Thursday 4 February 2016
Photo, left: Sunset over Seabrook Beach, Seabrook, New Hampshire
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re: The Night Donald Trump Became a Loser http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/the-night-donald-trump-became-a-loser#.dpD5lqPjv
Marcomentum. Turns out that voters care not only about immigration. . . . Not only about tactics; it's about ideas. Conservative ideas work. We've had a great liberal experiment for eight years – massive misallocation of capital, food stamps, welfare , malfunctioning administrations, rise of a caliphate and China on the march, Voters know that something’s off. “Reformicon,” Heaven help us. . . . Make the tax code as transparent as possible. . . . Does Rubio really have a spine? And strong on foreign policy? He backs away; he’s 44 years old, there are concerns about him. In Speaking with Doug Schoen: Are supporters fo the three governors going to drift to Rubio before or after next week’s vote? And Gov Bush: if he does poorly in NH, he won’t leave till after SC. Christie and Kasich are do or die in NH. NH isn't really Rubio’s crowd; he’ll do better to move south . .
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re: Bernie Sanders come of as genuine because he is — take over the healthcare system, punish banks, etc. Mrs Clinton ins in a pinch: surrounded by very disturbing scandals, and she ahs to differentiate herself from Bernie but attach herself to the president, to the progressive Id. Monica Crowley calls the charming Mr Sanders “Lenin from Brooklyn” — his ideology is a bit antiquated. . . . Shoddy economic education in colleges, which simply don't teach economics. Note that socialism is often portrayed as a cuddly old man. Michael Bloomberg: polls in the high 20s, esp in urban centers, appeals to Dems more than GOP.
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Captain Jerry Hendrix, CNAS, and Gordon Chang, Forbes and Daily Beast; in re: the confusion between "freedom of navigation" and "innocent passage" in the US govt statement of Jan 30; and the SecDef uses both: http://news.usni.org/2016/01/30/u-s-destroyer-challenges-more-chinese-south-china-sea-claims-in-new-freedom-of-navigation-operation
The issue here is that the natural land feature is claimed by three different nations, each of which demands advance notification, which the US does not accept. US travelled here under innocent passage. Vietnam has China up before The Hague about this larger matter and the US is careful not to get commingled in that. Even though innocent passage is in the UN Law of the Sea [UNCLOS, of which China is a signator and the US is not], China refuses to acknowledge innocent passage. US has sent Arleigh Burke-class missile launching destroyers; this is the equivalent of having a battleship show up in the pond behind your home. Had we moved the forward gun or turned on the Aegis or launched even one helo, it’d be a different thing, I think China is worried about losing face: looks as though the US will continue to return.
The following is the complete Jan. 30 statement on USS Curtis Wilbur’s [named after the 43d US Secretary of the Navy; under Pres. Calvin Coolidge] freedom of navigation mission past Triton Island from the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
I can confirm the Department of Defense conducted a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea on Jan 30 (Jan 29 EST), specifically in the vicinity of Triton Island in the Paracel Islands, to challenge excessive maritime claims of parties that claim the Paracel Islands.
This operation challenged attempts by the three claimants, China, Taiwan and Vietnam, to restrict navigation rights and freedoms around the features they claim by policies that require prior permission or notification of transit within territorial seas. The excessive claims regarding Triton Island are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention.
During the operation, the USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54) transited in innocent passage within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island.
This operation was about challenging excessive maritime claims that restrict the rights and freedoms of the United States and other, not about territorial claims to land features. The United States takes no position on competing sovereignty claims between the parties to naturally-formed land features in the South China Sea. The United State does take a strong position on protecting the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea and airspace guaranteed to all countries, and that all maritime claims must comply with international law.
No claimants were notified prior to the transit, which is consistent with our normal process and international law.
This operation demonstrates, as President Obama and Secretary Carter have stated, the United States will fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows. That is true in the South China Sea, as in other places around the globe.
Since 1979, the U.S. Freedom of Navigation program has demonstrated non-acquiescence to excessive maritime claims by coastal states all around the world. The program includes both consultations and representation by U.S. diplomats and operational activities by U.S. military forces.
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PLA Navy is alarmed at the US Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Curtis Wilbur’s having circled Triton Island, in the Paracels, three times at its leisure. US was exercising it clear legal right to freedom of navigation. Laying claim to the island: PRC, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Hanoi is a lot more concerned about Beijing’s moves than about the US exercising freedom of navigation. US cares about who makes excessive claims on the waters and skies in that region. The Paracels are within 200 mi of Vietnam, allowing Hanoi to drill for oil there. . . . What’ll happen? If the ship is being seen as backed up by the whole US Navy, China will not much press forward [we win]. Gunboat diplomacy. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-southchinasea-china-idUSKCN0V8093
The US carefully sailed the USS Curtis Wilbur under innocent passage rules, not freedom of navigation. “Innocent passage” can occur when a vessel performs no military operation, e.g., move guns, or launch or land a helo. Instead, the ship just sailed. One reason the US is concerned to maintain the legal definitions and distinction is that at present there’s an important case before the Court in The Hague that's of consequence to the Department of Justice and the White House, and all are eager not to muddy the waters, so to speak.
Innocent passage is a concept in law of the sea which allows for a vessel to pass through the territorial waters of another state subject to certain restrictions. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea defines innocent passage as:
Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law.
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Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Patrick Tucker, Defense One, and Captain Jerry Hendrix, CNAS, in re: the future of the carrier fleet, and the effectiveness of the air wings. We want a measure of where the F-35 is right now, with the bigs and the discoveries; how soon for the fleet and how effective for the fleet going forward? “The F-35 was supposed to wow aviation spectators and weapons buyers at air shows in the UK two years ago, but an engine fire grounded the program. Now two years later, the F-35 is slated to attempt another inaugural showing in the UK this summer.” http://www.politico.com/agenda/story/2016/02/stop-the-navy-aircraft-carr... — need to avoid having any heat signature in the belly of the plane. Four or five years before integration F-35Cs in an air wing; paired with F-18 E & F; around 44 planes in strike attack, with Hawkeyes. Expect range of 550 nautical miles, well short of the intended 650? The DoD is not transparent about the F-35, yes? Well – if you write about it and criticize it, a wide body of people will call you to give you confusing information that dcoesn;t represent the entire picture.
Hour Two
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Dr. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations; in re: Iran, cybersecurity, Russia, Syria. We’re now post-implementation day of the Iran deal. Iran is buying Russian aircraft and are shopping for new weapons systems with its new $100 billion. American countries will be limited in the short run; subsidiaries will have more elbow room. . . . Biggest danger is that Iran will comply, which will facilitate its pursuing an imperial foreign policy. It was a narrow deal that said Iran will have to accept certain temporary sealants on its nuclear dvpt; didn’t deal with anything else. Syrian civil war: Diplomacy rarely does well when divorced from deeds on the ground. Talking was a hail Mary.
Iran as a “guided democracy” — reformers won't do well at all. . . . If you add the $100 bil plus another $30 bil a year ($1 mil/day from oil) plus investment: Iran may be able to have its cake and eat it – both strengthened defense and a modest improvement in standard of living. Iranians are more obsessed with the Saudis. . . . need to prevent Iran’s neighbors from dvpg their own nukes – Turkey, UAE, others. Nightmare.
· https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-claims-100-billion-now-freed-in-major-step-as-sanctions-roll-back/2016/02/01/edfc23ca-c8e5-11e5-a7b2-5a2f824b02c9_story.html
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-struggling-to-finalize-new-oil-contracts-1454331285
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-to-buy-up-to-40-atr-turboprop-planes-1454330448
· http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Iran/Report-Palestinian-Authority-arrests-5-pro-Iran-operatives-in-West-Bank-443709
· http://www.thearabweekly.com/?id=3573
· http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/02/opinions/iran-american-dance-miller/index.html
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: A cell from a West Bank town known for provocations and violence. A group of young men attacked at Damascus Gate; but not teenagers. Organized: three people w explosive, pipe bombs, gun, knives; one young woman saw something was wrong; she paid with her life but prevented a massive attack. Cell funded how? A 19-year-old border policewoman was killed and another female officer critically wounded in an attack Wednesday at Damascus Gate by three Arab terrorists wielding machine guns, pipe bombs and knives. All three assailants were shot dead at the scene. Their explosives did not detonate and were later neutralized by a police bomb disposal team. The commander of the Border Police team that killed two of the attackers said that he saw two of the terrorists shortly after 2 p.m. sitting on a bench wearing jackets,
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Anna Borshchevskaya, Washington Institute, & European Fdn for Democracy; in re: Russia in Syria; Russia and Iran. North Caucasus persons - 7,000 in weeks – have joined ISIS. ISIS has carried out effective propaganda to recruit people who’ve long felt disenfranchised by the Russian govt. Also, good propaganda. Motivation of Russians’s bombing in Syria is to get rid of them? -- more likely just have North Caucasus Russian govt reps drive them out, give them passports to go to Turkey t hen Syria. Moscow is the largest Moslem city in Europe. Putin needs to be worried, but this pays into his anti-Western narrative: it's the US who invented ISIS, which now is targeting us Russians. Break-off of Syrian peace talks: “I won’t talk for talking’s sake.” Russia like to pay lip service to intl cooperation; Brit Foreign Secy remarks that they talk to no useful end while bombing. By this, Russia is strengthening ISIS. What's Putin selling whit with now? “Holy sites” – Christian. Russians hold that anyone in Syria who opposes Assad is a terrorist. Russian media call NATO a threat, but . . . Turkey: continued hostilities with Turkey; Turkish journos will have to go through a visa process to enter Russia. Oil prices are very low; what's the public mood? Conflicting reports: one on inflation being low (positive news); but Russian economy is still in a recession.
· http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-islamic-state-comes-to-russia
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-germany-hit-syrian-government-for-talks-suspension-1454595134
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Turkey will lose 4.5 million Russian tourists this year; vast numbers of hotels now for sale. Germans were the second-biggest; they're going to Greece. Tourism is 11% of Turkish GDP; heading down. Hezbollah has been funded by Iran - but makes vast amounts in narcoterrorism globally. Cocaine from South America to Europe, he money goes to weapons. Last week, seven countries joined in simultaneous raids. A bunch of Iranians were caught. The Tunnels that smuggle weapons, drugs, currency, booze, into Gaza, also are aimed to scare residents of Israel next to the Gaza border. US govt will invest $120 mil in tech to perceive tunnels; Israel will pay the other half. A complicated system, but excellent, US will use this ti uncover tunnels under the US-Mexico border. Hamas tale is tied onto Snowden: Iran not providing Hamas money since 2009 – leaked by Hamas to get money from the Gulfies (except Qatar). Egypt has been destroying a lot of tunnels from Gaza into Egypt. Ban Ki-moon has issued absurd statements: “The occupation is the cause of all the acts of violence,” ignoring PA incitement that’s oceanic. The war in Yemen: nontransparent reporting; Saudis suffering (345 civilians killed; 40K projectiles fired into Yemen, and hundreds of missiles in the last few days).
Hour Three
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Daniel Henninger, WSJ, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-economy-trumps-everything-1454542846?tesla=y
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Josh Rogin, , in re: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/fbi-colin-powell-email-probe-218748#ixzz3zERbc5GO
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Joshua Green, B Bloomberg Politics, in re: http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/01/19/will-iowa-and-thwart-clinton/uuSeu6MlJ6ok9NwqhgG64N/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter HILLARY'S STALLED CAMPAIGN IS IN BETTER SHAPE THAN IT LOOKS Even if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire
HILLARY CLINTON may not think much of Donald Trump, but she’s fortunate to have him running for president. If not for Trump’s steady hold on the media’s attention, the story of this presidential primary season would be an unpleasantly familiar one for Clinton: Once considered the inevitable Democratic nominee — as she also was in 2008 — her big leads in Iowa and New Hampshire have evaporated or disappeared altogether. It now appears possible that Clinton could end up losing both states to Bernie Sanders. Her sharp attacks on the Vermont senator’s gun control votes and health care plan during Sunday night’s Democratic debate in Iowa were a sign that she has belatedly awakened to this scenario.
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Jesse Drucker, Bloomberg View, in re: After years of lambasting other countries for helping rich Americans hide their money offshore, the U.S. is emerging as a leading tax and secrecy haven for rich foreigners. By resisting new global disclosure standards, the U.S. is creating a hot new market, becoming the go-to place to stash foreign wealth. Everyone from London lawyers to Swiss trust companies is getting in on the act, helping the world’s rich move accounts from places like the Bahamas and the British Virgin Islands to Nevada, Wyoming, and South Dakota. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-27/the-world-s-favorite-new-tax-haven-is-the-united-states
Hour Four
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Tyler Rogoway, FoxtrotAlpha, in re;
Turkey Claims Yet Another Russian Jet Invaded Its Airspace Russia has deployed a number of Su-35 fighter jets to the Hemeimeem air base in Syria, according to a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, AP reported Feb. 1. The spokesman did not specify how many of the fighter planes had been deployed, but local media have put the number at four. As Russia has become more invested militarily in Syria, it has deployed more advanced aircraft, improved air bases, and bolstered its air defense capabilities. ; Russian Soldiers Go Native for Arctic Ops Using Reindeer and Dogsleds . Drones: Intelligence Agencies Said to Have Hacked These Israeli Drone Feeds ; Why Iran's Drone Flight over An American Supercarrier Isn't a Huge Deal ; Eagles Are Being Trained to Catch Drones in the Netherlands.
F-35: That Mysterious Sonic Boom Was from a U.S. Navy F-35C out of Maryland (Updated) ; F-35 Will Attempt Another UK Air Show Debut as Concerns over Software Delays Loom (1 of 2)
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Tyler Rogoway, FoxtrotAlpha (2 of 2)
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black; in re: Hubble. Space capsule. Comet. (2 of 2)
Thursday 4 February 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black; in re: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black; in re: Hubble. Space capsule. Comet. (2 of 2)
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