The John Batchelor Show

Thursday 3 November 2016

Air Date: 
November 03, 2016

Photo, left: 
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Mona Charen, NRO, in re:  Churchill said WWII was the most avoidable war in history; one side’s goals were clear, and the other (Allies) ignored the obvious, and dithered, and wasted millions of lives.  The parallel here:   the GOP was in an excellent position, the Democratic president was fairly unpopular, and the GOP was gaining after 2008 – got 1,000 local and legislative seats, 2/3 of the governorships; all they needed to do was nominate someone broadly acceptable, would gave won in a rout against the damaged Mrs Clinton. Instead, the GOP chose to nominate  [a deeply difficult character].
See: NH, Missouri, which is very close, then the middle states  - PA, WI, MI, NC
“The Blue Wall” – 18 states voted Democratic every election from 1992, most of the northern Eastern Seaboard.  Getting wobbly this year.
As of last week, the House was going to be Democratic.   Them Comey spake. As of tonight, it's 70-30 GOP.  Senate: a very close contest; Toomy is behind McGinty, which is definitive: hard to hold the Senate if Toomey goes down.
It could be tha the Freedom Caucus will increase its influence: the fire-breathing Red Caucus, became proportionately larger in GOP, making Paul Ryan’s job even more difficult. Much depends on the presidential race,
If Trump loses by a lot, then much mumbling and reshuffling. If he loses by a little, the bitterness over those GOP members who didn’t endorse Trump.
Those who haven't endorsed Trump and those who maybe/sort of have: Kelly Ayotte, who’s now leading . . .   A bizarre year.
Black turnout for Mrs C has been weak—it’s a big part of the Obama coalition (93%), and a problem for her.
Part of the Republican party wants to come home (“not while the home is under enemy occupation”); Virginia is no longer a red state.
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Ed Hayes, criminal defense attorney par excellence, in re:  FBI is under fire; biggest issue is loss of confidence. If they lose the confidence of the public, that’ll be a huge problem in American law enforcement. If the 650,000 emails contain no damaging info, that's one thing; if bad info emerges, that’s another story—Comey will be in big trouble.
Why didn't Comey resign in July?
Mrs C has been given enormous privileges—aides’ given immunity in an odd way, devices not seized, testimony not recorded. Why did no one ask Huma about email?
Over half a million emails??
Reports of lots of argument between FBI and AG Lynch: the fact that Lynch and Bill Clinton met for 38 min on the plane is egregious; they did not spend all that time talking about the weather; all have huge financial stake in Mrs C becoming president.
Very rare for DoJ to tell FBI “don't do that” and then it does it.
There’ll be a lack of confidence in federal juries.  Also, the defense can now say, “Don't believe the prosecution; the FBI is political.”
The FBI is not for a political campaign season, it's for January, when we have a president. The whole thing reeks.
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Victor Davis Hanson, Hoover; in re: The Clintons as a crime family? A vast conversation among people who know they’ll get away with it?  Americans favor choosing virtue over vice.
Mrs Clinton was the first Secretary to have her own private server: people rent face time, spin off schemes, employ Clinton apparatchiks, etc. Bill Clinton’s speaking fees tripled after her appointment as Secretary of State: “You should invest in my future position as husband of a president.”  . . .  Existential question: why is it all about lucre?  When they're around superrich, they wonder, why does that person have more than I do?  Empowered by their ideology: I can make mistakes, and all the stuff, but it matters not because I’m progressive and egalitarian.
Is the damage to the system–DoJ, FBI, Congress, Senate—too deep to recover?
When you kook at the IRS, VA, FBI; picture emerges that the left is claiming, “We’re doing everything for your benefit and we’re all in this together.”  Redistribution [and the like].   Nobody had a cleaner life than Mitt Romney but he was excoriated.
Trump is a subjunctive [or future imperfect. –ed]; Hillary is an indicative.
Could an even farther-rightist populist emerge in 2020?  Yes!  If you borrow $20 trillion and cut it to half a trillion, that’s called a success.  I wish we had a better vehicle to express this angst; but all we have is Trump.  Think of some of the never-Trumpists: so self-righteous.
Worst-case scenario: is holding the House enough to rebuild the GOP? No.  Need Senate, House, and eventually the presidency, at least for four years. I don't see that in the [foreseeable] future.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441637/hillary-bill-clinton-greed-...
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 1, Block D:  Rick Outzen, publisher, Pensacola Independent Daily News; in re: Pensacola (the Emerald Coast) is solid Trump, but the Dems are running a good second, working hard to get the vote out.
Ivan, a fan of ours from Brazil, drives Uber; he turned around and said: “You're Mary Kissel!” And had programming recommendations: more about the New World and technology, and to project ahead. 
You’d think that Miami, Dade –Broward wd be strong for MRs C , but many heavy pockets fo r Obama look less secure now.
Jacksonville is big – strong African-Am community. Tampa is a battle ground (Dem mayor + a lot of military folk). SW: Naples, Ft Meyer, villages – all solid Trump. Narrowed down to one percentage point between them.
Palm Beach CO: Boca Raton s Dem, but the villages nearby are 95% GOP. Sarasota – south of Tampa, probably more Republican.
Odd: the Clintonistas and Trumpits of earlier this year haven't moved; where’d the tightening in the presidential race come from?
Mr Rubio:  VA Accountability Act, Zika virus funding, et al.
Will the Florida vote be fully counted next week?  Has Broward Co figured out how to count ballots yet?  . . .  I hope so.
 
Hour Two
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:   Ghaith Al-Omari, Washington Institute, in re: Palestinian Authority.  Mahmoud Abbas is senior, looking around for possible successors?   Nope; preventing the emergence of one.  Election at the end of the month for Fatah Party, on West Bank; shd show the next leader except significant players not allowed to participate. Looking for weak and liable candidates, none with a power base of any consequence; he’ll continue to be in power – according to his plans. However, Arab Quartet (UAE, Jordan. Saudis,   ) are concerned, looking or a more serious process.  Abbas went to Qatar to meet Maaschal:  to show some sort of unity to Palestinians; and for the Arab Quartet, trying to deflect criticism.
Does the PA measure Mrs Clinton and Mrs Trump? No. Overall sense the at whoever wins will side with Israel. Of course Clinton is known, whereas with Trump there’s a degree of uncertainty – they hear that he’ll have a hands-off Middle East policy, but they don't much know.
Abbas probably will try to introduce a UN res, but has to do it past Egypt, and wants to avoid a US rejection.
Opinion polls show that ISIS has low approval in the West Bank. Individual sympathizers, but not a real presence. Most Palestinians who've moved internationally to join ISIS are from Gaza. Who’ll replace Maaschal? Haniyah. . . .   
         https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/paralyzing-rivalry-1089
         http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4869423,00.html
 Ghaith al-Omari, a senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, is the former executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine. Previously, he served in various positions within the Palestinian Authority, including advisor to the negotiating team during the 1999-2001 permanent-status talks.
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  David Schenker, Washington Institute, in re:  Lebanon. Sykes Picot divvied up the Levant; saw Lebanon as a “Christian carve-out.”  Was under the boot of the Syrian regime for years.  Lebanon was without a president for two years; Parliament failed to elect anyone in 45 efforts.  Saad Hariri.  Aoun used to be the most anti-Syrian figure in Lebanon; returned in 2005, was opposed by all the pro-West coalitions, so formed an alliance with Hezbollah.
Problems: debt, pollution all kinds of huge problems.  Will Aoun deal with these?  He used to be very pro-West and even cooperated in needed matters with Israel. Saad was recently in good spirits; saw this as the best of a series of bad choices; wasn’t fond of Aoun, but had a choice between Aoun and a fellow who was raised in Assad’s home.   Recently, Saudis got fed up with Lebanon, for a year withdrew $4 billion in funding, watch the March 14 Coalition fray; then Samir Geagea [pron: zha-zha], who formed a pact with Aoun and his Patriotic Movement.
         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-new-president-for-lebanon1
         http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/lebanons-embattled-sunnis-need-support
         http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/01/lebanon-has-a-new-president-not-that-it-matters/
         http://jcpa.org/lebanon-general-michel-aoun-profile-preliminary-assessment/
         http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-presidency-iran-idUSKBN12V1SU?il=0
David Schenker is the Aufzien Fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute. Previously, he served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense as Levant country director, the Pentagon's top policy aide on the Arab countries of the Levant. In that capacity, he was responsible for advising the secretary and other senior Pentagon leadership on the military and political affairs of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. He was awarded the Office of the Secretary of Defense Medal for Exceptional Civilian Service in 2005.
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council; in re:  Russian flotilla sorties eastward into the Med toward Syria. The Adm Kuznetzov is rendezvousing with subs from Russia’s Black Sea fleet; an enormous grouping, largest since the Cold War. It's also excellent theater, since Russia’s economy is the size of Italy’s.   Anecdotes of Russian soldiers’s being buried in secret graves to avid letting Russian population know the extent of the damage n Ukraine and elsewhere; to avoid a diminution of Putin’s popularity. However, being Russian means that one is able and willing to suffer – shortages, privations, anything, so we needn’t live through another Great War and is the price of what we have to pay to become great again.
Reduction of foreign exchanges reserves at an alarming rate; Russian psyche has a propensity to thins, “We have to suffer for the Cause.” Russia pretends to be a giant, but it’s a giant with feet of clay.
Russia has been kicked out of the UN human rights council for the first time since 946. Related to closing Amnesty Intl in Russia, and other moves against human rights orgs, and independent pollsters. The public space  Russia is narrowing and Putin centralizes power ever further. It's rarely been as isolated as it is today; may become more ”brinksmanlike.”  Bldg permanent bases in Syria, and rail lines. . .   Volatile mix of strategic adventurism & _.  Russian TV routinely says things are alarming and confrontational. Esp along htr Polish border and the Baltic staes.  It's weaponized information more than actual fear. But: a longstanding sense of Siege in Moscow – expansion of NATO, US war on terror, and the like. However, the rising threat of thermonuclear war is being ginned up for public consumption: serious Kremlin officials now trying to dial this back.   . . .  In us, far too little careful thinking about Russia.  Also, the “FSB/GRU fingerprints” in the hack: built all around instilling doubt among Americans in the strength of American democracy.  That, unfortunately, has been an unqualified success.
         http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/11/02/russias-road-to-economic-ruin/#1bdac1085a30
         https://www.aei.org/publication/5-questions-every-presidential-candidate-answer-russia-edition/
         http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-insight-idUSKBN12Y0M6
         https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/amnesty-international-locked-out-of-moscow-office/2016/11/02/7f0359aa-a0fa-11e6-b74c-603fd6bbc17f_story.html
         http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-says-rebels-spoiling-planned-aleppo-fighting-pause-1478170896
Ilan Berman is Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC. An expert on regional security in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian Federation, he has consulted for both the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. Department of Defense, and provided assistance on foreign policy and national security issues to a range of governmental agencies and congressional offices. He has been called one of America's "leading experts on the on the Middle East and Iran" by CNN.
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Blaise Misztal, BPC, in re:  Turkey. Incirlik (NATO base, not allowed to be said to hold nukes; in fact, they've probably been moved out since the putsch).   When aircraft flew out of Incirlik during the putsch, Erdogan shut down electrical power for a week. And no only nonessential US personnel are left there. Not normal for relations with a NATO ally.  We need to look for alternatives starting now: safety in a pinch, and als0 gives us leverage over Erdogan. Example; if we move the NATO air base to Kurdish Iran, that’ll alarm him.
This week, delegation of Turkish businessmen in DC: secularist, hate Erdogan; yet, the trauma of the coup and terror of Gulen, now they make common cause with Erdogan. He’s sacked >100,00 people, and 40,000 arrests; fired 40% of the military officers, same numbers in police – state running on empty.  Everyone competent in the civil bureaucracy is fired.  Baghdadi said that ISIS went to Turkey.
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/merve-tahiroglu-erdogans-blitz-on-turkeys-republic-day/
         http://bipartisanpolicy.org/incirlik-alternative-airbase/
         https://www.aei.org/publication/could-turkey-in-iraq-kill-nato/
         https://www.aei.org/publication/erdogan-prepares-for-a-bloodbath/
         http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/state-dept.-official-admits-us-response-to-turkish-coup-was-lacking/article/2606290
Blaise Misztal is the director of BPC’s national security program. He previously served as the project’s associate director and senior policy analyst. At BPC, Misztal has researched a variety national security issues, including Iran and its nuclear program, Turkey, cybersecurity, stabilizing fragile states, and public diplomacy in the 21st century. Prior to joining BPC, Misztal spent a year as a Nuffield Fellow at Nuffield College, Oxford University. He was selected as a future leader by the Foreign Policy Initiative in 2010 and named as a national security Fellow by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in 2011.
 
Hour Three
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Congressman Eliott Engel (NY-16), in re: Running for e-election; district used to have some of Rockland Co, including some cows, but gerrymandering removed the cows; all else is the depth of New York City plus some Westchester.
We all in Congress need to reach across the aisles; and were not accomplishing needed work. I surely think the US has a critical role in the Middle East, esp in Syria: 500 people killed. Three-plus years ago, the Free Syrian Army came begging for help and we refused them!  Assad stays in power because Iran funds Hezbollah.
M working o legislation to penalizes anyone helping the Assad regime maintain control. The White House asked me to wait, but after the election we need to quit pretending there’ll be a ceasefire. Russia/Assad/Iran: a rogues’s team. We need to protect Syrian citizens. A photographer for the Assad regime showed Congress photos of stacks of bodies, people killed and burned, looked like a concentration camp. Horrifying.
The Iran Sanctions Act, Ed Royce (chair) and I (ranking member) working together; we have the most bipartisan committee in Congress. Need to keep the Act for eight or ten years.
Any kind of peace plan ‘twixt Palestinians and Israel must come from those two parties, not from the outside.
PM Netanyahu regularly offers to talk with no precondition; PA keeps refusing.  . .  . Iran still doing things with nukes and terrorism, still eligible to have sanctions placed on it.
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/john-hannah-no-time-to-lose-why-the-next-president-must-move-quickly-to-reassert-us-p/
         http://www.wsj.com/articles/obamas-israel-surprise-1477956091
         http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/may-clifford-d-kerry-hints-at-one-last-mideast-peace-push-before-obama-term-ends/
         http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2016/11/03/kerry-drums-up-business-for-iran-while-treasury-warns-against-it/
Congressman Engel is the Ranking Member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He also serves on the Energy and Commerce Committee including the Subcommittee on Health, and the Subcommittee on Energy and Power. He is the founder and Co-Chair of the House Oil and National Security Caucus, which is seeking clean, energy efficient alternatives to America's over-reliance on oil. He also sits on the Gun Violence Prevention Task Force, the Bipartisan Task Force for Combatting Anti-Semitism, the HIV/AIDS Caucus, the Long Island Sound Caucus, and the Animal Protection Caucus, among others.
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re:  Iran. Indiana Hoenlein.
Treasury Dept is unhappy with John Kerry. There treasury issued a sateen setting a high bar: We expect an enhanced level of due diligence [money laundering and more], then State said oh no, just normal.
Criticism of Kerry: interagency tensions between Treasury and State.  State suddenly flipped an agreed with Treasury (after oceans of criticism).  Thus European  banks are on notice. This week: blatant statements for IRGC commanders: We have trained ops  in Europe and the US at the direction of the Supreme leader; spending billions on US-made planes for our air force – and the funds evidently came from the $150 billion that Pres Obama sent to Iran.
Senior mil advisor to Supreme Leader announced: We’re bldg. a network in Syrai, Iraq, Lebanon, through out the Levant; probably in Gaza.
These blatant statements get almost no coverage. 
Reports of newly-discovered layers of destruction I ancient Jaffa (port city near Tel Aviv; “Yapu” in ancient Egyptian),a long-forgotten conflict between Ramses II and he Canaanites. The Pharaonic New Kingdom, 1460 BCE; the Canaanite revolt.  Found ceramics, kept digging, found another layer, incl a fortified gate--most massive gate ever found outside Egypt. Jaffa Cultural heritage project.  Bent arrowheads + two-meter-thick layer of debris.   Walls 6 meters wide; gate 50?? meters high. 
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Peter deMenocal, founding Director of Columbia University's Center for Climate & Life ‪@LamontEarth;  in re: Homo sapiens migration out of Africa during the last Ice Age ( 1 of 2)
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Peter deMenocal, founding Director of Columbia University's Center for Climate & Life ‪@LamontEarth;  in re: Homo sapiens migration out of Africa during the last Ice Age ( 1 of 2)
  
Hour Four
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com, & author, Russia in Space, The Past Explained, the Future Explored, in re: http://www.planetary.org/blogs/guest-blogs/2016/1103-an-international-outpost-near.html ;http://www.russianspaceweb.com/soyuz-ms-01.html#landing
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Anatoly Zak, RussianSpaceWeb.com, & author, Russia in Space, The Past Explained, the Future Explored  (2 of 2)
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com, in re: Spaceport China Long March 5 Liftoff.   The competition heats up: The first launch of China’s new big rocket, Long March 5, is now scheduled for Thursday morning at 10 universal time, 5:30 am Eastern.
The Long March 5 is comparable to the most powerful active rockets in the world such as the Delta-IV Heavy, Atlas V and Ariane 5, and will launch the technology experiment satellite Shijian-17 high into to geosynchronous. At more than 800 tonnes, 53 metres in height and with a 5 metre diameter core, the Long March 5 has been designed to launch the 20-tonne modules of China’s planned space station into low Earth orbit, starting with the core module in 2018.
http://gbtimes.com/china/long-march-5-being-fuelled-launch-1000-utc-thursday
With the first orbital flight taking place on June 2016, Wenchang Space Launch Centre is located in the northeast corner of the Hainan Island on the southern coast of China.
The new launch complex brings a more large versatility that isn’t provided by the other three launch sites. Wenchang provides an increase in performance for the launch vehicles gained from the Earth’s rotational speed because is closer to the Earth equator. This reduces the amount of propellants required for the satellite’s maneuver from the transit orbit to GEO.
The launch vehicle can fly from the launch site to the southeast direction into the South Pacific, avoiding the possibility of rocket debris falling into any populated area.
The center is equipped with two launch complexes. Launch Complex LC101 is used for the Long March-5 launch vehicle family while Launch Complex LC201 is used for the Long March-7 launch vehicle.
Both pads are similar and are equipped with a fixed umbilical tower, underground flame deflector trenches and ducts. Similarly to what happens at the other Chinese launch centers, the umbilical towers have swing arms to allow technicians to access and inspect the launch vehicle and payload.
The launch pads at the new launch complex use a sound suppression system, spraying large volumes of water at the launcher platform and into the flame deflector trenches below to dampen sound waves generated by the rocket engines.
The launch pads are served by two vehicle assembly and integration buildings. Launch Complex LC101 is served by Building 501 while Launch Complex LC201 is served by Building 502.
Each building is 99.4 meters tall permitting the assembly and testing of the launch vehicle in a full, vertical stacked position. This is a new approach to the launch vehicle preparation for flight, because at the other Chinese launch centers the launchers are stacked and tested for flight at the launch platforms.
After being stacked at the vehicle assembly and integration building at the top of a mobile launch platform, this is the rolled to the launch pad.
The journey takes several minutes to cover the 2,800 meters separating the vehicle assembly and integration buildings, and the launch pads. After arriving at the launch pads, the mobile structure is then placed above the flame trench and the necessary umbilical connections between the fixed structures and the mobile platform are established.  https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/11/china-long-march-5-maiden-launch/
Thursday  3 November 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:   Robert Zimmerman, BehindtheBlack.com (2 of 2)
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