Photo, left: Suwałki Region (Polish: Suwalszczyzna, Lithuanian: Suvalkų kraštas) is a small region around the city of Suwałki in northeastern Poland near the border with Lithuania. The territory was disputed between Poland and Lithuania after World War I. This dispute was the main cause of the brief Polish-Lithuanian War and the Sejny Uprising. The conflict was later overshadowed by a much larger and more serious Polish-Lithuanian dispute over the Vilnius Region. The Suwałki Region remains a major center of the Lithuanian minority in Poland. It’s now the locus where, speculate geostrategists, may begin World War II.
Addendum: in Polish, Ł or ł is pronounced approximately as W is in English.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block A:  Phil Izzo, WSJ digital editor and lead editor, Real Time Economics blog, in re:  . . . Wilbur Ross said, economists are giving policymakers really bad advice.  We're back to a dreary old tax and spend. The economy is completely stagnant, again facing tax and regulatory barricades.
Yellen today testified in her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. WSJ had predicted that Yellen was, “Likely to face questions on bank regs, cyberscurity and Brexit.”   What Yellen said was,  No recession.
We've been getting the same story out of the Fed since 2009: no economic growth; GDP bounced back a tad, but jobs fell.
Is Yellen now using the R word?   Were I unkind, I might say that Yellen has completely, totally changed her position on this: a 180.
The Fed gave us all whiplash before and after the last jobs report.  We saw mkt expectations rest in weeks; then a terrible jobs report came in and they did a 180.
The slowdown is now five months old. The Fed is also worried that Brexit will roil markets.
. . . UK trade will continue apace; no problem there.  It’s not about money, it’s about liberty. EU is a socialist bureaucracy with [wholly inadequate transparency and accountability].  Let's review: Magna Carta in 1215, where a bunch of highly irritated barons confronted King John and obtained concessions. We've been learning and improving since then. [Such is not the case on the Continent; the Euros don't really get it.]
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/06/20/u-s-economy-would-be-diminished-under-trumps-economic-plan-new-analysis-says/    I was Trump defender.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436735/trump-overthrow-establishment-what-needed-fix-economy
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block B:   Phil Izzo, WSJ digital editor and lead editor, Real Time Economics blog, in re: Jobs no this month was a surprise to Wall St because it wasn’t paying attention to business indicators: stagnation.    ISM (bz activity in mfrg) —all mediocre; only consumer retail is a tad better, and even that’s all online.   In the auld days, I was chief economist at Bear Stearns, saw that  bz-to-bz activity is the bulk of the economy; the consumer is [simply] the end user.   If they're [ISM] not making money, they it not only can't expand, they can’t even pay their workers.  There’s no demand outside the US. We're in a self-fulfilling cycle.  I agreed with the first QE, not the rest.  I think Yellen is tracking the numbers correctly. 
Slash bz tax rates. Remove some of the regulatory burdens. What's blocking this economy?  People have money; they're not investing it. We’ll just have to see if a new president goes for fiscal reforms. 
A brilliant piece by John Riding: “Supply Side Slowing Points to Growth Malaise.” [?]
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block C: Robert Costa, Washington Post, in re: GOP pollsters take on numbers: Mrs Clinton’s numbers are baked in because she’s been visible for many years.  Mr Trump’s are fluid, turn on specific events.   As of tonight, based on Lewandowski’s remark to donors in NY tonight, they’re about to go into push mode.  Staff, eqpt, relationships: infrastructure build-up.    The candidate is still a sceptic about traditional campaigns; however, handing the campaign to Manafort acknowledges the need of change.  Can they raise $100 mil, or $300 mil?  Finance run by Eli Miller; based on the FCC report, . . . who wil run the superPAC and which one will be the approved one?   Clinton has hundreds of mil. Expert said that in May 2012, Romney had raised $70mil; “You can't get May back.” Manafort’s weakness is his lack of relationships with money people.  You said hat Trump’s comments on Orlando [pleased?] people, and he changed his religious prescription to a geographic one.   Trump needs to be disciplined and stay on message. He successfully focussed on economics for the primary.  Trump’s on his way to Scotland right now.  Empire Club tonight.  Lewandowski’s dismissal was in the wind for a while – had Trump’s trust but the rest of the organization or the family Manafort changed the dynamic around Trump to the point where none was with Corey.  What propels Trump’s decision: polls.  Trump is seen as a populist, but his advisors are supply-side.  Populists as are worried about no wage increase for many years.  No wall between economic populism and supply-side, Need buttoning-down in trade, and a little bit on immigration. 
When the celebrity real estate mogul declared his candidacy for president, a year ago this week, his declarations and discredited theories, conveyed in a seeming constant stream of tweets and media interviews, still had the capacity to shock. His characterization of some Mexican immigrants as murderers and rapists caused a sensation.
But now the kinds of outbursts that might have been disqualifying for any other politician, or at any other time, almost seem like standard fare — which is itself a testament to how Trump has reoriented the axis of politics and discourse. And everyone else is forced to adjust, from lawmakers in Trump’s own party to his likely Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton. “We haven’t ever seen anybody have this sort of dialogue with the electorate,” said GOP pollster David Winston.  . . .
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-orlando-trump-blows-past-political-norms/2016/06/13/f97ef168-317d-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block D:   Larry Kudlow, in re: Trump’s economic position is still evolving, We've had a lot off trade deals in the last 20 years and not fully digested them; some have damaged some sectors of the country.   Second: The US has a trade agreement with China, which – with Japan – is a serial rules-breaker. There ahs to be a way to enforce the rules. There’s a new Customs Enforcement Act, first in half a century; if a repeated rule-breaker won't improve, targeted, temporary tariffs are legitimate.  Trump says there are a lot of glitches in the TPP, it needs to be improved.   NAFTA — a good idea, but immigration, movements between countries, trucks, no enforcement of security laws: these wound up becoming part of NAFTA. This jeopardizes our safety.  These deals must be re-examined.  Trump will renegotiate; that’s needed.
Yellen has a lot of common sense and is a keen student of he numbers.  Fed is on hold for the rest of the year. Feb 2017 will be the next time we check in on Fed rate hikes. 
 
Hour Two
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: Within thee last hours, Kerry met with State dissenters, 51 of whom signed letter demanding US military strikes against Bashar al Assad and his regime in Damascus. This means: Launch the US Navy and Air Force against Assad, whose death will solve the whole thing.
The NATO Secy Gen (Jens Stoltenburg)  responded to Steinmeier, German foreign minister: Let us not remove economic sanctions before Russia responds.  He organized a press conference, pointed at what NATO is doing on Germany’s borders: warmongering.
Lt Gen Ben Hodges commands US troops in Europe; exercises in Poland.  Russians have snap exercises: cd put 20K troops instantly on their frontier  The 60-mi Suwalki Gap along Kaliningrad and Byelorus and Poland;  where WWIII will start.  
From the Atlantic Council:
The Pentagon's decision to quadruple its 2017 budget for European defence due to the perceived threat of Russian aggression and the recent RAND report noting the difficulties NATO would have defending the Baltic States, are once again bringing to the forefront the risks on Europe's frontier states. The top brass of US military forces, like U.S. Army Europe commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, have also already noted that a narrow piece of land connecting two NATO member states Poland and Lithuania – the Suwalki Gap ‒ could potentially be a target of Russian military aggression. Capture by hostile forces of Suwalki or bordering Lithuanian territory would cut off the three Baltic States from other NATO countries. Analysts have likened Suwalki to the Cold War era's Fulda Gap in Germany where NATO planned and prepared for hypothetical Soviet attacks. In addition to the region's problematic geography and militarized environment due to neighbouring Kaliningrad and Belarus, the Suwalki Gap is different and potentially an even more vulnerable target because the Kremlin could exploit the region's historic ethnic tensions.
The territory dubbed the Suwałki Gap ("przesmyk Suwałki" in Polish) is a north-eastern Polish territory bordering Lithuania in the north-east, Kaliningrad in the north-west, and Belarus in the south-east. The nearly 64 miles wide land strip in the Sejny district is also so called "Suwalki corridor" or by the Lithuanians referred to as the "Suwalki triangle" (based on the three towns of Punsk, Sejny, and Suwalki).
 . . .  Fifty-one members of State who for some reason call themselves diplomats want to bomb a country protected by Russia. If Obama attacked Syrian forces, it’d right away be an air war with Russia.  Also, it's Russia not the US that’s gained territory from ISIS; the end of Assad would see ISIS in Damascus.  These aren't dissenters; dissenters work to keep power from doing bad things; rather, the 51 are demanding a very bad deed. 
Kerry Meets With State Department Officials Critical of U.S. Syria Policy
Kerry tells Russia US patience on Syria 'very limited'
www.aljazeera.com/.../syria-kerry-tells-russia-patience-limited-16061516... Kerry, the US secretary of state, has warned the Syrian regime and its main military backer Russia to respect "frayed" ceasefire and said  . . .
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block B:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:  In St Petersburg, Putin spoke jokingly disparagingly of Lavrov, who’s been a force for peace.  Putin: Hey, Sergei, what’s going on?  . . .  You know that Sergei has been foreign minister as long as _; undertone: I gave six hours to your buddy Kerry, who now listens with interest to the State members who call for war with Russia.  Hours ago, Russian planes attacked al Nusrah, who nominally are allies of the US (even though they're al Qaeda).  Back story: Kerry promised that the US would physically separate fighters it thinks a re :”moderates” from terrorist. The US not only has not done that but is continuing to arm them  So 48 hours ago, Russia flew out and blew ‘em away. US planes came over; it was a tense moment. US planes left; Russian plane came back and obliterated the camp.
The European Union should gradually phase out sanctions imposed against Russia over the Ukraine crisis if there is substantial progress in the peace process, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said June 19, Reuters reported. His comments reflect divisions in Germany's ruling right-left coalition over policy toward Russia. Steinmeier's Social Democratic Party supports a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow than Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative bloc. Merkel has repeatedly said that sanctions can only be lifted once the peace agreement to end the conflict in Ukraine is fully implemented, not only partially. On June 17, the European Union extended for a year a ban on business dealings with Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. In addition, the bloc is expected this week to extend until the end of 2016 its broader economic sanctions on Russia over its role in the crisis in Ukraine. Steinmeier has also criticized NATO's decision to stage military maneuvers this month in Eastern Europe, warning that such moves could worsen tensions with Russia.
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block C:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:  The NATO Secy Gen (Jens Stoltenburg)  responded to Steinmeier, German foreign minister: Let us not remove economic sanctions before Russia responds.  He organized a press conference, pointed at what NATO is doing on Germany’s borders: warmongering.
 Germany doesn't like what the US is doing. Israel doesn't like what the US is doing, The French prime minister went to St P and gave a very pro-Putin speech.  Italy doesn't like this. The economic prices of the sanctions are all paid by Europe, which is hurting badly.   The deeply disgraced Victoria Nuland is on her way to Ukraine now.
NATO Article V: an American announces that Article V could be invoked for hacking!    . . . Russia has just become the largest grain exporter in the world; long has bee either 1 or co-1 energy exporter (with Saudis). 
US Nato general fears rapid Russian troop deployments
Putin was asked about US State Dept demanding that the US bomb Assad and his forces.  Putin said, “I don't know what they're doing, and it's unilateral. And if they continue, it will be war.”
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block D: :  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: . . .  Mrs Clinton is a primary proponent of this [pugilistic] American direction.   . . . I have a lot of faith in the American people. Also, Trump, who may be loathsome in many ways, is the only one who’s spoken against American warmongering against Russia.
 
Hour Three
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block A:   James Taranto, WSJ, I re;  Spinning ht e story of Orland: masterful except . ..  the word “omitted.”  Oops.  AN effort to deprive Americans of information they already had? Occam’s Razor says they just screwed it up badly.   Loretta Lynch went on all the Sunday shows the way Susan Rice had [just before her tumble from candidate for Secretary of State; since she’d made a fool of herself, she had to be demoted to Security Advisor]; she said to Chuck Todd, We’ll release the tapes minus the words “ISIS “ and “Islamic terrorism.”  The whole world mocked the White House, so they then issued a so-called unredacted transcript.  They still took out the word of God in Arabic.  Totally nuts.  . . . Culture Cops.   . . . The collateral damage of the Obama Administration is the historical record of the American people.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/war-on-women-redux-1466532916?mod=djemBestOfTheWeb
http://www.wsj.com/articles/benghazi-without-the-shame-1466441599
 
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block B:  McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, in re: Sam Nunberg was a Trump advisor; hired, then fired; then re-hired and fired again.  With Lewandowski fired, Nunberg was eager to gloat: Sorry to see anyone fired.  “Oh wait – Corey called twenty reporters the day I got fired.”  That campaign sounds like the snake pit in Gunga Din. Or Hunger Games: only one survivor left standing, everyone else lost.  
. . . First, here's some gloating from the guy who is happier than anyone else in the world about Lewandowski's ouster: https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/sam-nunberg-welcomes-lewandowski-to-fraternity-of-fired-trum?utm_term=.qeWXKaGRy#.haYOmaGyw
And here's a look at what the conservative publishing industry thinks about the prospect of a juicy tell-all book by Lewandowski: https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/dont-hold-your-breath-for-a-juicy-tell-all-from-trumps-fired?utm_term=.bbYNwdk7y#.afDq5egaR
 
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block C: E. Glen Weyl, Microsoft, in re: Recent advances in information technology are enabling new markets and revolutionizing many existing markets. For example, taxicabs used to find passengers through chance drive-bys or slow central dispatching (see the photo). Location tracking, computer navigation, and dynamic pricing now enable ride-sharing services such as Uber to offer low and consistent delay times of only a few minutes. In a recent study, Cramer and Krueger (1) show that ride-sharing has dramatically increased the usage of drivers and their cars, cutting costs for riders. The results highlight the opportunities provided by digital markets. Further efficiency gains may come from academia-industry collaborations, which could also help to ensure that the markets develop in ways that further the public interest.  http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6289/1056.full (1 of 2)
 
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block D:  E. Glen Weyl, Microsoft, in re: Recent advances in information technology are enabling new markets and revolutionizing many existing markets. For example, taxicabs used to find passengers through chance drive-bys or slow central dispatching (see the photo). Location tracking, computer navigation, and dynamic pricing now enable ride-sharing services such as Uber to offer low and consistent delay times of only a few minutes. In a recent study, Cramer and Krueger (1) show that ride-sharing has dramatically increased the usage of drivers and their cars, cutting costs for riders. The results highlight the opportunities provided by digital markets. Further efficiency gains may come from academia-industry collaborations, which could also help to ensure that the markets develop in ways that further the public interest.  http://science.sciencemag.org/content/352/6289/1056.full (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block A:  The Paper Trail: An Unexpected History of a Revolutionary Invention, by Alexander Monro  (1 of 4)
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block B:  The Paper Trail: An Unexpected History of a Revolutionary Invention, by Alexander Monro  (2 of 4)
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block C:  The Paper Trail: An Unexpected History of a Revolutionary Invention, by Alexander Monro  (3 of 4)
Tuesday  21 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block D:  The Paper Trail: An Unexpected History of a Revolutionary Invention, by Alexander Monro  (4 of 4)
..  ..  ..