The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 7 January 2020

Air Date: 
January 07, 2020

 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Hour One
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 1, Block A:  Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover in re: Iran fired missiles out of Iran into Iraqi US bases at 1:30 AM local time.  An IranPress handout, published by Reuters, is the local information and propaganda that we have on the topic.
       Is the Trump Adm trying to find an exit, or change our posture n the Middle East?  Trying to collapse all the reasons we’ve been there for 70 years down to a smaller footprint. Those dependent on Middle Eastern oil are primarily China and the EU.  Why do we still have troops there? We don't want the oil wealth to accumulate in hands that will create a nuclear bomb; and we don't want to create a platform for the likes of Black September, then al Q and ISIS.
Soleimani had one great gift: he understood the Obama Administration  . . . China takes about 40% of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 1, Block B:   Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover in re:  The missing impeachment. The still-unknowns of Russiagate, esp a man named Brennan. The FBI declared that 31 July 2016 was the opening of Crossfire Hurricane. The IG endorses the notion that the FBI did [nothing significant relevant] before that. However, . . . ’way back to the summer of and maybe the spring of 2016.  Papadopoulos; and Alexander Downer, who has Five Eyes relationships. Who was in charge/paying for all this before 31 July 2016? ___ Was very canny in using US intell to skirt US law. Had a lot to do with the rise of Christopher Steele and the seeding of that document [among the press].  He’s done a lot of damage, but not paid any account.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 1, Block C:   Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re:    Joe Biden, the Democrats, and foreign policy in light of the Iranian missiles that hit al Assad air base in Iraq.  Democrats can't even credit Trump enough to condemn Soleimani as a bad guy; looks like a 3o- to 40-states loss in November.  Is Bernie’s campaign aware that he’s not prepared for foreign policy analysis?  He won’t move to the middle in an election; he’s been DSoc for 40 years.   Amy Klobuchar has emerged as an alternative to an alternative; she talks a leftie game but is attracted to centrism. She can't break away from the crown because she’s not allowed to ay that Trump did the world a favor by killing Soleimani. The US military achieved a remarkable feat in its successful missile.    Buttagieg – served in military but a little too green.   Biden tried to persuade Obama not to take out bin Laden; he’s constantly on the wrong side of history, incl both Iraq wars.  The billionaires: Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg.  Mike Bloomberg could shine with his resume. Where’s impeachment?  Stuck in Nancy Pelosi’s drawer.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 1, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ, in re:  Trade with China: we always assumed China was operating from a position of economic strength.  However,  in a lot of matters it’s weak:  the population is ageing; the working-age proportion is shrinking, which will have big implications for the “factory to the world.”  Is China ready to become a net importer? I’m not sure it is.  . . .  The problem with China is that it's not set up to operate  in the global environment: it needs to make its currency convertible, open financial markets to attract capital,  and reform corporate governance.  A main reason that the US attracts investments to the enormous degree that it does is that we operate under the rule of law.  To attract global capital, need to make investors comfortable, yet Xi Jinping seems to be working in the opposite direction.  Will have to surrender a lot of political control, which will let their own citizens send capital overseas. Otherwise, China is in for a really rocky ride.  Japan did make this transition.
Hour Two
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 2, Block A:  Bill Roggio, LongWarJournal & FDD, @BillRoggio , in re:  Fifteen ballistic missiles that Iran just fired at al Assad US airbase in Iraq. “Missile fired” says Iran.  How many, effectiveness, range, reason?  Two targets; Erbil (in the north; Kurdish; possibly against the US consulate there) and the other, west of Baghdad, and Iraqi base. Fired at 1:30 AM Baghdad time.  It’s now sun-up in theatre. What damage?
The Pentagon did confirm more than dozen missiles were launched from Iran; Iran says 30 missiles in two waves.   Notable that they were to a Sunni province and against Kurds.  No report of an American death; may be Iraqi casualties.  Doing battlefield damages assessments at present. Likely the Fatah short-range missile, 300 km, tracks with targetting.  Iran released a video of dots that fly straight up in the air.   Solid fuel?  From Russia?  Like pulling a toy gun on a cop – expect an overwhelming response.  Looks more like a provocation than an attack. They’re politically constrained inside Iraq. They’re not actually firing ballistic missiles?  Did use a battlefield missile.   Fog or war – could even have been a rogue commander.  We’ll find out how many parts came from China, Germany, the US.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 2, Block B:  Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re: Fog of war in Iraq and Iran. We’ re told hat he two target were Erbil, and an Iraqi airbase in Anbar Province, Within hours of a failed funeral procession in Iran, as fifty people were trampled to death. Bodies floating down rivers, having been tortured, 
       Michael says it looked like a rent-a-mob. Iran is in open revolt; want the regime to exit.  From Mashhad to Teheran to the Indian border, you’ll see that same faces at each demo. The Italian Communist party used to do the same thing. Khamenei is ageing and ill; was Soleimani a potential successor?  Some people wanted that; other wanted different candidates. There was going to be a Hell of a succession fight.   There are 80 million Iranians; probably 70 million want the regime gone.. Khamenei has been so bloodthirsty recently that it’s hard to imagine a peaceful transition.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 2, Block C:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re:  Bolivia. Mexican embassy in La Paz. Morales as president for many too many years; fled to Mexico for asylum; but Mexico filed an indictment  against him for drugs trafficking.  Associates accused of multiple crimes, incl terrorism; nine of them still in Spanish embassy. Morales now in Argentina.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 2, Block D:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re: Venezuela
 
Hour Three
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 3, Block A:  Andrew C McCarthy, Ball of Collusion; and Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes; in re:  Soleimani, the targetted killing.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 3, Block B:  Andrew C McCarthy, Ball of Collusion; and Thaddeus McCotter, WJR, the Great Voice of the Great Lakes; in re:   
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 3, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com, in re:    SpaceX & Chinese missiles; plus ISS blood clots.
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 3, Block D:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com, in re:   Exoplanets
 
Hour Four
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 4, Block A:  Abbas Milani, Hoover, in re:  The death of Soleimani, called “the head of the snake,” is complicated to Iranian people, both to those in revolt and to the get-along-to-go-along. He helped fight Iraq in 1988, and helped fight ISIS so was seen both as a devil and as Napoleonic-mystic patriot.   Recall that the regime killed hundreds of demonstrators a few months ago. Today the regime threatened anyone who stood apart from the Khamenei line.  He caused the deaths of thousands of Syrian, Lebanese, Afghans, Yemenis, and more
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 4, Block B:  Amos N. Guiora, Israeli-American professor, S. J. Quinney College of Law, University of Utah, specializing in counterterrorism and drone attacks; in re: The IDF officer called in the middle of the night to confer about a proposed targetted killing of a bad actor: ‘twas a legal decision as well as one of the whole government. 
       If there was an imminent attack coming from Soleimani, [that’s one thing], but it’s hard for us to discern if there was or not. However, the targeting killing . . .  Soleimani was a general in another state’s army, so the US killed a representative of another sovereign and thus could be considered by Iran to be an act of war— different from Osama bin Laden.  Correct that success cannot be assessed immediately, but policymakers need to consider these factors.  I reject the comparison of Trump’s hit on Soleimani with Obama’s hit on bin Laden.  https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2020/01/06/amos-n-guiora-we-ha... +     Legitimate Target: A Criteria-Based Approach to Targeted Killing
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 4, Block C:  
Tuesday 7 January 2020 / Hour 4, Block D: