting tanks along the border.  This is ne Indian govt from the last several decades; takes natl sec seriously and is glad to show it.  It's not just heat long, unresolved border; also Pakistan, where China has funded terrorism into India, and the South China Sea, where China obviously has been aggressive.   Modi has sent 100-plus tanks.   And China presses on not just with borderline confrontation, but there’s a terrorist sitting in Pakistan that India got he Security Council to sanction – and China got Pakistan to ignore that even as the man is calling for jihad in Kashmir. 
Finally, someone in New Delhi who no longer cowers in front of the Chinese; taking a strong position works Other countries may stop being afraid and follow suit.  Nehru gave India’s Security Council seat to China; that was one of the first mad concessions.  Now, demands that China behave in an adult manner and as a real state.  Tanks began moving months ago, so this is not simply a response to the Hague decision.  Nuclear Suppliers Group was forced by China not to sell to India – which was a very big matter to India.  China helps jihadists in Kashmir with logistical support. The guys who attacked Mumbai hotels in 2008 were carrying Chinese-made weapons, by Norinco.
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-positions-tanks-in-eastern-ladakh-t...
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/china-calls-for-proper-settlement-of-kash...
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Thomas Goltz, peripatetic reporter; author of books on Central Asia; specialist in Middle East and Central Asia; in re:  Report from Istanbul, in some detail (1 of 2)
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Thomas Goltz, peripatetic reporter; author of books on Central Asia; specialist in Middle East and Central Asia; in re:  Report from Istanbul, in some detail (2 of 2)
 
Hour Two
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Rita Cosby, WABC Senior Political Director; in re:  When Ted Cruz first entered he got much applause and gave a good speech; he then tiptoed up to endorsing Trump, but never actually did.  Recall 1964 Cow Palace; and 1968, Mayor Daley.  Rubio spoke by video and also did not endorse Trump, basically attacked Hilary Clinton.
James Holmes, former naval officer and visiting Fellow in Asia-Pacific studies at the University of Georgia, in re:   US CNO, Adm Richardson, said that the USN would continue to operate as normal, incl in South China Sea. Other navies that treasure the ability to navigate must also sail there to prevent China from defying the Court and making a sea-grab.  Seems to be a shift in tone on the part of the CNO, who hitherto has soft-pedalled US-China relations. Since China seems to be trying to lock legitimate air and sea transit, this is important.  Hague Tribunal said the Nine-Dash Line is bunk – an artificial construct claiming that Chinese fishermen had been there centuries ago. As for the islands: China may try to change the status of islands, but we need to prevent them from changing the legal status of the rocks and islands.  “Those who are aggressors love peace – want to be able to steal in tranquillity.”  Adm Richardson is genuinely beloved: a tech expert, nuclear officer, and a big fan of strategy and history.  His forbearance in China avoided a rash response to astounding Chinese rudeness.   / http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-usa-idUSKCN1000PD  ; http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/19/world/asia/china-sea-air-patrols.html?...
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Bob Collins, 37-year veteran advisor to the Department of Defense and author of the just-released, Pyongyang Republic: North Korea's Capital of Human Rights Denial, in re: Air bases in South Korea are the North’s most important targets as they [house] aircraft that can swiftly strike the north. What DPRK is good at is telegraphing its punches – shelling an island, e.g., when they killed ROK citizens.  During the Cold War, both the US and Soviets would transmit numbers to be read by agents with a code book On 24 June and again last Tuesday DPRK sent out numbers on television, reverting to Cold War.  It was a bluff intended to intimidate: South Korean society is much ore sophisticated now than decades ago, and there are much more sophisticated ways to send msgs than via TV.  Even though it's bluff, they do what they say and eventually there will be  the sting.  US as an ally needs to make public statements to give South Korean populace confidence in the alliance.  Pres Pak and the US administration have very good relatins irrespective of small shifts; the working relationship is solid. 
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/north-korea/north-korea-says-it-tested-pre-e...   ;  http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36836367
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Michael Auslin, AEI, in re:  China Takes Asia Back to the 1930s - WSJ from Michael Auslin’s Tweet  /   In 1933, Japan walked out of the League of Nations after being condemned for invading Manchuria. This act of defiance dealt a blow to liberal internationalists’ hopes that global cooperation could lead to a peaceful resolution of the Asian crisis. It also ended decades of Japanese globalization during the Meiji and Taisho periods and set Tokyo on a path of confrontation with Western powers. The ultimate result was the Pacific War from 1937-45.
Could the same thing happen today with China? Beijing’s reaction to last week’s ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration recalls Tokyo’s rejection of the League’s attempt to rein in great-power competition 85 years ago.
The Philippines brought the arbitration case in 2013 against China’s sweeping claims to the South China Sea. But Beijing refused to recognize the court’s jurisdiction or take part in the proceedings. That was a mistake.
While Beijing had a right under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to opt out of a case on ownership of land features, this case concerned the maritime rights generated by those features. The decision is binding according to the treaty that China is party to.
Beijing has always said that its claimed holdings in the South China Sea were islands, and thus entitled to exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and various construction and administrative rights. The court found no merit in Beijing’s assertions. Instead it ruled that all land formations were simply rocks or “low tide elevations.”   (1 of 2)   http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-asia-back-to-the-1930s-1469032195
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Michael Auslin, AEI, in re:  China Takes Asia Back to the 1930s - WSJ from Michael Auslin’s Tweet  /   In 1933, Japan walked out of the League of Nations after being condemned for invading Manchuria. This act of defiance dealt a blow to liberal internationalists’ hopes that global cooperation could lead to a peaceful resolution of the Asian crisis. It also ended decades of Japanese globalization during the Meiji and Taisho periods and set Tokyo on a path of confrontation with Western powers. The ultimate result was the Pacific War from 1937-45.
Could the same thing happen today with China? Beijing’s reaction to last week’s ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration recalls Tokyo’s rejection of the League’s attempt to rein in great-power competition 85 years ago.
The Philippines brought the arbitration case in 2013 against China’s sweeping claims to the South China Sea. But Beijing refused to recognize the court’s jurisdiction or take part in the proceedings. That was a mistake.
While Beijing had a right under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to opt out of a case on ownership of land features, this case concerned the maritime rights generated by those features. The decision is binding according to the treaty that China is party to.
Beijing has always said that its claimed holdings in the South China Sea were islands, and thus entitled to exclusive economic zones (EEZ) and various construction and administrative rights. The court found no merit in Beijing’s assertions. Instead it ruled that all land formations were simply rocks or “low tide elevations.”  (2 of 2)  http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-takes-asia-back-to-the-1930s-146903219...
 
Hour Three
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Mary Kissel, WSJ editorial board and OpinionJournal.com, in re: in Cleveland, the GOP convention: security whisked Mrs Cruz – Heidi – as she was physically accosted and threatened, out to safety after her husband declined to endorse Trump, told people to “vote your conscience in November.” Ugly.   See video at TheHill. Cruz started the fratricide by shutting down the govt. the slipstreamed behind Trump then lost the nomination.  There wouldn’t have been a Donald Trump had there been no Ted Cruz inflicting damage.  
Looks like 1964 Cow Palace at he birth of the conservative GOP; Rockefeller was not chosen, but Sen Goldwater.  Trump has run a divisive campaign, blames others for America’s problem,; why do we have a 2% economy, international problems, a Brobdingnagian debt?  The folks on my TV now look like an old, white party. Parties count on having a “convention bounce”; the candidate needs to acknowledge the disorder and not keep attacking elements of the party.  RNC made an error in not unbinding delegates, letting hem vote their conscience. Had Trump won that, he would have been [properly celebrated]. Instead, it looks rigged by the party elite, and let Cruz come and speak regrettably.   GOP makes a mistake to look to 2020.   There’s a reason why both presidential candidates are so disliked.
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re:  Putin’s odd affection for Trump.
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Eric Trager, Washington Institute, in re:  Turkey’s Coup Is a Sign of Hope for Exiled Egyptian Islamists
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/07/19/the-fallout-from-the-coup-in-turkey/turkeys-coup-is-a-sign-of-hope-for-exiled-egyptian-islamists
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Bud Weinstein, Hoover, and SMU oil & gas; in re:  Here's a recent piece you may find of interest:  http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/287075-fuel-cells-can-help-battle-climate-change
 
Hour Four
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  The Politicians and the Egalitarians: The Hidden History of American Politics, by Sean Wilentz, Part II of II (segment 5 of 8)  
“This stimulating book provides a major new interpretation of the alliance between egalitarian social movements and partisan politics to achieve some of the most notable liberal victories in the American past. Sean Wilentz has done more than anyone else to blend social and political history in a manner that offers powerful new insights.” (James M. McPherson)
About the Author   Sean Wilentz is the George Henry Davis 1886 Professor of American History at Princeton University and author of the Bancroft Prize–winning The Rise of American Democracy, Bob Dylan in America, and many other works. He is completing his next book, No Property in Man, on slavery, antislavery, and the Constitution, based on his Nathan I. Huggins Lectures delivered at Harvard in 2015.
https://www.amazon.com/Politicians-Egalitarians-History-American-Politics/dp/0393285022?ie=UTF8&qid=1468974114&ref_=la_B00MBT1WBE_1_1&s=books&sr=1-1
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  The Politicians and the Egalitarians: The Hidden History of American Politics, by Sean Wilentz, Part II of II (segment 6 of 8)
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  The Politicians and the Egalitarians: The Hidden History of American Politics, by Sean Wilentz, Part II of II (segment 7of 8)
Wednesday 20 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   The Politicians and the Egalitarians: The Hidden History of American Politics, by Sean Wilentz, Part II of II (segment 8 of 8)