Photo, left:   The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP; Turkish: Trans-Anadolu Doğalgaz Boru Hattı) is a natural gas pipeline from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Turkey to Europe. It will be a central part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which will connect the giant Shah Deniz gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe through the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP), TANAP and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).
This project is of strategic importance for both Azerbaijan and Turkey. It will allow first Azerbaijani gas exports to Europe, beyond Turkey. It will also strengthen the role of Turkey as a regional energy hub.  Construction of the pipeline began formally in March 2015 and is expected to be completed in 2018.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 1, Block A:  David Malpass, Encima Globalnand Trump camaign, in re: The corporate tax rate, alone, will generate an economic revival.  Trillions of dollars over time.  S corps.   See studies from AEI, and Heritage, and work by Michael Boskin and Martin Feldstein biggest beneficiaries of cutting corp tax is the middle-income wage earners, and _, and third are shareholders.  We’ve been on a <2% baseline for years; I think it can be raised to 4 or 5%.  Coincides with CBO: over $6 trillion of lower budget deficits because of incentives to works, save, invest.
Four principal reforms announces by Trump in his speech to th Economic Club of Detroit.: energy, tax, regulatory and trade reform: giant opportunity to get more growth in wages. Today: negative productivity growth. Too many regulations. So less work accomplished,.  Trump announced intention to impose a temporary regulatory moratorium This White House has added thousands of regulations, more to come.  Need ot get the Cabinet involved.  They manage a giant federal staff; can find regs that don’t add to growth.  Get the economy going, wages up, more people working, bring down taxes.  Not incidentally, many of these regulations are unconstitutional.  Many of these regs have been financed without Congressional authorization.  Tenth Amendment: govt may not do what’s not specified Constitutionally, and other parts are reserved to the states and the people. In First Amendment, court challenge and a correction, but with Tenth, we really don't do enough.
Trump, Clinton Spar on Economic Plans   Donald Trump blasted Hillary Clinton in an economic-policy speech that sought to pick off some of her supporters, while the Democratic nominee dismissed her rival’s plans as a repackaging of old GOP ideas. Where Clinton, Trump Stand on Wall Street ;  Fact-Checking Trump’s Speech ;  Latest Polls | Electoral Map Scenarios  ;  Where Clinton, Trump Stand on Wall Street
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 1, Block B:  David Malpass, Encima Global, in re: Corporate taxes – well done. Personal taxes: moved from three categories to Kevin Brady’s plan: go with the 33% (“an olive branch; a brilliant manoeuver”) if GOP carries all houses, could get a powerful tax reform bill by March.  Note low bond yields (high prices) – will unwind.  In 2003-4-5, we say high bond yields.  Bond rates rise in response to potential pro-growth plans.  In the 90s. at 5%.  LK: I call this a pro-growth program.  He also wants education reform.  So far, all we've heard from Clinton is a bunch of big tax hikes, incl on small business.  We're perilously close to recession. How to fix?  Lower taxes, reduce spending. Trump’s speech was well received: more growth, jobs, people into labor sector.  
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 1, Block C: Edward Paul Lazear, Hoover via Wall Street Journal; past chairman of Council of Economic Advisors; in re: Fed is again speaking of a September hike. Is that politicizing the Fed to move in an election cycle?  Cd be yes either way: no move wd help the Dems; an increase wd help the GOP. If you look at the history of the Fed for the past few years, they talk about a hike then keep putting it off: Brexit, et al.  All the craziness of zirp/nirp: cd have raised rates in mid-2012 – 4% growth, a great opening. Again in 2014.  The Taylor Rule could be intact had they taken action four then two years ago. Right; Taylor, or Milton Friedman;, or just historic precedent.  Recovery began in June 2009, shd have raised by summer 2011. They waited so not only are they off the Taylor Rule or the Friedman Rule—they’re of the Fed rule.   . . . They might raise a quarter in September . . . These Reserve Bank presidents bounce around and all the time.  Proliferation of Ph.D. econometric models:  destroying the Fed- they're 100% wrong all the time: no small businessmen, no farmer, no normal people.  Level the Fed! Start again!  They have no idea what a correct interest rate is.  Clean house.  /OK, let's level the building, In 2017: rate hikes to midterm and beyond? / If we’re at a peak, can't raise rates right now – they're ’way behind the curve. / What Jon Hilsenrath shd say: Burn the econometric models and never use them again.   It's a fiscal problem, and we need to slash corporate tax rates.  / There are things to do for short-term growth: that played out in 2009.  For long-term growth: the kinds of taxes we've seen, incr taxes debt; restricting trade – all the wrong things to do.  No one thinks that monetary policy can create growth, Fed can create money, cannot create jobs”—Milton Friedman, 60years ago. And leave the lovely bldg.; just repopulate it.  Slashing bz taxes and regs will almost immed trigger a new boom. The mkt interest rates will rise and then the Fed shd follow the mkt rates up, in that order. If they do it backward we’ll all be in deep yoghurt.  Do not tax capital!
The Fed Missed Its Chance. Now What? The business cycle is peaking, with no interest-rate increase. The central bank has blown it. Still, better late than never
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 1, Block D: Brett Arends. A]Market Watch, in re: Trump’s speech in Detroit and Kevin Brady’s proposals.  In theory: a lot good of his plans on taxes; his plans are too regressive for my taste, but he personal income tax system and corp taxes are crazy and arcane, Need fewer brackets, broadened tax base, fewer loopholes.-  all wd be great.  I do no favor getting rid of the inheritance tax. The Tax Fdn in DC said; when you score it dynamically, the huge cost of Trumps tax cuts wd largely pay for themselves (a heroic set of assumptions); but the key principals are  simplifying the tax code, being pro-growth, eliminating negative incentives – esp US corps having to park trillions overseas, often in T Bills!  NYT incorrectly reported; it is true that Kevin Brady’s plan is revenue-neutral.  . . .  When you lower tax rats, work productivity goes up and you recoup the funds – 60% for investment and 40% for middle-income people.  When you take growth up to 4% you bring in abt $6 trillion.  Laffer Curve: cap gains tax  lower rate, revenues go up, and the opposite.  –oops it depends where you start. This is the 50th anniversary of the Beatles’s “Tax Man” – when rates were 95%. 
 
Hour Two
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:  Trump & Russia Denounced.  Russia & Turkey Announced. In Europe, the Erdogan-Putin rapprochement has been seen as an attempt by the Turkish leader to demonstrate that Russia can be an alternative to the European Union, which has been critical of his handling of the coup aftermath.
“In the long term, however, their interests don’t converge at all, especially on Syria, but also on economy and energy,” said one senior EU official. “That’s why it’s important we keep our channels to Ankara open.”
A second EU official described Mr. Erdogan’s visit to Moscow as a “demonstration of power that seems more than it is.” Officials said that three-quarters of the foreign direct investment in Turkey comes from EU countries.
EU-Turkey relations have soured over the past weeks, since Mr. Erdogan’s crackdown and call to introduce the death penalty, a move that would halt Turkey’s EU membership bid.
On Monday, Mr. Erdogan took to French newspaper Le Monde to denounce what he described as an “unacceptable” reaction by European leaders to the coup attempt, as opposed to Mr. Putin, who didn’t criticize him for cracking down on dissidents and coup plotters.
The Turkish leader also threatened to scrap a migration deal with the EU—which lets the EU return migrants who have crossed illegally to Europe from Turkish shores—if Turkish citizens aren’t granted visa-free travel to the European bloc. That prospect that is on hold as long as Turkey’s antiterror laws allow it to keep peaceful government critics behind bars on terrorism charges.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-and-erdogan-meet-to-restore-ties-after-jet-shot-down-1470747139  ; http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/world/europe/putin-erdogan-russia-turk...
“Sochi was corrupted,” he continued, referring to the Russian city that hosted the 2014 Winter Games. “Russia had state-sponsored doping, and the International Olympic Committee caved in, unlike the International Paralympic Committee.”
The I.O.C. did not apply a blanket ban on Russian athletes for the Rio Games after the release of a damning report by the World Anti-Doping Agency; the Paralympic committee did bar the Russians from this year’s Paralympics, which begin next month. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/10/sports/olympics/doping-swimming-russia-lilly-king-yulia-efimova.html
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: speculation on Turkey’s leaving NATO. Nat gas through the Black Sea and into Europe. Syria conflict. Fighting terrorism. WEU immigration deal – might be busted: his agreement to keep refugees streaming in might just cease (he’s threatening this).   (2 of 4)
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); (3 of 4)
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); (4 of 4)
 
Hour Three
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 3, Block A:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, & Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and The Hill, in re: A new NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey found McGinty leading Toomey 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters. The same poll had McGinty up by 3 points last month.
The Pennsylvania Senate seat will be one of the most closely watched this cycle and could be pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate next year.
Democrats need a gain of five seats — or four seats they keep control of the White House — to regain the upper chamber's majority.
The 2016 cycle is proving to be a challenging one for Senate Republicans, who must defend 24 seats while Democrats only defend 10.  http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/290921-poll-toomey-trai...
The Clinton Effect: How Katie McGinty gained ground on Sen. Pat ...   Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) into essentially a dead heat. The results, after a stretch in which Toomey had no obvious missteps and McGinty had no ...   Poll: Toomey trails Dem by 4 points in Pennsylvania Senate race
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 3, Block B:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, & Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and The Hill, in re:
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 3, Block C:   James Taranto, WSJ, in re: Donald Trump were the stock market, you might say he was in the midst of a full-blown panic. After briefly albeit narrowly leading Hillary Clinton last month, he has tottered to a 7.5-point deficit in the Real Clear Politics average. Some post-convention polls have Mrs. Clinton up by double digits, and some give her a total greater than or equal to 50%. Since the election is now effectively over, we’ll end this column here. See you on Nov. 9.
Just kidding—we don’t get that much vacation time, and we wouldn’t use it if we did. But rather than give you a conventional political analysis, we’re going to look at Trump’s predicament in terms of behavioral economics. First, a recap of the relevant ideas, from a 2013 column. This is a quote from “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” in which Daniel Kahneman explains the idea of loss aversion.  http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-panic-1470767016?tesla=y
 
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 3, Block D:
Sitting in the saddle can still be a bumpy ride, but things got a lot smoother nearly 12 centuries ago, according to a new study. A single genetic mutation arising in the medieval United Kingdom and Iceland gave horses their ability to “amble,” or walk with a relatively smooth, four-beat rhythm versus a bumpier, more erratic pattern, researchers write today in Current Biology. Scientists first detected a mutation in the gene DMRT3, which influences limb movements, in all ambling horses in 2012, but they weren’t sure how it changed the horses’ gait. In the new study, researchers extracted DNA from the bones of 90 ancient horses that lived as far back as 3500 B.C.E., to trace the rise of the mutation to roughly 850–900 C.E. The scientists speculate that Vikings (pictured above) brought horses from the United Kingdom to Iceland and bred them together around this time and then disseminated those horses to mainland Europe. Studies in mice appear to suggest that the DMRT3 mutation affects the development of the spinal cord and allows longer strides. Riders’ preference for the comfortable rides of ambling horses helped the mutation quickly spread to horses worldwide, the team speculates.  http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/08/mutation-made-it-easier-ride-hors...
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 4, Block A:  Northern Armageddon: The Battle of the Plains of Abraham and the Making of the American Revolution by D. Peter MacLeod Part II of II; segment 5 of 8.   https://www.amazon.com/Northern-Armageddon-Abraham-American-Revolution/dp/0307269892/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470700686&sr=1-1
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 4, Block B:  Northern Armageddon: The Battle of the Plains of Abraham and the Making of the American Revolution by D. Peter MacLeod Part II of II; segment 6 of 8.
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 4, Block C: Northern Armageddon: The Battle of the Plains of Abraham and the Making of the American Revolution by D. Peter MacLeod Part II of II; segment 7 of 8.
Tuesday  9 August  2016   / Hour 4, Block D: Northern Armageddon: The Battle of the Plains of Abraham and the Making of the American Revolution by D. Peter MacLeod Part II of II; segment 8 of 8.
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