Thursday 24 May 2018
Today is Queen Victoria's birthday. Image: Portrait miniature of Hayter's 1838 state portrait of Queen Victoria. Part of the 'Bone Set of Enamels of the English Sovereigns and Queens from Edwd. III to Queen Victoria.'
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-host: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents
Hour One
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 1, Block A: Sebastian Gorka, Fox News strategic director, in re: North Korea
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 1, Block B: Sebastian Gorka, Fox News strategic director, in re: Russiagate
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 1, Block C: Bill Whalen, Hoover, in re: California politics; Pres Trump.
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 1, Block D: Gordon Chang, Daily Beast, in re:
What we heard from Pyongyang today was unusually conciliatory; overplayed heir hand and trying to get back to where they cd speak with Pres Trump. They need a lot form the US incl a counterweight to China. Went out of their way to speak w bellicosity for days; then they contradict themselves.
They said they destroyed their nuclear test site; we think they did detonated parts of it. At least two tunnels are still usable.
Hour Two
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 2, Block A: Anna Borshchevskaya, in re: Russia’s meetings in Syria and with Macron; in re: Macron in St Petersburg, gets kissed on both cheeks by Putin. Fraternity. Dostoevsky. It's not entirely surprising, but nt a good thing. A year ago Macron invited Putin to Versailles; Macron had strong words about Russian electoral practices (“valid criticism”). This time, much more productive and amiable. The state-funded RIA Novosty. There are reports that there are more Russian subs around the UK since any time since WWII.. Russia was about to sell the S300 to Syria; then Netanyahu visited Moscow and it seemed to be called off; now it maybe surfacing again. Putin in Sochi: “All foreign troops have to leave Syria” – this includes Iran and Hezbollah. Stefan Halper at Cambridge noodling around with Carter page – are the Russians laughing?
After Talks with Macron, Putin Warns of 'Lamentable Consequences' if Iran Nuclear Deal Collapses
https://www.rferl.org/a/macron-in-russia-for-talks-with-putin-on-syria-ukraine-iran/29246777.html
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2018/May-23/450582-assad-meets-russia-envoy-hails-partners-in-victories.ashx#.WwX5yGkmrpx.twitter
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/dutch-led-investigators-say-russian-military-missile-shot-down-flight-mh17-over-ukraine-in-2014/2018/05/24/1e2ff92e-5f3c-11e8-8c93-8cf33c21da8d_story.html?utm_term=.17d170f3552e
Anna Borshchevskaya is the Ira Weiner Fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on Russia's policy toward the Middle East. She is also a Ph.D. candidate at George Mason University. In addition, she is a Fellow at the European Foundation for Democracy. She was previously with the Atlantic Council and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. A former analyst for a U.S. military contractor in Afghanistan, she has also served as communications director at the American Islamic Congress.
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 2, Block B: Aykan Erdemir, in re: Turkish-Israeli relations.
http://www.inss.org.il/publication/old-new-dynamics-changed-turkey-israel-relations/?offset=0&posts=1062&type=399
http://www.israelhayom.com/2018/05/22/in-bid-to-buy-influence-turkey-hands-out-money-in-east-jerusalem/
https://www.jns.org/opinion/erdogans-turkey-a-caliphate-in-the-making/
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-supports-palestinian-bid-to-try-israel-at-international-court-cavusoglu-132221
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/alexandra-n-gutowski-jordan-poised-to-be-middle-east-partner-of-choice-but-must-improve-internal/
Dr. Aykan Erdemir is a former member of the Turkish Parliament (2011-2015) who served in the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, EU Harmonization Committee, a nd the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Committee on the IT Sector and the Internet. As an outspoken defender of pluralism, minority rights, and religious freedoms in the Middle East, Dr. Erdemir has been at the forefront of the struggle against religious persecution, hate crimes, and hate speech in Turkey. He is a founding member of the International Panel of Parliamentarians for Freedom of Religion or Belief, and a drafter of and signatory to the Oslo Charter for Freedom of Religion or Belief (2014) as well as a signatory legislator to the London Declaration on Combating Antisemitism. On April 27, 2016, Dr. Erdemir was awarded the Stefanus Prize for Religious Freedom in recognition of his advocacy for minority rights and religious freedoms.
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 2, Block C: Eli Lake, in re: Iran and North Korea. John Bolton’s moustache! Camera shot from the ceiling of the Oval Office as the president spoke of talks with North Korea. What's Iran learning from all this?
Teheran thinks Bolton fundamentally favors only regime change. Nervous for two reasons: US sees Kim as acting like a buffoon; also, A Q Khan, Pakistani, and coordination between DPRK and Iran. If the US-DPRK talks do go forward, Iran must be quite worried about Koreans’s spilling those beans. And Putin is chatting pleasantly with Israelis and Europeans.
Pompeo’s speech abt Iran’s economy being on life-support. Rouhani: We shd try to join the world economy vs Ahmadinejad: We’ll bld a resistance economy! If Iran’s economy is all oil and they can't sell that, then . . . Also, Supreme Leader is old and said not to be well. Eventually . . . And no one can predict the outcome of the post-Khamenei power fight.
Saudis already favoring a diplomatic and political economic war. Also, for the duration of US-Israeli mil relations, was mostly to restrain Israel; now, for the first time, it's to have Israelis perhaps undertake actions that suit US policy. A whole new ball game. . . . except for Federica Mogherini . . . she and John Kerry will always return Iranian call. I recommend the Model UN. Perhaps the JCPOA Club.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-24/north-korea-talks-trump-can-win-by-walking-away
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-21/pompeo-s-iran-speech-raises-price-to-rejoin-world-community
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/may-clifford-d-mike-pompeos-iran-speech-reveals-detailed-plan-that-will-require-resolve-to/
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dubowitz-mark-the-united-states-finally-has-an-aggressive-plan-to-defang-iran/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-get-ready-for-the-battle-rial-1526941983
Eli Lake is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering national security and foreign policy. He was the senior national security correspondent for the Daily Beast, and covered national security and intelligence for the Washington Times, the New York Sun and UPI.
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 2, Block D: Behnam Ben Taleblu, in re: Iran sees that Trump is serious about cultivating uncertainty, and he’s never afraid to get up and walk away from the table. Sanctions: the force multiplier is Euro and Asian ____. Complement that w hand-holding. We also have to manage our partners in Europe My concern is not the big multinationals, but abt the smaller & med-sized firms in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic. . . . Allegedly tomorrow there’ll be a mtg of a JCPOA sub-organization; to be the first without the US. My problem is political; when your allies doubt your secondary sanctions. John Bolton in the room with arms folded as Moon and Trump spoke to the media. http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/behnam-ben-taleblu-mike-pompeo-raises-the-bar-for-a-deal-with-iran/
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/schanzer-jonathan-mike-pompeo-just-gave-the-iran-speech-kerry-should-have-given/
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/romany-shaker-iranian-general-soleimani-in-iraq-as-post-election-government-formation-tal/
https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/24/asia/iran-china-germany-nuclear-intl/index.html
Behnam Ben Taleblu is a Research Fellow at FDD, where he focusses on Iranian security and political issues. Mr. Taleblu previously served there as a Senior Iran Analyst. Prior to FDD, Mr. Taleblu worked on nonproliferation issues at an arms control think-tank in Washington. Leveraging his subject-matter expertise and native Farsi skills, Mr. Taleblu has closely tracked a wide range of Iran-related topics including: nuclear nonproliferation, ballistic missiles, sanctions, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the foreign and security policy of the Islamic Republic, and internal Iranian politics. Frequently called upon to brief journalists, Congressional staff, and other Washington audiences, Mr. Taleblu has testified before the U.S. Congress and Canadian Parliament.
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Mike Pompeo just gave the Iran speech Kerry should have given
Jonathan Schanzer ; 21st May 2018 - New York Post
In his first major speech as secretary of state — a searing 20-minute stemwinder — Mike Pompeo on Monday laid out the new US strategy toward Iran, following President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Pompeo unveiled Washington’s plan to deploy intense economic warfare against the Islamic Republic until it halts a wide range of nuclear and non-nuclear activity. But the speech was more than just that; it was the one Pompeo’s predecessor, John Kerry, should have delivered in 2013.
Kerry, of course, was the nation’s top diplomat when America announced its interim deal with Iran that year. To reward the mullahs merely for coming to the table, he said the United States would pay hundreds of millions of dollars in blackmail to the Islamic Republic — the world’s most prolific state sponsor of terrorism — in exchange for a temporary and reversible halt to its nuclear activity.
Fast forward two years, and Kerry bound America to a more permanent arrangement, offering more than $150 billion in blackmail, while recklessly agreeing to limits on Iran that would expire within a decade. Worse, Kerry failed to address issues like missiles, terrorism and other malign activity that Iran carries out to destabilize the Middle East. We were told it was the best deal we could get.
Pompeo on Monday put an end to all that. He declared that his goal was to return to “the global consensus” before the deal.
No longer will the United States tolerate Iran’s rogue behavior, which he detailed. This includes Iran’s quest for the bomb, but also the support Iran has been providing to terrorist groups in Yemen (the Houthis), Syria and Iraq (Shi’ite militias and Hezbollah) and the Gaza Strip (Hamas).
Pompeo vowed to “crush” these proxies and declared that Iran would never get a nuclear bomb. “Not now, not ever.”
The new secretary announced that the US Treasury would unleash “the strongest sanctions in history,” unless the regime in Tehran yields. If it doesn’t, Pompeo warned, the regime will “be battling to keep its economy alive.”
Good for him. Fact is, this is the only kind of language — and policy —that could get Iran to change course.
In short, the objective is what it should’ve been in 2013 —to put Iran’s leaders to a fundamental choice: Face a withering campaign of sanctions, led by the United States and increasingly adopted by its allies, or engage in constructive diplomacy that ultimately puts the Islamic Republic on a path toward peaceful coexistence with the United States, the broader Middle East and the rest of the world.
And this is not based on a vague notion of peace. Pompeo delineated a dozen areas where the Iranians need to fall in line. In exchange, he said, the Trump administration would agree to the “re-establishment of full diplomatic and commercial relations.”
Critics will rightly point out that the Iranians, reeling from Trump’s decision, are not likely to rush to the negotiating table. To save face, they need to find some negotiating leverage. And that leverage traditionally comes from malign activities, such as nuclear advances, missile tests or destabilizing the Middle East.
But the Iranians are now racing against the clock. Their currency, the rial, has been in a free-fall since the president announced his withdrawal from the deal. Inflation is through the roof.
True, the Iranian economy was already tanking, thanks to mismanagement by the regime, and this has sparked public protests in recent months.
But Trump’s sanctions have accelerated the decline, and it’s now safe to say that whatever economic improvement the 2015 nuclear deal may have yielded has effectively vanished. In this way, even before sanctions are fully implemented, the new policy is already making an impact.
Critics also point out that we can’t do this alone. The Europeans, in particular, are still stinging from Trump’s withdrawal from the deal. The Chinese and Russians are also not pleased, given the time and effort they invested in it. All are now considering plans to work around US restrictions on trade with Iran. And Pompeo offered little to indicate that they will acquiesce.
But never underestimate the fear that can be sown by American sanctions. Ours is still the most important economy in the world. And as long as it is, the United States is right to use that as leverage to get a meaningful deal with Iran.
Pompeo made it clear that this is America’s strategy. It’s the strategy we always should have pursued.
Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism-finance analyst for the US Department of the Treasury, is senior vice president at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow Jonathan on Twitter @JSchanzer. Follow the Foundation for Defense of Democracies on Twitter @FDD. FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
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Hour Three
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: Not only has Hamas pointed out not only that 80% of those killed at the Gaza border were Hamas mil, but that most of its funding comes from Hezbollah.
Morocco: Iran is sending in rockets and supporting Polisario; Morocco arrested a Hezbollah mil op and sent him to the US.
Turkish tourism – was a secular and liberal state until Erdogan.Gicing money to incitement work in East Jerusalem; supporting PA to go to the criminal court in den Haag; recruiting youth to demos. The Religious Affairs Directorate sent out an annoucement about the importance of martyrdom for Turkey! Gave a large number of $500 checks in East Jerusalem nominally as a Ramadan gift
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 3, Block B: General Yossi Kuperwasser, in re: Gaza. The F35 successful . . . SS5? . . . Not all the F#%’s abilities are yet capable. Iran is [in effect backing down a smidgeon]. Russians have an S300 and an S400 they boast about; the former is in Syria; available to Syrian forces? They talk about it but have decided not to supply it to the Syrians themselves – both because Israel will defend itself, and because they’re aware of the meaning of using e F35; were Russians [and Syrians] to deploy [too-strong] weapons, that might occasion powerful Israeli retaliation. Gazans have had almost enough of Hamas, whose leadership lives high on the hog and who entirely uselessly caused about 100 Gazans to be killed. Never forget tha the point of all that was to cause Israel to cease to exist.
Hezbollah & Iranian money has been operating in Gaza. [You bet.] A thank-you to Qassem Suleimani.
https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-leader-gaza-yahya-sinwar-we-are-coordinating-hizbullah-iran-almost-daily-basis
https://www.weeklystandard.com/elliott-abrams/the-real-palestinian-catastrophe
https://www.apnews.com/f6fea39743c44a3db9bda350ebb4eadf/Palestinian-foreign-minister-asks-ICC-to-investigate-Israel
https://www.weeklystandard.com/elliott-abrams/the-real-palestinian-catastrophe
Brig.-Gen.(res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center. He was formerly Director General of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence.
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 3, Block C: Michael Auslin, FDD, in re: Korean-US relations
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 3, Block D: Veronique de Rugy, Mercatus Center, in re: Trade talk, US-China, US-North Korea; Pres Trump.
Hour Four
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 4, Block A: 1956: The World in Revolt, by Simon Hall
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 4, Block B: 1956: The World in Revolt, by Simon Hall
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 4, Block C: Code Warriors: NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union, by Stephen Budiansky
Thursday 24 May 2018 / Hour 4, Block D: Code Warriors: NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union, by Stephen Budiansky
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