Photo, left: Nineveh, Iraq.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
 
Hour One
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 1, Block A: Arthur Waldron, Lauder professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: David Shambaugh, of Brookings, writes that the Party is in disarray; with this article, a pillar of Chinese despotism for forty years is shifting. Xi is acting like an old-fashioned emperor who wants to get something done, not just swan around. He goes after tigers (rich and corrupt officials); if he fails and the tigers get loose, there'll be something like chaos or civil war, and if he succeeds he'll have a cleaner situation. Xi says he believes in Communism; "None of these Western Chinese specialists has ever imagined that we Chinese cd have a peaceful, democratic transition."  Xi toward legality and transition? Beginning of an exit from Communism?   See Global Times. He's on a knife-edge right now.  If Xi, like Gorbachov, says that Communism can be made to work, then he'll perforce fail.  . . .  None of them [the – in effect- warlords] has legitimacy; but according to the Net, the people are more interested  in Xi's deeds than in anything since Tien An Men.   It’s not capital flight, it’s China hand flight. It’s taken them only forty years of full-time study of he RC to decide that the system doesn’t work; but many of us have known that since the 1950s.
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 1, Block B: James Holmes, professor of strategy at the Naval War College and a former surface warfare officer, in re: Real Clear Defense – the 10.2% PLA defense budget, conjoined with Chinese ambitions in the bastion seas (S and E China Seas) – an island cordon.  Take geography that belongs to US allies and helping prevent China from seizing others's territory.  Map a threat to something China holds dear; here via the  Japanese islands, access to the Pacific.  Station land troops and anti-ship missiles on [ships] t prevent invasion. Thus threatened to block [aggressive] Chinese shipping.  In the First Island Chain, there are allies and uncertain allies to the US; e.g., Indonesia, where China claims the Netuna[?] islands. The more threats, the more China creates its own enemies.  Indonesians have done the logical thing and stayed out of this fray for as long as possible.  Paracels.  "God created Taiwan to frustrate the Chinese?" – Right, it all seems to come back to TW, which sits at the middle of that island chain. Reconcentrates Beijjng's interest in Taipei.  Not merely the eleventh province, but the strength of China's reclaiming [Luzon Straits to the south and the southernmost Ryukyus.]
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 1, Block C: Bruce Jakosky, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder, in re: Plumes 250 km above the surface of Mars: caused by what? Compete mystery. To me it’s a puzzle why it'd site there for ten days and not either fall down or be distributed.  We saw them on 6 April 2012 for some days, then not again for three years.  . . . .  We thought there was a thick ocean on Mars for he first billion years.  . . . Maven spacecraft can explore 150 - 6,000 km.  . . .  Some of first Maven results will be published next week.
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 1, Block D: Elbridge Colby, CENTER FOR NEW AMERICAN SECURITY, in re: Why China's Growing Defense Budget Matters
 
Hour Two
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 2, Block A: Mike Davis, professor at Hong Kong University Law School, in re:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-06/hong-kong-delegates-push-plan-at-npc-to-teach-kids-to-love-china and other issues: the second consultation period on political reform, which just ended, and the attacks on Hong Kong academic institutions, especially on Hong Kong University Law School faculty. HK was surrendered to China nearly twenty years ago during a prosperous time; now, HK sees the PRC as being quite different from liberty-loving Hong Kong.  Doubts about Xi's leadership and the Communist Party and its lack of legitimacy.  Xi is tightening the reins all across the society. Establishing re-education camps throughout Hong Kong, similar to what Mao did decades ago, then called "bases." Considered alarming.  Preschool and kindergarten children will be propagandized, which began when Beijing saw that the recent protests were run by youth, so the unelected tyrants of Beijing are training HK youth in "patriotic education" - to be subservient to the Party.  Intimidation targetted at universities – attacking deans, et al. at Hong Kong University Law School has just slipped below the fiftieth-best university, apparently because of Beijing's pressure on academic freedom.  . . . this is an in-between phase: legislators in Legislative Council [LegCo] all signed a statement saying they'll veto Beijing's edict, causing a bureaucrat from the north to cancel his trip. 
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 2, Block B: Reggie Littlejohn,  founder and president of Women's Rights Without Frontiers, in re: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/07/us-women-day-china-idUSKBN0M308F20150307  Intl Women's day was to have been marked by two young women on 7 March to speak against sexual harassment of women; instead hey were arrested.  A great example of how not to celebrate Intl Women's day (Mao: "Women hold up half the sky"), and now ten have been detained.  UN Commission on the Status of Women.  part of a general crackdown on Chinese civil society; can’t tolerate more tan two people gathering at once.  Govt also rips crosses down from churches because the congregations are "too large."  . . .  Mrs Clinton wrote that she'd played a major part in liberating the Chinese blind activist, whereas he wrote memoirs saying instead that he was quite frustrated with the State Dept.  / CCP says that some couples may have two children but need permits or will be subjected to forced abortions.  This is crackdown not on women's rights but on freedom of expression and association.  They’re even afraid of women saying they oppose sexual harassment on public transportation. Of the ten jailed, five released, the five remaining not allowed to see their lawyers. 
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 2, Block C:  Lucy Hornby, FT.com, in re: Uneasy relations of necessity between China and Russia anent oil and gas. Great powers balance each other. GC: Both have economies in trouble; five years ago their proposed strategic partnership was a mirage, but now it’s more durable. LH: China sees Central Asia as its Near Abroad, and has overcapacity of production, so will invest in neighbors – esp rails, steel, and the like. Overland to Europe, as well as new markets and access to resource supplies.   . . .  The deal with Russia on the gas pipeline is going so slowly in part because there's an internal debate on how much access to give foreigner to oil and gas; also, bldg the pipeline will be extremely expensive and needs to  be considered.  GC: a Russian deputy PM said that Chinese could own more than 50% of oil and gas fields.  JB: Russia in fierce contest with NATO right now.  China sees that Russia needs this market, and will be a pole in a bipolar world.  LH:  China not unhappy to se a rupture between Russia and the West.  . . .  upstream O&G reserves in Siberia.
 GLOBAL ECONOMY, China and Russia set to finalise gas deal  Supply agreement a sign of Moscow’s shift towards Asia
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 2, Block D: Tom Mitchell, FT.com, in re: The flaws in Li's economic model: pollution, poor social services, et al. Not news to the Chinese people, but a change in the last year by the Chinese govt – esp China's debt load in relation to GDPP is enormous, and he environmental effect hare horrendous.  Growth from 6>5% to 7%.  The major shift shave been anti-reforms (Predatory practices vs companies) – not reform.   A lot of shuffling to no particular purpose.  State-owned enterprises continue to see debt levels climb.  A case to say that the Chinese govt has been mouthing a lot of right things but not much visible.  Med svcs, elderly care, transport, food safety, corruption, envtl degradation, others, all acknowledged to be quite problematic.   Xi and Li still have a certain amt of credibility, but that could change quickly.  . . .   Some suspicion that the president and Genl Party Secy have usurped some power from the PM. Li Kaiqiung may have  ne-term career.  Cyybersecurity concerns letter went to a Party leading group on cybersecurity. 
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/04bdd1fa-c31d-11e4-9c27-00144feab7de.html#axzz3TpcGv3Ta
 
Hour Three
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:
 [more] (1 of 2)
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: The political world is still unpacking Hillary Clinton ’s stonewall of a press conference on her emails as Secretary of State, with Politico summing up her overall message on Tuesday as “Go to Hell.” That’s putting it politely, but it does capture the Clintonian contempt for the media and anyone else who questions her desire to play politics according to her own rules. [more] (2 of 2)
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 3, Block C: Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast, in re: the assassination of Boris Yefimovich Nemtsov
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 3, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Chinese space station.
 
Hour Four
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 4, Block A:  Steve Starr, Physicians for Social Responsibility, in re: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand_(nuclear_war) (1 of 2)
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 4, Block B:  Steve Starr, Physicians for Social responsibility, in re: "We know where to shoot"; Dead Hand.
KP: - Team Strategic Missile Forces have an idea about the purpose for which it in case of a real military threat have to shoot?
Sergey Karakayev: - Can I answer you this question, allegorically? ... So. Former Chief of General Staff Strategic Missile Forces, Colonel-General Viktor Esin told me that's such a case. After his discharge, he continued to work in the office of the Security Council and one day came to the Americans in the delegation. So he says, "I am going to San Francisco with the Americans on the bus. All the talking, laughing. And then - drive past the lighthouse. I looked at him and said: "I know this lighthouse." Americans - to him: "As you may know it, if you are the first time in San Francisco?". And he says: "You forget that I was doing nuclear planning. And the lighthouse - it was aiming point. I'll tell you, and more: next to the lighthouse is the collapse of the Earth's crust. So, if you get here mnogomegatonny block, something happens landslide. And half of California would be in the ocean. After all rode in silence to the destination ... "So we're their" beacons "know ...
KP: - What if tomorrow the war?
Sergey Karakayev: - All the plans, all flight missions are located in the equipment. Therefore, technically refocus on combat flight mission - is second.
WHY RUSSIA "dead hand"?
KP: - At one time in our and foreign press have been publishing about the system "Perimeter" which existed in the USSR. And in 2009 the American magazine "Uayret" told his readers that the system is functioning and is still alive. This is the rocket that if all is lost, takes off and gives the team the rest of the missiles. And they are already automatically take off and hit the desired target. "Dead Hand" in the West called this system.
Sergey Karakayev: - And you knowingly eat their own bread! Yes, the system "Perimeter" exists today. She is on duty. And when the need arises in a retaliatory strike when you can not bring up some of the launchers signal, this command can come from these missiles from the "perimeter" ...
KP: - There was a very interesting remark Putin at a meeting with the club "Valdai". There's someone says to him: "You can destroy the United States for about half an hour." And Putin thought and thought and said: "Actually, faster ..."
Sergey Karakayev: - I will answer briefly: Vladimir Vladimirovich rights. But I think today, neither Russia nor the United States is not going to destroy each other. (2 of 2)
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 4, Block C: Caner K. Dagli, Atlantic, in re: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/02/what-muslims-really-want-isis-atlantic/386156/?utm_source=SFTwitter
Wednesday  11 March 2015/ Hour 4, Block D:   Tunku Varadarajan, Hoover, in re: Why has this Chinese festival captured the Western imagination while Indian festivals have not, or at least not to a similarly pervasive extent? Is Chinese culture inherently more accessible to the outsider than is its Indian counterpart?   [more]