Assad agrees to let ISIS slaughter Druze and Ismailis in exchange for allowing free passage of water and gasoline to Damascus. See Hour 3, Block B, Pinhas Inbari.
Painting, left: Ismail I (July 17, 1487 – May 23, 1524), known in Persian as Shāh Ismāʿil, (Persian: شاه اسماعیل‎; full name: Abū l-Muzaffar Isma'il bin Haydar as-Safavī), was Shah of Iran (Persia) (1501) and the founder of the Safavid dynasty which survived until 1736. Isma'il started his campaign in Iranian Azerbaijan in 1500 as the leader of the Safaviyya, a Twelver Shia militant religious order, and unified all of Iran by 1509. Born in Ardabil, Iranian Azerbaijan, he was the king (shah) of the Safavid dynasty from 1501 to 1524.
JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW
Co-hosts: Mary Kissel, Wall Street Journal editorial board & host of OpinionJournal.com. Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents.
 
Hour One
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 1, Block A: Sam Tadros, Hudson Institute, in re: Fouad Ajami, deeply missed, a singular, lyrical writer an commentator. Believe Middle East problems were not imperialism or from outside, were the result of the deeds of those who live there.  In These Times, his most recent book.    ISIS butchering Egyptian police, Syria enshrouded in darkness, Mesopotamia in utter chaos.  We guess that Fouad would hold the troubles in Egypt to be central;  "The country may have lost its luster of old .. . .  but this time will be judged by what happens in Egypt" – the shaper of the Arab future.  Sinai [thugs] have given their allegiance to ISIS; another affiliated with al Q; a low-level insurgency fuelled by MB – throwing Molotov cocktails, burning police cars.  All these at the same time.  Syria is the Mecca of jihadists – multipe organizations, massive carnage Unseen before in our lifetimes. It;d talke a lot of US troops to end this, but we need a policy of US leadership that rallies local forces.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 1, Block B:  Harry Siegel, New York Daily News, in re: New York City's Mayor DeBlasio and the New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, held a verbal cook-off last week:  "It’s dangerous to call someone an unprincipled, vendetta-driven politician — especially if it’s true."  Two gangs, city and Albany – "an old Dem gang fight" – neither has very high approval ratings. Mayor said what mayors have always said privately, but never before in public: vindictive, transactional, not a good Democrat, and needs to learn to lead. DeBlasio used the word "vendetta," which alarmed the Italian-American Cuomo.  Cuomo was verbally evil to DeBlasio for fifteen months; DeBlasio took it on the chin, then finally responded.   Cuomo has always disliked DeBlasio, whom he sees as pretentious and taking the lead in the story, which suits Cuomo not at all.  The city crew is trying to purge Cuomo from the Democratic Party.  The mayor is all about expressing vision, whereas the guv is trying to organize peace between Dems and GOP in Albany. Hillary?  probably closer to Cuomo's views. Who needs Tammany Hall? We've got Cuomo and DeBlasio!
   Talking with New York Democrats about Gov. Cuomo, the party’s leader, animal cruelty comes up a lot.  Cuomo as butterfly-wing picker. Cuomo as poked bear. Cuomo as cat joyfully toying with his still-living prey.
   So progressives were exulting after Mayor de Blasio Tuesday spoke truth to power, as it were and as is his wont, about the state’s top Democrat. Finally responding to many months of slights, cheap shots and betrayals — culminating in Albany’s decision to extend mayoral control of city schools by just one year — he called Cuomo unprincipled, vindictive and no friend of New York City or the Democratic Party. Then the mayor went off the grid for a nine-day family vacation .
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 1, Block C: Mona Charen, syndicated columnist; Senior Fellow, Ethics & Public Policy Center; NRO; in re: The family: mom and dad, plus one or two children – what’s its status now? its future?  This traditional family is already  much in decline .  . . .  Data-slinging: not much available yet on attributes of same-sex families. Need to look at children raised from birth in a same-sex households. So far, of all the varieties of family structures that have been studied, nothing yet has come close to providing as much stability and [wholesomeness] as mother-plus-father.  . . . . Insofar a the Kennedy opinion praises marriage, OK; but once you concede that two fathers or two mothers are just as good, you're saying hat fathers don't matter, or mothers don't matter. Supreme Court said don't bother. Feminists averred that there's no important difference between men and women, invented the verb "to parent."  Undermines bond between children and each parent; dangerous.  . . .  Imagine 2065: who will speak of marriage – govts or religious organizations?  Govt counts because it's horning in as the Dept of Education and many others to define suitable behavior. . In Fairfax, VA, they're teaching that sexuality is a spectrum, sexual identify can be formed later in life. 
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 1, Block D:  Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, in re:  Chinese stock-market bubble; large number of informal margin calls; can securitize . . .
 
Hour Two
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 2, Block A: Andrew J. Tabler, Washington Institute, in re: Syria, Sinai, Hezbollah.  ISIS declares war on Hamas; works with Hamas, ISIS is moving into the West Bank (against Hamas); ISIS in Sinai.  ISIS butchers Egyptian police.  Extremely serious.  Does ISIS have the resources to take on Egypt, Israel, Hamas in Gaza?  Reason to worry.  State governments no longer control al their former territory.  ISIS spread into Sinai by "bandwagoning"  - following models that have been successful elsewhere, have local groups pledge allegiance to ISIS (in Sinai, Yemen, elsewhere).  Nile Valley has most of the population, but ISIS in Sinai is a red flag as Cairo doesn’t control its own territory.  Is the goal here territorial or to attack Egypt? Not sure; yes, it has outside help.  Sunni states aren't good at waging war against these groups, but Sunni society is.  Can this be contained or is it the wave of the future? Black-marketeering, kidnapping, oil: note that  ISIS is not a bunch of foreign funded cells; it's financially self-sustaining. It's a formidable threat.  Does ISIS control any oil in Sinai? Not yet, but Iraq and Syria selling both crude and refined , using refineries they're bldg now.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 2, Block B: Michael Doran. senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute; in re: Iran, Iran deal, Kerry, negotiations.  pres Obama: this deal is to be the essence of his foreign policy legacy; eke for John Kerry; both desperate for a deal. Hearing the pleasant ring of Nobel applause?  Best way to negotiate with Iran is to show a willingness to leave the table; instead, each time, the US [pants and drools] for a deal.  . . .  If I were the Iranians, I'd play the Americans on the deadline, which they regularly do. They play hardball and we make concessions. US uses bridge words. One thing this Administration has done well is to keep the whole thing secret. Surprised if they complete by 9 July – political decisions not yet made, esp, inspections any time-anywhere. Absent that, can’t finish the secret codicils. Even among its Allies, US has created an impetus to run toward Iran. Allies who advocated firmness with Teheran are now [cut off at the ankles] and being discriminated against in future Iranian business. Ben Rhodes says they all believe that this will moderate Iran's conduct.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 2, Block C:  Olli Heinonen, senior Fellow at Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; long at IAEA (deputy director of safeguards); in re: fundamental questions, start with anywhere/any time inspections: Iran has never permitted this, ever.  Anywhere: Need unfettered access to all territory, no sanctuary.  IAEA has this in all other nations, based on need.  Any time: deterrence.  Need not enough time for deception – move eqpt, for example. "We much be able to get in to every mil site" – does this weaken PMD (possible military dimensions)?  Access must be prompt or it's not meaningful. Have had this in South Africa for years. Iran has been in noncompliance often in the past.  Don't need to prove a need, merely to explain the reason.  Not a long process, merely say why you want to go to a certain place tomorrow. When this verification starts, e we need to set a baseline to know how many centrifuges and where; purpose of the experiments, how far did it go, what else needs to be done to complete? If these are not n the agreement, it'll have low value.  Parchin? We need to understand what experiments were there, an may need other inspections; this is one of many essential places.  Must have access to all places the IAEA deems necessary.  Extant 5,000 Natanz plus 1,000 in Fordow centrifuges: non-military dvpt?  I would prefer to see fewer.  Also, more advanced centrifuges right now, not necessarily accounted for; again reduces break-out time.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 2, Block D:  Malcolm Hoenlein, Conference of Presidents, in re: Sir Nicholas George Winton, d 2015 at the age of 106:  rescued hundreds of children ; celebrate him now.  For 50 yeas he kept his heroism secret. He was visiting in Prague when the Nazis invaded; he arranged a Kindertransport, took 669 children out via Holland (which was recalcitrant) to England and saved their lives. His wife found out by accident, he then agreed to let it be known.  Another transport with 250 children, who hit closed borders at "friendly" countries, and they perished.  See YouTube.  Yazidis today remind me of 1936 – refugees terrified, seeking refuge, turned away.  Abbas and coup attempt from within.  . . .  Nebulizer.   . . .
 
Hour Three
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 3, Block A:  Prof Eugene Kontorovich, Northwestern University School of Law; leading expert on maritime piracy, universal jurisdiction, and international criminal law; in re: BDS – boycott, divestment and sanctions; use as a talking-point against the state of Israel. State Dept has approved backing away from Congr legislation on BDS: language in the TPA passed unanimously by Senate and House, on companies that boycott good from Israeli territories. A few days after the resident signed the law, State said it doesn’t like it. Now that Pres Obama says that Western Jerusalem is not part of Israel, can’t . . . Fortunately, the law is merely implemented in part by the US Trade Rep, by courts. . . . Companies that  discriminate against the Jewish state.  The United Church of Christ: divest from co's that benefit from occupied territories.  Churches are being [manoeuvered] by Palestinian radicals. UCC hoped to create a chain reaction, but the Episcopalians and Mennonites refused.  South Carolina and Illinois say: If you give in to this, you'll lose all business from our state.  Churches that give in are also often detached from the goals and needs of their members. NGOs funded by European govts and Palestinians. BDS movement isn't building; it seems to be being exposed for what it is.
        News reports suggest that Iran may release the Maersk Tigris, which it has held for a week, in a few days – upon receiving payment from Maersk, the vessel’s charterer. It appears Iran is essentially seizing vessels for ransom, or charging a selective toll on transit through international straits. (The crew has reportedly just been released, but the ship is still detained.)
Iran purports to have seized the vessel to satisfy a debt. As I’ve explained, this argument fails on its own. Moreover, fundamental rules of international law prohibit the arrest of vessels in transit for the debts incurred on prior transits or by other vessels. This is codified in Art. 20(2) of the Convention on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, to which Tehran is a party . . . [more]
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 3, Block B: Pinhas Inbari, veteran Arab affairs correspondent, formerly reported for Israel Radio and Al Hamishmar newspaper; in re: Gentlemen's agreement between Assad/ISIS: Secret deal. ISIS got closer to Damascus, got control of channels providing Damascus with water and stopped the water supply.. They already controlled the oil fields.  Assad decided to cut a deal with ISIS: ISIS will allow water to go and gasoline from Syrian fields, in return Assad will withdraw from areas where he protects minorities, including Druze and Ismailis.   Both are important in the Syrian army.  ISIS is still far from the Golan, but al Nusrah (a compendium, itself) is there, is Sunni, while ISIS is Wahhabist Salafist. Nusrah in the north is connected with Turkey; in the south, connected with Jordan, and with Israel, which gives them medical  treatment if they do not attack Israel.  Two _ of the Druze community: a small area (al Hader) near the Israeli border, a village besieged by Nusrah; main place is Djebbah, exposed to the threat of ISIS which is not yet able to attack them.  By diplomacy, Israel is protecting Druze from attack near its border; the main community is in the zone of threat.
Israel acknowledges it is helping Syrian rebel fighters  Defense minister says Jerusalem assists insurgents in exchange for promise Druze will be kept out of harm’s way
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 3, Block C:  Gene Marks, Washington Post, in re:  US economy.  . .  General freight truck is amazing, has gone up 25% in the past year., with many independent operators.  Crowdfunding and online lending; Up to $50 mil is asy.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 3, Block D:   Peter Pullikan, Bloomberg Surveillance, in re: Fracking and resultant earthquakes
Hour Four
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 4, Block A:  Daniel Henninger, WSJ, in re: What Charleston Knows The churchgoers of Emanuel AME know some things a secularized society does not.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 4, Block B:  Tim Alberta, National Journal, in re: The Interesting Stuff Inside Jeb Bush's Tax Returns What decades of tax forms say about the Republican's skill at stock-picking, his surge in income, and a poorly timed sale of his NFL stake.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 4, Block C:  McKay Coppins, Buzzfeed, in re: Ted Cruz Knows How to Go Viral  —  Ted Cruz is a populist, so the first thing he does when he wakes up every morning is reach for the iPhone on his nightstand and scroll through his @ mentions on Twitter.  The cascading column of messages directed at the conservative firebrand is not exactly a hallelujah chorus.
Thursday 2 July  2015  / Hour 4, Block D:  Robert Zimmerman, behindtheblack.com, & author, Genesis, in re: Air Force sticks with SpaceX  The competition stays hot! The Falcon 9 launch failure this past weekend has not harmed SpaceX’s certification to launch military payloads, according to the Air Force.