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JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 1, Block A:  Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re:  Trump visited New York Times publisher today, had relatively amiable talk. Stock mkt hit 19,000 today; increasing investor confidence in the incoming administration. Small cap stocks up 11%;  bond rates rising ½ percentage point; real exchange rate up by 3%. Now is the time for the Fed to raise rates.
GOP is discovering that Pres-elect Trump is a more complex candidate than Candidate Trump.  Nikki Haley as US Amb to the UN?
Priebus, Sessions, Bannon, as insiders. Romney for State?  Mattis for SecDef?  Trump is savvy at appealing to his base and broadening it.
Rudy’s like a quarterback high up in the draft [who plummets].  Maybe John Bolton for State? That post is seen as No. 2 to the president, himself.  Establish another power center within the administration. Would Romney overturn the Iran deal? No info on that. Seems clumsy to bring in a power center that wasn't part of your [candidature].  Putting Romney on the front porch is part of Trump’s magic. 
JB:  The appointment I want is Giuliani for State.  By hard work and loyalty he won the post.  The transition is extremely tightlipped; no leaks. 
 Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 1, Block B:    Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re:  Pres-elect looks at forming a Cabinet and administration.  Is there a power center in the Democratic Party? The couple from New York are no longer on the scene.
Nancy Pelosi and the person to be announced as Party chair – they need to get rid of Pelosi, who’s been there much too long. Dealt a weak hand. Party is too progressive and bi-coastal.  Need to find Dems who can talk to disaffected workers. Had the Democratic Leadership Council, moderates and hawks, no longer exist.  
Dems say they like jobs and wages – but just don’t like the employers who provide those.  It's all redistribution and global warming/rich people.
Schumer and Trump know each other well over time. Schumer is not a Harry Reid, maybe more open to having conversations with Trump and working out deals.
Spiritual leaders of the Dem Party are Eliz Warren and Bernie Sanders, which the voters have just rejected. . . .  Need a technocrat?
Martin O’Malley? Howard Dean?
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 1, Block C: 
Gregory Zuckerman 
Special Writer, The Wall Street Journal   @GZuckerman; also author, Rising Above: How 11 Athletes Overcame Challenges in Their Youth to Become Stars; in re: The US is  the energy center of the galaxy. How are the frackers now that Trump is in the White House?  They've brought production costs ’way down and also made new discoveries: huge new one in Texas this week; and the Permian.   Frackers are much encouraged.   Forty to fifty dollars a barrel is workable yes? Used to be $60, but it's come down to $45 or $50; Harold Hamm. What does fracking in PA need? Wd love to drill on public lands and have fewer regs in general; I think there’s not that much that the govt can do as it's more price-dependent.  Trying to help the coal miners: encouraging natgas hurts them as it competes with coal. Fewer regs on emissions would help. We all want pipelines in order to avoid trucking cross-country.
Infrastructure is basic. Private firms will pay, it’s West to East pipelines we need.   LNG terminals and refineries needed. Issues on offshore drilling.
Best thing govt cd do is encourage natgas as fuel for trucks and cars shift out of diesel. Can get buy-in from Dems.   
XL Pipeline would be paid by the corp, not the govt. The whole govt refused under Obama; if the oil companies now come in with big plans, will the Dems accept? No: held hostage by the environmentalists (too much money in donations to Dems).  Harold Hamm, seventy (seventy is the new fifty) -  can he go to Washington as Energy Secretary?   He’s worth abt $15  billion, I thought he wouldn't want it, but he has a [bench] that can run his company, and you see him on TV more, is politically motivated. Yes, I can see him in for four years. He worked really hard to put together an energy-advisor group for Trump. I think he’d love to joust with the anti-fossil-fuel Dems.  Fracking causes earthquakes and contaminates water?  He’s a patriot – wants to make billions, but also believes in this country.
Cuomo folded to the Kennedy forces on fracking in New York State.  He got his health commissioner to issue some stupid press release.  PA fracks and is prosperous, is West Berlin; NYS is not, is East Berlin.
In Wyoming, have just found that the foul-smelling water is from bacteria, not chemicals.  The OK earthquakes are really disturbing. 
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 1, Block D: Larry Kudlow, in re: The Reagan-JFK-Trump tax cut: what will the Dems extract as a price for these tax reductions – esp corporate?  Not sure the Dems understand what a barrage is coming: tax reform, infrastructure, Obamacare, exec regulations overturned, sanctuary cities, trade movement – a hyperactive administration coming in. 
Dems will have  58-42 deficit in voting; as for deals, I just don’t know: repatriation and infrastructure I think the game is much, much bigger.   If the Dems are smart, they’ll embrace the argument for repatriation of overseas funds. Johnson used [sophisticated] politics to get [his bills] passed. 
 
Hour Two
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:  : The National Security Adviser Who Dined with Putin. Stephen F. Cohen, @NYU, @Princeton University.
“…Just last year, Flynn gave a paid speech in Moscow at the anniversary gala of Russia’s English-language state propaganda network, RT. After his speech, Flynn ate dinner seated at Putin’s table—at the right hand of the Russian President. Russian state-owned media blanketed airwaves with the image for days.
Flynn has appeared often on RT, lending his credibility as a retired General and former Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency to Putin’s destructive misinformation and propaganda efforts.
Two well-respected military leaders, retired Army General Stanley McChrystal, the top commander in Afghanistan when Flynn was running intelligence operations there, and retired Admiral Mike Mullen, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, have both reportedly asked Flynn to exercise greater caution.
Even more worrisome than Flynn’s reckless public support for Putin is his commitment to a foreign policy agenda that directly benefits Russia.
Flynn believes we can work with Russia to fight terrorist groups such as ISIS, despite evidence from the Pentagon that 90 percent of Putin’s military activity in Syria targets moderate rebel groups or worse, civilians. The Assad regime, which Flynn also envisions as a potential ally, uses chemical weapons and barrel bombs against its own civilian population. America cannot be partners with potential war criminals.
On Ukraine, Flynn appears to be unconcerned about Putin’s invasion of a peaceful neighbor, and unmoved by the tens of thousands of dead or the millions of refugees Putin is responsible for. Indeed, Flynn’s paid dinner with Putin came after most Western politicians had agreed to shun Putin internationally as a result of his invasion of Ukraine….”
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/11/21/trumps-national-security-adviser-pick-raises-serious-questions-about-putins-influence-over-us-policy.html  (1 of 4)
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 2, Block B:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus & eastwestaccord.com (2 of 3)
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus & eastwestaccord.com (3 of 4)
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 2, Block D:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus & eastwestaccord.com (4 of 4)
 
Hour Three
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 3, Block A:  Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, in re:  1884 Grover Cleveland  Surprise Anticipates 2016 Donald J. Trump Surprise. @LaraMBrownPHD, @GWSPM   http://www.usnews.com/opinion/thomas-jefferson-street/articles/2016-11-22/donald-trump-isnt-the-anomaly-political-pundits-make-him-seem
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 3, Block B: Dr. Eric Trager, Wagner Fellow, Washington Institute; and author, ARAB FALL: How the Muslim Brotherhood Won and Lost Egypt in 891 Days; in re: Egypt's Economy: Not Out of the Woods Yet.  Two weeks ago, Egypt appeared to be on the brink. The Egyptian pound, which sold at 5.9 LE/$ at the time of Egypt’s January 2011 “Arab Spring” uprising, had fallen to 8.9 LE/$ on November 2, while traders were buying dollars for 18.2 LE/$ on the black market.   
 https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/egypts-economy-not-out-woods-yet-1094
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 3, Block C:  Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:  Exciting time of change. Russia: since Reagan, the encroachment of NATO to Russia borders, whch both Reagan and Thatcher swore would not happen, and is guaranteed to stir u hornets.  Russia has rebuilt dramatically and rapidly a dynamic new society: economy; agr and industrial.     Russian alliance with China and significantly w Japan. Pres Trump will need to lower the tensions, pull the US back from the disastrous brink that [frankly] the State Dept is pressing on. Also need to see that Russia is not the major enemy.  Sad that Obama has not responded to the new present of Taiwan. Although US undermined the past president’s initiative in the East China Sea, we can see that Japan now has a hard build-up of mil and intentions. 
Japan’s confrontation wit China has caused the PRC to back down. The opposite in the South China Sea as the US has been wishy-washy. Japan ad Taiwan are essential for PRC containment.  In the South China Sea, the PRC occupies islands and deploys hyperadvanced technology and pushes US carrier groups a further thousand miles away from the south. Highly dangerous.  Vietnam, India and other ASEAN states other than Philippines will hold he line, but since Japan was getting its oil through that strait, it's negotiating with Russia to have a pipeline from Vladivostok down through the Kuriles to Japan.
Middle East:  Egypt has gone its own way, will not tolerate US interference in internal mgt; Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood)  has sanctuary n Turkey, Libya, Sudan, and in the Egyptian Sinai just south of Gaza.  Ikhwan is the godfather of al Qaeda, Da’ish, etc.   US has played Morocco and Algeria against each other; Algeria wants to have access (irrationally) to the Atlantic.  King of Morocco in Ethiopia making major investments  (its the AU host in Addis).  
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After Obama: Trump Administration Global Challenges of the Old Way. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs.      US Strategic Policy Options in a Post-Obama World .  Analysis. By Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs. US . . .
Much of the rest of the world is already on the move in policy thinking. The most reluctant to ad-just strategic policy thinking are the close historical allies of the US, most particularly, for example, Aus-tralia and some European states. This is particularly evidenced by their sense of denial of the voting changes in the US and the UK, and their belief that the US and UK must return to the status quo ante. Even Canada and Japan are stirring in their understanding that the world is changing, even if they are as yet unaware of the scope of change they require.
Several “new” macro-level realities are evident, and which are creating new and evolving dynamics:
 Russia and the People’s Republic of China have broken out of their earlier containment by the West;
 Some parts of Africa and the Middle East, now without overarching external power and economic influence to give them structure, are reverting to the influence of traditional factors. Inherent concepts of nationhood and sovereignty will begin to emerge, but will be resisted by the “modern” power structures — the post-colonial nation-state structures and borders of Africa and the Middle East — which were created in the 20th Century, and which have benefited from the exploitation of the inherent wealth of those societies. In other words, older ethnic, linguistic, and cultural structures will begin again to re-assert influence;
 New security technologies and structures are emerging which render obsolescent many older systems and doctrines, and yet capital-intensive legacy systems and thinking cannot yet be entirely abandoned. This is its own technology version of the “Thucydides Trap”: rising new security options versus declining older capabilities. As a result, the risk of miscalculation in attempting strategic confrontation has risen substantially, and in many respects this represents a generational gap in thinking as to how to technologically and doctrinally approach the transformed global architecture;
 Totally transformed population cohesion in many societies — due to population decline (in many areas), urbanization and trans-national migration — significantly impacts national productivity and economic planning, but in turn raises the viability of earlier (pre-globalism) approaches to self-sufficiency within nation-states; and so on….”
 
The EU: The richest undefended empire in history. (Now in formation: A European Defense Force)
 
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 3, Block D: Gregory Copley, StrategicStudies director; GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs; & author, UnCivilization, in re:   Trump adm needs to separate EU from Europe. Turkey has been playing a game of blackmail with Europe, started the war in Syria, pushed migrants to EU to overwhelm it and then demanded money. Greeks have been on the front line, trying to manage the huge number of refugees, bit need to help them back to their Muslim countries. EU needs to protect is borders. Some of the refugees being smuggled into Africa and ere form sub-Saharan Africa.  Modern Afr borders were created by colonials; often inappropriate, but the ancient ties, kingdoms, sultanates, chieftaincies, still exist transnationally. Nigeria and Ghana fund traditional leaders to [stabilize and run] the populations Uganda has four kings who literally govern the country. 
Similar in Europe: the overlay of globalist stuff isn't working; need to revert to familiar outlines. The whole Houthi uprising is a constant resurgence of the al-Hashemi, to whom the Prophet  (Peace be unto his name) gave control of Mecca and Median.  If Yemen breaks up it'll be along historical lines. Stabilizing to have subnational groups in charge,
Terrorism is a cultural war one makes against oneself – by a hidden state sponsor and if the govt gives in to the terrorists.  G W Bush empowered al Qaeda by equating them with major national states. Need to play down terrorism as a strategic threat; put in its place as only one component of potentially destabilizing events.
Decline in US mil capability. 
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 4, Block A:  Thanksgiving: The Holiday at the Heart of the American Experience, by Melanie Kirkpatrick
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 4, Block B:  Thanksgiving: The Holiday at the Heart of the American Experience, by Melanie Kirkpatrick
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com, in re:  Follow the Money to Earth Orbit Communications Constellations.  “…The Boeing Company has applications before the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) for the approval of two spacecraft constellations that could involve the launch of more than 3,000 communications satellites.
The company’s first application, filed in June, seeks to develop a non-geostationary satellite orbit (NGSO) fixed satellite service (FSS) system operating in the 37.5-42.5 GHz (space-to-Earth) and the 47.2-50.2 and 50.4-52.4 GHz (Earth-to-space) bands, which are collectively known as the “V-band”. The spacecraft would orbit at an altitude of 1,200 km.
“Boeing seeks authority to launch the NGSO System in progressive stages that would include an Initial Deployment configuration of 1,396 satellites within six years of license grant and, as needed to meet anticipated demand, a Final Deployment configuration of 2,956 satellites,” the company said in its application.
“The NGSO System would provide a wide range of advanced communications and Internet-based services to a state-of-the-art suite of V-band earth stations,” the application states. “The NGSO System user terminals would consist of advanced array antennas capable of generating and receiving wideband signals on any system channel, with higher throughputs supported by terminals designed for multi-channel/multi-polarization operation.”
Boeing’s second application, which it filed on Nov. 15, seeks approval for a constellation of 60 satellites that would  “provide very high speed connectivity for end-user earth stations (‘user terminals’) via the system’s gateways and associated terrestrial fiber network.”   . . .  (1 of 2)
Tuesday  22 November 2016   / Hour 4, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com, in re:  Spaee Angels!  Launch in 2017 or 2018. Boeing and SpaceX.  http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/11/17/boeing-seeks-fcc-approval-60satel... (2 of 2)
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