The John Batchelor Show

Tuesday 14 June 2016

Air Date: 
June 14, 2016

Photo, left:
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Larry Kudlow, CNBC senior advisor; & Cumulus Media radio
 
Hour One
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block A: Larry Kudlow, in re: . . . Last month’s bad jobs number:  has been declining for five months from 280,00 to 110,000 on a three-month moving average.   . . . Pocketbooks, job outlooks, wages – the cause of econ0mic populism in this election No real wage  increase or investment since 2000.
Global Economy Week Ahead: Fed and BOJ Meetings, Eurozone Industrial Output  This week, meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will set the mood in global markets as they consider tweaking their monetary policies. And U.S. and eurozone data will offer clues to whether the two major economies are gathering momentum.
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block B:  Sudeep Reddy, Wall Street Journal economics editor, in re: on Wed will be on video to talk about the FOMC meeting and where we are with short-term rate and direction for the rest of 2016.  Tonight, overview of global confusions The bond market holds that the Fed will not move tomorrow.  Clear that the Fed’s ueber-alles mantra is caution.  Fed’s leading index has been falling, and also has an overall jobs index that’s declining.    . . .  The problem now is a sudden slowdown; see same in autumn 2007; a few month later we had a recession.  . . . 38,000 jobs a month [?}  Return on capital is near zero on ten years – need 4% or 5% for a healthy economy; and not just here but globally.  . . . The US is a refuge in the sense that the dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, but Japan and much of Europe have serious demographic problems.  . .  The Fed saved us in 2008 with a burst of liquidity, but now, fiscal blockage, I think the Fed needs to send out an SOS to Congress.  Yes, regulatory issues and others; same in Europe. This is a problem in democratic societies where we had over the reins to unelected officials because they don't have to face the polls.  Eventually, Yellin will be able to pull interest rates up a little bit, but I doubt much more.   http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-economy-week-ahead-fed-and-boj-meetin...
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block C: Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus (George Mason University), in re: Fiscal solvency of the states within the US.  The worst US states for economic condition?   Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut; New York, Maine California and PR.  A bill opening union contracts, which constitute a major part of PR’s problems. To work, need a really strong control board. Also, special interests have got huge benefits for many years; need to tie their hands so actual member get the benefit/ If you can’t do these things, then I'd be against bankruptcy. The real level of unfunded liabilities: PR is completely in the red— dramatic – but Connecticut isn't far behind.  Said that 49% of pensions and benefits are unfunded. What kind of discount?  Oops – higher than 49%;  in CT, using 7 or 8% — that’s crazy. They overspend, overtax, overpromise public employees and use acctg gimmicks to show an incorrectly small unfunded liability CT is ‘way over 49%   . . .  Cook Co jails: they hold people in detention for two or tree years for minor crimes; here’s no control even though they often walk away after court. Returns to the unhealthy marriage of the govt and special interests. We need to clear up debt to GDP: mostly reforming transfers and the pay of public employees. Also: 80% of fiscal adjustments fail because they continue catering to special interests.   Scott Walker: teacher’s unions and __.  His labor plan was very important. 
Florida has a healthy fiscal condition (is now No.6). It dropped because Nebraska has been going up.  FL rates very high on cash solvency: have a lot of cash on hand to cover short-term liabilities. Also rank high in how taxes and spending are in connection with  . . .   No. 11 is Ohio, a big, populous statw that’s doing well in comparative fiscal solvency.  However, it uses a lot of fiscal gimmicks. 
http://townhall.com/columnists/veroniquederugy/2016/06/09/in-the-fiscal-...
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 1, Block D: Larry Kudlow, in re: Brexit!  Voting next week, 23 June.  I don’t think it's a major event for  the US. The Wall St establishment is grim and fearful, but I think unnecessarily. . . . I think it’s not about money or trade; it's about democracy, self-governance, autonomy These are precious, precious principles that need to be preserved. The phony EU parliament will exercise more and more power. David Cameron M and Tory leader, led the charge to stay in. Boris Johnson: wants to lead.  “The spill” – to change leaders without an election.  Tonight, Brexit has a 7% lead.  Brexit proponents have made their case based on self-rule. The average Briton dopes not want to be governed by a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels. The Stay crew is using hyperbole to scare the populace. In fact, it’s inly the elites talking to each other –they’re multinational, have little pride in Britain, nor in Magna Carta, which started the long process of English common law, private property rights — none of which obtains in Europe, where they have the Napoleonic Code [heaven help them]. 
Hour Two
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block A:  Stephen F. Cohen, Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton; also Board of American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re:   The ceremony of the new cold war has taken the face of troops on borders. SFC: When I was young I studied Marx, who was desperate to get volume one out before the imminent revolution. I feel somewhat the same: I hold US policy 80% responsible as we creep toward war with Russia – not so much because of Ukraine. Syria, etc, but the compression by NATO of Russia from sea to sea.  Although NATO presents this as “exercises” and rotational, it's intended to be the creation of a permanent, very-large-scale garrison presence, incl missile defense, radars. At the very least in Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and probably Poland and Romania – and now talk of garrisons in Norway and Sweden, which aren’t even in NATO; this is unprecedented.   Not surprisingly, Russia is countermobilizing — shifting its military power from central Russia to western Russia. Yesterday, Putin called up the Russian reservists, who normally are called up only for practice.  Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – constant worry about nuclear war ; they set a little clock , How close are we to midnight?  It's now at two minutes to midnight – because of the mil build-up on Russia’s borders    Vladimir Rothkin (US citizen) has taught at Harvard and elsewhere wrote a blog:  “Russians are saying that Putin needs to be more assertive or aggressive; are calling for Russia to have sent its mil in to Ukraine years ago, and in Georgia in 2008 should just have gone on and taken Tbilisi, as bing I Moscow’s back yard. As for currently: Putin shd target medium-range missiles on American missile installations. [cf, US missile in Turkey].”  Putin hails from St Petersburg.   This eqpt is within artillery range of St Petersburg.
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, eastwestaccord.com, in re: Rex Tillerson, ExxonMobil CEO, attending a big dinner in Peter with the head of Rosneft.   WH saying that NATO is aggressing because Putin wants to invade easterly in order to destabilize and destroy the European Union (which is openly nuts).   “Weaponized information”:  the anti-Putin forces accuse him of this. Of course, all sides have been doing this for decades. In truth, Putin has been cleaving  as well as he can to soft power.   
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block C:    Stephen F. Cohen, eastwestaccord.com, in re:   . . .  FBI went to meet Tsarnaev mother , who said her son was a fine person, and FBI left it at that, thereafter ignoring formal Russian warnings about Tsarnaevs.  In vetting possible jihadists, one important source of help could be Russia. American officials’s failure to utilize this resource is an impeachable offense. 
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 2, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, eastwestaccord.com, in re: Russia.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_132275.htm  NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg briefed media on Monday (13 June 2016) on the agenda of this week’s meetings of NATO Defence Ministers. “Over the next two days, we will take a series of important decisions to strengthen our collective defence and enhance our cooperation with partners,” said Mr. Stoltenberg. He stressed that these decisions will pave the way for the Warsaw Summit in July.
We will agree to deploy by rotation four robust multinational battalions in the Baltic states and in Poland,” said the Secretary General. He underlined that these battalions are part of a much bigger shift in NATO’s defence and deterrence posture, including a larger NATO Response Force, a new Spearhead Force and 8 new small headquarters in the eastern part of the Alliance. “All together this strikes the right balance between a greater ability to reinforce, and boost our forward presence,” he added.
NATO has also taken action to ensure that Allied troops can move faster across Europe, for exercises or reinforcements, if needed. “Last month, the Spearhead Force conducted an exercise which showed how far we have come. One thousand troops and four hundred military vehicles moved from Spain to Poland within four days,” said Mr. Stoltenberg. He stressed that NATO will continue to work to improve freedom of movement for Allied troops and equipment, because speed can make the difference when a crisis emerges. 
The Secretary General underscored that Allies must spend more on defence to sustain this shift in NATO’s defence posture. He highlighted that, following a long decline in defence spending, 2015 was the first year after many when the Alliance registered a small increase in defence spending. “Our estimates for 2016 show a further increase,” said Mr. Stoltenberg. The annual real change stands at around 1.5 percent, an increase of over 3 billion dollars, with twenty Allies planning to spend more on defence in real terms this year. “So this is real progress. After many years of going in the wrong direction, we are starting to go into the right direction,” he said. 
This week, Defence Ministers will also discuss how NATO can expand its efforts to project stability beyond its borders, strengthening local forces in the fight against terrorism. “We will also consider providing AWACS surveillance planes to support the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL,” said the Secretary General. He added that ministers will assess what more NATO can do in the wider Mediterranean Sea, for instance in support of the European Union’s Operation Sophia. 
On Tuesday, Ministers will discuss the future of cooperation between NATO and the European Union, together with High Representative Mogherini and Ministers from Finland and Sweden. Mr. Stoltenberg noted that ministers will also explore additional assistance for Ukraine and Georgia. “On Wednesday, we will meet the Ukrainian Defence Minister in the NATO-Ukraine Commission. We are concerned about the security situation, amid continued ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine,” said Mr. Stoltenberg.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-government-hackers-penetrated-dnc-stole-opposition-research-on-trump/2016/06/14/cf0
 
Hour Three
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block A:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and The Hill, in re:   A little revolution got in the way, however, and the plan fell apart.
Yet an invisible kinship has always existed among the people who live within sight of this mountain ridge, starting with the earliest settlers who staked out what then was the “Wild West.”  It was here that a  . . .
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block B:   Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and The Hill, in re:   Clinton Widens National Lead  A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll finds Hillary Clinton now leading Donald Trump nationally by seven points, 49% to 41%.   “Clinton narrowed Trump’s lead among men and white voters to single digits over the past week and now leads Trump by 25 points — 58% to 33% — among voters describing themselves as moderate.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/us/politics/bernie-sanders-campaign.html  Thus far, the only certainty is that he and Mrs. Clinton plan to hold a private meeting on Tuesday. Mr. Sanders is under mounting pressure to suspend his all-but-impossible bid for the nomination, but he has given no indication that he plans to drop out.
Several people close to the senator, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private discussions, say he will try to get assurances from Mrs. Clinton that she will fight for many of his campaign policy proposals, including a $15-an-hour federal minimum wage, a jobs program tied to repairing the country’s infrastructure, and tuition-free public colleges and universities. At this point, Mr. Sanders is refusing to concede defeat and release his delegates to vote for Mrs. Clinton, which some think could avoid a sense of disunity at the Democratic convention. His refusal could be a negotiating tactic for winning concessions on the party’s platform.
Charlie Cook: “If anything that either Clinton or Trump says or does turns out to be a determining factor, Trump is more likely to play that role. Whether one likes or dislikes Hillary Clinton, or agrees or disagrees with her on issues, she is a tested and experienced candidate and considered a safe pair of hands.”
“Trump, by con­trast, is a gren­ade with the pin halfway out. The pos­sib­il­ity of a sud­den ex­plo­sion is nev­er far away, and this pro­spect gives sleep­less nights to Re­pub­lic­an elec­ted of­fi­cials and strategists. GOP poll­sters are prob­ably do­ing a land-of­fice busi­ness these days, sur­vey­ing states and dis­tricts to ad­vise their Re­pub­lic­an cli­ents ex­actly how they should po­s­i­tion them­selves—wheth­er they should stand close to Trump or dig a pro­tect­ive trench.”
First Read: “Remember when Trump advisers were suggesting that their candidate would back off or moderate his temporary Muslim ban? Well, there’s no backing off after yesterday’s speech. And it raises a series of questions for every Republican out there, including House GOP leaders… Do you support or oppose Trump’s speech? Do you support his temporary Muslim ban? Do you believe that the U.S. should suspend all immigration from places where there is a proven history of terrorism? And do you agree with Trump’s insinuation — from his remarks Monday morning — that President Obama is somehow complicit in the Orlando mass shooting?
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block C:   Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re:  Venezuela Oil Production Drops Sharply in May  Venezuela registered its biggest monthly oil-production decline in a decade in May, according to OPEC data released Monday, signaling further trouble for a country already enduring severe economic hardship.
Brazil High Court Strips Ex-President Lula da Silva of Privileged Standing Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a major legal setback to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, referring a corruption investigation involving him back to a crusading lower-court judge. (1 of 2)
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 3, Block D:  Mary Anastasia O’Grady, WSJ, in re:  Venezuela Oil Production Drops Sharply in May  Venezuela registered its biggest monthly oil-production decline in a decade in May, according to OPEC data released Monday, signaling further trouble for a country already enduring severe economic hardship.
Brazil High Court Strips Ex-President Lula da Silva of Privileged Standing Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a major legal setback to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, referring a corruption investigation involving him back to a crusading lower-court judge. (2 of 2)
 
Hour Four
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block A:  Bonnie Buratti , NASA JPL, in re:  https://science.jpl.nasa.gov/people/Buratti/
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block B:  Jerry Hendrix, CNAS, in re:
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Blue Origin will webcast live its next flight of New Shepard   The competition heats up: Blue Origin’s fourth test flight of its New Shepard suborbital spacecraft will take place this Friday, and will be webcast live.  No time announced yet, but the place to see it will be the Blue Origin website.
Cygnus to depart ISS, then start a fire  A fire in space: Orbital ATK’s Cygnus capsule is scheduled to leave ISS on Tuesday, when shortly thereafter it will begin a controlled fire experiment.
“Saffire-I provides a new way to study a realistic fire on a spacecraft. This hasn’t been possible in the past because the risks for performing such studies on crewed spacecraft are too high. Instruments on the returning Cygnus will measure flame growth, oxygen use and more. Results could determine microgravity flammability limits for several spacecraft materials, help to validate NASA’s material selection criteria, and help scientists understand how microgravity and limited oxygen affect flame size. The investigation is crucial for the safety of current and future space missions.  The departure is scheduled for 9 am (eastern), and will be aired live by NASA.  http://www.space.com/17933-nasa-television-webcasts-live-space-tv.html#sthash.2DjFjJqY.dpuf  (1 of 2)
Tuesday  14 June 2016   / Hour 4, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Blue Origin will webcast live its next flight of New Shepard   The competition heats up: Blue Origin’s fourth test flight of its New Shepard suborbital spacecraft will take place this Friday, and will be webcast live.  No time announced yet, but the place to see it will be the Blue Origin website.
Cygnus to depart ISS, then start a fire  A fire in space: Orbital ATK’s Cygnus capsule is scheduled to leave ISS on Tuesday, when shortly thereafter it will begin a controlled fire experiment.
“Saffire-I provides a new way to study a realistic fire on a spacecraft. This hasn’t been possible in the past because the risks for performing such studies on crewed spacecraft are too high. Instruments on the returning Cygnus will measure flame growth, oxygen use and more. Results could determine microgravity flammability limits for several spacecraft materials, help to validate NASA’s material selection criteria, and help scientists understand how microgravity and limited oxygen affect flame size. The investigation is crucial for the safety of current and future space missions.  The departure is scheduled for 9 am (eastern), and will be aired live by NASA.  http://www.space.com/17933-nasa-television-webcasts-live-space-tv.html#sthash.2DjFjJqY.dpuf  (2 of 2)