Thursday 28 July 2016
Photo, left:
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
Hour One
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Mary Kissel, in re: Democrats are having a terrific convention, pulled out all the big guns. Trying to sell a vision of hope while tacitly indicting the president for the predicament we're in. “America is in a moment of reckoning” – Obama has had eight years to improve the economy and make the world safer, and he’s failed. Last night the president gave an excellent speech –p but it sounded like a promise for he future; doesn't fit with the past. He was the first president to upbraid Supreme Court Justices while speaking in Congress; he constantly refers to class and economic and racial division; highly divisive. Mrs Clinton has a daunting task in her speech. Also, is she the stable candidate, heading for smooth running, as she says, or is she the agent of change of whom Bill Clinton passionately spoke last night?
The Optimistic Candidate / Politico: “It’s become a cliché to say that the more optimistic candidate usually wins presidential elections, but there isn’t much doubt which party stands for optimism these days. Trump has tried to make November a referendum on the state of the country, describing America as a disaster area that only he can clean up. Obama essentially said: Bring it on.” / The Chaos Candidate “The big story at the Democratic convention for most of Wednesday was not the Democrats — not Hillary Clinton, Tim Kaine or even President Obama, the evening’s star speaker. It was Donald Trump, whose loose and provocative talk about the Russians and Clinton’s emails seemed exponentially beyond even his standards for creating turmoil and controversy,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump thrives on chaos and above all else demands attention. When the spotlight falls elsewhere, such as on the Democrats this week in Philadelphia, he looks to shift it back in his direction. He is a candidate who uses disruption as a strategic force. Wednesday was a textbook example — whether for good or ill.”
Obama Hails Clinton as His Political Heir President Obama “delivered a stirring valedictory address at the Democratic convention Wednesday night, hailing Hillary Clinton as his rightful political heir and the party’s best hope to protect democracy from ‘homegrown demagogues’ like the Republican Donald Trump,” the New York Times reports.
“Taking the stage to rapturous roars of ‘We love you’ and ‘Yes we can,’ Mr. Obama acknowledged that Democrats were still divided after a bruising nomination fight and that Mrs. Clinton had made ‘mistakes.'”
“But he vouched passionately for Mrs. Clinton as a trusted and reliable ally not just for him but for all
Obama’s Age of Discord After Reagan, George H.W. Bush could cut defense spending and conduct a Cold War mopping up operation. After Mr. Obama, the next President will have to spend more on defense and rebuild U.S. credibility.
Mr. Obama won’t acknowledge it, but this is the reality that made it possible for Mr. Trump to give last week’s speech with its litany of U.S. decline. He couldn’t have done it if tens of millions of Americans didn’t believe it. Mr. Trump’s unique liabilities may still allow Hillary Clinton to win a third Obama term, but on all the evidence they won’t be happy about it.
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block B: Bruce Thornton, Hoover Defining Ideas; via Front Page Magazine Online, in re: Trump and NATO A sober look at "the alliance." Trump on Article V was all bluster. Germany is the richest country in Western Europe, and some of the others are doing quite well enough economically. He made an unusual point in his braggadocio: US disproportionately carries the cost of NATO, while Germany spends not the committed 2% on NATO but a bit over 1%.
We need to have a conversation saying You can't always rely on US for its satellites, Cruise missiles, intell, massive electronics, everything; you need to make your fair share of contribution.
With Putin occupying eastern Ukraine and Crimea; with Russian aircraft almost hitting US planes and buzzing ships, is the best time to speak on this? I think he cannot use an Executive Order to pull the US out of NATO> It's critical now as we face challenges to get more material support from our allies rather than let NATO operations be a camouflage for the Europeans. Recall the Balkans in the 1990s: France disparaging the US “hyperpower.” With the Balkans crisis France was left flatfooted; had to call in NATO to stop the ethnic cleansing, and concentration camps. The problem was that they were too cheap to spend enough to keep NATO afloat. Paltry contributions given their wealth.
Nonetheless, Trump spoke against facts. My thought for Plan B is for Europe to start spending enough to keep NATO alive. If Russia invaded Estonia, even if Article V were invoked, how sure are you that the K, France and Germany, would declare war as they're obliged to.
Recall High Noon, where only the marshal showed up.
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Noah Rothman, , in re: Trump asked Putin to use his security services —FSB? GRU?—to hack into the US to get Mrs Clinton’s missing emails. Was he joking? Also, does Trump have a history with Russia in some fashion? Nyet, no real working relationship, but not for lack of Trump’s trying. Trump’s words yesterday were bizarre. The London, Indian, Singaporean papers all headlined Trump’s weirdo words. No one could figure this out. What he’s saying about European security is dangerous
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Ann Marlowe, Hudson Institute, in re: Tribe, by Sebastian Junger; The Tablet.
Sebastian Junger defines “tribe” as an entity larger than one’s self for which one will fight. Trump sees the world as a yuge tribal fight. He writes of a Native American tribe in the 1800s; Junger goes too far to say military ways of living are a model for America: “Americans have never been so cohesive as they were after 9/11” He romanticizes tribe; which Trump also is feeding, PTSD is preying on hundreds of thousands of returned veterans. He sees it as a psychological illness related to re-entry; in fact, it also seems to relate to brain concussions, esp in multiple IED explosions. Traumatic brain injuries. Why is Junger compelled to explain us? A retreat from modernity and from the Founders’s vision. We were not supposed to be a garrison state with a standing army.
Hour Two
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: David Albright, pres, Inst for Science & Intl Security; past IAEA officialin re: North Korea and Iran. DNC is in its closing hours; Chelsea Clinton is speaking to present her mother, Mrs Clinton will speak of optimism; emphasize “we.” The candidate who uses “we” the most wins the election, according to Bloomberg. / We watch North Korea and its nuclear and missile & weapons program closely: DPRK is an aggressive regime, is a proliferator, is R&D for Iran, a key supplier to Iran of long-range missiles. DPRK says it's aiming missiles at the US. JCPOA’s first anniversary. North Korea has little interest in a deal with the US. Pres Obama said that violations would not be tolerated – which turns out to be inaccurate WH says now that it was a “nuclear deal” – which it is not; it's dvpg delivery systems at present. DPRK is miniaturizing warheads to put on its missiles. Ongoing missile cooperation between Iran and DPRK, incl how do you make re-entry vehicles? Urgent need for some transparency here. At Year 13, breakout time will be four months.
· http://news.trust.org/item/20160721210422-utwz3
· http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/North_Koreas_Pilot_Enrichment_Plant_21Jul2016_Final.pdf
· http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/the-iran-north-korea-connection/
David Albright, a physicist, is founder and president of the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C. He directs the project work of the Institute, heads its fundraising efforts, and chairs its board of directors. In addition, he regularly publishes and conducts scientific research. He has written numerous assessments on secret nuclear weapons programs throughout the world.
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North Korea’s Suspect, Former Small-Scale Enrichment Plant, by David Albright / July 21, 2016 Recent information suggests that an early centrifuge research and development (R&D) facility was located at the Panghyon Aircraft Plant, at or near the Panghyon Air Base, which is located about 45 kilometers west of the Yongbyon nuclear site. This is a preliminary site identification and requires additional confirmation.
Determining the exact location of sites associated with North Korea’s gas centrifuge enrichment program has been a persistent challenge over the years. However, geo-locating these sites is critical to any future nuclear agreements with North Korea. If negotiations resume and are successful, it will be critical to include all the major North Korean centrifuge plants in any plan for freezing, monitoring, and dismantling North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs.
After more than a decade of denying the existence of a gas centrifuge enrichment program, in November 2010 North Korea revealed the existence of a production-scale gas centrifuge plant at the Yongbyon site. However, at the time, it denied that there were other centrifuge plants, despite information to the contrary. It is widely assessed that North Korea’s Yongbyon centrifuge plant is part of a larger gas centrifuge complex and that other facilities are located elsewhere. However, the location and nature of other sites have so far remained publicly unknown.
Although unable to identify another production-scale centrifuge plant, the Institute may have identified the location of one of North Korea’s early small-scale centrifuge enrichment plants. This plant would have served as an important facility in the development of North Korea’s gas centrifuge program in the 1990s and early 2000s.
The early stages of a gas centrifuge program typically involve relatively small research and development facilities to test individual centrifuges and a limited number of centrifuges connected together by pipes into cascades. Information about such a plant in North Korea emerged publicly on June 9, 2000, when the Japanese newspaper Sankei Shimbun reported that Chinese sources had indicated there was an enrichment plant located inside a mountain, listed in the article as Mount Chonma.
For some time, the Institute was unable to confirm this information. However, it recently obtained additional information from knowledgeable government officials suggesting that this centrifuge development plant had existed and was associated with an underground aircraft spare parts manufacturing and assembly facility. We have learned from knowledgeable government officials, and found with the assistance of Joseph Bermudez of AllSource Analysis, that the most likely site of this facility is the Panghyon Aircraft Plant, near or part of North Korea’s Panghyon Air Base, which is located about 45 kilometers west of Yongbyon (see figure 1). The underground aircraft manufacturing plant was first developed in the 1960s to manufacture spare parts for Soviet-supplied MIG fighter jets, according to government experts.
Based on analyzing commercial satellite imagery, the most likely site of the aircraft manufacturing plant and thus the centrifuge R&D facility is the underground complex located southeast of the air strip (see figures 1 and 2). Adding to the credibility of this determination, this plant is inside the Changgun-dae Mountain, which is part of the larger Ch’onma-gun mountain range. As figure 2 shows, the mountain has at least two tunnel entrances, one of which is wide enough for military aircraft (parked outside in figure 3). There are also likely hidden entrances into the mountain.
There is another identifiable underground site adjacent to the airstrip. However, this one appears sized and oriented to store aircraft underground.
The suspect site could have held up to 200-300 centrifuges, according to a knowledgeable official. We have no information suggesting that this site continues to function as a centrifuge plant.
One government expert familiar with North Korea’s nuclear program concurred that this underground site is a credible suspect centrifuge site. We are seeking additional confirmation.
Early North Korean Centrifuge Efforts Centrifuge research and development activities in North Korea, and possibly at this site, would date back to the late 1990s and early 2000s after North Korea received centrifuge aid from Pakistan. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, North Korea secretly developed its gas centrifuge enrichment program in parallel to its plutonium production program then frozen under the 1994 US/North Korean Agreed Framework. To do so, North Korea received significant centrifuge assistance from centrifuge experts at Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan Research Laboratory, the headquarters of Pakistan’s secret weapon-grade uranium centrifuge program near Islamabad.
Under a joint military cooperation agreement, North Korean missile experts were training Pakistanis in the centrifuge workshops of the Khan Research Laboratory on how to build sensitive components of the Nodong ballistic missile. While working in these centrifuge workshops, the North Korean missile experts asked to learn about gas centrifuges. Pakistan subsequently agreed to transfer a significant amount of centrifuge assistance to North Korea, in essence providing the North Korean missile experts with a centrifuge starter kit.
Based on this information, it is realistic that North Korean missile experts were the ones first in control of the development of centrifuges in North Korea. They would have had the direct experience in Pakistan building and operating centrifuges. The North Korean missile group would have already mastered several technologies similar to those needed in a centrifuge program. Aerospace and centrifuge technologies often overlap. For example, the missile program would have expertise in high strength metals which are needed in gas centrifuges. Thus, locating a centrifuge research and development plant inside a fighter aircraft manufacturing facility would make sense or at least be plausible. Moreover, the facility would already house machines and employ experts that could be more easily transferred to centrifuge efforts than Yongbyon nuclear reactor or uranium conversion equipment and experts. In addition, military control of the centrifuge technology at an existing underground military site could also better hide the program by isolating it from known nuclear-related sites, which were being monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) under the Agreed Framework and subject to greater attention by foreign intelligence services.
Other Indicators of a Nuclear Site The identification of the air force manufacturing site as a potential past nuclear site is also consistent with information provided by a North Korean general who defected to China. In August 2001, a Shin-Dong-A article published the statements of General Chun Sun Lee who made claims about the location of a nuclear production site in North Korea. Although it is very difficult to corroborate most of the information provided by General Lee, it is significant that he stated that the location housed a facility dedicated to refining uranium. Although not a typical way to refer to a centrifuge research and development site, a non-expert may refer to such a site in this way. For example, when the Iranian opposition group first identified the secret nuclear Natanz site in Iran in August 2002, it identified it as related to processing uranium fuel. A few months later our Institute determined that it was indeed a gas centrifuge plant.4
The North Korean defector further claimed that the facility was not located in Kumchang-ri, a location that had attracted considerable attention in 1998 when some in US intelligence claimed this site to be the location of an underground nuclear reactor or reprocessing plant (claims that turned out to be false based on a 1999 visit by US officials). Instead, the North Korean defector claimed that the nuclear site was 25 to 30 kilometers away under Mt. Chun Ma, near the Pyungahnbuk province. In fact, the Panghyon air force base is 27 km south of Kumchang-ri and is located in the North Pyongan Province, also known as Phyŏnganbukto. Although the matches in names and nuclear technologies are not exact, they are close enough to be suggestive.
David Albright, Peddling Peril (New York: Free Press, 2010); and Taking Stock: North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Program, op. cit.
4David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, Iran Building Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities: International Transparency Needed, Institute for Science and International Security Report, December 12, 2002. http://isis-online.org/isis- reports/detail/iran-building-nuclear-fuel-cycle-facilities-international-transparency-need/8
Former staff member Serena Kelleher-Vergantini contributed importantly to this report.
2 David Albright and Paul Brannan, Taking Stock: North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Program, Institute for Science and International Security Report, October 8, 2010. http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis- reports/documents/ISIS_DPRK_UEP.pdf ; Albright, North Korean Plutonium and Weapon-Grade Uranium Inventories, ISIS Report, January 8, 2015 (revised October 7, 2015). http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis- reports/documents/North_Korean_Fissile_Material_Stocks_Jan_30_2015_revised_Oct_5_2015-Final.pdf
440 First Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC 20001 tel 202.547.3633 Twitter @TheGoodISIS email: isis@isis-online.org • www.isis-online.org
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Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Simon Henderson, Washington Institute, in re: Saudi Arabia. Israel-Saudi relations. Iran, energy. :Looks as though Saudis may be about to bld a huge hotel in Israel. The retired Saudi General Anwar Eshki has long contact with Israelis – esp Dore Gol; the two met in DC at he Council on Foreign Relations. Now Eshki turns up openly in Jerusalem. His camouflage here was formally that he was en route to Ramla to see the Palestinian Authority. He visited the King David Hotel, met Dore Gold and a senior Israeli general . If Saudis withdraw support from Hamas? Saudis have been distancing themselves, since Hamas was taking Saudis for granted and two-timing them with Iran. King Abdullah od Saudi Arabia did not appreciate that; Hamas’s support now is Qatar. We have reports that not only Saudis but also Egypt and Greece are coordinating in the Eastern Med. Most influential Saudi is the 30-yr-old son of King Salman. “Concern for Palestinians must not be confused with Saudi relations with Israel.” Since Washington is so sniffy to Cairo these days, Saudis are trying to lend a hand to the economic basket-case that’s Egypt.
Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf. A former journalist with Financial Times, Mr. Henderson has also worked as a consultant advising corporations and governments on the Persian Gulf. He became an associate of the Institute in 1999 and joined the staff in 2006. He started his career with the British Broadcasting Corporation before joining the Financial Times. His experience includes serving as a foreign correspondent in Pakistan in 1977-78, and reported from Iran during the 1979 Islamic revolution and seizure of the U.S. embassy.
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Dr. Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, FDD, in re: Terrorism in Europe. A attack in Europe every 84 hours. Lone-wolf terrorism is a myth: France and Germany always announce it was a fellow operating alone, then they always find out that there was a connection to a larger entity, often a state. For the last attacks, numerous commentators immediate say “lone wolf” and it keeps being proven wrong. This tends ot prevent investigators from raveling the information, such as finding key ISIS ops in Europe. More intell sharing? Not much – archaic structures, bureaucracies with conflicting jurisdictions can’t share among counties or even domestically. When something is lone wolf not network, it's harder to assign culpability to investigators’s carelessness. In t he US, the Whit House has repeatedly said that ISIS has collapsed, which of course is not true. Policy preferences. There’s no question that the “collapsed network” hypothesis has taken over a lot of the policy community. It takes 10 people to monitor each fellow being watched; in fact, for 24 hours it takes abut a dozen officers. One major source of attackers is foreign fighters; other is the migration wave: very clear that both ISIS and al Q have used this wave to plant ops in Europe. In the post-Snowden era, electronic surveillance is harder because terrorists know all about elint [electronic intelligence]. In the past, bomb-throwing occurred all the time (anarchists of XVIIIe and XIXe); these were aimed at officials, not the general populace. The current level of lethality never was experienced then, In the whole Twentieth Century, 30 attacks killed a hundred or more people; so far, this century has had over a hundred killing over a hundred. Effect on Euro politics? Merkel says she hasn’t changed her mind, but Europe is tacking to the right. The politicians have been utterly callous about citizens’s safety. Their first priority shd be protecting Euro citizens – and it obviously has not been. Letting in a million people is a short time was dangerous; expect more attacks. Europe supposedly is spending $200 bil PA on security. Result is only a worsening situation. Eventually there’ll be a massive snap-back.
· http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/gartenstein-ross-daveed-the-myth-of-lone-wolf-terrorism/
· http://www.wsj.com/articles/is-europe-helpless-1469488738
· https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8568/europe-islamist-terrorism-denial
· http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21702746-french-are-growing-impatient-lofty-calls-persevere-against-terror-loss-faith
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: al Nusrah. ISIS and al Nusrah nor longer pals. Khamenei’s ofc: the US was the source of the European attacks. Iranian election son. Hamas election: will participate in municipal elections on the West Bank. Hamas bldg. six miles of tunnels a month and are expanding mil capacity. This is war with Abbas, who’ll meet Kerry on Saturday. Netanyahu welcomed el Sisi’s peace efforts. Expect naught from the Kerry-Abbas visit. The Palestinian Authority is suing the Queen of England over the Balfour Declaration. League of Nations incorporated the Balfour Declaration into its official policy, which then became an intl obligation to give Jewish people a homeland. Growing concern over Syria and the Golan
Hour Three
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Secy Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech of the Democratic nomination for the 45th presidency.
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Secy Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech of the Democratic nomination for the 45th presidency.
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: John Fund, NRO, and Brett Arends, in re: Mrs Clinton’s just-finished speech accepting her nomination for the presidency.
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Bill Whalen, Hoover, and David Drucker, Washington Examiner, in re: Mrs Clinton’s speech.
Hour Four
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Louisa: The Extraordinary Life of Mrs. Adams by Louisa Thomas. Part II of II (segment 1 of 8)
“An intimate portrait of Louisa Catherine Adams, the wife of John Quincy Adams, who witnessed firsthand the greatest transformations of her time
“Born in London to an American father and a British mother on the eve of the Revolutionary War, Louisa Catherine Johnson was raised in circumstances very different from the New England upbringing of the future president John Quincy Adams, whose life had been dedicated to public service from the earliest age. And yet John Quincy fell in love with her, almost despite himself. Their often tempestuous but deeply close marriage lasted half a century.
“They lived in Prussia, Massachusetts, Washington, Russia, and England, at royal courts, on farms, in cities, and in the White House. Louisa saw more of Europe and America than nearly any other woman of her time. But wherever she lived, she was always pressing her nose against the glass, not quite sure whether she was looking in or out. The other members of the Adams family could take their identity for granted—they were Adamses; they were Americans—but she had to invent her own. The story of Louisa Catherine Adams is one of a woman who forged a sense of self. As the country her husband led found its place in the world, she found a voice. That voice resonates still.
“In this deeply felt biography, the talented journalist and historian Louisa Thomas finally gives Louisa Catherine Adams's full extraordinary life its due. An intimate portrait of a remarkable woman, a complicated marriage, and a pivotal historical moment, Louisa Thomas's biography is a masterful work from an elegant storyteller.”
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Louisa: The Extraordinary Life of Mrs. Adams by Louisa Thomas. Part II of II (segment 2 of 8)
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Louisa: The Extraordinary Life of Mrs. Adams by Louisa Thomas. Part II of II (segment 3 of 8)
Thursday 28 July 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Louisa: The Extraordinary Life of Mrs. Adams by Louisa Thomas. Part II of II (segment 4 of 8)