Tuesday 3 May 2016
Photo, left: 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio. Steve Moore, Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Institute for Economic Freedom and Opportunity, Heritage Foundation.
Hour One
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Steve Moore, in re: Cruz suspends his campaign; this speaks well of his character: he ran a tough campaign and has made the wise and gallant decision. Trump has a lot of good ideas, needs to underline his economic policy and his national security policy. Yes, Trump is not a favorite of women; in fact, many GOP women are intending simply not to vote. Need to clear that up.
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Steve Moore, in re: JB: Trump speaks against China, Japan, Canada and Mexico. China is a hostile power; the other three are not. LK: However, Mexico is an uncertain ally – relations wax and wane. Of the three, only Canada plays by the rules; Trump says our wage-earners deserves some help. I’m hopeful about Trump’s “negotiating” stance. SM: A lot of Americans think that Pres Obama is not in favor of America as his primary interest – the rest of the world is laughing at us. I also am a free-trader. But I’m glad that Trump will negotiate in a tough way. I disagree about Mexico: we’ve got to have free trade with Mexico. LK: Voters want a strong person who puts America first. Let’s negotiate bilaterally if necessary – the WTO is big mistake – Trump as president must himself sit at the table to negotiate. Mexico could do a lot more on drugs, and on legal immigration. SM: Hillary went to a cola-mining town and dismissively, arrogantly, said, “Oh, we’ll just replace all the mining jobs with green-energy jobs.” How cruel – these are people out of work and down on their luck! LK: Trump is a great pro-energy hawk. JB: Trump alienate women; his only chance is to talk pocketbook issues. LK: He alienated people of color.
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Michael Jay Boskin is T. M. Friedman Professor of Economics & Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution; also Boskin & Co. CEO; in re: Brexit. 1. Regain greater sovereignty – even to the point of some of one’s own courts can be overruled by the EU Commission. 2. A financial cost: currently ½% of British GDP; cd grow if hrere were a bigger European contribution to bailouts of some of the highl0-indebted periphery nations. 3 A giant Customs Union Free trade – EU has $17 trillion, a huge economic bloc. Forty-five per cent of Britain‘s trade is with the EU’ could sign individual bilateral treaties (as Switzerland has); could follow Norway’s lead; or go their own way. Could be a tremendous free-trade nation; any trade lost with EU cold be made up with enhanced trade elsewhere - over time.
Britain has been the US’s closest ally; Brexit proponents favor independence economically and legally. LK: Unfortunately, the present terrorist threat militates against unchecked transit.
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Case for Brexit: could redo economic relations, weather any short term disjunctions; have greater sovereignty, fewer regulations and restrictions. Control own border by their own lights – incl welfare, ag policy, etc. Case for staying: trade advantages, could encourage EU to change over time and then if needed exit later.
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Britain has gone its own way on foreign policy and economics; if Britain leaves, probably others will, too, destabilizing the whole shebang. LK: Britain has done an excellent job of lowering corporate tax rate – London is more or less the global hub of financial transactions. However, I do not believe that England is part of Europe – think of Magna Carta vs the French Napoleonic Code; and virtually no property right sin Europe, Even the English language is a major bond. JB: The Scottish Natl Party says the SNP will go forward with a new devolution vote if Brexit occurs _ that’d mean that if Britain lave Europe, Scotland leave Britain.
MB: . . . forex, derivatives, et al., would be at some risk under Brexit: some of that is on the Continent and could be at risk. SM: What's your call? MB: I say, hang on for a while, hold my nose and stay for the moment. SM: I don't want Britain to catch the Euro disease. LK: I’ll go with Boskin – but remember Magna Carta – people are entitles d to the fruits of their labor. JB: We’ll make Great Britain great again! [smile
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Steve Moore, in re: The presumptive nominee’s economic policies: the Trump tax plan. What is it? LK: Most attractive is his virtually radical tax-decrease plan – from 40% down to 15%; get rid of a lot of corporate crony loopholes, …. The 15% applies to large C corps as well as the small S corps. Trillions of investment dollars will flow into the US. Personal income tax: from 40% to 25%; reduce the brackets fro 6 to 3 . . . a very pro-growth, supply-side program. SM: It does still costs too much – trillions of lost revenues, which will be partially compensated by growth. Cut spending: entitlements. Need govt spending reduction plan Also: contrast this with Hillary, who wants trot raise tax on everything, Even a higher top income tax – that is austerity economics. Crux of the campaign. Put 1%higher growth on GDP, reduce deficit by ________. Trump will make jobs and growth central. LK: You gotta sell this stuff! This will benefit the most the middle class! A tax cut, lower prices.
Hour Two
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; and David M Drucker, Washington Examiner Senior Congressional correspondent; John Fund, NRO, in re: Ted Cruz is Mr Conservative as he returns to the Senate. Doe he have a bright future? --He underestimated Donald Trump and slipstreamed behind him for months, said nothing, Then changed into an attack dog, which also failed. What he said basically is, If you're a real conservative you don't need me (oops). He ran a very well-managed campaign, but goes back to the Senate as a lonely figure who failed the party of Reagan when they needed him. . . . Trump’s inventive [version of] populism: Not as popular as he thought. Have nominated the least-conservative Republican in generations. Not even half as much as Romney is. . . . Trump reiterated his opposition to NAFTA, so is protectionist & doesn't believe we can compete on a level playing field. Has spoken of a trade war with China and Vietnam; wants to build a wall, but noting on sensible immigration freeform He admires strongmen like Putin and lack a coherent foreign policy at a dangerous moment. Americans are sick of the PC crowd, and being told they're racist and being divided by class; will take a big leap in the dark. Will we go into the campaign divided? For the moment, yes. After a tough primary we're always divided and then always come together. The difference here is that Reagan and Bush were essentially playing n the same team; today, not. One of the continuing criticisms is that Trump is truly not fit for the presidency. Some GOP members think that Trump is even worse than Hillary Clinton Finally, what’s Kasich about? About winning Ohio. Become a fanciful campaign after Cruz drops out, Did Kasich have a vision shared by anyone in the Party? Beats me. Tried to figure out what his deal is, haven't. Maybe he ;s simply got nuthin’ to lose. He’s testy; he trails even Rubio in delegates.
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re: Donald Trump is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. His unusual candidacy put the GOP majority at risk. NH, PA, OH, IL, WI. NV. AZ – all those seats would have been a struggle in any event; will it now lose the majority? What do you do if you're running for e-elect with Trump at he top of the ticket? McCain and Johnson not going to the convention – want nothing to do with the Trump acceptance speech. Paradox. Willkie helped no one in the Senate re-elect; an unknown at he top of the ticket is not a natural benefit to the Senators. What do they say? . . . What is the prospect of winning? Unh, voters don't spit their tickets any more – vote straight down. Dems have 88 Ho0use seats, need to pick up 30; GOP is the reverse. Single career women as voters. Dems have to run the tables, and run crazy in seats that lean Republican. I hear that McCarthy anticipated this; started raising money to protect those Congressmen. GOP start wit 203 safe seats, nut with Trump as nominee we don't know how much hemorrhaging.
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Satellite co SES, a main supporter of SpaceX & Falcon 9, have bought O3B company, global internet provision. / Money for space The competition heats up: Three stories today about investors putting money into different space related business ventures are worth consolidating into one post, as they all indicate the same thing.
▪ SES to Take Control of O3b Networks
▪ World View lands $15 million Series B to bring new stratosphere-flying platform to life
▪ SpaceVR Raises $1.25 Million Seed Round, Led by Shanda Group, to Launch Virtual Reality Camera Satellites into Space
The first story involves a takeover by SES of the O3b satellite constellation that provides internet service globally. They already have 12 satellites in orbit, and have plans to launch 8 more by 2019. A partial list of their customers (Digicel Pacific, Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, American Samoa Telecom, Speedcast, Rignet, Bharti International (Airtel), Timor Telecom, CNT Ecuador, Entel Chile and NOAA) illustrates the solidity of the company’s success, which is also why SES is spending $20 million to own it.
In the second two stories we find investment capital being committed for two different and unusual space-tourism-related companies. World View plans to launch high altitude balloons with passengers, taking them up 20 to 30 miles for a several hour journey on the edge of space. That they have secured an additional $15 million in investment even as their deal with the city of Tucson is being challenged in court indicates the confidence the investors have in their business.
SpaceVR is even more interesting. They plan to launch smallsats with cameras providing a 360 degree view, and link them to virtual reality headsets here on Earth. Consumers will then be able to experience being in space, without actually going. Though the press release does not specific how the product will be sold, it suggests that they are aiming for the education and museum market.
All three stories prove that the modern investment community, normally very adverse to high risk endeavors, is increasingly finding that the financial benefits of space travel and anything related to it are worth the financial risks. This fact can only lead to good things for the eventual development and exploration of space.
Moreover, the third story once again demonstrates the value of reducing the cost to get into orbit. SpaceVR’s idea is a very good one, but it couldn’t have happened before SpaceX forced a reduction in launch prices. Beforehand, no one could have afforded to buy the product because of the high cost to launch the satellites. Now, because the launch price is affordable, it can be marketed at a realistic price.
In other words, lower the price, and you increase the number of customers able to buy your product. I expect the rocket business to boom in the coming years.
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: Why Russian aerospace will not compete The fallout from the scrub and one day delay of the first launch at Vostochny, while Vladimir Putin was there and watching, has generated an investigation and the suspension of one designer. The official goal of the commission was to find causes of the failed launch attempt and to check the completeness of tests leading to the incident.
However given a minor technical impact of the delay, the investigation likely had the primarily political nature, namely it was aimed to demonstrate to the Kremlin that the industry problems were being dealt with. Moreover, Rogozin also made a decision during the work of the commission to suspend the responsibilities of Leonid Shalimov, the designer general at NPO Avtomatika, which supplied the hardware allegedly responsible for the incident. Rogozin summoned Shalimov to Moscow on May 6, apparently to present the results of the investigation. [emphasis mine]
When you develop any new system or cutting edge technology, things are certain to go wrong. This is the one certainty that I will admit to and gladly embrace, and to which good designers, scientists, and engineers all agree. Vostochny is brand new. It stands barely finished. No launch had ever been attempted there before. For there to be a one day delay because of a minor engineering issue is hardly a sign of poor workmanship. Instead, it suggests the people who built it did a reasonably good job, even as many of their managers ripped them and the project off.
What we see here is an industry that is being run not by people who understand the business, but by distant politicians whose only interest is power and control. Can you imagine any manager in Roscosmos anywhere being willing to approve the start of a radical new engineering project, faced with pressure from Putin and these power-hungry politicians in Moscow? It won’t happen. Until there is a change and the politicians let go of their control of this industry, Roscosmos is going to take the safe route every single time.
Nothing new is going to come from Russia’s aerospace industry for a very long time.
Hour Three
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He is also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: Syria. The growing crisis in Ukraine. Putin entered Syria to save Assad to prevent ISIS from taking over.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-01/nato-deploys-4000-troops-russian-border-eucom-chief-urges-return-war-planning (1 of 4)
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, prof. Emeritus, Princeton; also American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/30/thousands-flee-aleppo-under-cover-of-darkness-as-assad-planes-ci/ (2 of 4)
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, prof. Emeritus, Princeton; also American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-reshuffle-lawenforcement-idUSKCN0XR0P2 (3 of 4)
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, prof. Emeritus, Princeton; also American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: (4 of 4)
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from ZeroHedge
With anti-establishmentarians on the rise in the US & Europe, it appears the neocons and their NATO proxy aren't wasting any time and are stepping up not just the words, but their deeds, against a so-called "resurgent Russia." NATO's European Command (EUCOM) "needs to change," blasts General Philip Breedlove, urging the military to get back to the business of war planning, a skill lost during the post-Cold War era saying his objective is to send a signal of deterrence to Russia. That signal was heard loud and clear as NATO is deploying an additional four battalions of 4,000 troops to the Russian border in Poland and the three Baltic States, according to a report citing US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work.
"We have to be ready for a situation where we don't have Russia as a partner," warns EUCOM Gen. Philip Breedlove, adding that the military here needs to get back to the business of war planning, a skill lost during the post-Cold War era and one needed again in the face of a resurgent Russia. As Military.com reports,
On Tuesday, Breedlove will walk a final time across the parade ground at EUCOM headquarters, handing off leadership of more than 60,000 troops to Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti.
Unlike when Breedlove assumed command in 2013, Scaparrotti arrives at a time of upheaval as the continent contends with Cold War-like tensions with Russia, a refugee crisis tearing at Europe's social fabric, and increased fears about terrorism because of war along NATO's southern flank.
Scaparrotti will lead a EUCOM headquarters that over the years has shrunk in size -- it is the second-smallest of all combatant commands -- even as the Pentagon attempts to boost its presence along NATO's eastern edge.
Breedlove said more work needs to be done to lift EUCOM out of its post-Cold War mindset, which resulted in "building partner capacity," military parlance for training missions. EUCOM is a "mere fraction" of what it was a generation ago, a downsizing that occurred when the U.S. was trying to make a partner out of Russia.
"I am very sure about how EUCOM needs to change," Breedlove said during a recent exit interview with Stars and Stripes. "This headquarters shrank and changed from a war-fighting headquarters to a building-partnership-capacity, engagement kind of headquarters."
"This headquarters needs to be a warfighting headquarters," he said.
Reorienting EUCOM into a warfighting headquarters likely would demand more resources, more troops and new contingency plans to conduct combat operations within Europe.
In the past three years, EUCOM has responded to new security concerns by boosting its presence in eastern Europe, mainly through rotational troops and pre-positioned tanks and other armor.
A $3.4 billion Pentagon proposal, prompted by what the West sees as a more aggressive and unpredictable Russia, seeks to build upon recent efforts in the year ahead.
Dealing with Russia's formidable capabilities around the Baltics, where NATO is outmanned and outgunned, is one obstacle allies will need to prepare for better, according to Breedlove.
Some critics, particularly in Berlin, have said Breedlove's rhetoric sometimes has been too hawkish. The general rejects such criticism, saying his objective is to send a signal of deterrence to Russia; and as RT reports, NATO's deployment of an additional 4,000 troops to the Russian border signals their intent loud and clear...
Work confirmed the number of troops to be sent to the border with Russia, The Wall Street Journal reports. He said the reason for the deployment is Russia’s multiple snap military exercises near the Baltics States.
“The Russians have been doing a lot of snap exercises right up against the borders, with a lot of troops,” Work said as cited by the Wall Street Journal. “From our perspective, we could argue this is extraordinarily provocative behavior.”
Moscow has been unhappy with the NATO military buildup at Russia’s borders for some time now; and with this latest move, The Russians, as expected, are displeased...
“NATO military infrastructure is inching closer and closer to Russia’s borders. But when Russia takes action to ensure its security, we are told that Russia is engaging in dangerous maneuvers near NATO borders. In fact, NATO borders are getting closer to Russia, not the opposite,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Sweden’s Dagens Nyheter daily.
Poland and the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have regularly pressed NATO headquarters to beef up the alliance’s presence on their territory.
According to the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, the permanent presence of large NATO formations at the Russian border is prohibited. Yet some voices in Brussels are saying that since the NATO troops stationed next to Russia are going to rotate, this kind of military buildup cannot be regarded as a permanent presence.
Russia’s Defense Ministry says it’s ready for a tit-for-tat response to any NATO military activity near Russia’s borders. As Russia’s envoy to NATO Aleksandr Grushko put it, there are no “passive observes” in the Russian armed forces and Moscow would definitely compensate militarily for an “absolutely unjustified military presence.”
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Hour Four
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: This Gulf of Fire: The Destruction of Lisbon, or Apocalypse in the Age of Science and Reason by Mark Molesky. Part I of II (1 of 8)
“The definitive history of the Lisbon earthquake and its aftermath. [This Gulf of Fire] combines exhaustive research with dramatic eyewitness accounts and modern discoveries in geology and seismology … Molesky has masterfully revived [the Lisbon tragedy] here. [This is] a powerful story about human and cultural loss and recovery that is hard to forget.” —R.W. Clark, Washington Independent Review of Books
“Molesky’s rendering of the continent-wide philosophical debate following the earthquake is particularly lucid.” —Henrik Bering, The New Criterion
“[A] vivid portrayal . . . Molesky’s story is well-informed and well-paced . . . [and] fluent prose and vivid vignettes keep the reader engaged . . . Molesky paints a dolorous picture of the decadence of the pre-earthquake city . . . [and] knows everything worth knowing about the quake.” —Felipe Fernández-Armesto, The Wall Street Journal
http://www.amazon.com/This-Gulf-Fire-Destruction-Apocalypse/dp/0307267628/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1462323070&sr=1-1&refinements=p_27%3AMark+Molesky
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: This Gulf of Fire: The Destruction of Lisbon, or Apocalypse in the Age of Science and Reason by Mark Molesky. Part I of II (2 of 8)
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: This Gulf of Fire: The Destruction of Lisbon, or Apocalypse in the Age of Science and Reason by Mark Molesky. Part I of II (3 of 8)
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: This Gulf of Fire: The Destruction of Lisbon, or Apocalypse in the Age of Science and Reason by Mark Molesky. Part I of II (4 of 8)
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