Thursday 3 December 2015
Photo, left:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block A: Patrick Tucker , Defense One, in re: The notion of DoD snooping on citizens to prevent jihadists like the couple in San Berdoo, but the methods of radicalization are in fact deep: can reach to people, then stay in contact directly incl direct messaging on social media platforms. Very difficult for Pentagon or law enforcement to follow. There may be as many as 40,000 pro-ISIS accounts, bit as they reach out in person, shrouded in secrecy. Encryption: many officials said "We think this may get in our way in essential research in matters like this." Nobody's entirely sure. Apple, Google, et al., swiftly rolling out encryption products – inc for end-users in China, Brazil, Russia; yet . . . Bomb-sniffing; martyr vests; very new tech: terahertz-frequency scanning. Brand new: can actually see the signature of areas of concern on a person's body form as far away as a football field (100 meters?). Can scan a crowd one by one at 100 feet. Used in Afgh in 2012 – you see not a bomb but a negative space that takes the shape of something suspicious. Spectrogram can detect what kind of material someone's wearing – organic material or other; in a few years, will have specific capabilities. MK: The TSA can't detect anything. PT: We're moving inspection from the TSA chokepoint, but enroll a lot more in TSA Speedcheck. The more people sign up for Speedcheck, the better - but "Managed Inclusion" where the line is to long so they pull people out and put them in Speedcheck and so shoot self in foot. Undermine. This is truly the war come home. Both ISISI nd al Q are based on the notion of lone wolf – see a 2011 paper by Malloy, forensic psychologist at FBI: different aspects of a personality that predict lone-wolf violence. No means constantly to measure the eight different factors, but will be able to in a few years.
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block B: Edward W Hayes, Esq, criminal defense attorney, in re: Shelly Silver convicted on all counts: hard to overestimate the rot in Albany [state capital of New York]. Recall Tammany Hall – The 'Hall or the Wigwam – from the Roaring Twenties and Jimmy Walker (who wrote a song, "There's Music in the Rustle of Her Skirts") – what are DeBlasio and Cuomo dividing up? Wednesday dinner with Gov Cuomo at Chez Levaire, loup de mer; mais non, zut! - era a Casa Lever (Livy?) and eating bronzino? Come si dice "yuk"?
--They're probably trading, but since neither trusts the other it'll probably fall apart. The guv is likely more at risk: shutting down the Moreland Commission – created by Cuomo in 2013 to investigate political corruption, then he suddenly shut it down one Friday, Then the US Atty for NY Southern District Preet Bharara investigated Shelly Silver and got him thoroughly busted; forty years in jail at age 73. He could squeal on a huge pattern of corruption; might even give up the governor to save his skin.
Americans suddenly view with favor increased local police and federal surveillance, including Hizzoner DeBlasio of New York City, who now amends his statements and works to resuscitate an extremely successful NYPD program that he'd recently tried to gut. ; New York Post Editorial Writer Robert George on New York’s former State Assembly Speaker and other corrupt politicians. Cuomo blasts GOP for putting 'love of gun over love of country ... ; But Sharpton briefly veered off topic to ask Cuomo about the terrorist gun loophole. ... Tom King, president of the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association ... Charles Schumer, Mayor de Blasio and NYPD Commissioner Bill ...
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block C: Mona Charen, NRO, in re: a measure of the Climate Summit while Syria and Libya burn and New York huddles behind armed guards. Could Mrs C speak of Paris using direct words like jihadist and cutthroat and such? Might, but took another tack: "Terrorism has nothing to do with Isla."' True that most Muslims are peaceful but a significant minority are not – death, whippings, beheadings, gang rapes, burning the Jordanian pilot live in a metal cage. She does have a difficult relation to the truth. Eke the Party: Bernie Sanders said that climate change was responsible for he Paris terrorism; John Kerry said that he Charlie Hebdo murders were understandable. Truth problems characterize much of the Democratic Party. Narrative: Everything was fine till that awful G W Bush invaded Iraq; that's whey we have a sea of troubles; neglect 9/11, attacks on the US embassies in Africa ObL's declaration of war. They believe in this with the fervor of the Jesuits. My opinion is that there's no way out of the corner she's backed herself in to. I suspect it's a terrible blunder. Her only hope is that the GOP nominate Donald Trump. I think 25% are looking for an alpha-dog; Trump plays into their fears of ISIS, Russia, China. . . . When people are shooting at you, you need someone with a big gun. "The businessman form New York was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple." -- Harry Siegel, New York Daily News. Were Pres Obama to speak in Paris of anything but climate would be to acknowledge how much he's been wrong over the years. He speaks only of al Q, not of Islamic extremism, the mullahs in Iran (he facilitates them); by defining the threat down he thinks he can claim some sort of victory. Mrs Clinton can't speak English about threats: "Islam has nothing whatsoever to do with terrorism" said she. http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/427464/terrorists-climate-and-trump-mona-charen
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 1, Block D: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video; in re: two camps: Obama-isolationists, and Reaganites whi want to oblierate ISIS and al Qaeda; Chris Christie has experience as a governor; is a member of the former with Rubio. On the Hillary camp are Rob Paul and Ted Cru, who voted to handcuff our intell agencies, called Rubio a neo-con. Gov Kasich's problem isn't his policies, it's that he's a nag, not a leader. Trump appeals because he presents himself as a leader. JB: I want a GOP candidate who says in plain American: "This is what I'm going to do about Libya, Syria, US national security." MK: Christie, Fiorina, Rubio have been clear.
Hour Two
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block A: Ambassador Dennis Ross, in re: Syria, Middle East Relations. Multiple Western air forces on their way to bomb multiple groups, all in Syria, which happens to border Israel. Surrogate battlefoeld for some kind of world war? – Unhh, with that, hard to say "good evening," Subtext worries me: "Degrade and destroy ISIS" can be done only by Sunni Muslims. Meanwhile, we're bombing ISIIS, Russia is bombing non-ISIS
/anti-Assad forces. If you want the Sunnis to take out ISIS, can't succeed like this. Safe zone in sight? If you create one, reduces pressures on the Europeans (recall refugee flow), and promises to unify more effectively the Syrian oppo. Leverage on Putin. How to change his calculus: We say that if you don't enforce the ceasefire we'll create a safe haven. To change his behavior he has to feel some pressur on him, How about the Arab warming to Israel as the source of Stability? Carter in irony drove Sadat to Jerusalem. ; Three NATO members cooperating with Russia via deconflicting (fly right over the Black Sea fleet). The more Putin makes Syria a central player the better he can use this version of cooperation to [shoehorn] in Ukraine. An interesting historical parallel might be pre-WWI Balkans. Don't expect Erdogan to back down. Putting will use Europeans to pressure Turkey to apologize. Smarter to show Putin that the costs to him will increase http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/misreading-the-m... · http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/success-in-syria... ; http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/261886-very-very-poor-start-...
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block B: Mohammed S. Dajani-Daoudi is the inaugural Weston Fellow at The Washington Institute; in re: Mindset! The mindset of ISIS is: the ore chaos and fear the better, The payoff is fear – methodology of terror to instill fear in people so they won't resist. On the national level, so outsiders won't et involved. Instill fear in the heart of the people: you bomb us but we come to you one to one – this happened in Paris. Every time a country joins the effort, it bombs – civilians, not much ISIS. AS a result the civilians are the victims. Food fields, plantations, workplaces, homes, are being destroyed. At the same time, the West doesn't welcome the refugees, which feed ISIS so it can recruit and live on the fear and anger and pain. US strategy must be engagement, not just bombing. And the role of Muslims, of mainstream Islam? Note that extremist do not engage Islam as a religion; what's needed is not to attack Islam as a religion, as a faith, but to align normal people from the extremists. Empower moderates by ____________. Are there mainstream Muslim leaders who can do this? Yes, there shd be an Islamic army formed by Arab govts, rather than Christians. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-paris-response-answering-urgent-questions-in-the-anti-isis-fight
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block C: Olli Heinonen is a Senior Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; in re; ne Iran report. "Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2009." hah. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. IAEA inspectors are crippled, don't know what he PMD (past military dimensions) were? JCPOA and safeguarding agreement . . . Iran is not in compliance; will not be an easy ride. Pres Rafsanjani; some might be ready to tell a bit more; don't need to know every iota; . . . decision in December. Iran claims there was no diversion from its civilian to its military nuclear program. It's in the past had undeclared nuclear material. Vienna Accord: no need to be clear abt previous activities?? http://www.wsj.com/articles/iaea-finds-some-iranian-nuclear-weapons-acti... · https://www.commentarymagazine.com/foreign-policy/middle-east/iran/iaea-...
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 2, Block D: Boris Zilberman, defense & foreign affairs at FDD; in re: Verbal escalation between Putin and Erdogan, but probably not kinetic. Russian ships have passed through Bosphorus; that's a trump card that'd bring on a huge intl crisis so not too likely. Were that to occur it'd be a global crisis. . . . All the major AKP figures are vulnerable to pressure. Turkish foreign minister actually met with Lavrov. What's the domestic Turkish reaction to the charge that Erdogan is making pots of money from selling ISIS oil? Depends on which Turks. AKP circle the wagons; [others have known about this for over a year]. Turks & Russians have fought a lot of wars in history, but not post-WWII. JB: Don't close the Straits! http://www.businessinsider.com/erdogan-putin-syria-civil-war-2015-12
Hour Three
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents; in re: Nasrullah went to Baghdad: Hezbollah is suffering enormous losses, as has Iran. More than 20,000 ISIS fighters have been killed. Parties are assessing their positions. Russian announce a second air base in Shariat near Homs, which will also hold a squadron of Iranian fighters.
Sinai: tunnels were the attack modes for the 2014 wa , were defeated by IDF, but they're being reconstructed . Egyptians have now found a ne tunnel from Gaza into Egypt, Rafah area – reinforced with iron 40 cm thick – this is Brobdingnadgian, madly expensive; in a network of 17 tunnels! ISIS recruiting in the area. Yes, weapons shipments that Egypt has been trying to cut off – personnel weapons both in and out, ISIS fighters flowing into Libya, Sirte, from 200 now to 5,000 troops there. Generates oil revenues. Lots of ISIS visitors to Gaza to coordinate. EU trying to label products produced in West Bank in order to boycott. Hungary and Germany say they won't comply; now Greece also refuses. More likely to come – not implement with or without announcement. Review what Olli Heinonen has just said. Washington will remove sanctions from Iran irrespective of massive fraud and lethal lies.
Russia will use Su-24s freely (not expensive), and has brought in superior technology to Syria.
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block B: Yoram Schweitzer, head of the Program on Terrorism and Low Intensity Conflict at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS); in re: transnational attacks – in Sinai, in Paris, will this continue? Yes, ISIS has accumulated many foreign fighters, have qualified and indoctrinated them, so will use them. Is the West prepared for this? Need to analyze "prepared.' Yes, security svcs long ago knew they were facing a problems. Suicide bombers – martyr-bombers: not a new phenomenon, part of their legacy. Sacrifice for God as an effective tool. ISIS has a lot of qualified persons. . . Can we expect a pernmanent state of having heavily armed police and ,military in our cities and along thebyways? No, not al the time and not permanentlyh, Security personnel tiilll it [dies down]. Recall theylre not onhte winning side, I;m sure htat in Euriope the [civilized staes] can win.
http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/No.%20773%20-Yoram%20for...
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block C: Susan Berfield, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re: WalMart
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 3, Block D: Karen Weise, Bloomberg Businessweek, in re: Seattle CEO who said he'd raise all his employees' wages to $15 – turns out to be a total fraud.
Hour Four
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 4, Block A: Tyler Rogoway, Foxtrot Alpha, in re: UK Orders Attacks on Islamic State in Syria, Royal Air Force Airstrikes Imminent
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/rhetoric-heats-up-as-russian-s-400-missiles-arrive-in-s-1744914020 ; http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russian-su-34-fullbacks-fly-first-syria...
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 4, Block B: Tyler Rogoway, Foxtrot Alpha, in re:
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Hawaii’s Supreme Court kills TMT The coming dark age: As I expected the Hawaiian Supreme Court today ruled that the construction permit given to the builders of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) is invalid, putting all construction on Mauna Kea on hold indefinitely.
It is very clear that the very liberal government of Hawaii is on the side of the protesters and is doing what it can to stop construction. Will the builders of TMT recognize this and try to find a new site for the telescope, or will they continue the legal battle to build it in Hawaii? I think they stand no chance of winning in Hawaii, but they might not have any other choice.
I also ask: What about the decisions to decommission other telescopes to make room for TMT? Do those telescopes still get removed, even if TMT isn’t built?
All in all, this decision probably puts an end to new cutting-edge science in Hawaii. Like the Catholic Church’s attack on Galileo (which essentially killed the Renaissance in Italy), astronomers, and in fact all scientists, will likely go elsewhere now to find a friendly haven for the search for knowledge.
Thursday 3 December 2015 / Hour 4, Block D: Dan Henninger, WSJ editorial, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/america-at-obamas-end-1449100772?mod=trending_now_2