The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 26 January 2016

Air Date: 
January 26, 2016

Postcard, left: General Electric buildings in Bridgeport, Connecticut. Hitherto one of the state’s largest employers, GE announced that it’ll soon leave and move to Massachusetts out of concern for poor fiscal policies in Connecticut and for looming tax increases.  After condemning the very notion of giving tax breaks to corporations, very recently the panicked Governor Malloy, in concert with Senator Blumenthal, offered GE a huge tax break as a bribe to have the company stay. Jeff Immelt, acutely aware of Connecticut’s parlous financial condition, politely declined.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 1, Block A:  Robert Costa, Washington Post, in re:  Larry Kudlow featured in Hartford Courant: “Kudlow edging closer to running for senator against Blumenthal.” Will decide by the end of February. Gov Malloy in concert with Sen Blumenthal have condemned offering tax breaks to large corporations – but it turns out that two weeks ago, panicked as GE announced it was picking up and moving to Boston because the economic environment for their employees is poor, both offered GE a huge tax break to get it to stay in Connecticut. No go. Meanwhile, Robert Costa has been in Iowa for many days: looks like a two-man race of Trump vs Cruz. Most chaotic I’ve ever seen the Iowa race; both campaigns working furiously to bring out voters; can Trump bring out the normal 120K or 140K voters? You can register the day-of in Iowa. Has not been an upswing of enrollees so far. Tonight:  Trump will be skipping the Thursday debate will . . . I spent the weekend with Trump and his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski.  Trump says he’s withdrawing on the grounds that Megyn Kelly will “treat him unfairly”; Dr Ailes says he sticks by Megyn Kelly.  Cruz is challenging Trump to a one-on-one debate.  Savvy move by Cruz so the news cycle won’t be dominated by Trump.  Trump: no evidence of a ground game?  No!  A lot of social media presence and a social media app directing people to the caucuses. Has Rick Santorum’s campaign manager.
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 1, Block B:  Robert Costa, Washington Post, in re: Bermie Sanders’s campaign is doing well among college students and senior liberals; Mrs Clinton’s campaign is extremely organized, efficient.  The Sanders enthusiasm is so real you can't rule him out.  I flew with him a year ago on his very first trip ever to Iowa.  There are thousands of caucuses – February 1 is the date - in 99 counties. Ground game is what counts.
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 1, Block C: Joseph Rago, WSJ, in re:  Obamacare update.  Conversation with Ted Cruz on Obamacare. ACA: we haven't seen the surge in enrollments touted; expectations lowered (“downgraded”); largest insurer lost $20 million (?) this year; we’re seeing real indications of adverse selection: pools of older folks, young people not joining, can't increase the premiums enough to cover the claims. Last night at Democratic evening, many questions on how to afford health insurance. Obamacare was a huge factor in the GOP electoral sweeps of 2012; not much discussion now?  Trump’s presence in the race hasn't focused on serious policy considerations. May have to re-open the law; Paul Ryan saying that this year the House will pass a replacement of some sort.  Mrs Clinton will increase expenses. Six years ago when the law was passed we were told that everyone would come around to love it.  The opposite is happening.  Reform alternative looks valuable.  Medicaid expansion: states that accepted that will now get much bigger bill as more people use emergency rooms. The “woodwork effect” – when you expand an entitlement, many ore people emerge than expected.   We've seen o reduction in ER use whatsoever.  Overuse of Medicaid runs up huge bills; adverse selection; financial clamp points coming down on both sides.  States ask to run this on their own terms; governors have no tools with which to manage; are under the boot of Maryland department.  Part of Cruz’s stump speech: repeal the ACA and replace it with something better – pass his simple flat tax for for business and repeal Obamcare. (Also end ethanol mandates and subsidies – end almost all subsidies, incl the Blend Wall: ethanol mandate – currently can't exceed 10% of a gallon of gas, while agriculture wants it to go up to 15% or 20%.) Obama’s White House must be disappointed; are they open about it? No – it's a kind of Baghdad Bob situation where they say everything’s just fine.
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 1, Block D: Larry Kudlow, in re:  Were there to be a Senator Kudlow, what would be his policies? Poor conduct of the state democratic Party, Kudlow has always been an optimist, can find positive solutions and turn this around. To do so here, need a does of free-mkt capitalism: slash tax rates for all business – small and large. Property tax is second-worst in the US. Very high personal income tax –many people leaving, Massive overregulation, it costs a fortune to get a license to do anything, Meanwhile, the public service unions dominate the Democratic Party, have pensions twice as much as in the private sector so state has to raise taxes – which loses jobs and hurts middle-income citizens. Have to stop the runaway costs; about half are unfunded!  That’s why Jeff Immelt took GE and left: he can see unavoidable more taxes coming up.
In the early 1990s there was voted in a strictly-worded constitutional amendment of budget caps – and it was never used once in 20 years, The state AG just nullified it as having been unused.  Sen Blumenthal loves to attack rich people  - although he owns the Empire State Bldg. Meanwhile, Connecticut has a huge number of hedge funds and investors and brokerage firms. Two-thirds are back-office, admin and techies – middle income.   Mr Blumenthal never sticks up for them, he just bashes them.   Voters: first, taxes and economy, then jobs.
 
Hour Two
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He’s also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:  Livinenko seems to have died from polonium; however, it's genuinely not clear that Putin was involved: in fact, Litvenenko had a lot of powerful enemies, incl the oligarch who later hanged himself, so to speak, in London. Since 2007 Russia has put up with one-way diplomacy: the West goes to Moscow and makes demands. That day is over. 
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 2, Block B:  Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies; in re: http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2016/01/25/a-dangerous-moment-for-ukraines-fragile-ceasefire/   Behind the scenes, U.S. diplomats are rediscovering Ukraine as a foreign-policy priority.  On Jan. 15, Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland met with a key Kremlin adviser at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s beachfront residence on the Baltic Sea. Nuland, the top U.S. diplomat responsible for European affairs, had traveled to Russia’s heavily militarized Kaliningrad region to sit down with Vladislav Surkov, Putin’s lieutenant overseeing the rebel regions in eastern Ukraine. Their six-hour “brainstorming” session, Surkov later told Russian journalists, touched on the thorniest issues of Ukraine’s tenuous peace process and proved both “constructive and useful.
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies; in re:  WSJ Holman Jenkins advocating a get-tough policy with the Kremlin: “If you implement the Minsk Accords you're selling out Ukraine,” says the White House.  Poroshenko is dawdling on implementing them. http://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-wests-putin-silence-over-1453502873
The problems with this view are many. If the West was triumphalist at the end of the Cold War, Mr. Putin was a creation of that triumph. The Putin regime arose to loot the benefits of Russian integration in the world economy, especially its oil revenues. Economist Anders Aslund called it the “greatest corruption story in history.”
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 2, Block D:  Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies; in re: The Russian air campaign in Syria enabled strategic gains in the regime's longstanding effort to buffer its coastal heartland in Latakia from January 23 - 25. Russian strikes targeted opposition-held positions along the frontline in both Jebel al-Akrad and Jebel Turkmen mountain ranges in Northern Latakia, facilitating the regime's seizure of the town of Rabi'ah, the last major opposition-held town in the province on January 24. The regime's clearing operations in northern Latakia were enabled by Russian air support and were also reportedly guided by Russian advisers on the ground who likely contributed to the operation's success. The regime's consolidation of territory in northeastern Latakia comes after the seizure of Salma by pro-regime forces on January 12, which penetrated the opposition's defensive line and left opposition forces vulnerable to further regime gains. The Russian air campaign has prioritized the preservation of regime-held territory, especially on the coast and in the central corridor, since its inception. Russia began its military intervention shortly after opposition forces began advancing in northeastern Latakia, and the threat to the regime's heartland likely precipitated Russia's military effort in Syria. Regime advances in Latakia also apply increasing pressure on opposition forces in neighboring Idlib province, an opposition stronghold. Russian airstrikes also allowed pro-regime forces to fully recapture the town of Sheikh Meskin in Dera'a province on 25 January following several weeks of clashes with opposition forces.
 
Hour Three
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 3, Block Lara M Brown, Georgetown, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re:   Is Hillary Getting a Pass on Dems' Turn Left to SocialismCLICK HERE FOR LINK / SOMERSET - Three cars in a row with Bernie Sanders bumper stickers passed the traffic signal on the old Glades Pike in the center of town. A few Sanders signs marked houses and mobile homes along the 160-mile drive from Pittsburgh to here and back. http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/lara-brown/articles/2016-01-22/history-teaches-that-candidates-like-trump-win-support-but-not-presidency  (1 of 2)
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 3, Block B:  Lara M Brown, Georgetown, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (2 of 2)
Lara M. Brown, Ph.D., is an associate professor and the program director of the Political Management Program in the Graduate School of Political Management at The George Washington University, and the author of Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants. She also served in President William J. Clinton’s administration at the U.S. Department of Education. Follow her on Twitter @LaraMBrownPHD.
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 3, Block C:   Aaron Klein, Middle East Bureau Chief, Breitbart; in re:  Report: Islamic State, Al-Qaida, Muslim Brotherhood Discuss ‘Mega-Merger’ in Libya.  TEL AVIV – The Libyan branches of the Islamic State, Al-Qaida, and the Muslim Brotherhood are in discussions to complete a “mega merger,” the London-based A Sharq al Awsat newspaper reported.
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 3, Block D: Aaron Klein, Middle East Bureau Chief, Breitbart; in re: Ya’alon: Turkey Funds ISIS Militants by Buying Oil from Them   Ynetnews reports: While Israel and Turkey’s representatives are hard at work on normalizing ties, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon on Tuesday accused Ankara of encouraging terrorism by buying oil from the Islamic State group. “As you know, Da’esh (Islamic State) enjoyed  . . .  / Report: Russian, U.S. and British Troops Deployed in Libya Ahead of Anti-IS Offensive  TEL AVIV – Dozens of Russian, American, and British troops have been deployed to Libya ahead of an offensive against the Islamic State, Libyan sources told the London-based daily Asharq al-Awsat. The forces are based in the Jamal Abdulnasir military base
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 4, Block A:  1932: The Rise of Hitler and FDR--Two Tales of Politics, Betrayal, and Unlikely Destiny,by David Pietrusza; Part II of III (segment 5 of 12)
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 4, Block B:  1932: The Rise of Hitler and FDR--Two Tales of Politics, Betrayal, and Unlikely Destiny,by David Pietrusza; Part II of III (segment 6 of 12)
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 4, Block C: 1932: The Rise of Hitler and FDR--Two Tales of Politics, Betrayal, and Unlikely Destiny,by David Pietrusza; Part II of III (segment 7 of 12)
Tuesday  26 January 2016   / Hour 4, Block D:  1932: The Rise of Hitler and FDR--Two Tales of Politics, Betrayal, and Unlikely Destiny,by David Pietrusza; Part II of III (segment 8 of 12)