Wednesday 10 June 2015
Photo, left: Boyoma Falls, formerly known as Stanley Falls, consists of seven cataracts, each no more than 5 m (16 ft) high, extending over more than 100 km (62 mi) along a curve of the Lualaba River between the river port towns of Ubundu and Kisangani/Boyoma in the Orientale Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com. Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Charles Burton, professor at Brock University, in re: anciently the Silk Road travelled from the land of silk production to the West. Chinese people protected silk worm husbandry. Today, Xi is listening instead to . . . new route: Central China to Urumchi to Bishkek to Istanbul to Moscow, to Germany to Venice, Greece and Djibouti – and shipping lines to bring it all back to China. China can infrastructure over the whole planet. Does this have the substance as reported in the trillion-dollar investment? If this is sustainable, why hasn’t private enterprise built it? Are military and state-owned firms justified in this investment? In South America, speaking of 3,000 km high-speed rail – hundreds of billions and trillions. How long to make that viable? China to become the leader of global development because of he Chinese model is very appealing to Chinese nationalism, where ht mythos is that the US is in decline, and Africans and S Americans and SE Asians will all look up to China.
Sounds like late 1933-early 19434 - the death of capitalism, when the Soviet model became the favored road. Walter Durante recounted the miracle of it all on the front page of the NYT, which led to the US building a command economy – the New Deal – and what USSR called the Five-Year Plan.
In fact. China has built mfrg that massively overwhelms what they can sell now, so are sending trillions to build infrastructure through which it can sell worldwide. Why isn’t Europe disagreeing? Only holdouts for G7 to signing on are US, Canada, and Japan. China tried exactly the same thing at home – massively overblt infrastructure and can’t sell – so it's trying it in Tajikistan. Since the piper calls the tune, it can demand lots of trade concessions "not consistent with intl norms." Imagine Stanleyyille (Kisangani), the Stanley Falls that were a tourist attraction in 1913; now, hotels and streets are covered with vines. First (or second?) wave of globalization disappeared in the First War. Yes, there is an element of hubris here; designed to please the Communist Party leaders.
http://qz.com/415649/china-is-building-the-most-extensive-global-commercial-military-empire-in-history/
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Charles Ortel, managing director of Newport Value Partners, in re: Chinese stock market [gone bonkers]. The measures help only optically Vide South Sea bubble. it's not investing, is gambling/manic speculation. How will it affect the rest of the world? If we understood that mentality, it wouldn’t'; but Americans assumes that their markets work like our markets, which is dangerous. . . . Lowering interest rates merely helps those who already have a lot of capital. In China,, massive trading volumes; no one looking at what the intrinsic value of he stocks is. Classic ingredients of a crash. Could be worse than 1929, could 1833. http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-stocks-wont-yet-join-mscis-widely-tracked-emerging-markets-index-1433885346
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. Anatoly Zak, Russian Space Web & author, Russia in Space, The Past Explained, the Future Explored, in re: results of the Russian Progress failure from design flaws. Another failure of Russian Proton rocket: this time they claim that it wasn't a control issue but a design problem that's been extant for the past 50 years of its operation, Problem manifested itself rarely; now, they say, they know how to fix it and will. Yes, there’s a basic design problem at the social-structure level, will take a while to clean it up, so they’re trying to minimize it. Rockets fail in all countries; technology of this type will continue, but Russian failure now too frequent to be tolerable. Recall that when the Challenger failed, so did three other rockets within six months. . . . Unusual combination of mass, center of gravity – this really is rocket science. This is the only rocket that carries humans so we need to be extremely careful. . . . Angara made only one launch, which is not of great consequence in determining reliability. Three astronauts are returning on Thurs night Kazakhstan time.
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: now 450 addtl US troops to Sunni Iraq. Currently has 3,100-plus soldiers there. Is this a war creep back in to Iraq? US approaches this is absolute minimum we can contribute to hold off ISIS. So exasperating to watch the Obama Adm putting young women and men n harm's way without safeguarding them. US conveys that it has no intention of fighting seriously. US so obviously doesn't want to get involved or contribute to the outcome of defeating ISIS; rather, this president hands the problem off to his successor, A terrible outcome for the people of Iraq an Syria, Conveys hat ISIS should keep fighting. I think it's an immoral strategy. Soleimani makes it obvious that ran is fighting in there. Soleimani should be top of the US enemies list; w could target him and that would send the [right] message, that we want to succeed in thee region. We’re encouraging Iran, which we’re fighting with, and ISIS, which we're fighting against. Iran ought to be afraid to intervene in Iraq. This is a losing strategy.
Hour Two
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Fraser Howie, co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise, in re: . . On Chinese mkt, PEI is at 130. This is beyond rational thinking anywhere on Earth. Singapore index trading at 15. ("Hey – sounds like a buy.") Govt had to orchestrate stimulus; the money heads straight to the stock market. This rally has taken some pressure off the debt problem in China b/c some companies can raise money not on debt but on equity. Now margin trading is in excess of $300 bil – things used to be fully funded are now funded on credit or debt. Huge amt of leverage. Living on the margin destroyed US economy in 1931. Beijing can see this; do they have a plan? [Laughter in the control room.] Not really. Markets are volatile; falling mkts are much more vicious than rising mkts. Cannot catch a falling knife. Many foreigners are in, but it's really a domestic story.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-08/one-belt-one-road-may-be-chinas-one-chance-save-collapsing-economy
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2015/06/07/china-blowing-a-trillion-dollars-on-its-silk-roads/
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Nitin Gokhale, independent security analyst and author of Beyond NJ 9842: The Saichen Saga, in re: Adm Sun of China has been speaking aggressively to his neighbors and created quite a furor. US SecDef left Shangri-La Dialogue to visit Delhi. South China Sea, Malacca Straits – China intrusive. Modernization of the Indian military. Ash Carter made his first stop in India to the Eastern Seaboard of India to its Eastern Command, whence it can project power eastward. US starting to deliver warships. Before, in 2007, China complained about trilateral cooperation; this time, that's ineffective as the neighbors pay attention to Chinese aggression. New security mangers in India realize the potential of keeping this alliance working; Modi went to China and said, "You're the problem, not us." New paradigm. India deals wit China both in competition and in cooperation. China is meddling in India's NEW, arming groups and creating anew organization, In Myanmar, Chinese-backed insurgents killed 20 Indian troops on 4 June. On 9 June, Indian troops inserted in Myanmar by helo and killed 40 – a major signal to the militants and to their backers, the Chinese. China is trying to break up India.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-kicks-off-trilateral-talks-with-japan-and-australia-joint-training-naval-exercises-on-agenda/articleshow/47579881.cms
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Sadanand Dhume, AEI, in re:
How Modi Can Shine Again The prime minister needs to ignite the imagination of investors and show he’s serious about reform. / Narendra Modi, the extremely effective communicator, is everywhere. Doing well in the Indian Ocean Basin militarily but Modi's economy – which was in free-fall when Congress Party left office, and he's stopped that – people expected more reforms. He's been bold in foreign policy but timid economically. His political strategy has been to play it safe on the economic front – avoided decisions that might be beneficial in a few years but controversial domestically. Overall, good for foreign direct investment (up 30%) and institutional investment (up 400%). Over the last two months that latter has started ot go away. He has a commanding majority n the Lower House and so still can [move mountains]. "I'm tired of carrying loss-making state-owned companies, want to privatize them" – he could still do that. The electricity issue: he's essentially upped generation, solved coal-supply problem, auctioned coal mines – has fixed what he can with better administration; but the state electricity boards are bloated, can’t charge mkt rates – big pols are expected to address these things. He did that in Gujarat, where everyone has 24 hours of electricity, and pays for it. Not like it the US, where both sides have policy exerts, ready to hit the ground running, The uncharitable view is that Modi decided it can return to power without making these decisions. Congress is being very unhelpful for India: open the playbook of Indira Gandhi, revert to 1970-style socialist rhetoric, accuse the govt of being only a govt of the rich, which ahs been damaging. Best remedy for poverty is a job, Education: elite young people still with Modi - large following, optimism. The base of this party is the small shopkeeper, like the bazaaris in Turkey.
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Bob Collins, free-lance writer on Korea, DoD [ret], in Seoul; in re: MERS – Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, spread from Came l to human, and originating mostly in Saudi Arabia - in Korea. Nine dead, 1,800 schools closed. For many citizens, it's panic; 122 cases; most of the country is concerned. In the last few days, there's nobody on the streets; number-one item selling there is face masks. In Korea, it's the custom to have a family member stay in hospital with relative and stay overnight. A physician from Saudi had his family members stay with him so it spread. Is now in two hospitals. If you have symptoms, govt now says do not go to hospital; call a special health squad to your home. Camels in Kenya: thin population density, but Korea is the second densest population the world after Bangladesh. No screening in US for MERS! In Korea, an 80-year-old woman was ordered to stay in hospital, declined, returned to her village ,and they had to quarantine the entire village.
Hour Three
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re: Marco Rubio's Career Bedeviled by Financial Struggles Among presidential contenders, Mr. Rubio stands out for his youth, his meteoric political rise ...
DR. MANNY: I'm 'financially irresponsible' like Senator Marco Rubio, and proud of it What’s the purpose of the New York Times article attacking Senator Marco Rubio on the front page of today’s paper?
The whole article seems to me, to be about how a decent, family-loving, first-generation American has struggled with financial challenges. As I read the story, I thought I was reading about my life.
My mother and father were immigrants who left Cuba under the toughest conditions. As a young Cuban who came to this country as an orphan, it became very clear to me that when my parents did finally make it here, I would always be responsible for helping them – including financially.
So I educated myself. I took out student loans that were tough to pay back – but every chance I got, I gave what I could to my parents, my sister and my nieces. You know why? I was lucky enough to be growing up in a free country and had enough maturity to realize that an education was important. So I became the doctor. Just like Rubio became the lawyer. The NYT notes that Rubio has confessed to a “lack of bookkeeping skills” and an “imperfect accounting system” in his 2012 memoir, “An American Son,” and that he learned to manage money through trial and error.
Certainly, at no time in my life did my parents provide any financial education. And it was not because they didn’t respect money or hard work, but rather, because they did not know enough about it themselves having come from a communist country that stripped them of everything they owned – including their freedom. They lived their lives very simply. They worked, kept their home, and they ate what they killed – in other words -- they lived paycheck to paycheck like many American families. Yet, at the same time, they created an infrastructure that allowed me to pursue my dream of becoming a doctor, just like Rubio was able to become a lawyer.
The Times also notes that Rubio used the money he made his 2012 memoir to pay off student loans – where is the fault in that? This, at a time when the national debt has climbed exponentially under an administration who shows blatant disregard for the value of a dollar.
To cast a negative light on the financial challenges of Rubio’s still relatively young life, is to insult many hard-working Latinos that do the same thing every day. The NYT should be focusing on what’s important in the upcoming presidential race: character flaws, lies, sex scandals and corruption. We’re already dealing with enough of that up on Capitol Hill. And those are the flaws that weaken the character of a leader. The way I see it, the only thing you can accuse Rubio of doing is loving his family and trying to provide the best for them. So he leases a $50,000 car, and he has a big house in a working class neighborhood. Wow. I guess the NYT doesn’t want Latinos to dream. Because when we dream and make mistakes, it seems to be confused with a certain stereotype of irresponsibility.
And (gasp!) how could you trust a person who borrows from his retirement account? What an irresponsible human being. If that’s the case, I guess I am irresponsible because my duty is to sacrifice for my family. And that, I would not change for the world. We all make sacrifices on the way up. But the point is that we make it.
John Kasich Is Not Running to Be President Dan Balz at the Washington Post reports that John Kasich has hired John Weaver and Fred ...
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; (2 of 2)
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Aaron Klein, KleinOnline and Investigative Radio, in re: Hamas blames PA for recent Gaza Strip bombings Hamas accused the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority of attempting to destabilize security in the Gaza Strip Wednesday, indicating ...
In Gaza Strip, fish farms bring relief to seafood lovers Deseret News
Hamas: Senior PA officials behind recent spate of bombings in Gaza International-Jerusalem Post Israel News
UN's soft stance on Israel is wrong Opinion-gulfnews.com
Palestinian Salafists pose dangerous new problem for Hamas
Russia urges US to act in lockstep with Syria to crush IS Moscow (AFP) - Russia on Tuesday urged a US-led coalition fighting against the Islamic State group to coordinate their air raids with the Syrian
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: New close-up image of Ceres’s double bright spots the dwarf planet’s double bright spot, which now resolves itself into a cluster of two larger spots with a half dozen smaller spots scattered nearby. The region with the brightest spots is in a crater about 55 miles (90 kilometers) across. The spots consist of many individual bright points of differing sizes, with a central cluster. So far, scientists have found no obvious explanation for their observed locations or brightness levels.
“The bright spots in this configuration make Ceres unique from anything we’ve seen before in the solar system. The science team is working to understand their source. Reflection from ice is the leading candidate in my mind, but the team continues to consider alternate possibilities, such as salt. With closer views from the new orbit and multiple view angles, we soon will be better able to determine the nature of this enigmatic phenomenon,” said Chris Russell, principal investigator for the Dawn mission based at the University of California, Los Angeles.
To my eye, these bright areas resemble a wide flat caldera of a volcano. Instead of being at the top of a peak, the caldera is like a lava pool, almost like a large lake. In this case, the large spots are lakes of frozen ice that periodically melt and flow. The smaller spots are likely smaller vents where water can bubble up from below during active periods. When not active, the water will be frozen. Since ice is white and Ceres is very dark, the pools and vents appear extremely bright in these images. I am speculating, however. We will have to wait for much better images to know for sure.
Finding caves on Mars A new study of pits on Mars has isolated one particular type of pit that has all the features of an Earth-like cave entrance, with a large number located in the regions around the giant volcanoes where evidence of past glacier activity has been found. From the abstract: These Atypical Pit Craters (APCs) generally have sharp and distinct rims, vertical or overhanging walls that extend down to their floors, surface diameters of ~50–350 m, and high depth to diameter (d/D) ratios that are usually greater than 0.3 (which is an upper range value for impacts and bowl-shaped pit craters) and can exceed values of 1.8. Observations by the Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) show that APC floor temperatures are warmer at night and fluctuate with much lower diurnal amplitudes than nearby surfaces or adjacent bowl-shaped pit craters.
In other words, these pits are deeper with steeper and overhanging walls that suggest underlying passages. They also maintain warmer temperatures at night with their day/night temperatures changing far less than the surface, similar to caves on Earth where the cave temperature remains the same year-round. The study’s most important finding, from my perspective, was the location of these pit craters.
Hour Four
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: No Man's Land: Fiction from a World at War, by Pete Ayrton (1 of 4)
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: No Man's Land: Fiction from a World at War, by Pete Ayrton (2 of 4)
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: No Man's Land: Fiction from a World at War, by Pete Ayrton (3 of 4)
Wednesday 10 June 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: No Man's Land: Fiction from a World at War, by Pete Ayrton (4 of 4)