Image, left: Ludwig von Mises crest.  Prediction markets (also known as predictive markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives, or virtual markets) are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is. A prediction market contract trades between 0 and 100%. It is a binary option that will expire at the price of 0 or 100%.
Research has suggested that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
Economic theory for the ideas behind prediction markets can be credited to Friedrich Hayek in his 1945 article "The Use of Knowledge in Society" and Ludwig von Mises in his "Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth". Modern economists agree that Mises' argument combined with Hayek's elaboration of it, is correct ("Biography of Ludwig Edler von Mises (1881–1973)," The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics). One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Markets, introduced during the 1988 U.S. presidential election.[2] The Hollywood Stock Exchange, a virtual market game established in 1996 and now a division of Cantor Fitzgerald, LP, in which players buy and sell prediction shares of movies, actors, directors, and film-related options, correctly predicted 32 of 2006's 39 big-category Oscar nominees and 7 out of 8 top category winners. HedgeStreet, designated in 1991 as a market and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, enables Internet traders to speculate on economic events.
Around 1990 at Project Xanadu, Robin Hanson used the first known corporate prediction market. Employees used it in order to bet on, for example, the cold fusion controversy.  . . .    In 2015, decentralized prediction markets have been in development. These platforms utilize blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to enable global betting. Augur has raised over $4 million USD in crowdfunding for further development on the platform, making it one of the top 25 crowdfunded projects of all time.
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal Editorial Board & host of Opinion Journal on WSJ Video. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block A: Salena Zito, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, in re: Pennsylvania primaries.  _  jumped 27 percentage points to a statistical tie with D Trump, of whom 17 are tied to voters in their CD (candidate gets 3 delegates for each CD), but the rest are entirely unbound even on the first ballot; 54 walk in as free agents. They'll never commit to any candidate till the first ballot is done.  Several kinds of voters in the collar counties, _ and soccer moms, The rest of the state is blue-collar GOP – working class and middle class; old-fashioned Reagan Democrats.   . . .  Reagan: Drew Lewis was a Ford man; next go-round, he supported Reagan.   . . . Scott Walker in Wisconsin: Outside of Madison and Milwaukee, it's very religious and conservative. 
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:   Edward Hayes, Esq; criminal defense attorney par excellence; in re:   . . .  total liberty and no security, or a police state where New York is locked down like a European city . Can we find a middle ground?   What's going bon here? The problem is not the people who are panicking – the problem is those who aren’t. So many people now killed, maimed for life, psychologically scarred. ISIS isn't a danger only to us – they burned the Jordanian pilot alive in a steel cage!
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re:  . . . Pres Obama in Cuba. “An end to the Cold War,”  where 90% of the money that flows into Cuba goes to the Castros.   The key is to get economic activity going among average Cubans so they can open their own small businesses.  Throw the gates wide open if you open them at all.    (1 of 2)
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Kori Schake, Hoover, in re:  The Obama foreign policy, and through the filter of the Jeffrey Goldberg piece in The Atlantic.  “liberating” for the president when he decided that his term would no longer be significant. His backing away from the redline he set – if Assad used chemical weapons – led to massive disaster.  Do not impute reason to the president’s thinking – which is composed of narcissism and self-delusion.  “I no longer felt constrained by a Washington establishment that criticized my decisions"  - entirely self-referential.  Susan Rice: “It was never about stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon; it was just to fend it off for a few years."  Pres Obama holds that before his arrival, America was a force for evil, not for good, in the world.  Weirdly passive and dissociative for the leader of the Free World.   He takes no responsibility for his actions: “Calling ISIS a JV team was using the words of a general; not my fault.”  Pres Obama seems to approach the notion of revolution as a spiritual moment that he honors more than democracy. – KS: “This is the socialism of the faculty lounge : never did military service, never faced violent times.  He has an academic’s appreciation for the romanticization of all this.”  Mrs Clinton speaking at Stanford decried the danger of ISIS, but came down on the other side – all of this needs to be achieved without ground troops. Magickal thinking.  I was struck by the total absence of any public support for Mr Obama’s foreign thinking.   ----He brought Israel and Saudis and Egypt and Jordan and Cyprus all together. Amazing. (2 of 2)
 
Hour Two
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block A:  Congressman Engel, Ranking Member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee; in re: Iran; terrorism; Pres Obama in Cuba. JCPOA, Iran’s weapons transfers, ballistic missiles, et al.  Ed Royce and I work closely together; we’re the most bipartisan committee in Congress because politics end at the water’s edge.  About the Iran deal: no matter what it said, it’d give Iran a huge amount of money in the midst of a desperately bad economy – but they found enough cash to be the world’s largest sponsor of state terrorism.   To boot, it doesn't prevent Iran from obtaining nukes —just puts it off for a few years.  I don’t care if we use new sanctions or old sanctions – just need to have some adequate ones in place.   Iran is now buying intl companies to get access to extraordinary materiel and weaponry.  Sen Corker and Sen Carden are trying to figure this out, too.  We need not to be fooled by their intentions —four days after the deal was signed, they were yelling “Death to America!”
http://engel.house.gov/index.cfm?sectionid=24&itemid=4375 ·        http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/us-should-use-sector-based-econ... ·         http://www.haaretz.com/misc/article-print-page/.premium-1.709218    ... http://freebeacon.com/national-security/congress-calls-for-full-funding-... ·  http://www.aei.org/publication/brussels-attacks-is-this-the-new-normal/?... ·         http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7677/belgium-jihadists ·         http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ap-isis-has-trained-400-fighters-for-european-bloodshed/
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block B:  Dr. Aykan Erdemir, former member of the Turkish Parliament (2011-2015); served in the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee, EU Harmonization Committee, and the Ad Hoc Parliamentary Committee on the IT Sector & the Internet. He is an outspoken defender of pluralism, minority rights, and religious freedoms in the Middle East; in re: Turkey and the attacks; in r: Pres Erdogan – Turkey has had seven suicide attacks; hundreds of visitors killed; proxy war with Russia, Iran and Syria; cracking down on dissidents, media, businesses; and bombing Kurds.   “Compartementalization strategy” – Turkey had some good relations with Russia, but the happy times are gone.  Direct confrontation.  Main issue for the Turkish govt now is not ISISI but the PKK – the govt prefers ISIS to the Kurds.    Almost three million Syrian refugees now in Turkey, but lately it's seeing that its refugee policy is not sustainable – human and security consequences.  The main loser will be Turkey’s democracy. EU turns a blind eye to Erdogan’s excesses, his one-man rulership, so a further decline of the rule of law, could lead to new waves of Turkish and Kurdish asylum-seekers into the EU! This cannot be solved at he Turkish-Greek border; it's coming from Syria.   Expect new waves of refugees. Erdogan is now more powerful and less popular than ever.
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block C:  Joesph Humire, exec dir, International Freedom Educational Center; in re:  Argentina. Hezbollah in Latin America.  Bilateral relations discussion between Pres Obama and Argentine govt – a lot was missing from the trip.  Impact on Argentine-Iran relations? Or Venezuela? Pres Macri is trying to undo ten years of bad policy in ten months – but Iran is still a problem.  Eke Venezuela.  Now that Iran has more capital, it in tends to invest in Venezuela.  Return of former intell chief in Argentina:  it was one of the most professional counterterrorism forces in the region, stemming in part from the AMIA building being blown up in 1993.   Pres Cristina Kirchner implicated in the murder of the chief prosecutor. Alberto Nisman, who was investigating the mass murder from AMIA (and when Nisman was killed, a major Iranian op was in town).     People of Buenos Aires follow this investigation, but the more time goes by, the harder it’ll be to prosecute. Kirchner did everything she could to bring in a cloud of smoke and mirrors.  Hezbollah in other Latin American nations?  Iran is stronger now in its ability to establish legitimacy in South America.  Iran uses commerce as a cover for its intell operations. In Brazil, in high-level talks with Iran.   Iranians shuttling from Buenos Aires to Montevideo , Uruguay (a two-hour ferry trip).  Look for Iranians to be implicated in Alberto Nisman’s murder.    The Argentine intell service is currently fragmented – Kirchner tried to destroy it. 
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 2, Block D:  Omri Ceran, Managing Director for Press and Strategy at The Israel Project (TIP); in re: Iran, new sanctions. Obama Adm sold the Iran deal to Congress, it said that all the other sanctions would stay in place. Iran didn’t wait five minutes, demands ds to clear dollars and access the American greenback- which was said never to have been oat of the deal.  Access to financial mkts wd be a game-changer.  It's not a concession, it's a capitulation.     There were sanctions relieved that were nuclear, as well as others not relieved that were to be kept on, so Iran is crying loudly, declaiming the existing sanctions.  In the interest of preserving the deal the Obama Adm is capitulating , will shred the rest of the agreement.  Soon to see the end of all sanction on Iran – and lift restrictions on European banks.   Obama Adm re-named different sanctions in order to make additional gifts to Iran.  . . .  Washington Free Beacon got a letter two weeks ago: “For two years we've been secretly making deals with Iran – not concessions, but as a way to bld the relations in a way with which the overwhelming majority of Americans and Congress disagree.”
 
Hour Three
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block A:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents; in re: Brussels attack was related to the Paris attack of last year – interlocking citizenry of Muslim extraction whose ancestors came to Europe, raised families in neighborhoods isolated from the larger population, and their children are being radicalized by Internet and imams who are preaching violence.  I hear that the Euro intell services have more info than they acknowledge but are penetrated by ISIS. ISIS looks fro persons raised in France with Euro passports – not to kill as many people as possible, but to set in place as many pertains as possible. Intell knew about the airport and subway attacks in advance, refuse to share info with other nations.   The jihadists are Europeans, moving to disrupt European culture. Next/soon: Russia.  The John Batchelor Show started warning about this three years ago,  Academy Award goes to Euro officials for acting surprised.   UN rapporteur: a Canadian who has along history of unusual views – “9/11 was caused by global inequities.”  On the UN website, mention of every victim but none of Israelis murdered.   Syria, Iran, and around the world: massive human rights violations – but no mention of these, only a comprehensive criticism of Israel   . . .  Iran aggressively humiliated American sailors. Anti-BDS legislation: govermor of Colorado and Virginia Genl Assmbly passed laws - along with five other states – to condemn Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions.
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Tal Shalev, diplomatic correspondent, i24news (Israel’s foreign affairs & internal political & security developments); in re: AIPAC conference.
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Paul Roderick Gregory, Hoover & Forbes, in re: http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/03/22/donald-trumps-foreign-policy-plan-would-give-putiForbes Welcomen-exactly-what-he-wants/#1c66e29d1806
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Josh Rogin, Bloomberg View, in re: How Russia Is 'Weaponizing' Migration to Destabilize Europe.  Some officials in Europe see Russia's hand in the rising migration crisis, accusing the Kremlin of exacerbating anti-Muslim sentiment to benefit right-wing parties at a fragile moment for the European Union.  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-24/how-russia-is-weaponizing-migration-to-destabilize-europe
Hour Four
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block A:  Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re:  Fuel for Russia’s nuclear space engine   The competition heats up: According to Russian press sources, the first fuel for that country’s nuclear space engine project has now been delivered to Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear energy corporation.
The article is very unclear whether this space engine is a nuclear power plant similar to those used by NASA’s deep space Voyager, Pioneer, and Cassini probes, or whether it is a real nuclear-powered engine designed to provide thrust. Russia has never launched a probe with the former, so that would be an advancement for them, but it would not be a game-changer in the exploration of the solar system. If the latter, however, it will give them the capability no one else has to travel quickly and more efficiently to other worlds. Based on a careful rereading of the article, I suspect the former.
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block B:  Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: Vostochny begins practicing launch procedures  The competition heats up: Dress rehearsals have begun for the first Soyuz rocket launch at Russia’s new spaceport Vostochny, scheduled sometime this spring. They have not announced an official launch date yet.
If all tests go as scheduled, the launch vehicle will be removed from the launch pad on March 25 and returned to its processing facility for the final assembly with its payloads, including Lomonosov, Aist-2D and Kontakt-Nanosputnik satellites, which will be delivered into orbit during the first mission from Vostochny. The State Commission overseeing the launch will be making decision on the date of the first liftoff based on the results of the tests, the readiness of the launch facilities and the completion of safety measures for the launch personnel, Roskosmos said.
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block C:  Patrick Tucker Defense One, in re:  The Pentagon Wants to Buy That Bomb You’re Building in the Garage DARPA will pay tinkerers to weaponize off-the-shelf items — in hopes of defending against such hacks.
Can you rig your toaster into an improvised explosive device or turn a cheap hobby drone into a weapon of mass destruction? The Pentagon would love to hear from you. On Friday, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, announced that they would award money to people who can turn consumer electronics, household chemicals, 3-D printed parts, cheap drones or other “commercially available technology” into the next improvised weapon.
“For decades, U.S. national security was ensured in large part by a simple advantage: a near-monopoly on access to the most advanced technologies. Increasingly, however, off-the-shelf equipment developed for the transportation, construction, agricultural and other commercial sectors features highly sophisticated components, which resourceful adversaries can modify or combine to create novel and unanticipated security threats,” the agency wrote in a press release announcing the Improv program.  . . . 
Thursday  24 March 2016 / Hour 4, Block D:  Patrick Tucker Defense One, in re:  . . . The broad agency announcement, or BAA, puts almost no limit on the scope of the technology that engineers can use in their exploration. It’s an unusual BAA, as they go, specifically designed to catch the attention not just of favored defense contractors but also “skilled hobbyists.” So get your mad scientist hat out, but don’t break the law.
“Proposers are free to reconfigure, repurpose, program, reprogram, modify, combine, or recombine commercially available technology in any way within the bounds of local, state, and federal laws and regulations. Use of components, products, and systems from non-military technical specialties (e.g., transportation, construction, maritime, and communications) is of particular interest,” the BAA says.
Also, don’t just mail your toaster bomb in and expect your reward. The program has three phases. First, submit a plan for your prototype and, if DARPA likes it, or rather, finds it terrifying enough, they’ll give you $40,000. A smaller number of participants will be selected to go on to phase two where they will build their device or system with $70,000 more in possible funding. The top candidates here will go on to a final phase for a more in-depth analysis of their invention or system, a big military demo of how your device or system could give the military a very bad day.
It’s not the first time that DARPA has tried to get into the minds of would-be attackers by offering financial reward. Case in point: the Prediction Analysis Market, or PAM, which was an online prediction casino for the intelligence community. The 9/11 attacks exposed what some called a lack of imagination among the intelligence community. PAM allowed operatives as well as informants or sources within the broader intelligence community to bet on the likelihood of assassinations, coups, and other events of geopolitical importance. The project, conceived of by retired Rear Adm. John Poindexter, was canceled after lawmakers called it “grotesque” and some argued that it might actually inspire the very plots it had been designed to predict.
Time has since vindicated the use of prediction markets and other, sometimes controversial, red-teaming efforts to roleplay potential adversaries. Improv is only the latest.
“DARPA often looks at the world from the point of view of our potential adversaries to predict what they might do with available technology,” program manager John Main said in the release on Friday. “Historically we did this by pulling together a small group of technical experts, but the easy availability in today’s world of an enormous range of powerful technologies means that any group of experts only covers a small slice of the available possibilities. In Improv we are reaching out to the full range of technical experts to involve them in a critical national security issue.”
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