The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 18 July 2012

Air Date: 
July 18, 2012

Curiosity, the Mars Laboratory, to land by Sky Crane on Mars, August 6, 2012.

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Wednesday 905P Eastern Time (605P Pacific Time): Patrick Chovanec, Tsinghua University, in re: China's Q2 numbers. Why is there such widespread continuing optimism about the Chinese economy?  "Lazy thinking."  Labor market has been overstimulated in China; nonetheless, there are layoffs in coal, heavy eqpt mfrg, et al. Premier Wen said he was "worried" about the employment situation in China. Hard landing?  I think that's what we’re seeing ' below 6% GDP growth, but really: economy driven by a huge investment growth; when investment merely levels off, let alone declines, what will take the place?  Not export growth now; and domestic consumption has never been adequately built up.  GC: We're now at 0% growth

Kin Jung Un, the new Field Marshal Great Leader of the Kim Cult of DPRK.

Wednesday 920P Eastern Time (620P Pacific Time): Greg Scarlatoiu, Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (new report on the security apparatus, "Coercion, Control, Surveillance, and Punishment: An Examination of the North Korean Police State," released in Washington tomorrow: http://www.hrnk.org/events/events-view.php?id=1), in re: recent North Korea developments. Purges f/b/o Kim Jong-Eun began in 2009 as he was being prepared. Gong died in a mysterious car crash; uncle and protector of the young Eun; another died of heart attack, more were executed. Head of State Security Dept disappeared this week. Eun's father was ruthless; bureaucracy is trying to make this generation a bit more likable.  Yee Rong-ho purge; mysterious female next to Eun; things seem to be happening fast in Pyongyang.  The avuncular group around Eun are in a terrible rush to get this reign under way. Not sure about personal relationships: Eun may have disliked his mentor, or the man's son has overstepped boundaries and stolen too much; or it all may be a reaction to an uncle's effort to establish himself as the central power/eminence grise

Wednesday 935P Eastern Time (635P Pacific Time): Hotel Mars, episode n.  Irene Klotz, aerospace journalist (Reuters, & Discovery News) covering NASA and intl and commercial space; in re: MSL landing. Issues with Mars Odyssey spacecraft causing difficulties for the upcoming landing of the Curiosity rover.  Odyssey is circling Mars: it takes info & relays it real-time to deep space network on Earth Had a manouevering problem last month, is now recovered but is in a slightly different orbit, so not clear that it will be able to photograph arrival of  Curiosity.

Ashwin Vasavada, Mars Science Laboratory: the problem "won't affect the safety of the rover landing" but only how soon NASA will know if it is safe on the planet. This "adds new stress to what was already a nail-biting moment."

Mars Odyssey "is slowly bouncing back from a malfunction suffered last month, but mission managers expect the orbiter to make a full recovery, agency officials said." Guy Webster, a spokesperson at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said, "It's out of safe mode and they're adding science observations and functions a day at a time, in the process of getting it back to full operations." Project manager Gaylon McSmith said last week, "We are on a cautious path to resume Odyssey's science and relay operations soon."

Curiosity; the Sky Crane and the last half hour of the flight on 6 August.  The Buck Rogers serial episode drama builds.

Sex slaves of the Japanese Imperial Army (called Comfort Women)

Wednesday 950P Eastern Time (650P Pacific Time): Martin Fackler, NYT Tokyo bureau chief, in re: Japan temporarily recalled its ambassador to China on Sunday in response to renewed friction over a Senkakus, a disputed island group, at a time when it faces discord over sex slaves from World War II. Now: both the city of Tokyo and the national government want to buy the islands in order to control them, since there are ongoing fights with both China and Taiwan over ownership. Since the issue is in fact sovereignty, purchase may not do the trick.

Sex slaves: Korean, Chinese, Dutch, many nationalities of women, were enslaved and treated with astounding brutality by Japanese soldiers; current Japanese politics  wants to erase the historical truth. Significant diplomatic failures by Japanese right now. Note; Antagonism and resentment , plus territorial disputes, such as plagued East Asia just before WWII, parallel to what we see today.  There's not security framework like NATO in Asia; even the territorial line of nation states haven’t been drawn. Add to the mix the rise of new power, e.g., China. Settling scores from the Twentieth Century.  Tokyo making  modest moves to prevent it all from getting out of  hand. Not cheering.

 

Wednesday 1005P Eastern  (705P Pacific Time): Scott Harold, associate political scientist at RAND Corporation, in re: China vs. the Philippines in the South China Sea. Some hours ago, a Russian Coast Guard vessel opened fire on Chinese fishermen.  No one died (thank Heaven); in a larger pattern,: growth of assertiveness of Chinese fishing as local/coastal waters are depleted, same time as Beijing's aggression in Philippines, VietNam, and now Russia. Lack of strategic focus. Nontransparent Chinese regime, emptied fishing waters plus weak national leadership combine to allow/create a potential mess.  Alternatively: could be weak leaders trying to throw up chaff to divert attention. Note Chinese  frigate (not a small craft) stuck on shoals near Palowan, exacerbating dispute between PLA Navy and the Philippines. Too many incidents; law of averages suggests that eventually something will go badly wrong.  Chinese relations with South Korea where a Chinese officers killed a Korean; not good.  Chinese navy, while powerful against Asian neighbors, is not yet a match for the Seventh Fleet. In a few years, China will have more hulls in the water than the US will have, but China is not yet close to US in, esp., submarine warfare.  Chinese fishing fleet might be this aggressive for economic reasons.

Wednesday 1020P Eastern (720P Pacific Time): Tenzin Dorjee, Executive Director, Students for a Free Tibet, in re:  recent self-immolations, and other Tibetan developments. Forty-nine self-immolations; desperation among the entire Tibetan populations. Beijing has forcibly moved nomads to shabby cinderblock houses in camps "in the middle of nowhere," leading to alarm and panic and the thought that only self-destruction can possibly lead to any change. Tibetan religious and secular cultures, language, freedom of expression, nomadic heritage - all of Tibetan life – is under threat of obliteration by horrific Han Chinese oppression and murder.

Wednesday 1035P Eastern  (735P Pacific Time):  Sadanand, Dhume, AEI and WSJ, in re: A Pakistani liberal is one who doesn’t believe that all of Pakistan's problems were created by the West. Liberals there are an endangered species. Is this a hopeless cause, or simply a weak cause? Amadis, Shi'a Muslims, not originally supporters of religious tolerance now, under heavy threat from Sunni reactionaries start to see the logic of tolerance. Some people want civilian control: the PPP shd be their Party, but is in a shambles. Many groups are "the equivalent of toddlers" because they've never had a chance to run the country – because the military has moved in to take control much of the time. The overarching goal should be to develop democracy. There are brave, principled minority voices. Huge funds coming in from he Gulf to encourage madrasas and  hatred; also military ties with China.  How can Pakistani liberals stand up against forces that Europe and the US struggle with? Pakistanis have been closely exposed to Western values much longer than to Arab and Chinese culture. Aid to Pakistani military – a paranoid institution reared on strange conspiracy theories ("US and India trying to take over") – empirically not true; need to send aid to civilians and not to those generating terrorism.

Thunderstorm downpour in Manhattan.

Wednesday 1050P Eastern (750P Pacific Time):  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ, Business Asia, in re: Chinese domestic consumption: to increase this, wil have to be made up of services, yet an authoritarian regime fears credit cards, foreign movies, competition, everything. This is not an economic problem, it's political: the unelected tyrants of Beijing are fighting for their lives to maintain the feudal estate of Communist politics.

 

Wednesday 1105P  Eastern (805PPacific Time): Mary Williams Walsh, NYT, in re: State Budget Crisis Report, six large States, all using gimmicks, create up to $1 Trillion in unfunded mandates; and crisis, Medicaid eating state budgets,

Wednesday 1120P Eastern (820P Pacific Time): Jeff Bliss, The Bliss Index, in re: foie gras underground in California finds its way around the banning law. The high-speed rail program lives on, with ceremonies in LA and SF.   Solyndra is George Bush's fault. Bankruptcy sweeps CA; the trend this year for small cities to declare bankruptcy

Wednesday 1135P Eastern  (835P Pacific Time):  

Absolute Monarchs: A History of the Papacy by John Julius Norwich, 1 of 2

Wednesday 1150P Eastern  (850P Pacific Time):  

Absolute Monarchs: A History of the Papacy by John Julius Norwich, 2 of 2

 

Wednesday/Thurs 1205A  Eastern (905 Pacific Time):  Patrick Chovanec, Tsinghua University, in re: China's Q2 numbers. Why is there such widespread continuing optimism about the Chinese economy?  "Lazy thinking."  Labor market has been overstimulated in China; nonetheless, there are layoffs in coal, heavy eqpt mfrg, et al. Premier Wen said he was "worried" about the employment situation in China. Hard landing?  I think that's what we’re seeing ' below 6% GDP growth, but really: economy driven by a huge investment growth; when investment merely levels off, let alone declines, what will take the place?  Not export growth now; and domestic consumption has never been adequately built up.  GC: We're now at 0% growth.

Colorado wildfires blamed on global climate change?

Wednesday/Thurs  1220A Eastern (920 Pacific Time):  Greg Scarlatoiu, Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (new report on the security apparatus, "Coercion, Control, Surveillance, and Punishment: An Examination of the North Korean Police State," released in Washington tomorrow: http://www.hrnk.org/events/events-view.php?id=1), in re: recent North Korea developments. Purges f/b/o Kim Jong-Eun began in 2009 as he was being prepared. Gong died in a mysterious car crash; uncle and protector of the young Eun; another died of heart attack, more were executed. Head of State Security Dept disappeared this week. Eun's father was ruthless; bureaucracy is trying to make this generation a bit more likable.  Yee Rong-ho purge; mysterious female next to Eun; things seem to be happening fast in Pyongyang.  The avuncular group around Eun are in a terrible rush to get this reign under way. Not sure about personal relationships: Eun may have disliked his mentor, or the man's son has overstepped boundaries and stolen too much; or it all may be a reaction to an uncle's effort to establish himself as the central power/eminence grise

 

Wednesday/Thurs  1235A  Eastern (935P Pacific Time):  

Leak: Why Mark Felt Became Deep Throat by Max Holland 

Wednesday/Thurs  1250A  Eastern (950P Pacific Time): Exeunt. Andrew Revkin, NYT, in re: "blame-ologists" and the Colorado fires.

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Music (based on Eastern Daylight Time broadcast)

9-hour: Centurion, Sherlock, Downtown

10-hour: Downtown, Star Trek, Rome

11-hour: Aviator, Prometheus

12-hour: Downtown Abbey, Antarctica

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