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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com & Daily Beast. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re:  MSCI is a widely-followed EM [emerging market] index; the Chinese domestic mkt wants to be represented in it. MSCI says if you want to be included, you need to let foreigners invest safely, & get their money out.   MSCI this time asked for clarification. China refused and it’s correctly been kicked out. Last year, the IMF included RMB in its special drawing rights basket even though it didn't meet the requirement; then China welched on its commitment and now is worse than it was before. China doesn't play by the rules. It's like China’s saying “Yeah yeah, we don't want 11 men  on the pitch ‘cause we’re special and we’ll put 12 men in.”  This measure isn't anti-China; it’s merely an obligation for all players to play by the rules. Even Pakistan has conformed.  The only reason China pulled this is as a power play  A-shares are denominated in local currency, not much available to foreigners; and in any case once you get in you can't easily get out.  What will happen to the A-shares investments?   This MSCI isn't a death blow to the Chinese mkt; it just underlines that it’s not a safe market.  China wants all the benefits of intl mkts without following obligatory rules: “No no, I’m China.” The Shanghai index rallied on the news: only because the govt jumped in and supported. This is more proof that it's not a real market. In fact, China’s A share mkt is less free than it was a year ago.
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Bob Collins, 37-year veteran advisor to the Department of Defense, in re: North Korea has stored Pn in Yongbin, probably have a fair amount of fissile material. As soon as they can match it with a mobile missile system and hid them under overpasses, in mountains, all around, the sooner . . . They’re basking what may be operation missiles next to the Chinese border.  Also cyber attacks; DPRK was just foiled in mounting a massive cyberattack on South Korea, which has put a lot of money and training into protection, First, they were lucky; also, a big problem is a continual effort by N Korea to improve: have three colleges trainig young people and give them excellent comfort. It's only a matter of time. Most of them are not IN North Korea, but in China; where it passes through the Great Firewall. 
Sony: 10 TB [terabytes] were exfiltrated into North Korea via China.  Getting money is their number-one goal; they barely are surviving and are determined to prop up the regime.  Is there a Plan B for China to intervene if the regime collapses? We have to assume so; writings expanding among the Chinese mil elite.    China also doesn't want the test of the world to know how completely China has been involved with Pyongyang in nuclear dvpt. Has to sequester scientists and especially technicians.  http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-southkorea-cyber-idUSKCN0YZ0BE  ;  http://www.stripes.com/news/report-n-korea-significantly-increasing-its-nuclear-capabilities-1.414636
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Gordon Chang, in re:  Incident in Japanese waters* where the US Pacific fleet commander reportedly last hours China has created antagonism in   Chinese intell ship entered Japanese waters (Thurs AM in Asia) a day after the US Pacific commander reportedly discussed security matters there.  Chines vessel followed Indian ships that were participating.  Chines-Japanese hostility is old, but Xi Jingping is new to this game of baiting. He knew he’d provoke Japan. Why?  TO intimidate Japan – unsuccessfully: forcing Japan to spend a great deal more on defense, build up the navy, and grow closer to the US, Now we have a Japan that’s riled up. It was docile, but no longer.  The Stennis was tuned away from a Hong Kong port call.  This is like the USSR during the Cold War.  This was not merely monitoring exercises of neighbors: it comes after a series of other provocations- Chinese planes made a very close pass against a US plane; then a Chinese warship for the first time ever entered waters around Senkakus.  This entry was not innocent passage as it needs to move through waters expeditiously and cannot be collecting intell. An overt violation of Japanese sovereignty.  . . . Hague Court arbitration panel decision (Philippines vs China) is pending; that’s the larger context. We think there’ll be trouble when it comes down; everyone expects a ruling against China, which probably will do something to change facts on the ground. Expect problems also in the South China Sea.  The whole world is watching with deep concern.  
Malaysia issued a statement on behalf ASEAN organization (mtg of ASEAN ministers in Kunming) then retracted it three hours later. What did China threaten?  Also, Chinese provocation in the Himalayas several days ago.    Philippines are weak, eke Vietnam, but Japan is a power.
* http://www.stripes.com/news/chinese-spy-ship-spotted-in-japanese-waters-1.414643
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Bill Roggio, LongWarJournal, in re:  Any news from Afghanistan anent the Orlando shooter?  His parents long ago were from here.  Khorasan Province is the IS caliphate network in Nangahar Province in Afgh, and extend out to Uzbekistan and around Central Asia.  Taliban ruthlessly hunted them don do they’re hiding out in caves and he like.  Now it's released Cubs of the Caliphate photos, or two dozen small children holding up signs, raising one finger, and the Islamic flag, supposedly celebrating the Orlando massacre.  Once such a thing gets in to any jihadist feed in social media, it rapidly propagates around he world.  Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan: it split in half over the emir’s saying he was sceptical about the status of Mullah Omar, who’d died two years before [??].  When half split away last summer, one side took the whole media apparatus to the real distress of the other side. 
Taliban seizes a district in Uruzgan The Taliban controls one of Uruzgan's five districts, and contests the other four. The shadow governor for Uruzgan said in April his forces would emphasize complete control of the province. A significant central province; Taliban call it strategic terrain, as does the Afgh govt.  The Taliban shadow governor says: We control everything but the district centers – the administration!  We’ll take them.  The US was providing air support against them but lost. . .  . Afghanistan’s security is collapsing at the center.
Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan faction emerges after group’s collapse  After Usman Ghazi, the last emir of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, joined the Islamic State's Khorasan province, the group split in two and a core cadre remained loyal to the Taliban and al Qaeda.
IS' Khorasan Province Shows "Joy" of Children for Orlando, Magnanville Attacks
Hour Two
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Harry Kazianis, senior Fellow for Defense Policy at the Center for the National Interest, in re:  Ten hours ago in Kunming, in China, an annual ASEAN trade organization mtg, where everyone agreed to be friendly. Regionally, 14.5% of trade comes from China; the list includes Laos & Cambodia, which always vote with China; and Indonesia, and other nations more or less allied with the US. What occurred is odd; ASEAN issued a strong statement, via Malaysia: “Serious concern” anent “China’s militarization” – and it was retracted within hours, which led individuals to come forward and rebuke and taunt China.  China got ambushed.  All these states that have sovereignty in the South China Sea while China bulldozes over it, have been looking for a way to “get in China’s face” and say building fake islands there is wrong putting in missile defense systems there is wrong.  Oddly Malaysia has been a good friend to China, yet it issued he statement, Before that, the Singaporean foreign minister was supposed to meet his Chinese counterpart but pulled out hours in advance.  China has pushed this region almost to a limit.  Another stat: $366 bil in trade between China and ASEAN.  China played the economic cared when it played games with rare earths, and also trade and travel linkages with Manila; but there exists a mindset shift. China wants to dominate; neighbors are waking up, maybe too late.  Chinese spy ship follows Indian ships in the Malabar exercise.  Recall Chinese warships on Jun 9 for the first time ever in the Senkakus. China is ramping up attacks everywhere at once. This is spectacular. “Once is happenstance, twice is circumstance; three times is enemy action.” A showdown could bring in many outside powers – very dangerous.  Btw, ASEAN seems to have done this entirely without the US.  [Wow.]   http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/asean-retracts-south/2871648.html
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Rick Fisher, senior Fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: Scifi  “Falling skies.”  The real thing; the Chiinese military space station is falling in a way that doesn't sound healthy to whoever is underneath, Chinese plans to de-orbit their junk?  If so, they  haven't notified the world. Tiangung1 is said to be in a state where they’ve stopped collecting data from it.  It's thought that it’ll land late this year or early next year – where’ll you be?  There seems to be a little fuel left on board, which is being saved for the last moments.   China has plans for a new space station to be launched from Wencheng Space Station in Hainan Island. Modules said to be completed by 2022 or 2023. About when US and partners are deciding whether or not to continue ISS with its partners, China will be starting afresh.    Also, successor space stations.  Current modular structure lends itself to mil utility; can turn civilian space station into a mil one very quickly. Will start with a space telescope flying with it, can dock and undock,  Expect a second or third, might look like a telescope but carry a very different payload.
China displayed a laser-guided 220m artillery rocket; have an inexpensive rocket for sale that can take out gazillion-dollar ships, Range of 60km, but can it at speeds  up to 30km per hour.  Terminally-guided ballistic missile.  Can be used from a ship to assist in attacks against the shore (e.g., Taiwan).  China is designing weapons for its aggression.  Artilery laser-guided round for the South China Sea.  http://www.space.com/33140-china-tiangong-1-space-lab-falling-to-earth.html
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Dune Lawrence,  THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF WECHAT, in re:  Dune Lawrence's full (and mostly successful) immersion in China’s everything app.  WeChat is owned by TenCent.  Doesn't look to different from WhatsApp. Once you delve in, you see almost unltd services on it, payment, everything for making a new friend, plus stores, products – have their own QR code. In the coffee shop, you scan your phone, enter your PIN, and take your coffee.  In China, most people do not use cash any ore, and you look odd doing so.  A young woman began writing into a blog, realized she could make this into a business. She opened a WeChat and in 6 months got 25,000 followers.  On WeChat there are so many facilities. She set up a WeChat sore, began by importing products from Korea, wd hold flash sales and she’d send things off. In Sept 2015 it got too big, and a week later a friend introduced her by WeChat to a fellow who immediately invest 4 million RMB.   She hired staff.  Money pours in.  This reduces everything to a little device on your smartphone.  All the apps are within one messaging platform. She runs a store off a smartphone platform. Can sell globally, of course.
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Michael Auslin, AEI, in re:  http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/in-search-of-the-xi-doctrine/
 
Hour Three
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Hillary Clinton won the final Democratic primary Tuesday night as voters in Washington, D.C. delivered a resounding win to the party’s presumptive nominee, one week after she clinched the nomination,” Politico reports. “The contest marked the close of one of the longest primary fights in American history. Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-Vt.) contested the final primary, even while acknowledging the reality of the delegate math.”  Politico: “His team is stepping up its behind-the-scenes conversations with Hillary Clinton’s camp. He hasn’t sent a fundraising email for his own campaign in six days. He’s also not holding a rally tonight, making it the first Tuesday with voting that he hasn’t held one this year.” “In other words, Bernie Sanders isn’t really running for president anymore.”
“But he hasn’t officially given up either. He still has a skeleton staff, a Secret Service detail, a charter plane contract, and the firmly held belief that by formally staying in the race he has the leverage to exact platform and party rules concessions from Clinton.”
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block B:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  A new Bloomberg poll finds that Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Donald Trump, 49% to 37%.   . . .   Very interesting: 55% of those polled saying they could never vote for Trump.  Said pollster Ann Selzer: “Clinton has a number of advantages in this poll, in addition to her lead. Her supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump’s and more voters overall see her becoming a more appealing candidate than say that for Trump.”  A new Reuters/Ipsos poll also shows Clinton leading by 12 points.
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block C:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz told NBC News that she is focused on electing a Democratic president but would not definitively say she will be head of the DNC come November.  Bill Clinton Says Foundation Will Change if Wife Elected President ;  Saudi Arabia Has Funded 20% of Hillary's Presidential Campaign, Saudi Crown Prince Claims.   What Russia's DNC Hack Tells Us about Hillary Clinton's Private Email Server  ;  While Russia's breach of the DNC is worrisome, Putin's real treasure trove might just be . . . 
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 3, Block D:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:     Trump to meet with NRA about barring some gun purchases   Donald Trump addresses members of the National Rifle Association during their NRA-ILA ...
Donald Trump to meet with National Rifle Association - CNNPolitics.com
Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), who has been mentioned as a possible running mate for Donald Trump, told reporters that Trump’s speech following the worst mass shooting in American history “wasn’t the type of speech one would expect” from a presidential candidate, USA Today reports.
Said Corker: “In an effort to be constructive, I have offered public encouragement at important times, but I must admit that I am personally discouraged by the results.”    
“Senate Republicans have tried to work with Donald Trump. They’ve offered gentle advice and firm guidance, hoping he’ll morph into a general election candidate who won’t kill their chances of keeping the Senate, or better yet, will give Hillary Clinton a run for her money,” Politico reports.
“None of it has worked. And now a palpable mix of despair and resignation has permeated the Senate Republican Conference. Many lawmakers are openly frustrated, and refusing to defend the comments and actions of their own standard-bearer, the man they’ve endorsed for president.”
Top Republicans join Obama in condemning Trump's words  Trump — who just a week ago signaled an intent to snap his campaign into a more . . .
Negative views of Donald Trump just hit a new campaign high: 7 in 10 Americans ;  Trump's Unfavorables Spike, but Clinton's Challenged Too (Poll)  ;  Trump's fundraisers see no chance of hitting $1 billion - POLITICO    www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-donors-billion-224080
 
Hour Four
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Hotel Mars, episode n, in re:
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Hotel Mars, episode n, in re:
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:
Wednesday   15 June 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re: