Thursday 7 April 2016
Photo, left: Microfinance Rwanda Women Entrepreneurs: Rahabu Mukampenda, a retailer in Burembo, Rwanda. Five years ago, she couldn’t get credit; today, she provides it. It's all due to a few simple skills she learned at a Village Savings and Loans Group. Photo credit: Georgina Goodwin, Hand in Hand International www.hihinternational.org
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Bill Whalen. Hoover, in re: Mr Trump had a bad few days and has cancelled appointments and hotel blocks of hotel rooms. Kasich: strategy is to go to the convention, get through the first ballot, then emerge as the winner on the second or fifth ballot. “I’m the only candidate who can convincingly win against Mrs Clinton.” AP snapshot of 1,000 people polled: Trump has 69% unfavorable. Mrs Clinton has 55% unfavorable. FOF = forty [unfavorable] often fatal.
A woman from Michigan and Arkansas and Washington represents New York; a Jewish Brooklynite no longer Jewish now from Vermont; Ted Cruz who goe s nowhere near New York’s Puerto Ricans; Mr Trump, a blue-collar fellow in decidedly white-collar neighborhoods.
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Bill Whalen. Hoover, in re: Mrs Clinton took a New York subway to day – took her five swipes to get the card accepted (maybe “she’s so polarizing she’s demagnetizing”). Bernie Sanders said he knows how to take the subway: put the token in. Egad! . . . Barring an FBI-based indictment, she’ll get the nomination.
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Daniel Henninger, Wall Street Journal, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/panama-bernie-1459984539
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Paul Gregory, Hoover, in re: http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/04/05/putin-caught-in-huge-panama-papers-scandal/#1ceddb054eb2 ; http://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2016/04/05/barack-obama-extols-cubas-slave-labor-medical-care/2/#7ebcf0823ff3
Hour Two
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Ambassador Elin Suleymanov*, in re: Nagorno-Karabakh. A region in turmoil for at least a century – Versailles Treaty – but Armenia, a Christian state in the south Caucasus, next to another state, on the shores of the Caspian, ally of US and Israel, with lots of oil and gas. Nagorno-Karabakh is an autonomous subregion (declare by USSR) within Azerbaijan’s border. Nagorno (allied with Azeris) & Karabakh (allied with Armenians). No Karabakh forces anywhere. Ceasefire holds; was broken by the Russian side; Azeris repeatedly and unilaterally declared ceasefire and only recently got Armenian acquiescence. . . . Under Soviet decision established Autonomous Armenian District in 1921. In 1988, tried to join N-K to Armenia – declaration by Supreme Soviet of N-K belonging to Armenia. About 1 million refugees displaced; ethnic cleansing. The word “independence “ is misplaced: Two consecutive Armenian leaders are from this “independent” region. Armenia depends greatly in Russian Federation, incl economy (95% of energy sector belongs to Russians); even Turkey can lose form destabilization, and even Russia moved today to implement the ceasefire. Putin in Baku and Medvedev in Erevan?. . . Azerbaijan has grown substantially from the 1990s.
*In October 2011, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, appointed Elin Suleymanov as Azerbaijan’s Ambassador to the United States of America. Prior to that, for over five years, Mr. Suleymanov was the nation’s first Consul General to Los Angeles and the Western States leading the team.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan-idUSKCN0X40WF
http://www.wsj.com/articles/azerbaijan-armenia-cease-fire-over-nagorno-k... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18270325
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35970303
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35967606
Thuday 7 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Steve Cook*, in re: Turkey, Egypt, Syria. A rebel in Aleppo Province used a (US) Manppad to bring down a Sukhoi in Syria. Stinger may have come from Turkey but probably was signed-off on somehow by Washington. Coordination: Gulfies, Turkey and US. We’d like to think it was the Free Syrian Army, but . . . anyway, an escalation us afoot, The Russian withdrawal was mostly an eqpt change; and the ceasefire was in name only, Back to a dirty war. Russians and Turks have been looking for ways to put a finger in each other’s eyes; Turks are justifiably afraid of Russians. And a build-up of Russians in Armenia. Spillover. Erdogan’s heavy hand on PKK is related to Syria. Syrian Kurds [YPG in Rojava] are carving out an autonomous region along Turkey’s southern border and Erdogan sees no difference between YPG and PKK. Turks thought they could contain the problems following Turkish shootdown of a Russian plane in November. Hah. No one in DC will deferens Erdogan except the White House, Turks are isolated , wounded and worried. The Europeans cynically tried to pay off the Turks to keep refugees from pouring in to the EU. Of course, the people fleeing will find other avenues. Turkey: currency collapse, hotels for sale. AKP blames everyone else.
*Steven A. Cook is Eni Enrico Mattei senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He’s an expert on Arab and Turkish politics as well as U.S.-Middle East policy.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/28/how-happy-is-the-one-who-says-i-am-a-turk/
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/is-armenia-the-next-turkish-russian-flashpoint
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35967351
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35973860
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Ambassador Eugene-Richard Gasana*, in re: Twenty-second commemoration of the genocide against the Tutsis in Rwanda. It began on 7 April 1994 and continued into July. This year we fight against the ideology of genocide. Those who try to deny that it occurred: we must face them and fight the denial ideology. They say it was a war against ______, not a genocide, Anniversary of the 100-day massacre, left 100,000 people dead. Plane brought down. You don't plan a genocide in one night; the plane became a predicate for immediately beginning the genocide. Under the leadership of Pres Kagame, we’ve tried to consolidate a new social fabric as one nation. Easy to find differences, but our goal is to have a continuingly strong secular nation and a reunited one. Who denies the genocide, and gains how? There’s nothing as awful as a bad conscience, so those who implemented the genocide now deny it – try to say that there was a genocide against the Hutus as well as against the Tutsis. To educate the youth both in what occurred and how to prevent a future repetition? Identify the root causes, and to undermine the so-called differences between people; and to strengthen the meaning of “Rwandan.” We need a stable nation. / In Europe, 70 years later no one has recovered. Same in Rwanda? Yes, very. Those who refuse to name it for what it was – a genocide specifically against Tutsis - do not help healing.
*Rwanda's President Paul Kagame has appointed Ambassador Eugène-Richard Gasana as Rwanda’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Gasana has risen through the ranks in diplomatic circles having served as Chargé d’Affaires of the Embassy Rwanda in Bonn, Germany (1994 to 1995), and later (1996 and 1997) in the same position in Bern, Switzerland. He was later appointed Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the Federal Republic of Germany, with concurrent accreditation to Austria, Bulgaria, Russian Federation, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania. http://www.ibtimes.com/rwandan-genocide-anniversary-facts-about-mass-slaughter-between-hutus-tutsi-2349812
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Ilan Berman*, American Foreign Policy Council and National Review Online, in re: Iran and Syria. Iran’s access to the US financial system – a huge advantage and opens the doors for shenanigans; WH said we were all wrong. The rub is that even though Iran received $100 bil –plus of new revenue, the second part – lifting of grade restrictions – isn't as fast as Iran wants. Example: when Iran tries to conduct trade in different denominations - in U-turn transactions – may need to convert Iranian riyal even for a few seconds into US dollars. WH tries to [sneak around --ed.] Congress. This contradicts what Treasury Secy Lew promised Congress. WH “liberalization” of sanctions runs against at least the spirit of the JCPOA; trying to stay within the letter of JCPOA. Will set up an offshore clearing house [how about in Panama? – ed.] so technically they're not doing it in the US. . . . Btw, Hezbollah is bldg a base in Syria. Lebanese oppo forces, in Now Lebanon, there’s a reverse flow of Hezb leaving Syria, didn’t want to be left holding the bag when Russia announced withdrawal (well, sort of withdrawal). The shootdown of the Sukhoi-22 by a Stinger (from Turkey or Gulf) – Russians have been coy about this. Latakia and two other bases are still manned; Russia has merely reconfigured its troop deployments. Sale of advanced Sukhois to Iran – violation of Security Council resolution- but we’re seeing a string of Iranian violations. Matter of political will; WH has no urge to hold Iran’s feet to the fire.
*Ilan Berman is Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation, he has consulted for both the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense, and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/433574/iran-sanctions-relief-economic-concessions-united-states-market
http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/why-russia-claiming-victory-syria-15587
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/hezbollahs-shot-permanency-syria
http://www.wsj.com/articles/one-year-after-the-iran-nuclear-deal-1459721502
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35987667
Hour Three
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents; in re: ISIS – Mosul (that could take years . . . ); but now it's in South America: recruiting ops with South American nationals and tribes. Hezbollah took the lead in 2006, converted a Venezuelan tribe that tried to bomb the US embassy. ISIS with Mayas and Chiapas, Tainos, Guarani. Triple Frontier: Paraguay/Brazil/Argentina. Creating ISIS and Hezb affiliates in nine countries in the Caribbean and the Andes. Shia mosques all across South America. Thirty to forty thousand Iranians enlisting and recruiting, incl into Mexico. Tunnels under border.
Military base by Hezb, carved an area where they bld a base in Syria plus tunnels into Lebanon – Katyushas, mortars, all kinds of munitions. IRGC considers this an Iranian asset. North Korean engineers have been involved in some of the construction. ? Along Golan heights no more Syrian troops confronting Israeli troops; and none on the Syrian side of Mt Hermon. A small presence in Quneitra, but other not much visible along the border. Druse were under pressure by Iran; Israel warned that if Druse were threatened Israel would intervene. Four days ago, Abbas went on Israeli TV, said he was ready to met PM Netanayahu, who immediately replied: I’ve cleared my calendar for a week, come ay time Now the PA is setting preconditions: end all settlements, do this and that, before we’ll show up.
In The Guardian: Mossack Fonseca in fight over painting s stolen by Nazis. One of the firm’s founders said, “Are we supposed to sell bananas?” – a German national. Helped a New York art firm defend itself for its looted art in 1940s, art that head been stolen by Nazis from Jews.. David Cameron admits he benefitted from a Mossack Fonseca sale.
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Mark Galeotti*, Center for Global Affairs, NYU,; and Business Insider in re: Russia. Is this a US-led plot to destabilize Putin? Unhh – most Russians see that their leaders are corrupt; this is just added details to a familiar, broad picture. Russian role in Nagorno-Karabakh? They benefitted from this semifrozen conflict as it gives them regional leverage. Russia is happy to have areas of dispute, but prefers no actual fighting, so it damps down armed conflicts. Putin in Baku and Medvedev in Erevan? . . . Russian mission creep in Syria; drawdown to let Russia provide only ground troops; Syrians not good, so using mercenaries – whose deaths need not be reported in Russian press. . . . Kremlin paranoid; will have one more police-security crew: moved out of interior ministry and into a new agency wholly under he Kremlin’s control.
*Mark Galeotti is academic chair of the Center for Global Affairs at NYU school of Professional Studies and is a specialist in transnational organized crime, security affairs, and modern Russia. His principal focus is the development of organized crime and its impact on national and international security. Galeotti has worked as a researcher in the British Houses of Parliament and in the City of London. In addition, he has taught at Rutgers University in Newark and at Keele University in the United Kingdom. Galeotti served as an advisor to the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office and has worked with a wide range of commercial, law enforcement, and government agencies from the U.S. Department of State to Interpol.
http://www.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-has-just-created-a-personal-army-2016-4
http://warontherocks.com/2016/04/moscows-mercenaries-in-syria/
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/after-the-pullout-putins-military-options-in-syria
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/us-block-russian-arms-iran/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/vladimir-putins-next-european-front-1459965435
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950118000216
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Hotel Mars, episode n. David Livingston, The Space Show, in re: Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The collision provided new information about Jupiter and highlighted its role . . . an aphelion just inside Jupiter's orbit, and a perihelion interior to the asteroid belt. Discovery - Jupiter-orbiting comet - Predictions for the collision - Impacts / 2009 Jupiter impact event - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The 2009 Jupiter impact event, occasionally referred to as the Wesley impact, was ... Assuming it was an inactive comet (or asteroid) about 1 km in diameter, this ...
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Peter Berkowitz, Hoover Institution, in re: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/24/israels_sorrow_of_the_left.html
Hour Four
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re: Instead, it will be his misunderstanding of Badger State conservatives' deep relationship with their elected officials, one that does not take well to outsiders trying to divide them from the people they worked so hard to put and keep in office. / Trump ran into a buzz saw in Wisconsin last week when he . .. (1 of 2)
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Dr Lara M Brown, George Washington University, and Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (2 of 2)
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Space Launch System (SLS delays); Ariane Space legal tangles. Sea Launch legal tangles. (1 of 2)
Thursday 7 April 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Space Launch System (SLS delays); Ariane Space legal tangles. Sea Launch legal tangles. (2 of 2)
.. .. ..