Photo, left:  The HQ-9 (Chinese: 红旗;旗; "red flag" or "red banner") is China’s new generation medium- to long-range, active radar homing surface-to-air missile. Unlike the PESA radars of the US MIM-104 Patriot/Russian S-300/S-400 systems, the HQ-9 uses a state-of-the-art AESA radar. The naval HQ-9 appears to be identical to the land-based variant. Its naval type HHQ-9 is equipped in the PLAN Type 052C Lanzhou class destroyer in VLS launch tubes.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-host: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. 
 
Hour One
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Bob Collins, 37-year veteran adviser to the Department of Defense, in re: Kaesŏng Industrial Region  [The Kaesong Industrial Region or Kaesong Industrial Zone is a special administrative industrial region of North Korea. It was formed in 2002 from part of the Kaesong Directly-Governed City.]  Pres Park of ROK painted the DPRK as merciless, gave a harsh speech on birthday of Kim Jong-il, and said that PROK would take steps that would lead to the eventual downfall of the North.  This speech took the North entirely be surprise. It’ll take them a while to figure out how to counter it.   Her points reflect the thoughts of her national security advisor, and at a moment when ROK has the support of the intl community. Have to take strong steps for their own survival.  Reports that DPRK chief of staff may have been executed?  When you dismiss six defense ministers and five mil chairman in five years, the regime cannot be stable. Eun surrounds himself with yes-men – always yes to a thirty-year-old with no experience and horrible judgment and who controls nukes.  Recipe for disaster.  DPRK has five times tried to assassinate the ROK president. Unstable. Nuclear power. North Asia.  http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/17/will-kim-jong-un-go-to-war.html
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Ying Ma, deputy policy director for the Ben Carson presidential campaign, in re: Dr Carson issued a statement about how China’s planting missiles on its bogus island in the Paracels is another example of Pres Obama’s weakness in policy and deed.  The reason the American electorate hasn't heard that much about Asia is that Pres Obama has made a significant mess around the world, so any one challenge [may slide away from attention].  Ying Ma’s personal journey from Communist China to Hong Kong to the Bay Area.  Democracy: the goodness and greatness of the people in this country. . . . People in authoritarian societies want to know how democratic nations govern themselves.  ttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-15/u-s-concerned-by-china-using-non-navy-boats-in-south-china-sea
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Auslin, AEI, in re: Xi Jin-ping threatening, matching the aggression and predation and threats of Erdogan – Turkish dictator – and others; Big-Man-ism.    Breakdown in post-World War II globalization – thought to be an intl community guided by norms and rules and institutions, to cease the [bad behavior] of Big Men. All it takes ins the defenders of that notion to give up asserting their demand that the system continue functioning – and it breaks down. US seems to think that it could just trade, and others would think that trade was more important than other power. Ooops.  To defend the intl system. Have to stop engaging regimes that want to bring down free nations. If the rules are not upheld, need sanctions.  We surely don't want to beg to get to  the negotiating table with rum regimes. “Just one more round of talks” won’t change Putin, China, or the mullahs in Iran. 
Once you propose the Tower of Babel, you come to the end of  . . .     Hey, our institutions have lasted seventy year and helped defend against the Soviet Union/Cold War.    See: Clash of Civilizations, Saml Huntington.  Also: the world general falls into conflict when globalization goes into reverse  - the direction is critical. Grade norms fail.  Protectionism is conflict.   Make sure your fleet is strong . . .   Washington policymakers have done very little thinking till recently - if that – about what to do with a weak China.  (“Entertaining apocalypse.”)  Can we stop this short of armed conflict?    When communities forget the costs of war.  . . . Almost a concatenation  of different interest groups – policymakers, media, others – that lead us down the road to forgetting the costs of war, and then to war.
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Michael Auslin, AEI, in re:  . . . perhaps because of the disorganization in the heart of the Communist Party in China, the words of the leaders to our [US] policymakers are entirely untrustworthy.  Why?  Xi is doing away with the collective leadership model – will he step down? Not? A ruling-class fratricidal conflict?  Maybe Xi had advance notice of the disastrous economy.  Or, just as they began to feel confident as n strong about reshaping Asia, they get hit by economy, lack of trust in their govt, regional strategic problems – just when it was going their way they were hit by unforeseen problems.  Ergo, we have no way of knowing how they’ll react.  They have flag officers extremely arrogant itching to use powerful new eqpt:  we though China(Xi) and DPRK (Kim) were strong , but in fact there’s a lack of coherence  . .   less competent, and less overall in control as the number of executions piles up.  We have little ability to know what ‘s going on in DPRK or to tame them.  We can be sure only that they’ll do something we're not ready for.  JB: In March 2008, when Bear Stearns failed, I said only half in jest: get gold and ammo.
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Rick Fisher, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: Ground-to-air missiles - PLA Navy and the US Navy staring nose to nose in the Spratly Islands in the south (“the Great Wall of Sand”) and then north thereof, the Paracel Islands, where there are real islands. US sent in Arleigh Burke-class ship; now, missiles confirmed on one of the Paracels – the HQ9 (an S300, a fourth-gen SAM), range of 225 miles to maintain a military exclusion zone China just bet the bank.  First time a fourth-gen surface-to-air missile has been deployed in the South China Sea.  Will be a permanent feature; important: 1) if this missile is placed in the Spratlys on, say, Subi Reef. It can cover Taiwan’s island.   20 China also soon will send more dangerous missiles – anti-ship, or anti-ship ballistic missiles. First installment in an escalating crisis.  Woody Island becomes a sort of anchored battleship.   Chinese missiles will Go to Subi reef, Mischief reef, and Fiery Cross. The acme of leadership in Washington should be to lead the arms race, but this Administration sadly has chosen not to – need to offer missiles to Philippines; American goal shd be to secure the Palowan Trench, to defends the Philippines from attack, and ensure that the Palowan Strait remain the key thoroughfare for commerce in that region.  The White House has a great piece to play;  neither Dems nor GOP has grasped the larger picture here.  Cruz and Rubio understand the challenge from China . . .  most of the GOP can see the problem of losing in the South China Sea.   Exit strategy?  One stick will pay attention only to a bigger stick.  Try sending in [MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System {ATacMS}?], offer them to Philippines: “If China attacks you, you may use these to return the bogus islands to the sea.”  We've never fought a war vs triple-digit SAMS. 
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/02/17/with-surface-to-air-missiles-china-militarizes-the-south-china-sea.html    China has set up the go board for us.   [If it all goes haywire,] China can either take its piece off the board – or throw it at us.
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research in Beijing and author of China Alone: The Emergence from, and Potential Return to, Isolation, in re her report on consumption and:  The yuan rallied his week after a long spell of dire warnings – why?  Coming into a season of G-29 and a People s Congress; govt needs to look good.  How long can they carry this?   By June it’ll be in a danger zone. Note China’s porous capital controls . RMB is a one-way bet downward, and Beijing can’t control – but doesn’t want to – the govt and rich people are buying appliances and shipping cash out.  Imports from HK are up 108% but ‘way down elsewhere, and HK “imports” in fact are capital flight.  Accelerating capital flight to overseas.  Local govts in some locales are subsidizing people to buy the empty apartments and other unwholesome purchases.  Domestic consumption is supposed to be the great hope – but govt is going to lay off 1 million-plus coal workers.  Fake reports of sales, but when investment ceases, it collapses.  The Conference Board estimated 12% unemployment, but that’ll climb.
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Alan Tonelson, independent economic policy analyst who blogs at RealityChek and tweets at @AlanTonelson, in re: Rancho Mirage ASEAN summit for two days, first time on US soil, same place Pres Obama hosted Xi Jin-ping – a disastrous failure. Sigh. Once again, a significant diplomatic failure for the president since he’s been touting this summit as allies against China. But ASEAN countries are determined to sit on the fence vis-à-vis the US –China rivalry – because China is close by and the US is far away; and there’s no sign that the US would help.  GC: Wrong – this mtg was about symbolism; it acts only on consensus, but Burma, Cambodia and Lao are in China’s orbit; the other seven want to be closer to the US.  This was a rare win.   AT: In a pinch, symbolism won't matter.  All ten nations want to export to the US (Have no intention of opening up their own mkts); all participate in the rival organization that China has set up – free-trade areas, but not really –  to counter the US, esp in commerce.  China’s economy is falling, soon won’t have the funds to pay for one road.  Reuters:  “US Defense Dept said that China had deployed missiles . . “ – war stops globalization.  Quotation from Bill Urban in Pentagon; in other words, the guns are out.  http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2016/02/14/obama-staking-asia-policy-on-asean-sunnylands-summit/#6e014ce02899
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Nick Bisley, La Trobe University Asia exec dir, in re: Analysis and an alternative view of what US activities in the Spratly Islands are actually doing to international relations.   http://webstat.latrobe.edu.au/url/nationalinterest.org/feature/washington-misreads-beijings-south-china-sea-ambitions-14288   Concerning Australia: http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2016/02/04/We-should-think-carefully-about-an-Australian-FONOP-in-the-South-China-Sea.aspx
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re: Mechanized and armored brigades to create a cordon sanitaire to drive the Kurds back from the border – desperation of Erdogan and Davitoglu anent the Turkish civil war, which has already started.  Turkey need to stop Syrian Kurds from supporting Turkish Kurds; fight into the main cities of Ankara and Istanbul.  Kurdish diversionary attacks:  pinpricks across Turkey and across the border.  Turkey trying to legitimize its invasion of Syria; Washington has actively participated in planning and deeds.  US Air Force has been visible with Turkish air force – hospitals in Aleppo: probably false-flag attacks by Turks or Saudis.  Does Russia stay out of this fight?  Russia cannot respond directly because of Montreux Convention: “If a state of war exists between Turkey and Russia, then Turkey may close the Bosphorus”! Turkey vs YPG; . . .  NATO has to be involved . . .   Much resistance to Turkish attempts to drag NATO into its war against Syria.  False-flag attacks on medical facilities.  Turkey will not be attacked.   We're watching Turkey fragment.
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re: Syria driving refugees into Aleppo province and driving back al Nusrah (“The al Qaeda sister”).  Also , ISIS requires Turkey to continue to feed its supplies and manpower.  Turkish proxy force is ISIS , al Qaeda, and the like.  Kurds re reluctant to follow the Russian govt, the Iranian govt – which now is free from economic constraints, needn’t trade via Turkey, and wants to punish it for damaging Iran’s critical ally Syria.  Iran will punish Turley by supporting the Break-up of Turley – Kurdish areas, and Euro components in the West, and other piece in between Need Caspian energy supplies to get through the Kurdish areas. Obama, Kerry, Erdogan, Davitoglu, have set loose the dogs of war against Assad and that’s backfiring.  New power blocs emerging: Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, Saudis – people taking care of themselves as they cannot rely on the US under Pres Obama.   Russia has looked ahead; exit plan?   Putin ins confident of his work: knows the risks; has been forced by Erdogan to break up Turkey in order to get some freedom on the southern plain.  Joint Chiefs consistently tell the president that there’s no strategic benefit to the US fighting alongside Turkey, but Obama is determined to get into war. Entertaining a ground invasion into Syria against the YPG.  NATO will not get involved at his stage. Extremely dangerous material. 
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Aaron Klein,  Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief; in re: The militarized chaos across the Middle East (1 of 2)
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Aaron Klein,  Breitbart Middle East Bureau Chief; in re: The militarized chaos across the Middle East (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  the presidential  campaigns. (1 of 4)
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  the presidential  campaigns. (2 of 4)
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  the presidential  campaigns. (3 of 4)
Wednesday   17 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  the presidential  campaigns. (4 of 4)
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