Photo, left: Magnificent work of ethnic minorities in Iran: interior of Vank Cathedral, New Julfa, Isfahan
 
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 1, Block A:  Sarah Westwood, Washington Examiner, in re: Mrs Clinton's errant email of Special Access Program messages (a level higher than Top Secret).  Impossible for these to end up in an insecure email by accident.  The Inspector-General's letter:  Mrs C on CNN this evening; did the IG leak or falsify this info as part of a political attack?  I have no information on that and no reason to think so. Many more emails to be processed.  Jim Hanson, exec VP for the Center for Security Policy:  this is a growing scandal because SA document ever outside of a SCIF (sensitive compartmentalized information facility) suggests illegality.  SCIF is informationally sealed to the nth degree. You may read hard copy and make notes but not even your notes  - let alone a thumb drive - may leave the room. Nothing! For even the most minor of unintentional errors, the Pentagon and others come down like a ton of bricks.   . . .
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 1, Block B:  Paul Vigna, WSJ, in re: bitcoin. http://www.wsj.com/articles/is-bitcoin-breaking-up-1453044493
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 1, Block C: McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, in re: while McKay was temporarily stuck as Mr Trump's guest at Mar a Lago in 2014, the host said that he was sure that Romney had lost because he was Mormon.  After a while, McKay felt obliged to mention that he, himself, was an LDS member – and the host graciously turned on a dime to praise the LDS.  . . .  Mr Trump recently gave a speech to Jews; "You won't like me because I don't want your money . . .  I'm like you – I'm a good negotiator."  Nakedly stereotypical remarks that draw on anti-Jewish tropes; the businessman from New York manages to make it work for him.  "The Bible is better than The Art of the Deal.  I tell everyone that Art of the Deal is my second-favorite book." this is now part of his stump speech, incl to Liberty University. "Nervous-making." A strange tic he's working into every speech now. The Gospel According to Trump http://tinyurl.com/zfwa3at
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 1, Block D: Arif Rafiq, National Interest; in re:  Pakistan has a motive – PM and army chief & ___ were in Riyadh & Teheran this week to "help ease tension" 'twixt the two.  . . . Nat gas pipeline from Iran; and China: Pakistan is bldg in concern w China an economic corridor, from the Arabian Sea to China. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/can-pakistan-broker-iran-saudi-d%C3%A9tente-14972
Pakistan has, quite remarkably, avoided entanglement in the Iran-Saudi Arabia cold war. I think it's a testament to Pakistan's diplomatic finesse and an indicator of the declining influence of Saudi Arabia. We are in a time of precedent-breaking in the greater Middle East. The smart ones take shelter as the storm hits.
 
Hour Two
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 2, Block A: Ahmed Farouk, Consul General of Egypt in New York; in re:  . . . Egyptian parliament convenes on _ 10, resolve many remaining questions, assuage the fear of the Egyptian society.  Econo0my: leadership is focussing on economic improvement, incl mega projects, parallel waterway to Suez canal, plus road networks and new adm capital, and an Italian firm made a giant gas discovery. The 2016 GDP growth will be 4.4%. Dangers from Libya, incl ISIS, and in the Sinai – also ISIS. Libya: turmoil, and it divided into many groups; we hoped for stability, but during the state of chaos we found it necessary to secure our border.  After collapse of Gaddafi regime, his huge armamentarium fell into random hands, so we now are securing that long border. Sinai: imagine the volume – 25,000 sq mi.  ISIS doesn't actually posses one inch or fly its flag; rather it hides in mountains. The Egyptian military is controlling it well, although danger exists.  ISIS smuggles stuff.  Gaza and Sinai?  Egypt has done its utmost to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people; note 2014 conference on reconstructing Palestine. Still, the smuggling tunnels cannot continue, as no long-term, sustainable economy can be based on smuggling through tunnels. We found thousands of tunnels with cigarettes food car, cars, weapons radicals, terrorists.  Have to secure one's own home.  Egypt is open for tourism for the heritage of humanity.  It's everyone's dream to go. Twenty per cent of Egyptian population – 20 million – depend on tourism.  Egypt is as safe as France is.   http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-brotherhood-breaks-down
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 2, Block B: Professor Brenda Shaffer, specialist on energy and foreign policy, energy security policies, Azerbaijan, the Caucasus, Caspian energy and Eastern Mediterranean energy issues; currently is Visiting Researcher at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies (CERES); in re: Iranian minority groups. The Iranian economy is very bad for normal people.  We speak of Persian music, food, et al. In fact, Iran is 50% not-Persian ethnic minorities; most are concentrated near national borders, with co-ethnic groups on the other side of the border. Ali Khamenei is openly very ill with cancer. . . . Whenever something bad happens, the regime claims "the hardliners did it." Hah!
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 2, Block C: Ilan Berman, VP, American Foreign Policy Council in Washington; in re: Iranians are very active in cyberspace; several years ago, had the third-largest blogosphere in the world after China; the regime is growing its ominous cyberpower.  WWIII can be fought in cyberspace – disable nuclear reactors, shut down enemy comms.  China focusses on espionage; Russia: to facilitate black-mkt activities; and Iran: able to go into the US electrical grid, map systems, and take down vital institutions  (incl Aramco, Goldman, Bank of America, et al.)  If Iran goes to war with the West, this will be an arena of conflict.  Recall Stuxnet, which took 10% of Iran's centrifuges offline – which caused Iran to know that this was war, and Iran has been mobilizing ever since.  In 2013, cooperation between Iran and Venezuela in this.  Not need to bld armies – can buy cyberweapons on the open market, and DPRK, among others, sells them. Phishing expedition. . . . On the day of the Iran deal, the DNI testified that a hack of Sheldon Adelson was from Iran.  Training centers are recruiting young people from many countries and training them for cyberwarfare. These capacities are modular, can be bought and installed.  OPM hack: Chinese hackers; Iran is ever more likely to be able to replicate that.
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 2, Block D: Omri Ceren, a political blogger: Mere Rhetoric; came to intl attention when he found & published the fact that Human Rights Watch military analyst Marc Garlasco was an "avid collector" of Nazi memorabilia; in re: $1.7 bil and 21 criminals in the exchange.  The WH has gone out of its way to say that Iran has no idea of what militia may have taken Americans hostage. In fact, it was an Iranian militia that took them to Sadr City.  US president pardoned Iranian criminal s being held for sanctions-busting ad dropped 14 people off the Interpol red list, incl top officials from Iran air: they take arms to Iraq daily; and provided $1.7 bil ransom ("old-school ransom") to Iran for the hostages.  The combination for these three simply encourages Iran to take more hostages. The Iranian regime is expansionist, Millennarian, and intends to obliterate the state of Israel.   Mahan Air is essential to Assad; E. Ottolenghi daily posts on each flight. 
 
Hour Three
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents; in re: First anniversary of the murder of Alberto Nisman in Argentina by persons trying to conceal the perpetrators of the AMIA mass-murders. This eventually will lead to a senior Iranian agent in Buenos Aires then; analysts say that's Velayati, a lifelong friend of Valerie Jarrett.  Russian warships in the Eastern Med, a permanent presence: from the Kolya Peninsula? and from the Pacific, w long-range antiship missiles and antiaircraft, torpedoes, landmines, and the like.  Seems that Iran's cash windfall is already spreading into the West Bank, Lebanon (Nasrallah's son). Iran's election: voters alienated by the broken economy?
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Malcolm Hoenlein, in re: new sanctions against Iran? What are these? Agreement already reached allow for addtl sanctions; these are not nuclear-related.  Human rights violation, executions. aggression regionally and in South American, Africa, Asia, globally. Iran is the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism. Libya, Sinai; the Ikhwan is a protected species of predator,  safe in Turkey.  Egypt would like to see a much more robust American presence in hte region.  No coverage in the US; but in Libya with the growth of ISIS in Sirte – about 5,000 troops there – is a matter of deep concern in Greece, Italy, Europe.  Border between Egypt and Libya, 1700 mi; and a similar problem on the Sudanese border. Bearing a natl security burden for the region that no one could sustain. 
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Richard A Epstein, Hoover, in re: With the hotly contested Iowa primaries only a week away, the level of political polarization is higher than it’s been in decades. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are veering sharply to the populist left, each championing democratic socialism. On the Republican side, the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz reveals the rise of a muscular conservatism that appeals to the far right. By November, this political divide will become more pronounced. One area of contention between the two parties is domestic policy. The two Democratic frontrunners are pushing for higher taxes, more income redistribution, and more extensive regulation. On these issues, the Republican candidates offer a more pro-growth agenda, but do so only in muted terms. If Republicans want to win in November, they must boldly articulate an alternative to the progressive populism of Clinton and Sanders...  http://www.hoover.org/research/why-democrats-could-win-2016 (1 of 2)
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Richard A Epstein, Hoover, in re: With the hotly contested Iowa primaries only a week away, the level of political polarization is higher than it’s been in decades. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are veering sharply to the populist left, each championing democratic socialism. On the Republican side, the rise of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz reveals the rise of a muscular conservatism that appeals to the far right. By November, this political divide will become more pronounced. One area of contention between the two parties is domestic policy. The two Democratic frontrunners are pushing for higher taxes, more income redistribution, and more extensive regulation. On these issues, the Republican candidates offer a more pro-growth agenda, but do so only in muted terms. If Republicans want to win in November, they must boldly articulate an alternative to the progressive populism of Clinton and Sanders... http://www.hoover.org/research/why-democrats-could-win-2016 (2 of 2)
  
Hour Four
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 4, Block A: Dan Henninger, WSJ, in re: http://www.wsj.com/articles/13-hours-its-political-1453335964
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 4, Block B: Bradley Peniston, Defense One, in re:  Laying in a course change to meet a newly belligerent Russia and still-rising China. Ask Ray Mabus about the tenets of naval power, and the first word out of the Navy secretary’s mouth is “presence.” As in: that unique ability of haze-gray warships, freely plying the world’s oceans, to show the flag, reassure allies, deter adversaries, and when necessary, rain destruction on enemies.
Presence requires numbers, and so Mabus has spent much of his six-plus years as secretary working to reverse the post-Cold War shrinking of the fleet, largely through creative contracting and by persuading Congress to buy new ships in bulk. But in recent weeks, his customary mantra has been interrupted — first bluntly by Defense Secretary Ash Carter and then tacitly by his own chief of naval operations, Adm. John Richardson.
Carter, in less than a year on the job, has declared loudly and often that future military superiority depends on the furious pursuit of advanced technology, even at the cost of scuttling carefully laid plans to buy ships. Defense officials had whispered for months about Carter’s growing impatience with Mabus’ apparent refusal to take the hint, and in December the SecDef lowered the boom, cancelling the last dozen of the Navy’s planned 52 littoral combat ships and ordering a host of other spending changes. Just days into the New Year, CNO Richardson piled on, delivering a strategic vision that omits all mention of “presence.” Instead, the Navy’s top admiral emphasizes warfighting: the ability to take on any adversary and win.
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 4, Block C: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: World View gets incentives to settle in Arizona  The competition heats up: The space tourism balloon company World View has obtained $15 million in subsidies from an Arizona county to base their operation in Tucson. Today’s go-ahead from the Pima County Board of Supervisors represents an initial step toward setting up the tourist operation. The supervisors voted to invest $15 million, backed by future tax revenue, to build the spaceport. World View would lease the facility from the county over a 20-year term to pay back the investment. The facility would include a launch pad, headquarters building and manufacturing facility, World View said.
Increasingly it looks as though Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo is being left in the dust as other companies move forward with their own plans. (1 of 2)
Thursday  21  January 2016 / Hour 4, Block D: Robert Zimmerman, behind the black, in re: World View gets incentives to settle in Arizona  The competition heats up: The space tourism balloon company World View has obtained $15 million in subsidies from an Arizona county to base their operation in Tucson. Today’s go-ahead from the Pima County Board of Supervisors represents an initial step toward setting up the tourist operation. The supervisors voted to invest $15 million, backed by future tax revenue, to build the spaceport. World View would lease the facility from the county over a 20-year term to pay back the investment. The facility would include a launch pad, headquarters building and manufacturing facility, World View said.
Increasingly it looks as though Virgin Galactic’s SpaceShipTwo is being left in the dust as other companies move forward with their own plans. (2 of 2)