The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 25 September 2012

Air Date: 
September 25, 2012

 

Photo, above: Iran announces missile tests at the Strait of Hormuz

JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW

Co-host: Larry Kudlow, The Kudlow report, CNBC, and WABC Radio

Tuesday 905P Eastern Time:  Larry Kudlow, in re:  did the mkt sell off on report of Iranian missiles test this morning?  Maybe, but more likely in response to Spanish bonds question; of course, Strait of Hormuz missiles had something to do with it. Gen McCaffrey says that although Iran is a third-rate military, it could tie up the Strait for many days.   Meanwhile, big financial companies have their websites messed up – by Iranian cyberhackers?  Is foreign policy pressing on the election?  More abt domestic – unless  there's a big blow-up somewhere.  Astounding that Pres Obama cd say to UN that the terrorist attacks were caused by the video – even though State and our counterterrorism experts all say it's not. This is a falsehood!  Chris Stevens was lured. President and his natl security crew are maintaining a fiction that's extremely curious – except the failure in Benghazi shows that the Responsibility to Protect doctrine failed deeply in Libya – and this administration wants to apply R2P in Syria [another, oncoming failure]. We're recruiting fighters in Cyrenaica to fight in Syria – and they just whacked us!

Mr. Romney and Jack Nicklaus greet well-wishers in Ohio, Wednesday morning 26 September.

Tuesday 920P Eastern Time: John McLaughlin, McLaughlin Associates, in re:  what can be seen in the polls right now. LK: That 20% tax break is serious cash – Dems like to provide benefits with govt spending, whereas Republicans provide lower taxes so people can take home more.  JML:  In the next 42 days, Romney better show why people will do better under his administration – need hope that the economy will grow gain.  Must lay down a growth tax  construct. LK:  Reagan very clearly called it "take-home pay."  Got no convention bounce because they never once spoke of growth or tax cuts. Republican don't win that way.  A lot of bad polls coming out. CBS had 25% Republicans in its poll, claim that Romney has lost Florida – random-digit dialling and some cell phones; only 130 million people vote.  Romney and the RNC better get a lot more aggressive in calling out the bogus polls.  The NY Times is using [unacceptable bases].   Linda McMahon in Connecticut will cut taxes by $500/mo – not for the rich, but for the middle class.

 

Tuesday 935P Eastern Time:  John Taylor, Hoover, in re:  QE ∞ . Testified in Congress about why this recovery is so moribund.  Charts: relation between the number of Federal regulatory workers  - a huge increase recently – and the delayed economic recovery.   The number went down in the Reagan years, and the recovery then was swift and sure.  We're actually going in the wrong direction in regulatory costs: more energy, financial, across he board. More financial coming with Dodd Frank. Obamacare will make it worse: more regs, requirements for premiums. Note that rents in and around the District – Virginia and Maryland – are going up; perhaps because of    Uncertainty abt tax policies, natl debt – all part of a bigger story.   John Taylor's book: Govt Policies and Delayed Economic Recovery [chap 14: Bankruptcy, not bail-outs]–   Monetary regulation. QE3 announcement saw a drop in mortgage spreads, but reversed and now are even higher. Spread widening mainly to revert to where they were when the fundamentals take over – earnings of firms, what underlies the stock market: the Fed can't control these. Rate is $40 billion/mo; could go on for years. Fed buying bonds, paying in cash reserves; will wind up at the Fed, not circulate in the economy – hat's what happened with QE1 and QE2; banks just sit on the money.  When the Fed decides to reverse, it’ll be very tough.   Taylor Rule: showing a higher or zero funds re? Not far from where it is now – toward 1%. The rationale for QE is not there!  Charles Plosser (Philly Fed) said flat-out that QE3 will not work.  Charlie is correct to be sceptical in this.

Tuesday 950P Eastern Time: Larry Kudlow, in re:  regulatory cliff.  John Taylor is one brilliant guy. Now that he's been out of ofc for a few years and had time to think, he's made remarkable [progress]. See:  econ101.com [?]   Businesses will not make decades-long investments, which are essential to keeping the economy running. Obama has reversed the numerator and denominator.

Tuesday 1005P (705P Pacific Time):  Larry Johnson, No Quarter blog, in re:  Benghazi.  "The cover-up of what happened in Benghazi is real and significant. The intel warned of an attack at least three months earlier by the very group who carried out the attack. The perps were identified on the date of the attack. The movie played no role whatsoever."  The President links the video with the massacre – which is not accurate, nor what he was briefed on by his intelligence aides. Mortar rounds killed the two SEALs – requires training and preparation, and is a crew-served weapon (needs minimum two people to use it).   Terrorist act carried out by al Qaeda. Al Libi was killed by drone; his elder brother is a central figure in Libyan al Q. Strike on Chris Stevens was an act of revenge.   Months ago in the hands of the intell community was info abt the group that carried out the attack. AL Qaeda has succeeded. Lapses by State Dept: dip security had pushed for tighter measures around the consulate and a PSD for the ambassador; were thwarted.   Egregious failure across the board.  This attack was actually anticipated – warnings give, complete failure to deal with it followed by denials. This is what the Obama administration is running from now.   Ambassador definitely knew that CIA was active in statecraft and security.

 

An 81mm infrared shell is fired into the night by the support section of the French Battle Group Steel during 'Parabellum Exercise' on Sept. 3, 2012 at Forward Operating Base Tagab in Kapisa province, Afghanistan. Photo copyright TF La Fayette, via ISAF Joint Command.

Tuesday 1020P (720P Pacific Time): Reza Kahlili, Washington Times, in re: threats to Gulf by Iran, threats to close Strait of Hormuz, threats to US bases in Gulf.

Tuesday 1035P (735P Pacific Time):  Bill Roggio, Long War Journal; Arif Rafiq, Middle East Institute & The Express Tribune (Intl Herald Tribune); in re: The video that may or may not exist, but the trailer does; also the Taliban video – a clip of a  longer video to be released later - of guys who launched into Camp Bastion: in explosive vests, doing practice attacks, with a map of perimeter of the camp; all excellently prepared. Haqqani Network did a similar video.   Media production facilities: iPhones or a studio?    All off the shelf; do  have media production crews thought to be based in Pakisatan. Most of the footage is of preparations; don’t often see actual attack although sometimes they pull footage off television news. 

 Drones 'terrorizing' Pakistani civilians; "Pakistan attaches great importance to ties with China: PM." 
al Qaeda leaders reported killed in Mir Ali drone strike:
Abu Kasha al Iraqi and Fateh al Turki are rumored to have been killed in the Sept. 24 strike in Mir Ali. The report has not been confirmed. Also: Taliban release video of planning for Camp Bastion assault   http://www.longwarjournal.org/#ixzz27WsnqeUJ

Tuesday 1050P (750P Pacific Time): Joshua Green, Bloomberg Business week, in re: Romney and the 47% - what was he thinking? Earned income tax credit: many don’t actually pay taxes because they have their taxes refunded – a wage subsidy for the working poor, devised under Sen Long and much expanded under Reagan: got them off welfare and back to work.  Not "shiftless and lazy"!

Tuesday 1105P (805P Pacific Time):  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: space engineer; private engineering.

Tuesday 1120P (820P Pacific Time): Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re: comet in November 2013

Tuesday 1135P (835P Pacific Time): Final Victory: FDR's Extraordinary World War II Presidential Campaign by Stanley Weintraub; 1 of 2

Kirkus reviews: FINAL VICTORY    The historian Stanley Weintraub (Pearl Harbor Christmas: A World at War, December 1941, 2011, etc.) looks at an ailing President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s last campaign.

In 1944, Roosevelt was in very poor health, plagued by a heart condition, high blood pressure and exhaustion. He was noticeably gaunt and sickly, drawing concerned comments from those close to him, and even from the press. But with World War II still raging overseas, he chose to run for an unprecedented fourth term, even if it was likely that he wouldn’t live to see the end of it. In this well-researched, engaging history, Weintraub effectively brings the players to life, portraying the public and private faces of the witty, indomitable FDR and his opponent, the stiff, humorless New York Gov. Thomas E. Dewey. Dewey mounted a tough campaign, claiming that “the New Deal was the beginning of a Communist ‘corporate state.’ ” He even considered accusing Roosevelt publicly of not acting on advance warning of the Pearl Harbor attacks; he was only dissuaded from doing so by Gen. George Marshall, who warned that such an accusation would endanger the ongoing war effort. He largely stayed away from exploiting Roosevelt’s illness during the campaign, although the Chicago Tribune warned that “a vote for Roosevelt is very likely to be a vote for [vice-presidential candidate Harry] Truman for President.” (Truman would in fact become president when Roosevelt died of a brain hemorrhage, just months into his fourth term.) Weintraub shows how Roosevelt, despite his illness, was still a force to be reckoned with. He continued to give dazzling speeches and enjoyed loyal support from many constituencies, including soldiers still at war, who voted absentee for FDR in large numbers.  A well-drawn political history of FDR’s last days.

Senator Harry Truman and family at the 1944 Democratic Convention.

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Tuesday 1150P (850P Pacific Time):  Final Victory: FDR's Extraordinary World War II Presidential Campaign by Stanley Weintraub; 2 of 2

FDR, Harry Truman, Henry Wallace, arriving in Washington, 1944.

Tuesday/Wed 1205A (905 Pacific Time): Larry Kudlow, in re:  did the mkt sell off on report of Iranian missiles test this morning?  Maybe, but more likely in response to Spanish bonds question; of course, Strait of Hormuz missiles had something to do with it. Gen McCaffrey says that although Iran is a third-rate military, it could tie up the Strait for many days.   Meanwhile, big financial companies have their websites messed up – by Iranian cyberhackers?  Is foreign policy pressing on the election?  It's more abt domestic – unless  there's a big blow-up somewhere.  Astounding that Pres Obama cd say to UN that the terrorist attacks were caused by the video – even though State and our counterterrorism experts all say it's not. This is a falsehood!  Chris Stevens was lured. President and his natl security crew re maintaining a fiction is extremely curious – except the failure in Benghazi shows that the Responsibility to Protect doctrine failed deeply in Libya – and this administration wants to apply R2P in Syria [another, oncoming failure]. We're recruiting fighters in Cyrenaica to fight in Syria – and they just whacked us!

Tuesday/Wed  1220A (920 Pacific Time): John McLaughlin, McLaughlin Associates, in re:  what can be seen in the polls right now. LK: That 20% tax break is serious cash – Dems like to provide benefits with govt spending, whereas Republicans provide lower taxes so people can take home more.  JML:  In the next 42 days, Romney better show why people will do better under his administration – need hope that the economy will grow gain.  Must lay down a growth tax  construct. LK:  Reagan very clearly called it "take-home pay."  Got no convention bounce because they never once spoke of growth or tax cuts. Republican don't win that way.  A lot of bad polls coming out. CBS had 25% Republicans in its poll, claim that Romney has lost Florida – random-digit dialling and some cell phones; only 130 million people vote.  Romney and the RNC better get a lot more aggressive in calling out the bogus polls.  The NY Times is using [unacceptable bases]. Linda McMahon in Connecticut will cut taxes by $500/mo – not for the rich, but for the middle class.

Tuesday/Wed  1235A (935P Pacific Time): John Taylor, Hoover, in re:  QE ∞ . Testified in Congress about why this recovery is so moribund.  Charts: relation between the number of Federal regulatory workers  - a huge increase recently – and the delayed economic recovery.   The number went down in the Reagan years, and the recovery then was swift and sure.  We're actually going in the wrong direction in regulatory costs: more energy, financial, across he board. More financial coming with Dodd Frank. Obamacare will make it worse: more regs, requirements for premiums. Note that rents in and around the District – Virginia and Maryland – are going up; perhaps because of    Uncertainty abt tax policies, natl debt – all part of a bigger story.   John Taylor's book: Govt Policies and Delayed Economic Recovery [chap 14: Bankruptcy, not bail-outs]–   Monetary regulation. QE3 announcement saw a drop in mortgage spreads, but reversed and now are even higher. Spread widening mainly to revert to where they were when the fundamentals take over – earnings of firms, what underlies the stock market: the Fed can't control these. Rate is $40 billion/mo; could go on for years. Fed buying bonds, paying in cash reserves; will wind up at the Fed, not circulate in the economy – hat's what happened with QE1 and QE2; banks just sit on the money.  When the Fed decides to reverse, it’ll be very tough.   Taylor Rule: showing a higher or zero funds re? Not far from where it is now – toward 1%. The rationale for QE is not there!  Charles Plosser (Philly Fed) said flat-out that QE3 will not work.  Charlie is correct to be sceptical in this.

Tuesday/Wed  1250A  (950P Pacific Time): Claudia Rosett, FDD, in re: Ahmadinejad the Holocaust Denier gets 140 visas for hangers-on at the Hilton

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Music (using New York City broadcast times):  9:00 hour:    The Raid;  10:00 hour:  Infamous;  11:00 hour:   Starship Troopers; Defiance;  midnight hour:  The Raid.

Cassini view of Saturn, September 2012.