Tuesday 26 July 2016
Photo, left:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
Hour One
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Larry Kudlow, in re: US has highest corp tax in the world; Trump spoke in favor of diminution. “We’ll make this the most hospitable [for bz] country in the world, and trillions of dollars will flow in,” As well as I know, Mrs Clinton has not one pro-growth policy whatsoever; she wants a single-payer health care system; don't know how she gets around the issue of long-time stagnant economy but no solution. . . . We have too-long depreciation schedules, need immediate write-offs for new investment – of which there’s been none since the year 2000. Not only would US firms come home, and bring back overseas cash, but would attract overseas investors. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/25/federal-reserve-with-low-credibility-gets...
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Brian Blase, Mercatus Center, in re: Medicaid and ACA: just discovered a $19 billion mistake in the government’s one-year projection of the Affordable Care Act cost. (Brian explains the details in his most recent Forbes column.) Medicaid recipients have mostly been added to Obamacare expansion: 2015 projections was $4,300 per person cost to enroll; now, said to be $6,400. In the aggregate (9 million enrollees) it’s a $19 million mistake. In two years, Medicare costs have increased by $19 billion: feds reimburse states 100%of rates, so states offer extremely generous payment rates. Some have lost, some have gained, ins coverage; the net increase is via Medicaid. This will increase the natl debt and crowd out natl defense, infrastructure, and other priority expenditures. Economic and political actors respond to incentives. This Adm projected it’d be 30% cheaper than the traditional Medicaid population; bad assumption based on bad economics. States employ gimmicks to maximize Medicaid dollars. Doctors are pulling out of Medicare and Medicaid; the latter long had lower payment rates so many physicians would not accept enrollees; enrollees thus often went to emergency rooms (which is staggeringly expensive). http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/07/20/government-report-f...
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Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution, and author of a new book on JFK; in re: Bernie Sanders no longer is for Bernie Sanders; and the DNC got a convention bounce last night. “Yes, but what price glory?” She calculates she can get enough of their support to win. This is a group of very left/liberal folks; dunno if she needs he support of the baristas. She certainly won't get a lot more support by following Sanders’s agenda. What happened to Occupy Wall Street? It's now the Bernie crowd. Madeleine Albright is to speak tonight -will she mention ISIS? Their agenda is free college and health care and jobs for all, and have rich people pay for it. Did Wasserman-Schultz and Clinton rig the outcome? W-S did her best to define the outcome. The debates were almost invisible. About the so-called Trump-Putin ticket: George Will says the reason Trump won’t release his taxes is that he’s done deals with oligarchs. (Putin is dating Murdoch’s ex-wife Wendy.) Btw, tax statements wouldn't reveal a deal with a foreign oligarch. Trump is having a good time watching the DNC in Philadelphia; but he’s gotta tighten up his game and turnaround on news stories. Is this not disorder but just he regular Democrats? It's a 60/40 split Clinton/Sanders. She doesn’t seem [profound] – no theme, what the Brits call a “themeless pudding.” Everyone agrees the economy is stagnant and she has no message. She has to tie herself in to a long procession of Democrats for justice, economic growth – tie herself to Kennedy, FDR and Obama.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billwhalen/2016/07/23/in-philadelphia-democrats-welcome-and-fear-a-rocky-convention/#ffbdf92923bb
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Aaron Task, digital editor of Fortune magazine and host of witty podcast thereof – Fortune unfiltered in iTunes, or Fortune.com/podcasts; thought leaders on their journeys to success ; in re: Fortune, Larry, I – we're all worried. Will the Fed say, “We want to raise rates —!” My worry is that the Federal Reserve is losing credibility. The Fed that cried wolf. Much of the Fed’s power stems from the markets belief in it. “Like a highway project, I want to level the Fed and rebuild it. The Fed is infested with Ph.D.’s – 500 on staff; but their models are consistently wrong. Some day the wolf will show up. They also have the bad habit of flipflopp ing, Dec ’15 raise the target rate by one-quarter of a point, will do so every month – then awful numbers come in and they flipflop. Instead of [fancypants], why not put farmers. small-businessmen, real [citizens] on the Fed, which is what used to be normal. The Fed says, “We may do X,” then looks at how the market reacts and then mollifies the market.
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/fortune-unfiltered-aaron-task/id1135636641?mt=2
Hour Two
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Rita Cosby, WABC senior news director, in re: The venue, alone, is humongous and it takes ten minutes to get across from one side to another. Compare and contrast Bernie supporters on Day One, then on Day Two: they carry on their fight in a penned-in area in Roosevelt Park; still getting a lot of support from those in the convention, When Bernie addresses them earlier today they booed him. “Not Hillary!” Will vote for Green [Jill Stein] or even Trump.
John Fund, NRO, in re: the reason this convention is so much more fun than the GOP one in Cleveland is there here we have seething anger and resentment, intrigue, Russians – everything. Bernie sent a message to the head of the New Mexico delegation: “Please stand down and don't protest” – but she refused to, saying she thought the message was inauthentic. Was Bernie kidnapped? Ohio Bernie Supporter called Hilary “Evita” and many are upset at the FBI ‘s refusal to prosecute Hillary, then the hacking of the DNC by the Russkies and leaking to Assange/wikileaks (although puzzling why Moscow might do that). Donna Brazile got a huge standing ovation, Also, Mothers of the Movement, whose children were killed by law enforcement. Black Lives Matter: present in a very small contingent. Is Bill Clinton the one to knit the Party back together? They still really admire him. He’s a great speaker. Recall he was once chanted down by BLM. Is Bill a closer for Hillary, or an opening act for Obama and Biden? Remember his four-star performance for Obama at the 2012 convention. Will Rogers: “I don't belong to an organized Party; I’m a Democrat.” Hillary is much more divisive figure. The Sanders “dead-enders”: at the convention they may be significant, but in the country, 85% of Bernie supporters will vote for Hillary. But they’re less loyal, less likely to vote. Jerry Brown flew into Philly today all doom and gloom: “Hillary is in deep trouble”; these are old resentments simmering in Jerry’s troubled breast.
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re: Anent Mrs Clinton’s pilfered emails: I am told that it was not the Russians. The Russians don't leave fingerprints. And they wouldn't do anything to discomfit Debbie Wasserman Schultz!
The FSB and GRU hacked, or spearphished, the DNC to reveal that Wasserman-Shultz favored Clinton over Sanders. Then Putin caused the info to be given to wikileaks /Julien Assange so he could reveal this and get Debbie W-S removed. Some are endorsing this. Seems like a red scare without the red. And everyone in DC is instantly a counterintelligence expert. James Jesus Angleton & Helms: years ago a man defected and was telling us things. After years of his being imprisoned, Michael spoke with Helms: was he real or a disinformation agent? “I don’t know and I don’t think we ever will.” Is this a new way to insult the Kremlin by conveying they’re they're so inept? Or that they trust Assange to keep a secret?? Meanwhile, the serious Russia stories – Kerry is making another secret deal with the Kremlin on Syria – are being ignored.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/26/world/americas/peru-illegal-gold-mining-latin-america.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fscience&action=click&contentCollection=science®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=3&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0
https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/2016/07/26/whos-hillarys-hacker-and-why/
Kremlin says idea it hacked U.S. Democratic Party emails absurd
MOSCOW The Kremlin dismissed as absurd on Tuesday allegations it was behind the hacking of U.S. Democratic Party emails, saying unidentified individuals were trying to cynically exploit fear of Russia for electoral purposes.
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Seb Gorka, Marine Corps University, in re: The two attackers were killed by police upon exiting the church. Prosecutors said one of them was Adel Kermiche, a young man who was under court order to wear an electronic bracelet after trying to travel to Syria.
Kermiche, a 19-year-old who was born and raised in France, was detained in Turkey in 2015 while trying to reach Islamic State’s stronghold in northern Syria, French authorities said. He was ordered to wear the bracelet in March after French prosecutors placed him under investigation on preliminary terrorism charges.
Henria Bayouki, 19, a friend who attended summer camp with Kermiche, said she spoke to his family, who confirmed he was one of the attackers.
The knife-wielding men, one of whom was carrying fake explosives, entered the 16th-century stone church in this Normandy town and took five hostages, including Rev. Jacques Hamel, the parish’s 85-year-old auxiliary priest.
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: David Beckworth, Mercatus Center, in re: Since mid-2014 the Fed has been talking up interest rate hikes--as seen by the movements in fed fund futures rate--but only has a 25 basis point rate increase to show for it. This is because the Fed's plans often bump up against unexpected economic developments. And lately, this seems to be happening in a cycle that goes as follows: the Fed talks up interest rate hikes → bad economic news emerges → the Fed dials down its rate hike talk → good economic news emerges → repeat cycle.
To see this cycle, recall what has happened this year. After the FOMC did its 25 basis point hike in December 2015, FOMC members were talking up four more rate hikes in 2016. Then in early 2016 concerns emerged about financial stress and the global economy that caused Fed officials to dial back their rate hike talk. By the time of the March FOMC meeting, some members were even concerned about raising rates in April. Over the next few months, however, incoming economic data was improving so Fed officials once again began dialing up their tightening talk. A rate hike at the June FOMC seemed possible. The rate hike rhetoric quickly changed, however, when the awful May jobs report--only 38,000 jobs--came out on June 3. Indeed, the FOMC passed on a rate hike at its June meeting. The Brexit vote reinforced those concerns.
Now the cycle is starting over. The gangbuster June employment report and strong retail sales are causing Fed officials to get itchy trigger fingers again, as seen in the above Wall Street Journal article. Fed officials are increasingly "confident" they can raise rates in September this year. But will they be able to follow through? Or will this cycle repeat itself?
Hour Three
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:in re: It responded after cyber security experts and U.S. officials said there was evidence Russia had engineered the release of sensitive Democratic Party emails in order to influence the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.
The emails, released by the activist group WikiLeaks at the weekend, appeared to show favouritism within the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for Hillary Clinton and prompted the resignation of DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
President Vladimir Putin has tried to avoid giving the impression he favours any U.S. candidate, but has hailed Republican Party nominee Donald Trump as being "very talented".
Russian state TV, which hews closely to the Kremlin's world view, has left little doubt however that Moscow would prefer Trump. It casts Clinton, whom Putin accused of stirring up protests against him in her role as U.S. Secretary of State in 2011, as a warmonger.
"We are again seeing these maniacal attempts to exploit the Russian theme in the U.S. election campaign," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the leaked emails.
"This is not breaking new ground, this is an old trick which is being played again. This is not good for our bilateral relations, but we understand that we simply have to get through this unpleasant period."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-cyber-idUSKCN1060ZA ; http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/07/26/world/europe/ap-us-united-states-russia-syria.html (1 of 4)
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: It responded after cyber security experts and U.S. officials said there was evidence Russia had engineered the release of sensitive Democratic Party emails in order to influence the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.
The emails, released by activist group WikiLeaks at the weekend, appeared to show favouritism within the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for Hillary Clinton and prompted the resignation of DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
President Vladimir Putin has tried to avoid giving the impression he favours any U.S. candidate, but has hailed Republican Party nominee Donald Trump as being "very talented".
Russian state TV, which hews closely to the Kremlin's world view, has left little doubt however that Moscow would prefer Trump. It casts Clinton, whom Putin accused of stirring up protests against him in her role as U.S. Secretary of State in 2011, as a warmonger.
"We are again seeing these maniacal attempts to exploit the Russian theme in the U.S. election campaign," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the leaked emails.
"This is not breaking new ground, this is an old trick which is being played again. This is not good for our bilateral relations, but we understand that we simply have to get through this unpleasant period." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-cyber-idUSKCN1060ZA ; http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/07/26/world/europe/ap-us-united-states-russia-syria.html (2 of 4)
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); (3 of 4)
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); (4 of 4)
Hour Four
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Forty-Seven Days: How Pershing's Warriors Came of Age to Defeat the German Army in World War I, by Mitchell Yockelson. The gripping account of the U.S. First Army’s astonishing triumph over the Germans in America’s bloodiest battle of the First World War—the Battle of the Meuse-Argonne.
The Battle of the Meuse-Argonne stands as the deadliest clash in American history: More than a million untested American soldiers went up against a better-trained and -experienced German army, costing more twenty-six thousand deaths and leaving nearly a hundred thousand wounded. Yet in forty-seven days of intense combat, those Americans pushed back the enemy and forced the Germans to surrender, bringing the First World War to an end—a feat the British and the French had not achieved after more than three years of fighting.
In Forty-Seven Days, historian Mitchell Yockelson tells how General John J. “Black Jack” Pershing’s exemplary leadership led to the unlikeliest of victories. Appointed commander of the American Expeditionary Forces by President Wilson, Pershing personally took command of the U.S. First Army until supplies ran low and the fighting ground to a stalemate. Refusing to admit defeat, Pershing stepped aside and placed gutsy Lieutenant General Hunter Liggett in charge. While Pershing retained command, Liggett reorganized his new unit, resting and resupplying his men, while instilling a confidence in the doughboys that drove them out of the trenches and across no-man’s-land.
Also explored are a cast of remarkable inhttps://www.amazon.com/stream/ref=nav_upnav_LargeImage_T2_Detaildividuals, including America’s original fighter ace, Eddie Rickenbacker; Corporal Alvin York, a pacifist who nevertheless single-handedly killed more than twenty Germans and captured 132; artillery officer and future president Harry S. Truman; innovative tank commander George S. Patton; and Douglas MacArthur, the Great War’s most decorated soldier, who would command the American army in the Pacific War and in Korea.
Offering an abundance of new details and insight, Forty-Seven Days is the definitive account of the First Army’s hard-fought victory in World War I—and the revealing tale of how our military came of age in its most devastating battle. https://www.amazon.com/Forty-Seven-Days-Pershings-Warriors-Defeat/dp/0451466950/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1469580475&sr=1-1 (1 of 4)
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Forty-Seven Days: How Pershing's Warriors Came of Age to Defeat the German Army in World War I, by Mitchell Yockelson. The gripping account of the U.S. First Army’s astonishing triumph over the Germans in America’s bloodiest battle of the First World War—the Battle of the Meuse-Argonne. (2 of 4)
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Forty-Seven Days: How Pershing's Warriors Came of Age to Defeat the German Army in World War I, by Mitchell Yockelson. The gripping account of the U.S. First Army’s astonishing triumph over the Germans in America’s bloodiest battle of the First World War—the Battle of the Meuse-Argonne. (3 of 4)
Tuesday 26 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Forty-Seven Days: How Pershing's Warriors Came of Age to Defeat the German Army in World War I, by Mitchell Yockelson. The gripping account of the U.S. First Army’s astonishing triumph over the Germans in America’s bloodiest battle of the First World War—the Battle of the Meuse-Argonne. (4 of 4)
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