The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 16 November 2016

Air Date: 
November 16, 2016

Photo, left:  Standing Rock Resistance Radio goes live, August 2016
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:   Paul Giarra, president of Global Strategies & Transformation, in re:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japans-pm-hopes-to-start-building-a-trusting-relationship-with-trump/2016/11/14/e710f6f9-1b60-41cd-9c89-f247ec97bfd7_story.html
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re:  http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/trump-xi-phone-call/
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Auslin, AEI, and author: The End of the Asian Century, now on Amazon; in re:    A chat with Japan’s leader. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is to meet Mr. Trump on Thursday in New York to try to get off on a decent footing after a campaign in which Mr. Trump demanded that Japan pay more for troop support and take more responsibility for its defense.
South Korean and Japan and Trump  In today's Wall Street Journal, I look at Trump's turn from campaigning to governing, as he appears to find common ground with the South Korean and Japanese leaders. 
Japan especially because of doubts about US alliance   In the National Interest, I wrote a memo to the president-elect on how to best approach his November 17 meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
What is to be done for détente? In a Foreign Affairs essay entitled "Duterte's Defiance," I argue that Donald Trump must try to salvage U.S.-Philippine relations before it is too late. We are not the only ones interested in Asia, however . . .
The question of Asia and Brexit?   In the U.K.'s  Daily Telegraph, I discuss Prime Minister Theresa May's recent trip to India, and the opportunities and risks of expanding economic relations with Asian nations.
Trump Inherits Obama/Clinton’s Asia Pivot: China, South Korea, Japan, Philippines.    “…Mr. Trump’s policy musings, however, were not the first signs of danger in Asia. Despite the Obama administration’s enthusiastic Asia pivot, relations with China worsened over the past few years. Beijing has built and militarized islands in contested waters of the South China Sea and lately drawn both the Philippines and Malaysia closer to its embrace.
As for North Korea, the Obama policy of “strategic restraint” has resulted only in an intensification of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. This has led South Korean thinkers and media to call for either the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or the pursuit of an indigenous nuclear program.
Mr. Obama’s failure to make TPP a legislative priority before leaving office has also soured relations with other signatories, including Japan, whose lower house of the Diet ratified the treaty the day after Mr. Trump’s victory.
In his conversation with Ms. Park, Korean sources say, Mr. Trump reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to South Korea. That will be welcome news to those worried about how North Korea’s Kim Jong-un would take advantage of a distancing between the allies. Mr. Trump should also push for the timely introduction of the Thaad anti-missile system, as a signal for Pyongyang to reconsider any provocations it may have planned.
As for Japan, Mr. Trump seems to have a longtime antipathy toward the country. It was thus a bold move for Mr. Abe to request a meeting so soon, and to have been willing to fly to the U.S. ahead of the APEC summit to meet the president-elect. Given that Mr. Abe is now likely to lead Japan through 2021, thanks to a change in the rules of the Liberal Democratic Party, the relationship between the two men will be particularly important to U.S. policy in Asia….” http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-pivot-to-asia-1479145312
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Michael Auslin, AEI, and author: The End of the Asian Century, now on Amazon (2 of 2)
 
Hour Two
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Chris Harmer, senior military analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, in re:  http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/11/15/china-claims-its-first-aircraft-carrier-is-now-ready-for-combat.html
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re:  Asia's reaction to Trump's trade policies, and Xi vs. Apple.  Why is Xi Jinping threatening the US with demolition of Apple in China?
US needs to focus on better access, a level playing field, and enforcement of intellectual property laws.   Dpes China believe that we're so timid that we’ll fall on its knees if it threatens Apple?  It wants global obeisance to its importance Not the fragility of the CCP and domestic problems in Chinese society.  In 2015, US had $334.1 billion deficit with China – although Apple is vulnerable, the US is in a much stronger place than is China.  China simply has no other [enormous]market to sell to.  SO Beijing believes that Silicon Valley can call Washington and demand, “Lay it off”?  Yes.  They don't understand individual rights and decision.  Does Xi need new advisors?  Yes! Where's China’s end-game?  Looks like a crash.  China is threatening the United States of America with taking our Apples away!   http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/apple-iphones-could-be-hit-if-trump-imposes-a-45-percent-tariff-on-china-exports-beijing-warns.html
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  David Feith, WSJ Hong Kong, in re: Asia Goes Nuke Because of Trump Administration? @DavidFeithtm, @WSJOpinion. @GordonGChang, @TheDailyBeast.  Nuclear Research Group for Korea: discussing South Korea’s obtaining its own nuclear capacity, both because of exacerbating tensions with North Korea, and now Candidate Trump’s saying he’d be fine with pulling US troops out of ROK and letting North and South Korea get their own nukes.  Chief founder of the group argues that the statement that “ROK would become a pariah if it got nukes” no longer obtains. If Trump really meant it, then the risk of becoming a pariah and facing US sanctions goes away. 
South Koreans are thinking through their nuclear possibilities much more openly than the Japanese are.  Korean public figures openly call for nukes, whereas in Japan tits much quieter even though Japan has a whole lot of plutonium.  Taiwan: no such discussion, partly because it’d send relations with Beijing into a dangerous crisis; but they look at the nuclearization of ROK and Japan is related to their own activities. 
China has been the world’s leading nuclear proliferators. Should the US give nukes to its allies and say, “”live with it”?  That would eventuate in [extreme] consequences; China ignores a cascade and coddles North Korea, and that kicks off the problems we all have.
Chinese support of North Korea triggers and array of events in East Asia of which some may be inconvenient to China:  e.g., placement of reciprocal armaments. 
      The nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia was bound to be one of the most dangerous challenges facing the next U.S. president, no matter who won on Tuesday. With Donald Trump ’s surprise victory, though, it could metastasize in dramatic ways: If you thought North Korea’s nuclear march was disconcerting, consider that South Korea and Japan may now pursue nuclear programs of their own, raising the risks and stakes of war not only with North Korea but China too.
Mr. Trump repeatedly endorsed such a nuclear proliferation cascade on the campaign trail. “At some point we have to say—you know what?—we’re better off if Japan protects itself against this maniac in North Korea, we’re better off, frankly, if South Korea is going to start to protect itself,” he said. This was a corollary to his threats to pull U.S. troops from Japan and South Korea, where they’ve helped secure peace for more than six decades, if those countries don’t start spending dramatically more on their own defense.
It’s possible Mr. Trump will drop his enthusiasm for South Korean and Japanese nuclearization upon entering the Oval Office. His campaign advisers tended to ignore the subject in public statements, likely a reflection of the decades-old bipartisan consensus against nuclear proliferation in Washington. But as with other issues, the approach of President Trump will depend on who he brings into the White House for advice, and whether he listens to them.
Cheong Seong-chang will be calling for South Korean nuclearization either way. Speaking in Seoul last week, before America voted, the soft-spoken scholar and government advisor argued that his country needs nukes to defend itself, that a majority of his countrymen agree, and that skeptics in government will embrace the view sooner or later. Sooner if a Trump administration backs it, he says, but within a decade regardless.
Two months ago Mr. Cheong and other security, diplomatic and engineering experts launched the Nuclear Research Group for Korea to study Seoul’s options. A similar group was established in the early 1990s, he says, but disbanded within a few years “under heavy social pressure” because it was “politically incorrect” to broach the nuclear issue. Today that taboo is gone.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/with-trump-asias-nuclear-crisis-expands-1478797800
With Trump, Asia’s Nuclear Crisis Expands   Next to North Korea and fearing U.S. abandonment, South Korea and Japan weigh their own options.    —Seoul.   The nuclear crisis in Northeast Asia was bound to be one of the most dangerous challenges facing the next U.S. president, no matter who won on Tuesday. With Donald Trump’s surprise victory, though, it could metastasize in dramatic ways: If you thought North Korea’s nuclear march was disconcerting, consider that South Korea and Japan may now pursue
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Aaron Klein, Breitbart Middle East bureau chief, in re:   Israel become ever more a center of stability as it allies closely with Egypt.  However, Steve Bannon.  I’ve been working with Steve for a year and we’ve become close friends; the [aspersions] against him are the opposite of what I’ve seen. One of his main goals in recruiting me was to provide much more accurate reporting on Israel and Palestine, to call Steve “anti-Semitic” is the opposite of what he’s done and I’ve seen. He’s been concerned about the anti-Jewish trend on US campuses, and the boycott, once I returned from touring in Israel and Steve had heard of an association between Bard College and Hamas – he was furious called me at 1 AM and asked me to spotlight that scandal. The complaints against Steve are Alice-in-Looking-Glass material.
He wants to expose who's behind the boycott of he Jewish state: the ADL has disgraced itself with this.  Let me be clear: I’d never work for a n anti-Semite; and Steve Bannon will be pro-Jewish and pro-Israel in the White House.
Alt right:  I’m also senior reporter at Breitbart, and even I don't know exactly what the “alt right” is.  Scores of articles try to define it; I’ve done interviews with major media outlets, and they say, also, they don't know what it is.
Steve understands that the single greatest threat to Israel and the free world is Iran. Also, the witches’s brew in Sinai, Syria, [et al] areas: [deep] threat. Note that we’ve had questionable characters in the Obama Administration – O’Malley, Thomas Pickering, sneaking in and out of Gaza, supporting the Muslim Brotherhood – these are 100% anti-American and anti Jewish.   Does Breitbart Jerusalem stay strong? Yes. 
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Those who talk, don't know; those who know, don't talk.  New York Times spoke of “purge” in the presidential transition – what?  You have to staff an entire West Wing and an entire Federal govt. plus people on the outside who might be best for he job, and all in seventy days. Of course some will have ruffled feathers, this has been going on since George Washington decided not to be a potentate. “Purge
“purge” is associated with middle-of-the-night executions; as far as we know there has been none so far. Jeff Sessions: “I told Conservative o work with Trump.”  Per brings a lot of people along. I see discussions coming: TPP , NAFTA, etc.   Corp tax reduction – House wants 20%, Trump wants 15%.  Decisions will be made swiftly, sicne Trump has a mandate.   Supreme Court, Obamacare, job-killing regulations:  al in the firs 100 days to unleash he engine of growth. 
Chris Christie: he went over to D J Trump and stayed very loyal; now he’s seen as having stepped aside from the Transition.  Bridgegate; and Trump was said to have been degusted that Christie let subordinates [take the rap] for Bridgegate.  “Drain the swamp”: Christie was recommending his cronies or establishment transitions.  Trump dumped his press pool at 21last night for two hours.   Left press attacks Trump for it. Guess they’ll all make Trump’s life holy hell. “Do I dare to eat a steak?” 
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor (2 of 2)
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, NYU Law, in re:   The Iran Deal and the Rut of History.    Trump Foreign Policy & the Tattered Iran Deal. @RichardAEpstein
In this environment, President Obama asserted dominance in the foreign policy arena, and, frankly, made something of a mess of it. To be sure, he was the Commander-in-Chief, but all too often he overrode the judgment of his military personnel, notwithstanding their greater aptitude, knowledge, and experience in these matters. You should not be slavish in accepting their advice, but should at least set a strong presumption on matters of strategy. Ruling out the use of ground forces led Obama to make serious errors in judgments. His mistakes in office have left you with two major deficits.
The first of these is a weakened military establishment incapable of working in multiple theaters at the same time. But no diplomatic effort will be credible unless the United States has some military presence to back it up. Keep the military weak, and it is more likely that provocations by others—not unlike the Russian move in Ukraine—will be called into action. On this score, therefore, I agree with your stated position of “increasing the number of active Army soldiers (from 490,000 to 540,000), growing the number of Marine Corps battalions (from 23 to 36), building up the Navy (from roughly 270 ships to 350), and expanding the number of Air Force fighter aircraft (from roughly 1,100 to 1,200).” Doing this will require some very radical revisions of current manpower and procurement policies, which are long overdue in any event.
The second deficit is the total loss of credibility with our allies based on our systematic inability to back threats with action. Obama’s empty threat over the Syrian “red line” constituted a serious loss in at least three ways. First, it ensured the Syrian conflict would continue unabated with senseless loss of life, and with greater Russian intervention, which somehow did not amount to the “quagmire” that Obama warned Putin would happen. It is amazing the degrees of freedom a tyrant like Putin can have in foreign affairs if he is willing to slaughter innocent people. Second, the Syrian escapade made it clear to our allies that the United States could not be counted on to keep its word when the going got tough, thus requiring them work out a set of fragile alliances, such as the quiet cooperation between the Israelis, Saudis, and Egyptians to preserve their vital interests, in ways that could only increase the odds of some brushfire war that could escalate into a major conflict, as with the struggle between the Turks and Kurds. And third, it emboldens our enemies to take aggressive steps around the world, confident that we do not have the willingness to stop them. http://www.hoover.org/research/open-letter-donald-trump-foreign-policy
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, NYU Law, in re:   The Iran Deal and the Rut of History.    Trump Foreign Policy & the Tattered Iran Deal. @RichardAEpstein  (2)
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  The Earth Is Weeping: The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West, by Peter Cozzens Part II of III; segment 5 of 12
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  The Earth Is Weeping: The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West, by Peter Cozzens Part II of III; segment 6 of 12
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: The Earth Is Weeping: The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West, by Peter Cozzens Part II of III; segment 7 of 12
Wednesday   16 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   The Earth Is Weeping: The Epic Story of the Indian Wars for the American West, by Peter Cozzens Part II of III; segment 8 of 12