Painting, left: Les Articles de capitulation de Montréal, négociés entre le Gouverneur-Général de la Nouvelle-France, Pierre de Rigaud de Vaudreuil, et le Major-General Jeffrey Amherst au nom des couronnes française et britannique, consacrent la reddition de la ville de Montréal au cour de la guerre de Sept Ans. La signature du document, qui est rédigé en français, a lieu le 8 septembre 1760 sous la tente du camp britannique devant la ville de Montréal qui accepte de capituler1. La conséquence immédiate de cette signature est la retraite de l'armée française et l'instauration d'un régime militaire britannique sur le pays, qui se prolonge jusqu'en février 1763, alors que le roi de France cède définitivement au roi de Grande-Bretagne le « Canada avec toutes ses dépendances2 » via le Traité de Paris de 1763.  In the matter of capitulation, see Hour 3, Block B, and all of Hour 2.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
 
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Phil Izzo, WSJ lead editor, Real Time Economics blog, in re: US economy trying to get to a 3% growth.  Averaging lower than it was in 2014; broadly, the long-term tend is solid – not great, but solid.  Job growth was terrible in March, but it's still at a pretty good pace.  I'm a bit more worried than Larry is about right now.  "Marginally attached" – working, but looking for a better job. Marty Feldstein's piece in the Journal today.  Consumer spending plus investment – c + i  - is growing.   Current and recent graduates are unprecedentedly unemployed.  Young people getting college are getting jobs at a lower pay rate than were graduates of only a few years ago.  The less you make when you’re younger, the less you make over the course of your life.  Coming out of a big recession we should have grown at 5% - we're not growing, investing, or producing,  Very bad.  Comes from popular fear of bad economy.  Small biz continues to complain about taxes, health care, and oppressive regulations; at the same time, the economy is really slow; all together, works against the some who'd take risks and there'd be more investment.   Jimmy P: Net business formations have collapsed in recent years. There's something wrong here  We've gotta change the Washington environment – too many taxes, too much regulating, and pols' beating up bz.    Despite their [recent misdeeds], a healthy economy needs banks. 
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 1, Block B: Phil Izzo, WSJ lead editor, Real Time Economics blog, in re: . . These announcements from Fed presidents become quite confusing, In the 80s and 90s we thought that low inflation {"price stability") was good for growth. Now the Fed seems to think that inflation is good.  The Fed needs to speak with one voice, that of the Chairman.    Looks as though rates will raise in September; if that's the case, the dollar will get stronger in coming weeks. Dollar has rallied 20% over the last year, which I endorse; dollar was up 1.1% today on he new housing starts.  I’d like the dollar index at 100 and keep it there.  Can the strength of the dollar be a proxy for the American economy?  Probably.   Walmart complained today about that as its overseas sales slightly sank.  Sometimes the dollar exchange rate goes with Fed policy.  A burr under my collar: the notion that US companies are losing money on intl accounting transactions is a fiction – the money never comes home, it stays overseas.
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Gregory Zuckerman, WSJ & author, The Greatest Trade Ever, & The Frackers: The Outrageous Inside Story of the New Billionaire Wildcatters, in re: . . . The Saudis were sick of losing market share to the frackers.  27 Jan:  Saudi Arabia secretly increased its oil production to 9 mil Bbl day . . . " Yesterday Goldman cut its price forecast - $55/Bbl by 2020.  We'll have zombie firms – should go out of bz but won't; Fed feeds Wall Street money which it will put into the zombies.  The bigger issue is bank loans, not too much of a problem because the covenant-like loans have been so weak.  Easy money, free money –still companies' getting their hands on cash and limping along.  Rigs are down 50% in the last year.  If we stabilize at $70/Bbl, we'll see more. Is the fracking technology getting more efficient? Yes, so the cost is coming down. Technology, innovation, efficiency 0f the rest of he world is jealous, but only the US has this right now. Also, they're focussing on their best fields. Break-even used to be $75, now it's more like $55. 
Oil scaled fresh heights for the year on Tuesday, topping $68 a barrel, with Saudi Arabia raising official selling prices in response to stronger demand.  North Sea Brent, the international benchmark, has now rebounded by 50 per cent since falling to a five-year low near $45 a barrel in January, as traders look beyond the current well-supplied market to focus on growing consumption and a slowdown in US output.
     Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, indicated on Tuesday that it has no plans to curb its own production, which has risen above 10m barrels per day, as it moves to expand its share of the market. The kingdom increased its own official selling prices (OSPs) to refineries in Europe and the US on Tuesday and held them steady to Asia — a move taken by traders as illustrating Saudi Arabia’s confidence in growing global demand.
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 1, Block D: Larry Kudlow, in re: White House has threatened to veto a crucial trade bill; the bi-partisan measure "a poison pill,"  said Jack Lew.  Sabotage aimed at China; but the yuan has gone up 40% in the last several years.  If you tax something less, then you'll get more of it, including world trade.  Tariffs are taxes. If you lower tariffs, it's good for consumers and business. It's nuts to insulate ourselves in this protectionist corner. / Mrs Clinton in Iowa: "Do you support Elizabeth _ and Harry Reid, or the GOP and the president on this trade agreement?"  "I've been for and against different trade agreements."  --- there's no leadership here. Anent PP: no one is defending banks.   I won't defend all banks all the time; but eventually you have to come to a truce.  Need to have small, medium, regional and large banks. 
Hour Two
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus; author: Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War, & The Victims Return: Survivors of the Gulag after Stalin; in re:  . . .  Kerry went to visit Putin, who gave him four hours (unheard-of), then was followed by the disgraced Victoria Nuland, who cursed foully in Ukraine. It's said that Kerry mission was to admit that the White House policy (Pres Obama: "I'll turn Russia in to a pariah state") toward Russia has failed. If so, what’s the new policy? 
   Poroshenko has just made provocative statements.  Donetsk airport, having been shelled into disaster, looks like a moonscape. Part of the failed policy for the last year was its failure to understand, its misinterpretation of the nature of the Kiev govt  called it democratic, which it emphatically is not. Washington thought that since it had created the Kiev govt, it could control it.  However, Pyatt is called the "real head." In response to Poroshenko's intemperate recent statement, Kerry said, "We all support the Minsk II accords" – which mandates a ceasefire, then direct negotiations between Kiev and the rebels. It's Kiev who’s repeatedly violated this. Finally, for the first time, an American official (Kerry) has reproached Ukraine.
The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations; May 2015.  A Report on an Interdisciplinary Wargame conducted by the U.S. Army War College; Carlisle, Pennsylvania http://csis.org/files/attachments/150518_Russia_War_Games_Report.pdf
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus (2 of 4)   Kerry's pointless diplomacy in Russia  From the moment John Kerry's trip to Russian President Vladimir Putin's summer ... /    A Diplomatic Victory, and Affirmation, for Putin /   Kerry Is So Very Nice to Putin /  Nato to counter 'hybrid warfare'  Nato says that Russia is backing rebels in Ukraine - a claim denied by ... of Nato troops on their soil to act as a deterrent to the Russian military.  http://sputniknews.com/politics/20150515/1022157700.html / US Authorizes $300Mln in Lethal Defensive Aid, Training to Ukraine ...  The United States authorized providing Ukraine defensive lethal aid and training that the country needs to protect its sovereignty, US Senate ...
(FT) This discussion of nukes and the possibility of moving nukes into certain areas or employing nukes if something had not gone correctly in Crimea and all these other things, which have been put out there — this is not responsible language from a nuclear nation,” he said at meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Antalya, Turkey.  Nato diplomats have been struck by Russia’s aggressive discussion of the use of nuclear weapons, noting a pattern of threats that were rarely seen even at the height of the Cold War. It is prompting a potential rethink of the military alliance’s planning on deterrence and nuclear doctrine, in part to ensure no miscalculations are made in a crisis.
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 2, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus (3 of 4). The Herszenhorn NYT piece that the US is backing down, but can easily reverse itself.  The Herszenhorn piece in the NYT that Kiev is corrupt. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/18/world/europe/in-ukraine-corruption-concerns-linger-a-year-after-a-revolution.html?_r=1
A Diplomatic Victory, and Affirmation, for Putin  By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN   A visit by Secretary of State John Kerry was seen as an olive branch and an acknowledgment that Russia is too important to ignore.
Lead news is that the RU has cut the air bridge to Afghanistan.   We do not have good alternatives. Lead news is that Kiev claims it has captured two Russian soldiers.  Ukraine Says It Has Captured 2 Russian Soldiers By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN   The Kremlin repeated its longstanding denial that any Russian troops had been deployed across the border, despite growing evidence to the contrary.
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, NYU & Princeton professor Emeritus (4 of 4).    . . .  for the first time in his many years in Russia, he sees the emergence of a new nationalism – native, not from above – and it's anti-American.  The turning point was Pres Obama's equating Russia with ebola and ISIS.  Russian people said they understood that Washington regarded Russia as an actual enemy.  See an article in The Nation.  The rhetoric that comes out of he president's mouth has become a new reality in Russia. Putin has fostered nationalism/patriotism, but it wasn't anti-American.  After Kerry and Nuland left, the Deputy Foreign Minister said, "We appreciate the visits of Secretaries Kerry and Nuland, but we have principled positions that are not bargaining chips." 
The Future of U.S.-Russian Relations; May 2015. A Report on an Interdisciplinary Wargame conducted by the U.S. Army War College; Carlisle, Pennsylvania http://csis.org/files/attachments/150518_Russia_War_Games_Report.pdf
Batchelor and Cohen Podcast — Kerry comes to Sochi  Media Unveiled  The world may be a safer place because of it, and John Batchelor and Russian expert Stephen Cohen discuss what they think transpired.
Hour Three
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 3, Block A:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review & Pirates fan, in re: Mrs Clinton's mockery of the press in Iowa. "It's almost like watching a train wreck. Awkward to watch her not answer questions; and when she does, to do it flippantly." Sidney Blumenthal was denied a government job by Congress so he worked at the Clinton Foundation.  I've been told by several Clinton advisors that she'll give zero interview to big media between now and this time next year, after which she will have secured the nomination.
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Josh Rogin, Bloomberg View, in re: Kerry Helped Free U.S. 'Spies' Trapped in Ukraine
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 3, Block C:   Sarah Westwood, Washington Examiner, in re: Bill's fees spiked when Hillary was Secretary  http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/bill-doubled-speaking-fees-from-foreign-groups-while-hillary-was-secretary-of-state/article/2564699 /  Congress to subpoena Clinton Foundation official http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2564697
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 3, Block D: LouAnn Hammond, DrivingtheNation.com, in re:  Time Lapse Shows Bosch Fitting Its Own Self-Driving Technology to ...
 Today at its week-long annual International Automotive Press briefing in Boxberg, near Stuttgart in Germany, the company announced that it ...
 /  Autocar Professional

Bosch: 62nd International Automotive Press Briefing 2015
 The Bosch Group's largest business sector, Mobility Solutions, ... the Bosch International Automotive Press Briefing in Boxberg, Germany (May ...

Bosch's auto sector global sales up 13% in Q1
Hour Four
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 4, Block A:  James Taranto, Wall Street Journal, in re: Garbage In, Benghazi Out   The hrod17 approach to intelligence. What happens when top foreign-policy officials make life-or-death decisions based on faulty intelligence from self-interested sources? The example we have in mind is less than a decade old.
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 4, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, in re:
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 4, Block C:  Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: The New York Times recently published two wildly celebrated articles by journalist Sarah Maslin Nir. The first article, “The Price of Nice Nails,” describes in painful and accurate detail the trials and tribulations in the manicurist trade in New York City and elsewhere. The second article, “Perfect Nails, Poisoned Workers,” documents the health risks to which manicurists in the trade are exposed. The two articles have provoked a huge public reaction. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced “Emergency Measures” and immediate “salon by salon” enforcement to make sure that health abuses and “wage theft” are blocked. The salons that do not comply will be shut down. Though Nir’s articles have been met with widespread approval, it is necessary to slow down and ask whether her revelations, even if true, justify Governor Cuomo’s actions. My fear is that his vigorous enforcement efforts will leave matters worse off than before for the manicurists…  http://www.hoover.org/research/political-economy-nail-salons  (1 of 2)
Tuesday 19 May 2015  / Hour 4, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover Institution, Chicago Law, in re: The New York Times recently published two wildly celebrated articles by journalist Sarah Maslin Nir. The first article, “The Price of Nice Nails,” describes in painful and accurate detail the trials and tribulations in the manicurist trade in New York City and elsewhere. The second article, “Perfect Nails, Poisoned Workers,” documents the health risks to which manicurists in the trade are exposed. The two articles have provoked a huge public reaction. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has announced “Emergency Measures” and immediate “salon by salon” enforcement to make sure that health abuses and “wage theft” are blocked. The salons that do not comply will be shut down. Though Nir’s articles have been met with widespread approval, it is necessary to slow down and ask whether her revelations, even if true, justify Governor Cuomo’s actions. My fear is that his vigorous enforcement efforts will leave matters worse off than before for the manicurists…  http://www.hoover.org/research/political-economy-nail-salons  (2 of 2)
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