The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 9 July 2015

Air Date: 
July 09, 2015

Image, left: The Druze faith began as a movement in Ismailism that was heavily influenced by Greek philosophy and Gnosticism and opposed certain religious and philosophical ideologies that were present during that epoch. 
The faith was preached by Hamza ibn 'Alī ibn Ahmad, an Ismaili mystic and scholar. He came to Egypt in 1014 and assembled a group of scholars and leaders from across the world to establish the Unitarian movement. The order's meetings were held in the Raydan Mosque, near the Al-Hakim Mosque.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts:  Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re: "Any agreement reached will ease sanctions on Iran, and Russia will surely never agree to reinstate them, no matter how outrageous Iranian cheating on the deal.  So sanctions will be unrecoverable.  Since much of the Iranian economy is organized to benefit the Revolutionary Guards and citizen militia, they will be the primary beneficiaries of the $100 billion in revenue resulting from lifting just the nuclear weapons related sanctions. An Iran deal would solve a political problem for President Obama: he committed to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon yet so very clearly does not want to have to use military force against Iran. A nuclear deal solves his problem as a political matter, but has already created security problems as regional allies hedge against his intentions.”
This agreement does not address Teheran's support of Bashar al Assad, Hezbollah, for Sudan, for Houthis in Yemen, for jihadists and plain crooks in Afghanistan, for a multiplicity of bad actors. The surrounding states are understandably seriously worried.  Iran has been willfully deceptive and out intell is woefully inadequate. We have not figured out many of the most important matters. Need unannounced inspections of nuclear sites.  Revolutionary Guard has shown up in Iraq, Lebanon, North Korea – he's the face of destabilization. The neighboring nations see that the US does nothing, cares nothing, about his globe-trotting
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Mary Kissel, in re: Mrs Clinton doesn't appear to have a way to express her dreams, her intentions.  She keeps saying, "Later; I'll get there."  Her campaign so far is grim, mean, divisive and vague. The specifics are bad – no policy. Nothing the but the vast right-wing conspiracy – a golden oldie; a 1990 hit.  Deep pool of scandals. She's had to move far left to stave off a challenge from the far left (Bernie Sanders).    TPP.  Gender. Fiiscal rectitude, investment, infrastructure. The mistakes ("The lies?")  How many digital devices did Mrs Clinton use to communicate with her private server.  Does she not know that an iPad is a separate device from an iPhone?  The whopper: "I never had a subpoena from Trey Goudy." Next day he had to announce it; now it's posted publicly.  She kept bobbin her head; could not move the story from last February about the server. These questions will come up again and again. Chinese hack has exploded to 80 million federal employees.
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Arthur Waldron, Lauder Professor of International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania, in re: Xi Jinping.  Decline in economy – now made illegal.  Russia, India. Ufa meeting. In 1924, stock market problem, sent army on to the trading floor. In China, the govt is the guarantor of last resort for everything. When people start losing lots and lots of money – this was not the plan – the govt thinks, "We gotta do something, quick!"  However, no one can control a market.  When you try, it [becomes a mess].  Was not a part of ht idea of the booming stock mkt as to sell state-owned shares so the elite could get rich.  Network of collateral, under-the-table loans, stuff pledged three times.  Legitimacy: there is none. The markets or rising economy constitute the only legitimacy, but that ain't working right now.   In China, it's not what gets done but who gets to be in charge of doing something.  The guys in charge see that now a guy can sit n front of a TV camera with a chart that moves every few seconds; the Party is unprepared for real information like that.  The Depression joke was that when the shoeshine boy gives you stock tips, you know the market is nearing its top. Eight-thousand-mile underground railroad – under the Bering Straits, across Alaska and Canada to the US. The US had this tendency in the 1800s & 1900s – we put enormous tunnels under the Hudson River, built the Hoover Dam, etc.  Xi has proclaimed it illegal for the market to drop,. 
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 1, Block D:  Liz Peek, The Fiscal Times & Fox, in re: "The 13-page plan [see: WSJ.com] submitted is likely to determine [Greece's future]."  It's not so much about the money; it's about Greece's behavior.  Austerity can mean cutting off pensioners, etc., and then the regs that could in fact make a difference: if you wan to attract business, be prosperous, you have to attract businesses, Greece has done the opposite, Greece has somewhat reformed in the last few years, but the current govt has put the kibosh on the cleaning-up. "We like drinking retsina and dancing all night."  The northern countries are demanding more care while Syriza is aiming at tax hikes, while it's a point of natl pride not to pay your taxes. One-third of the economy is underground.  Solution?  When the euro was put in place, there was never any consideration given to a country's leaving.  "Stick together no matter what." Yet no fiscal or monetary policy to respond to such crises as we’re seeing now.  This has brought into high relief the frailties of the EU, and the left in Italy and Spain will say, Why should we do onerous things and reject austerity measures. 
Greece still had outsized deficits that placed it on the OECD fringe; in 2013 the country reported a budget gap of 12.3 percent, compared to 4.2 percent for the group overall. 
But, in 2014 that figure had declined to under 5 percent. Also in 2014, many saw signs of recovery. Tourism and tourism-related businesses were thriving, but most analysts projected that real progress required staunching the exodus of businesses fleeing Greece, many to set up shop in cheaper lower-cost neighbor Bulgaria, a shift that began in the mid-1990s. It’s not just businesses leaving Greece. Residents have for years moved elsewhere, seeking better jobs and opportunity.
It may be that the EU will be better off if officials can figure out a way to string Greece along. Some reduction in the country’s outstanding debt may be required, as the IMF has suggested. But, until the Greek people get serious about saving their nation, about rebuilding their competitiveness and paying their taxes, we will be revisiting this problem indefinitely.
The 13-page plan, submitted to Greece’s eurozone creditors and Parliament in Athens Thursday night, is likely to determine the country’s future in Europe’s currency union. Eurozone finance ministers and European leaders are set to assess the proposals during crisis meetings on Saturday and Sunday.
The proposals suggest that increases and simplifications of Greece’s sales-tax system should create revenue of around 1% of gross domestic product annually, according to a copy of the plan seen by The Wall Street Journal. / http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2015/07/08/Greece-Self-Inflicted-Wounds-Careless-Country#sthash.J2rR3PZ5.dpuf
Hour Two
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Michael Wilner, Washington bureau chief, Jerusalem Post, in re: report on the still-ongoing Iranian negotiations in Vienna.  We learn that the difficult parts of the deal are about releasing money, and the arms deals.  Delay or avoid having to give specifics, but Congress is growing dissatisfied, including the left.  Seems that Zarif and Kerry get into screaming matches; a key point is not to give the Iranians the upper hand, which we often do. When they came to New York, US dips went to Zarif's home to meet – and symbolism is critical. Extremely bad decision.  the Deal s now past deadline, so Congress will have 60 days too study the deal – but it may be that nothing is written down. If they wait till after Congressional recess, it reverts to 30 days.
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Behnam ben Taleblu, FDD, in re:   IAEA and the Supreme Leader. MOPs: massive ordnance penetrators.  . . .  All the Iranian concessions are limited, and specifically named as "voluntary."  Iranian tem has its system down pat. Rouhani does what the Supreme Leader dictates; Khamenei is the best barometer in the negotiations from 2013 till now.  Red lines: Khamenei has twice added to his own redlines in 2014, up to eleven.  He keeps finding out that the West [US] wants a deal a lot more than Iran does.  Persians and Azeris are masters of the bazaar – offering of prices, selling at the stall.  A lot of Rouhani's negotiating team come from the bazaaris, not academe.  Tactical adjustments, not strategic.   Say that ballistic missiles are off the table; now they bring them back with an "increased price."  Were Iran to comply with all the clauses of the deal, it’ll have an on-ramp for nuclear development, and sunset measure Decrease after a decade.   Khamenei can always have one of the factions, such as the IRGC, torpedo the deal. 
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Mohsen Sazegara, Iranian journalist & prodemocracy political activist, in re: new, hitherto-unidentified nuclear site about eighty miles north of Teheran under a mountain  . . . Current generation does not like this regime. Money that could be released with diminution  of sanctions ($150 bil) – Iranian regime hands out staggering amounts to destabilize regions, from Hezbollah to Houthis to South America to Sudan.  Esp in Syria, and Hamas, in Iraq, to Taleban in Afghanistan,, and to support plainclothes thugs in Iran to ride herd n ht citizens. Also: huge amounts of corruption.  Meanwhile, the people are out of many basic necessities, including food and medicine.  Contradiction between and educated population and a Medieval regime. Democratic movement of Iran does exist and is growing.  A single-party strongman Maoist regime in Beijing still exists 25 years since Tien An Men.  A difference between China d Islam is that this Iranian regime is incapable of reforming itself  the moment t hey start to change, it'll be lie the Soviet Union. Balance is shaky right now,.  Ethnic and religious minorities: Kurds, Azeris, Baluchis, Turkman, others.   Ten mil Sunnis, Bahai, Christian, Jewish. The young generation believes in nine of them.  Any agreement between Iran and the West is meaningless.
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Tzvi Kahn, senior policy analyst, Foreign Policy Initiative; in re:  Iran negotiations in Vienna.  "The difficult issues delaying the negotiations are to do with lifting sanctions based on the arms embargo." US has conceded so much that even at the last minute Iran will go for more. Russian go along, as does China, in order to resume business with Iran; will gladly make concessions. Obama Adm will because it wants a deal a lot more than Iran does.  . . . We need to demand any time/anywhere inspections, and all the concomitant requirements. Tens of billions of dollars, ballistic missiles.  Any number of models would be superior to what the US is doing, as [Kerry] is making achieving some sort of deal much more important than the actual substance of t he agreement.
Hour Three
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Yoram Hazony, Israeli philosopher & political theorist;  Herzl Institute president; in re:  Druze – an Abrahamic religion born of Jethro. Three large Druze communities: 20K in Israel (who serve in the Israeli army) near Golan; 40K in Lebanon near Golan; then, 50 mi away, 700K.  As the Syrian state ravels, 20K Druze in the north were forcibly converted to Islam by al Qaeda. Imminent forced conversion or massacres of Druze.   Autonomous region possible?  Everybody is very quietly speaking of this. Along the border of Jordan and Israel in the 1920, the "Druze Mountain State."  Dream of autonomy is still very much alive.  Druze massacre in a northern Syrian village a few weeks ago; bombardments in the south; they feel the nose tightening around their necks..  "We're not Yazidis" – we will not become refugees, will stand ground even if it means fighting to the last man.  Comparable to Kurdish situation: it took many decades for the West to see benefits and we’re still not giving Kurds heavy weapons.  Druze ask for weapons, and air cover to bomb the artillery.   In constant telephone contact with their relatives across the border. Are justifiably panicked. Israeli Druze have served with distinction in the IDF; some become generals at the top level: "We’ve defended the Jewish state; now we want the Jewish state to defend us." Israel literally owes Druze many lives.  We owe the – and strategically, what are Israel's or Jordan's alternatives on the border?  Druze, or Salafists.  Be smarter to arm the Druze and set them up in an autonomous region, "The mortar of the Middle East."
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re:  . . . Egyptian Bedu; Hamas rebldg tunnels between Egypt and Gaza – go beyond the 3.5-mi border that Egypt has created.  New Tunnels are much deeper. Border closures; effort to shut the tunnels.  Hamas makes common cause with ISIS, which gets weapons from Sudan.  Lots of rocket propellant entering Gaza from ISIS.  Al Buraq Plaza: on the Temple Mount where according to Qur'an Mohammed will rise to Heaven on his white horse, al Buraq. UNESCO in Bonn has just adopted a resolution that ignores entirely all Jewish and Christian history, incl Jerusalem, ignores entirely the Western Wall.
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 3, Block C:  Anna Nemtsova, Daily Beast, in re: How Kim Kardashian Liberated Armenia
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 3, Block D:   Michael Ledeen, FDD, in re:   The no-deal deal.
Hour Four
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: An Empire on the Edge: How Britain Came to Fight America, by Nick Bunker Part III of III (segment 1 of 4)
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: An Empire on the Edge: How Britain Came to Fight America, by Nick Bunker Part III of III (segment 2 of 4)
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: An Empire on the Edge: How Britain Came to Fight America, by Nick Bunker Part III of III (segment 3 of 4)
Thursday  9 July 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: An Empire on the Edge: How Britain Came to Fight America, by Nick Bunker Part III of III (segment 4 of 4)
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