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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Gordon Chang, Forbes.com, and Dr. David M. Livingston, The Space Show.
Hour One
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Rick Fisher, senior fellow on Asian Military Affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, in re: . . .  China has built five new islands, is pouring sand everywhere. It takes a long time for the US Navy to change its views on China, but we're starting to see change. Hughes Reef with an anti-aircraft tower, and others.  . . .  China had sent a bomber through e _ to the east of Taiwan, a new bomber: Xian XK can carry Cruise missiles to intimidate the US on Guam. Then on 1 April two F18s call in an emergency call, land in Tainan for repairs.  Are the Chinese as paranoid as we are? Yes; dangerous mentality.  Can go to Global Times and SIna.com to see that he evil Americans are using Taiwan as an air base for invading China.  In Taiwan, only one of the two parties – Democratic Progressive Party – is in favor of the US.   (1 of 2)
China's Next Move: A Naval Base in the South Atlantic? I recently returned from Walvis Bay, Namibia, the country's sole deep water port and former South Atlantic home to the Royal and South African Navies.  Also in port were two of the three ships of the Royal Navy's Atlantic Patrol Tasking South.  A Daring-class Type 45 air warfare destroyer and a Royal Fleet Auxiliary small fleet tanker were both pier side.  (The task force's third ship, HMS Clyde, was presumably on station patrolling the Falklands.)  While Walvis Bay enjoys a 138-year history with the Royal Navy, it could soon be home to a powerful Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy surface squadron.
In Jan. 2015, The Namibian reported the existence of a "confidential letter from Namibia's ambassador to China, Ringo Abed, to Namibia's foreign minister stat[ing] that 'a [Chinese] delegation will visit Namibia ... for discussions ... on the way forward regarding plans for the proposed naval base in Walvis Bay'.”  According to the letter, a Chinese delegation, including technical staff and naval architects, will meet with Namibian officials sometime after March 21, 2015 to discuss a field feasibility study for the base.  Beijing has told Namibian diplomats that a "Chinese naval presence will deter any would-be illegal trawlers and smugglers.”  China's Indian Ocean-based "string of pearls" naval base strategy to protect the country's 21st Century vision of a "maritime silk road" looks like it may now extend all the way to the South Atlantic.  If such a development came to fruition, it would have major strategic implications for the West. During my visit to Walvis Bay, . . . [more]
. . . [above] an excellent article that combines some on-the-spot perspective calling needed attention to a largely unnoticed challenge with analysis of wider implications.  However, I don't agree with his conclusion that it will be possible for the UK to achieve accommodation with China by sharing the Falklands-area petroleum profits.  China is not going to settle for any kind of subordinate partnership, as demonstrated by its rush to invest militarily even in the shaky Cristina regime in Argentina.  China's goal is to buy off all sectors in Argentina to secure access and dominant military influence, replacing for Argentina what was once their deep partnership with the UK starting in the late 1800s.  It was Argentine corned beef that fueled the Doughboys on the Western Front.  
Perhaps the author is not aware that, starting in the 1980s, China chose sides--it supports the Argentine nationalist ambition to take the Falklands: in part, to divide that society from the US-dominant Western orbit.   China is now making rapid progress toward that goal.  
For the West, the challenge is to recognize China's ambitions on both sides of the South Atlantic.  Part of the answer is to engage in counter-diplomacy/information campaigns and to shore up remaining allies--like Chile--and to contest China in Brazil.  The other part of the answer is to invest in Prompt Global Strike systems to make up for a deficit in aircraft carrier battle groups to keep China in check.   This is also a sign of the future:  contending with constantly evolving multiple Chinese power challenges around the globe--that will get worse as China's global power projection grows.  
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South Korea faces a great challenge, and it has a great opportunity. Its handling of a relatively obscure issue will provide great insight into its future in a vital and volatile area. In the coming months, South Korea and the United States will discuss the potential deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system (a.k.a. THAAD). This system detects incoming missiles and intercepts them at long ranges and high altitudes by using its own hit-to-kill missiles. Think of it as the outer layer in a multi-layered defense system designed to protect South Korea—and the 28,500 U.S. military personnel stationed there—from North Korean missile attacks.
The existing defense in South Korea is a system that integrates Aegis and Patriot systems operated by both countries. While capable, this system lacks the outer layer provided by THAAD, leaving large holes in coverage. If conflict were to occur, military commanders would be forced to prioritize which areas of South Korea to defend. Given this situation, it is easy to see why General Curtis Scaparrotti, the top U.S. commander in Korea, has recommended the deployment of THAAD to his superiors. From the military perspective, it is a prudent step to make the peninsula’s defensive system as complete as possible given the unpredictability of North Korea under Kim Jong-un.
This is where it gets interesting. China does not want to see THAAD deployed to South Korea. The Chinese perceive the system as a threat to their military strategy, and to some degree they are correct. China considers the continued presence of U.S. forces in the Asia/Pacific as contradictory to their national interest. This includes forces stationed at bases in South Korea, Japan, and Guam. The Chinese are cunning competitors, and they have developed a sound strategy for countering U.S. influence by building an arsenal of guided missiles to overwhelm U.S. defenses and hit warships, airplanes, and bases with great accuracy. This imposes high cost on the United States during any potential conflict with China, because defending against these attacks is technologically difficult and very expensive. The Chinese strategy is commonly called anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) because it makes it nearly impossible to deploy forces to . . .
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Rick Fisher, senior fellow on Asian Military Affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center (2 of 2)
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Haym Benaroya, Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering, Rutgers; in re:  Mars colony - from the surface to the subsurface.  For the soil, the water? and the microclimate to create? A lot of the elements we've found on Mars would be conducive to our building a human colony; underground would be a safe haven for humans.  Many component s of Mars and Moon are similar; Mars being farther out raises matters of sunlight.  Underground in each could be significantly different in view of the gravitational differences – Mars has 40% of Earth gravity, twice as much as Moon does.  Opportunity noodling across Mars has found Marathon Valley – seeing shiny metals consistent with aluminum, for example?  Elements estimated on Mars: O2: 40%, plus  silicon, calcium, magnesium, sulphur. First-generation base – module; second gen – surface; third gen: underground.   Our eventual base will be like an iceberg: almost all of  it underground. If we find water, Mankind can thrive. So far, 50% of the spacecraft we’ve sent to Mars haven’t arrived; for the moment, need to send a lot of robotic missions, see what’s there.  Even on Earth, we need human control of digging machines, so currently a rover or bot couldn’t run the dig. If we started today and were serious, we could be on the Moon in 15 years, then another 10 to 15 years for Mars.  Somewhere, listening now, is someone who knows how to do this.  Aim for 2075?  The people who'll do this are already in th eir teens. 
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  Michael Pregent, National Defense University,  in re: Tikrit. Veteran of embeds in Iraq, speaks Arabic. Anbar Province.  Head of Iranian al Quds Force, Soleimani, instructs an Iraqi officer to call in US air support; US bombs on order.  Solemaini is in charge of ground forces and of US air support, and he brags about it: looks, up, says, "See those? They’re mine."
Shia militias: include men and groups that are on State Global Terrorist List and who’ve killed US soldiers.  Have long killed Sunni an Christians.  We support those who go in and ethnically cleanse anyone they oppose. A call goes out: all civilians not associated w ISIS, leave not. ISIS prevents any male 12 to 65 from leaving; if they retreat, a near relative is killed.  If they stay, when al Quds comes in the males are killed. Shia militia will grab and Iraqi army commander who calls Americans: "We have ISIS on the ground" – and the order comes from the Quds Force, which now has the US Air Force and the US Navy under its command. Does the Iraqi army have the capacity to take and hold Tikrit?  Recall US toppling the Saddam statue – US can tout a victory but the periphery is filled with resistance. When you hold a city key to Saddam with Shia militias, [no good can come].  These militias can clear territory but are unwilling to hold it.  Looks like an Iranan-led proxy force, which send Shia militias into heavy resistance.  Iran has learned htat if it moves its key leaders out of camera sight (3 mi away) then the US comes in to do their bidding _ they manage US air power, and our Special Ops forces.  When ISIS first heard the US was coming, you could hear Allahu Akhbar all over Iraq.
Hour Two
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Bob Collins, former senior Pentagon analyst now based in South Korea, in re: . . . A big chunk of the South Korean opposition wants to make South Korea completely vulnerable to the predations of North Korea. . . . South Korea was considering buying Iron Dme (what Israel used)  ____ rely on offense against defense, not defense against    . . . Need to give an excellent demonstration of the system – can use [more modest] systems under 40 mi,   . . . China wants to pry America's influence out of South Korea; any harm it can do to relation s it will. Although THAAD can't intercept Chinese missiles to US, but it can collect info on assets in China and Eastern Russia.  South Korea's THAAD Challenge
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block B:  Nitin Gokhale, independent security analyst and author of Beyond NJ 9842: The Saichen Saga.  He's just returned from Kashmir; focussing on the new government there and the BJPs first foray into Kashmir.  . . .  China often turns Pakistan on in order to hector India. There'll be no peace on that border until China allows it.
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block C:  Sadanand Dhume, AEI & WSJ, in re: Anglosphere – does India have a home ins Asia?  Modi reaches out aggressively to Australia and the US; headed to visit Canada and the US.  One Anglosphere theory includes everywhere once colonized by England, cleaves to transparency and democracy. Another view (left-ish) is to separate from the former colonial power; a current debate is between this and knitting with Anglosphere.   A bi-polar Asia. Nationalist Modi sees that to safeguard India's interests requires having some close ties to the US and Europe.  Across Asia, multiple languages; in India, educated elites speak English.  Ties of cultures, people, systems, laws, what ties India to the West is a common tradition with the Anglosphere.  India sees Iran as a neighbor – needs Iran to have access to Central Asia, which Pakistan won’t allow.  Privately have taken on board US concerns and dialed down relations Iran a bit. Goal is rapid modernization; don’t know  how possible this is, wants to be the transformational leader that Deng Hsiao-ping was to China, or Lee Kwan-yew was to Singapore. . . . India's sense of Manifest Destiny (more or less) – at some point will have the largest population in the world, has the oldest continuous civilization.  Historical legacy of elements responding to what they see as Western criticism in knee-jerk fashion (Greenpeace; BBC film banned).
 India Should Be Bigger Than It Appears The nation's recent reactions to foreign opinion has only made it look small.  Is there a grand Western conspiracy to tar India’s image and diminish its global standing? Government officials and some pundits seem to think so, going by how they responded in recent months to the environmental group Greenpeace and to a BBC documentary about rape in India.
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 2, Block D:  LouAnn Hammond, DrivingtheNation.com, in re: Automobiles. China.
Hour Three
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Hillary Clinton hires research director to tell personal story  Another piece of Hillary Clinton's campaign-in-waiting is falling into place with the addition . . .  /  Hillary Clinton aides head to Iowa and New Hampshire  /  Top political aides to Hillary Clinton making NH, Iowa swings / Kasich, Fiorina, Rubio (1 of 2)
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Monica Crowley, Fox, & Washington Times Online opinion editor; in re:  Hillary Clinton hires research director to tell personal story  Another piece of Hillary Clinton's campaign-in-waiting is falling into place with the addition . . .  /  Hillary Clinton aides head to Iowa and New Hampshire  /  Top political aides to Hillary Clinton making NH, Iowa swings / Kasich, Fiorina, Rubio (2 of 2)
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block C: Steven Greenhouse, NYT, in re: Movement to Increase McDonald’s Minimum Wage Broadens Its Tactics  Unions in the United States and elsewhere are increasing pressure on the fast-food giant by protesting its corporate practices to . . . 
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 3, Block D:   Charles Bausman, Russia Insider, in re: US's Refusal to See Reality Stokes the Flames of Ukraine's Civil War OPINION 
Hour Four
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block A:  Bill McGurn, WSJ, in re: Bring on the Guest Workers  America pays when we make it harder for temporary-visa seekers and their employers.
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block B:  Henry I Miller, M.D., Hoover & Forbes.com, in re:  "How Feckless Bureaucrats Threaten the Development of Safer Foods."
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block C:  Amber Boydstun, political scientist at the University of California, Davis; from her recent book, Making the News: Politics, the Media, and Agenda Setting. University of Chicago;  in re: THIS POLI-SCI THEORY EXPLAINS WHY INDIANA'S "RELIGIOUS FREEDOM" LAW EXPLODED IN MIKE PENCE'S FACE The meteorology of a modern media storm  On Monday night, the front page of the next day’s Indianapolis Star began rocketing across Twitter: it bore a blaring, all-caps headline demanding that Indiana Governor Mike Pence “FIX THIS NOW,” meaning the state’s new “religious freedom” law that had touched off a national furor by allowing businesses to discriminate against gays and lesbians. The Star’s extraordinary front page was the culmination of a wave of media attention that built with astonishing speed and force. Understandably, many people wondered why, since, as Pence strained to point out during his bludgeoning by George Stephanopoulos on Sunday, other states have similar laws.
Wednesday  1 April 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Problems for Rosetta during its most recent fly-by of Comet 67P/C-G During its most recent close fly-by of Comet 67P/C-G Rosetta had a number of issues that caused the spacecraft to go into safe mode. During the most recent flyby, a number of issues were reported, starting with the primary star tracker encountering difficulties in locking on to stars on the way in towards closest approach. Attempts were made to regain tracking capabilities, but there was too much background noise due to activity close to the comet nucleus: hundreds of ‘false stars’ [from comet debris] were registered and it took almost 24 hours before tracking was properly re-established.
In the meantime, a spacecraft attitude error had built up, resulting in the high gain antenna off-pointing from the Earth. Indeed, a significant drop in the radio signal received by ground stations on Earth was registered. Following recovery of the star tracker system, the off-pointing was immediately automatically corrected and the operations team subsequently saw a return to a full strength signal from the spacecraft.
However, issues with false stars were still occurring. Cross comparisons with other navigation mechanisms showed inconsistencies with the star trackers and some on board reconfigurations occurred. While attempting to reconfigure those, the same error occurred again leading this time to an automatic safe mode on Sunday afternoon. Safe modes occur when certain spacecraft parameters fall out of their normal operating ranges and the spacecraft automatically takes measures to preserve its safety. This also includes switching off the science instruments to protect them.  Rosetta is operating nominally now, but these issues are going to get more serious in the coming months, as the comet gets more active. Rosetta’s engineering team is going to have to come up with a method for the spacecraft’s star trackers to distinguish between stars and the debris in the comet’s coma. If they don’t it is likely that they will have to reduce the close fly-bys significantly.
 
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