JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Hour One
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block A:  Elizabeth Peek, TheHill and Fox News; in re:   The markets search for an exit in the time of the virus.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block B:  Elizabeth Peek, TheHill and Fox News; in re: Biden unenthusiasm in the time of the virus.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block C:   Joseph Sternberg, WSJ editorial board, in London; in re:   the UK doesn't have an automatic succession plan.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 1, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ editorial board, in London; in re:  London social-distancing dog walking in the time of the virus.
 
Hour Two
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin;  in re:   Russia has over 6,000 positive reports of the virus.  Sergey Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow and Putin’s former chief of staff, has used the Italian restrictions in Moscow.  Across eleven times zones, a one-size-fits-all strategy wouldn’t work.  NPR publishes an article on Ukraine, encouraging collegiality beginning with the virus. People have been told to self-isolate, avoid areas of congregations. Those who don't live near a park have to walk their poor little dogs in circles within a hundred-yard radius of their front door.  The annual May 9 celebration of WWII victory may be cancelled or delayed.  What we see globally is the emergence of big-city mayors.  This is in fact the system that Putin set up.  In Russia, political leadership has to defer to expert opinion.  Widely-asked question: do authoritarian systems have an advantage in these crises?  Russia is, like the US, a federal system.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block B:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin;  in re: Back in the 1990s crisis of the Soviet system, Yeltsin was head of the Moscow [organization; was not mayor]; today, people are deferential to Putin, and even his opponents can’t imagine an alternative right now. Analogy between Putin and FDR.  Russian consensus is that Roosevelt stayed because of a national crisis, and Putin’s situation is comparable. This is Putin’s great test.  When he arrived, the provinces weren’t paying taxes and weren’t obeying federal laws, and the North Caucasus was in open revolt. Before the virus, the country was full of discussion of what would happen when Putin termed out.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin;  in re:  Although Russia has aspects of authoritarianism, it isn’t that to the degree of having no free press. Lots of discussion of succession. Were that to present itself, the provincial governors, the power brokers, would decide. Leading candidate right now is Sergey Sobyanin, who’s significantly cleaned the city, built more ring roads (much needed), so Moscow has become an appealing European city.  The Security Council includes major governors and major federal leaders. Not currently in constitution; were it to be formalized, the head of the National Security Council would automatic become national leader.  Discussion: the parliament (Duma) choose the PM. We’ll probably see major changes that wouldn't have occurred without the virus.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 2, Block D:  Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; American Committee for East-West Accord; author: War with Russia?; Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re:  Is there a moment for rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine? Does this epidemic change the political equation?  Trump could play an important role: He could say, “I strongly support the détente overtures between Kiev and Moscow.”   Test of leadership for Putin, Trump, Zelensky.  Further, this is a good moment for détente between Russia and the US.
 
Hour Three
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block A:  Bill Whalen, Hoover Area 45 podcast, in re:  Joe Biden has declared that he’ll choose a female running mate.   The first female to be so nominated was in 1984: Geraldine Ferraro.  Any candidate in his eighties while president has to think of succession; Amy Klobuchar? Kamela Harris? Tulsi Gabbard?
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block B:  Captain Christopher Sharman, USN and Hoover, RealClearDefense, in re:  The bogus islands China has created, claimed, and then fortified with weapons systems. Goal is to claim 95% of the South China Sea.  Includes the Spratley Islands; tries to force many other nations to relinquish their own historical claims.   February 17: A Chinese warplane targeted an American aircraft with a laser.  China becomes ever more brazen.   Also, aggression against Taiwan. Deploys its military in overtly provocative ways; now flying over the center line between Mainland and Taiwan, which is dangerous. A Chinese coast guard vessel sank a Vietnamese vessel several days ago. China is on offense now, claiming worldwide to be effective against the Wuhan virus. Recall that the CCP allowed Wuhan to disperse millions around the world during the lunar New Year, thereby spreading the illness.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block C:  Lorenzo Fiori, managing director of  Fondazione Ansaldo, based in Genoa; in re: Italy seems no longer to be at the apex.  Lombardia is an area of northern Italy around Milan, with a high population. We account for 12 or 14 million people. Nearby mountains.  Commercial center and railroad crossroads, including to Austria and France. Now closed down.  Region is economically powerful. Per capita income is higher than anywhere else in Europe. We export a lot of our manufacture — we’re “the real economy.” Entering phase three, to a sort of gradual normality. Three elements: at least 50% of virus cases are asymptomatic, but can infect others. Those who cannot work stay home; those who can, go to work.  Those over 65 are more prone to get infected, need very intensive therapy, of course.  Looking forward to a serological test. Also introduce Korean and Chinese ways . . .   And to offer the possibility to get infected again?  Into a special quarantine.
Magazine named Civiltà delle Macchine.  Antologia di una rivista tecnico-culturale (1953-1958)
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 3, Block D:  Michael Auslin, Hoover, and The Spectator, in re: It’s business as usual in the South China Sea, in the increasingly tense competition with China. This dominated the last years of president Obama’s administration and continues; we haven’t figured out how to regain ground from militarized [bogus] island. China just rammed and san a Vietnamese ship. A real rupture of relations could [at least] have spillover effects. Pres Trump has pushed China as hard as can be, but always endeavored to get a [reasonably amiable] deal. The free and open Indo-Pacific. Global commons.  The competition will not go away.  First and Second Island Chains. One Belt/One Road.   Despite our doing a lot more with Taiwan, it hasn’t much shifted the balance of power.  Because of our inattention, China has gained ground and power regionally.  Today are shutting down parts of Henan, and maybe all of Guangdong Province,  We need to continue thinking geopolitically.
 
Hour Four
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block A:  Russell Berman, Hoover, in re: Italians were te first Europeans to sign on to the Belt and Road Initiative; they’ll have to decide. Germans reluctant to upset Chinese, vide: with Huawei. Sinization is the rise of China in the global economy.  Entry of China as is, without reforms, in the world economic system. When Nixon and Kissinger invited them, no requests; Clinton: no discussion of human rights; not asked to play by the rules everyone else favors.  If China can’t reform significantly, we need to pursue a policy of extrication.
Yes, there is a risk of the breakup of the EU. If it understood Brexit and acknowledged the inflexibility of Brussels, then it’d have a future. If it maintains its course of centralization, it’ll force out the peripheral nations, including Italy and Hungary.  The EU is a very fragile structure, and its successor countries will be more  susceptible to Russia and China. Unfortunately, we have no [robust] response. 
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block B:  John Tamny, RealClearMarkets, FreedomWorks vice-president, and Toreador Research and Trading; in re: Laisser-faire.  Laffer Curve.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block C:   Joseph Sternberg, WSJ editorial board, in London; in re:   the UK doesn't have an automatic succession plan.
Tuesday 7 April 2020 / Hour 4, Block D:  Joseph Sternberg, WSJ editorial board, in London; in re: