The John Batchelor Show

Wednesday 11 November 2015

Air Date: 
November 11, 2015

Photo, left: The pad abort test will utilize a flight-like Dragon 2 and Trunk, departing from a truss structure under the power of its SuperDraco thrusters, rather than sitting atop of a Falcon 9 – as previously outlined by Crewed Dragon Program Lead Dr. Garrett Reisman.
McGREGOR, Texas (NASA PR) — The propulsion system that SpaceX would use to power its Crew Dragon out of danger has been test-fired 27 times as the company refines the design for the demands of operational missions carrying astronauts to the International Space Station for NASA’s Commercial Crew Program. SpaceX evaluated the system utilizing various thrust cycles on a test stand at its McGregor, Texas, rocket development facility. Named SuperDracos, the engines are arranged in four pairs – SpaceX calls them ‘jetpacks’ – integrated around the outside of the Crew Dragon spacecraft. Firing all at once, the eight engines produce 120,000 pounds of thrust – enough power to accelerate a Crew Dragon from zero to 100 mph in 1.2 seconds. In the unlikely event of an emergency, that power means the ability to lift the crew a safe distance off the launch pad or far away from a booster failing on the way to orbit. That capability was demonstrated earlier this year in a pad abort test that confirmed the SuperDraco design in a flight-like condition.
A normal launch of the Crew Dragon atop a Falcon 9 rocket would not offer the SuperDracos anything to do during the mission since their only responsibility is to fire in an emergency to rescue the crew onboard. Eventually, SpaceX plans to use the SuperDracos in the place of a parachute during landing. They use hypergolic propellants common in spacecraft thruster systems because the propellants ignite as soon as they contact each other. The engines are noteworthy for a number of reasons, including that they are built using 3-D printing methods instead of machining them from larger pieces. After the development cycle, the propulsion system and SuperDracos will continue evaluations at the company’s test stand to qualify them for use on operational missions.
SpaceX and Boeing are developing a new generation of American-made, human-rated transportation systems capable of taking astronauts to the space station in partnership with NASA. The Crew Dragon and Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner will carry up to four NASA astronauts at a time, which ultimately adds another crew member to the space station and will allow twice as much time for astronauts to conduct research aboard the one-of-a-kind laboratory.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Hour One
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Kelley Currie, senior Fellow with the Project 2049 Institute, in re:  the Burma election (Kelley was there during the election).   . . . China will definitely come in and work to seize local power, perhaps with port facilities and other infrastructure and commerce.   The most resource=-rich zones are conflict areas – note that China controls the "rebels" along the northern border.   Burma arrested over 200 Chinese nationals for stealing vast amounts of timber – then pardoned them to please China and t the rage of Burmans.
"If results in Falam were any indication, the NLD will do very well in the elections, including in at least some ethnic areas. They swept in Falam with substantial margins. The campaign strategy of focusing on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, rather than their local candidates, and a somewhat scorched earth approach to the regional ethnic parties seems to have been a smart tactical choice. The question remains whether in the longer term this will have been wise.
"It is pretty isolated up in Falam and the local NLD folks kept asking me for news from Mandalay and Rangoon, of which I had little except that they seem to have done well.  From what I could tell going around polling places on Election Day, those who voted we're excited to do so and the process was orderly to the point of hilarity at times. But up 30% of the eligible voters in Falam seem to have stayed away from the polls. This is a worrying sign given the "historic" nature of this election.  By 2:00, most polling places were empty and many villages had already finished counting and sent their ballots to the Election Commission office. We had results (unofficial) well before 6:00.
"In conversations with some of the more educated and higher information voters in this small town, it was interesting also to see how they viewed the regional parties and the NLD. The pastor of the largest church in town, whose family members are heavily involved in one of the ethnic parties told me he personally was voting NLD because he didn't think it made sense for the future of Chin State to have such regional parties but rather it would be better to support the NLD and help them to wrest control of the government. While this thinking may not have been typical of the average voter in Falam, I was surprised by how often I heard this sentiment in various forms.
"My friend Cheery, who ran for parliament as a candidate for an ethnic Chin party, could not overcome the NLD wave in Falam despite running a really strong and modern style campaign. She is extremely well known in her home town and did everything "right" as a candidate, but her party ultimately did not have the strength to back up her aspirations. There were also lots of rumors about irregularities and shenanigans; as a first time candidate she struggled to accept the loss and grasping at these rumors. Spending the evening of her loss with her and her dedicated team of volunteers was one of the most moving political experiences I have ever had. And a personally tough one considering the admiration and regard I have for her. It was incredibly brave for her to run as a candidate here and I am so proud of her, and hope this loss won't discourage her from public service. Likewise, I hope the local NLD in Falam will be magnanimous in victory and reach out to these politically engaged voters.
"On the bright side, several of my other friends appear to have ridden the NLD wave to victory in Rangoon and Mandalay. They are young, smart and diverse people who represent the future of the party and I hope they will be given opportunities to lead - something that remains an open question given the ongoing concerns about the NLD's leadership and strategic challenges.
"Thinking a little about how the NLD won, I suspect that teachers were among its most powerful secret weapons at the grassroots level. As government employees, they have been forced to join the USDP and its predecessor mass organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), and forced to work under a regime that intentionally kept the population ignorant and backwards. It turned out, unsurprisingly, that many of them were secret (or maybe not so secret) NLD supporters. Given their central role as Election Day workers, they likely have helped to keep the vote clean and more credible than it otherwise might have been.
"The biggest remaining issue hanging out on the horizon that could cloud this election seems likely to be advance votes, which were heavily cast in military dominated areas and have been a major area of concern due to both the voting process itself and the lack of independent monitoring of it. Already there have been complaints about large and suspicious tranches of advance votes in Shan and Kachin states. Keep an eye on this issue going forward.
"On a more general note, it has been a source of both frustration and bemusement over the years how many Burma "experts" have continually underestimated two things: the strength of the NLD at the grassroots level despite (or more likely because of) decades of persecution; and just how much the Burmese people hate being governed by the venal and incompetent generals. I expect these commentators and intelligentsia will continue to trash Daw Suu and the NLD ( the "can she govern?" stories are already in full swing), and I hope that that the NLD will continue to defy their expectations. The challenges of governance and governing truly are immense, but pearl-clutching over her dismissive attitude towards the junta's anti-democratic constitution strikes me as nonsensical."
 Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Cleo Paskal, Visiting Trudeau Fellow, University of Montreal's Center for International Studies and Associate Fellow, Chatham House, in re: Nepal is caught between the two Asian giants, China and India, both geographically and politically.  China's influence, regrettably, has been malign.  Relations between India and China were getting much better; Modhi (BJP) entered, and worked to improve that, too. Then Bihar had elections; and th en the constituencies of the natl Upper House is determined by state legislatures – and Modhi lost Bihar. Modhi had decided to run on an ethnic base and blockaded fuel supplies to Nepal.  / Local ethnic-based politics were used to influence what should have been a normal election and now has derailed relations between Nepal and India.    China jumped in to offer succor.  China wants to dominate Nepali politics – and routes out of Tibet run through Nepal. Chinese military seems to have been operating on Nepali soil to round up fleeing Tibetans.  Modhi was elected on an economic-reform platform, but some of his [sidekicks] have moved to ethnic politics. (Congress Party was implicated in anti-Sikh deeds.)  http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/11/08/world-view-nepal-turns-to-china-as-border-tensions-with-india-increase/ ; https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/11/10/indias-ruling-party-just-lost-an-important-election-so-what/
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: David Brain, NASA MAVEN (Martian atmosphere), in re: Martian atmospheric announcements. Atmosphere and liquid water on Mars: Wager could have gone subsurface, or escaped into space.  Atmosphere sustains the water on the surface over time; absent an atmosphere, the water wants to sublimate or freeze out at the poles.  . . . Mars seems to have lost its magnetic field half a billion years into its existence – lost internal heat.  Earth has a magnetic field – is 8 or 9 times the volume of Mars; heat creates a churning that creates a magnetic field.   MAVEN results say that a planet can lose an atmosphere . .  [swiftly].  . . . Solar wind: when the sun is forming, the solar wind persists – in our case, 4.5 billion years. Punctuated by solar storms: streams of particles, tsunami-like. . . . Mars slipstream: charged particles escape down the tail.
http://observer.com/2015/11/new-data-from-maven-spacecraft-gives-clarity-to-where-mars-water-went/ ; Billions of years ago, the atmosphere on Mars was warm enough for flowing rivers, lakes and oceans. http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/solar-system/maven-researchers-find-contributor-to-martian-climate-change/    NASA researchers published the scientific results from their work studying the Martian atmosphere in the Nov. 5th issues of the journals Science and Geophysical Research Letters, showing that solar wind is the main contributor to Martian climate change by stripping away its atmosphere.  /  http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/missions/solar-system/maven-researcher...   New Data from MAVEN Spacecraft Give Clarity to Where Mars’ Water Went  Billions of years ago the atmosphere on Mars was warm enough for flowing rivers, lakes and oceans: http://observer.com/2015/11/new-data-from-maven-spacecraft-gives-clarity...
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 1, Block D:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack, in re: http://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/points-of-information/spacex-...   SpaceX successfully tests its Dragon capsule abort rocket thrusters  The competition heats up: SpaceX has successfully tested its abort rocket thrusters that will be used to speed a Dragon capsule away from any rocket during a failed launch. Named SuperDracos, the engines are arranged in four pairs – SpaceX calls them ‘jetpacks’ – integrated around the outside of the Crew Dragon spacecraft. Firing all at once, the eight engines produce 120,000 pounds of thrust – enough power to accelerate a Crew Dragon from zero to 100 mph in 1.2 seconds. In the unlikely event of an emergency, that power means the ability to lift the crew a safe distance off the launch pad or far away from a booster failing on the way to orbit. That capability was demonstrated earlier this year in a pad abort test that confirmed the SuperDraco design in a flight-like condition.
A normal launch of the Crew Dragon atop a Falcon 9 rocket would not offer the SuperDracos anything to do during the mission since their only responsibility is to fire in an emergency to rescue the crew onboard. Eventually, SpaceX plans to use the SuperDracos in the place of a parachute during landing.
Hour Two
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen Yates, chairman of the Idaho Republican Party, CEO of D.C. International Advisory, and former advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, in re: Consolidation of Taiwanese democracy in a way that has to be disappointing to Beijing. Last week Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou [turncoat to Taiwan, representing Kuo Min Tang] met.  Not much substance, the meeting was the message. Competing approaches to press – Xi had his surrogate address the press, while Ma actually spoke out loud. It was meant to show, "See, dignity and economic." Too little too late.     Opposing candidate is Tsai Ing-wen. Her polls jumped points when Taiwanese people saw the shameful meeting.  / Xi said that he missiles aimed at Taiwan aren't aimed at Taiwanese people.  In TW, 3.5% identified themselves as Chinese only; 65% called themselves Taiwanese.  Can't rule out Mainland brutality against the independent Taiwanese election, but by 2015, highly unlikely.  http://www.cbsnews.com/news/historic-meeting-china-taiwan-leaders-xi-jinping-ma-ying to Beijing.   Last week, Xi Jinping and Ma Yinging-jeou-singapore/  ;  http://www.businessinsider.com/r-taiwan-opposition-leader-remains-election-frontrunner-after-xi-ma-summit-polls-2015-11
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block B:   Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re: the Chinese stock market, and http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/11/08/welcome-back-to-china-mr-bull/ Conversation only for bulls: contraction in China washed away by the running of the bulls in the Shanghai markets. Last Thursday, Chinese stocks on the Shanghai composite, was 20%-plus higher than the August low. Why?  "Let's suspend fact" – I agree.  A hugely inflated mkt, govt bought $300 billion of stock  Nothing attracts money like a rising stock market, so into the bubble.  Govt wants the mkt to rise to fund infrastructure. Insanity.  Continual credit build-up to keep the place afloat, and the cash goes into the Stock mkt for a quick buck (er, RMB).  Imports down 18%, consumer price index down for 44 consecutive months.  Overseas investors want it all to be nice. There's no stabilizataion, rather a slow grinding down, Haven't seen anything fall off a cliff. Look for mass  unemployment – the real test of whether or not the govt is prepared to weather this.  SDR (special drawing rights; invented): if your currency is in the intl basket, you can include your FX as arithmetic for the IMF.  There are regs about including a currency in the SDR which China emphatically has not met. But politics will overcome rationality and the RMB will probably become included in SDR.    Welcome back in the room, bears. 
 
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block C:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washinton University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re:  Alex Roarty reports that Marco Rubio won the debate, Donald Trump lost it, and nobody got saved by the bell.     http://www.nationaljournal.com/s/92358/marco-rubio-won-debate-donald-tru...
OFF MESSAGE: 5 Takeaways from the GOP Debate  In a video and story for 'Off Message,' POLITICO's Chief Political Correspondent Glenn Thrush explains how Bush didn't bomb, Rubio and Cruz took flight and Paul looked the odd man out.  http://politi.co/1QhTIrg Tuesday night's Republican debate in Milwaukee wasn't as much a neat romp as the previous three - but it represented a vital team-building exercise for a party that seemed to be pulling itself apart at the raucous Oct. 28th CNBC scrum. There were sharp, sometimes contentious exchanges on immigration and military intervention, but for the most part the eight GOP contenders presented themselves - for the first time - as a diverse but essentially coherent field united against Hillary Clinton, who seems increasingly likely to win the Democratic nomination. To do so, they united against all the current common enemies - big government and big media - but also coalesced around a common hero, Ronald Reagan. (1 of 2)
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Dr Lara M Brown, Georgge Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (2 of 2)
Hour Three
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-usa-election-socialmedia-idUSKCN0T01ZZ20151111  U.S. Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz stole the spotlight on social media from the front-runners during a televised GOP debate on Tuesday night, drawing attention and positive reviews. / Reuters http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/11/us-usa-election-socialmedia-id...
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/nov/11/charles-hurt-jeb-bush-john-kasich-pandering-illega/
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/11/pat-caddell-trump-carson-rising-because-americans-have-had-it-with-politicalmedia-establishments/
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/heard-last-clinton-emails-not-173200980.html There was hope among supporters of Hillary Clinton that after she spent 11 hours batting away questions in a marathon House Select Committee on Benghazi hearing last month, the controversy over her use of a private email server while Secretary of State might subside. However, recent revelations suggest that the controversy isn’t going anywhere.
Hour Four
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: To Hell and Back: The Last Train from Hiroshima (Asia/Pacific/Perspectives), by Charles Pellegrino  Part 3 of 3   (segment 1 of 4)
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: To Hell and Back: The Last Train from Hiroshima (Asia/Pacific/Perspectives), by Charles Pellegrino  Part 3 of 3   (segment 2 of 4)
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: To Hell and Back: The Last Train from Hiroshima (Asia/Pacific/Perspectives), by Charles Pellegrino  Part 3 of 3   (segment 3 of 4)
Wednesday  11 November 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: To Hell and Back: The Last Train from Hiroshima (Asia/Pacific/Perspectives), by Charles Pellegrino  Part 3 of 3   (segment 4 of 4)
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